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Ichimoku forever

  • #4,981
  • Oct 13, 2009 2:27am Oct 13, 2009 2:27am
Hello lbtrader, I don't understand your first long entry because it seems to be under the cloud ??
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  • #4,982
  • Oct 13, 2009 2:38am Oct 13, 2009 2:38am
lbtrader:
Thanks for your nice comparison.

How do you decide which chikou span points to use on the way up? You caught most of the down points for a trendline but didn't use any uptrendlines till the trade was in big profit. How do you know to ignore uptrend lines that would have closed your trade early?

Thanks and good trading....

Steve
  • #4,983
  • Oct 13, 2009 2:40am Oct 13, 2009 2:40am
Hi Bull,

Thanks for all your wise counsel on this forum, you have really helped newbies like me with your posts.

Please can you please help me with the indicator you use to display the Up and Down fractals as shown on your charts?

regards,

daysey


Quoting Bull
Yes Thierry, this is a Bullish Divergence Bar.

But you don't use these Bar for nothing.

I'm not into these trade, but take a look on the picture below, step by step:

First of all, look the trend, its clear bearish, Kumo sentiment and future are in red; price is below kumo and chikou span below price curve. After that we only looking for a SHORT.

Ok, now we've:[indent]Point 1: Bearish DV;
Point 2: Entry at open: 1.0528 (1 lot);
Point 3: New Entry - Break Down Fractal at 1.0510 (0.5 lot)
Point 4: New Down Fractal.
Point 5: New Up Fractal - Move...
  • #4,984
  • Edited 3:53am Oct 13, 2009 3:40am | Edited 3:53am
Quoting SanMiguel
Hi lb
How did you get the trendline for this re-entry, did you use the Ts bounce because there don't seem to be 2 troughs to form a trendline here:
Hi SM, remember what I mentioned earlier that those peaks and troughs are dynamic, in the sense that sometimes when you are watching the PA a peak or trough is forming only to become a straight line when the candle closes, and don't forget that what you are seing is candle close prices, so when this is forming you draw your line and wait, I showed an example few pages back of a short play which did not materialize and developped into a long play, my lines were drawn so I took the one that was most logical. in anycase, that line that you refer to is not a straight line and was broken at the point where I drew my line which was at the time a trough in formation.

Quoting Thierry89
Hello lbtrader, I don't understand your first long entry because it seems to be under the cloud ??
Thierry, although the entry is below the cloud, it is a weak bullish TS/KS cross, and I have mentioned in a previous illustration that this entry is risky and if one does not like it then he can wait for the kumo breakout which is a strong signal but in this particular case it was expected to retrace because of the flat kumo so a more conservative entry would have been after the bounce off the kumo.

Quoting stevewide
How do you decide which chikou span points to use on the way up?
Hi steve, the points that are used are the most suitable for entry early in the game, as you probably have noticed there are so many, I use mostly the most recent two peaks or troughs before the break, but if they are not suitable then I go back in time and use a more suitable level as in the second and third TL the origin of which goes back quite a distance (not shown in the picture).

Quoting stevewide
You caught most of the down points for a trendline but didn't use any uptrendlines till the trade was in big profit. How do you know to ignore uptrend lines that would have closed your trade early?
uptrend line? this is a long play, so you need to use downtrend lines to be broken, all of them were adequately placed and quite early I would say,either at or before the fractal signal. the only uptrend line that is shown here is the exit line at the double top which was then used as a re-entry for the countertrend move.
p.s., sorry I think I got your question now, the uptrend lines were not used because they were not broken, were they? so my lines would have been drawn, but if they don't break then the trend is still on and you carry with your trade and the line moved higher untill it's broken.
  • #4,985
  • Oct 13, 2009 3:56am Oct 13, 2009 3:56am
Quoting lbtrader
Hi SM, remember what I mentioned earlier that those peaks and troughs are dynamic, in the sense that sometimes when you are watching the PA a peak or trough is forming only to become a straight line when the candle closes, and don't forget that what you are seing is candle close prices, so when this is forming you draw your line and wait, I showed an example few pages back of a short play which did not materialize and developped into a long play, my lines were drawn so I took the one that was most logical. in anycase, that line that you refer to...
Hi lb - on your re-entry trades, is your SL still above the coud? Or might you use above the last fractal now?
  • #4,986
  • Oct 13, 2009 4:06am Oct 13, 2009 4:06am
Quoting SanMiguel
Hi lb - on your re-entry trades, is your SL still above the coud? Or might you use above the last fractal now?
Since this was not a fractal based trade, then I would not use the fractal yet (actually I'm still digesting the material), but not all entries as you've noticed coincide with fractals, so the answer is I would use the kumo first then the higher KS or whatever trailing method you would prefer.
I include the compiled overview of Bill Williams theory as a pdf file, enjoy.
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf Bill Williams Chaos Theory.pdf   132 KB | 3,401 downloads
  • #4,987
  • Edited 5:25am Oct 13, 2009 4:49am | Edited 5:25am
Quoting lbtrader
Since this was not a fractal based trade, then I would not use the fractal yet (actually I'm still digesting the material), but not all entries as you've noticed coincide with fractals, so the answer is I would use the kumo first then the higher KS or whatever trailing method you would prefer.
I include the compiled overview of Bill Williams theory as a pdf file, enjoy.
On re-entries, the kumo is going to be further away than you intial entry...usually anyway so the actual trade size becomes smaller on the re-entries?

For those that use fractals, do you use the actual fractal triangle as the entry or the low/high of the candle of the fractal? Reason I ask is that the fractal location is just a certain buffer below or above the candle dependent upon whatever spacing the indicator has specified - there's no more logic to it than that.
  • #4,988
  • Oct 13, 2009 6:14am Oct 13, 2009 6:14am
I am little bit confused. Whitch one is BUY fractal, which one is SELL fract..
Is the BUY fractal that one pointing UP his triangle? thanks
  • #4,989
  • Oct 13, 2009 6:54am Oct 13, 2009 6:54am
Quoting feri z kosic
I am little bit confused. Whitch one is BUY fractal, which one is SELL fract..
Is the BUY fractal that one pointing UP his triangle? thanks
Are you referring to UP Fractal? UP Fractal means its high is higher than prevous two bars high and later two bars high.
  • #4,990
  • Edited 7:14am Oct 13, 2009 7:03am | Edited 7:14am
Hello all, my big thanks to Vic for starting this thread, and thanks for all Kumo Warriours contribution. It is the best thread in FF I've seen.

I've spent most of my rest time in last week to read this thread. Now I am on half way, up to page 170. Very tired work and it is worth!!!

It seems quiet in US session. Are you most from Europe or Asia? I am from China and have a daily work. Normally just have time to trade in US Open. Hope to see you guys around at that time.

  • #4,991
  • Oct 13, 2009 7:12am Oct 13, 2009 7:12am
Quoting feri z kosic
I am little bit confused. Whitch one is BUY fractal, which one is SELL fract..
Is the BUY fractal that one pointing UP his triangle? thanks
For the standard indicator packaged with MT4, the buy fractal is pointing up and the sell fractal is pointing down. Fractal trading is a break-out system buying higher highs or selling lower lows when trend has been confirmed with the Alligator indicator in Bill Williams' setup.

I personally find fractals useful also to set stops (not reversals) at support/resistance in the timeframe used.
  • #4,992
  • Oct 13, 2009 8:27am Oct 13, 2009 8:27am
Quoting sinner-
kharvell, on your issue about "why does everyone need a signal" well, my main issue and obsession when it comes to trading is expectancy. I do not simply want to re-enter the trend on an almost arbitrary flat line and hope the price goes up. I would like to re-enter on the confirmation of the current wave: i.e. break of fractal. Lots of the newbies here have enough trouble, we are trying to increase the profit probability of their (AND OURS!) trades!
Quoting sinner-
The question is how do you define purist? I have done backtests and can prove Ichimoku has an extremely high positive expectancy for the following rules:

1. H1, H4 TF agree on trend, price above or below H1, H4 senkou A.
2. M15 cross in same direction as higher TF trend
3. Price inside Chikou span (Chikou span not inside price)
4. Exit on close above senkou A.

For the last 12 months there may have only been less than ten of those signals per pair. But when everything above lines up (purist) we are talking average 350 pip profit.

So back to the...
Quoting sinner-
Please don't take my post the wrong way kharvell, I really would like to see you continue to post here.
Hi sinner,

Good morning to you. There are a few things I'd like to say about these messages. I'm sad to see that you've resorted to a dick measuring contest with me ("If all you want is a bit of equilibrium and ob/os then I use 55EMA and 178MA on any chart to trade with probably a better expectancy than k (no offense again), and I don't need to use buy stops/sell limits to do it."). I have been posting for a couple of weeks in this thread and not once have I called myself BETTER than anyone. One thing about Forex Factory I've learned in my near 3 years here, is that people come and go, generally they are confident, and usually there is no proof in the pudding. Is this an accurate statement from your experience here? So if you say you can do something better than me, by all means, show us all, because that's why we're all here, right? To be better.

And don't give me any backtests either, because backtest trades are the easiest trades of all: you aren't really trading, your discipline isn't checked. You are deciding your S/L and T/P based on hindsight, which is a beautiful thing.

With regards to purism, who cares? If you are making money, you should be happy. Technically, what you have presented above is pure ichimoku, but who cares what you do as long as it profits?

What's the difference of Ichimoku and regular MA's? Well, Ichimoku takes the average of the high and low, while MA's usually take the average of close, though they can be configured otherwise. This to me, is more significant, as it takes all values into account. You might be right, the flat lines I base my trades on could be "arbitrary" points, but if I'm entering with the main trend, and I bought it at a good deal, I am not "hoping" for anything. I am fairly certain that the trend will continue in my favor. I have confidence in the trend.

Yes, my confidence is why I'm not going to sit and let you continue with the sneaky, sly remarks of my skill as a trader and my methods. In no way have I put your skills down, just show me the results if you're so much better than me.

Hoping for a better attitude,

Kevin
  • #4,993
  • Edited 8:51am Oct 13, 2009 8:42am | Edited 8:51am
Quoting sinner-
The question is how do you define purist? I have done backtests and can prove Ichimoku has an extremely high positive expectancy for the following rules:

1. H1, H4 TF agree on trend, price above or below H1, H4 senkou A.
2. M15 cross in same direction as higher TF trend
3. Price inside Chikou span (Chikou span not inside price)
4. Exit on close above senkou A.

For the last 12 months there may have only been less than ten of those signals per pair. But when everything above lines up (purist) we are talking average 350 pip profit.

So back to...
My Purist or mostly Purist reference was to Vics Ichi method as defined in the first few pages of this thread, and vics mantra,

Ichi is all you need, Ichi is all you need, Ichi is all you need.
Love is all you need, Love is all you need, Love is all you need, Love is all you need. (a little nod to the Beatles. .)

Some of you guys are just amazing traders and have Ichi figured out 21 ways from Sunday and it makes total sense to optimize your trading time.

But for us Ichi newbies, its just more noise on the thread that said,

"Forget the rest Ichi is the best".
fxScavenger Arrogance is just Ignorance misspelled. abso-PIPn-lutely
  • #4,994
  • Edited 9:05am Oct 13, 2009 8:44am | Edited 9:05am
Quoting Thierry89
Hello kevin

I understand that you don't use fractals but in case of clear bounce off, what kind of order do you place, where and why ?
Thanks again for your advices kevin.
Hi Thierry,

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=4927

Please see my post here, and some of my others in the recent past that will explain my order trading to some extent. I also will be posting examples in the future. I noticed, that you were using the 30m chart earlier. To let you know, I usually don't look lower than the 3hr chart.


At any rate, took a trade last night on a whim that was good for 50 pips.
More info here: http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=4971

As expected, 1.4842 a tough cookie to crack on EUR/USD. On another account, I shorted from 1.4842, for fun, and that trade turned out good, too.

More on topic, I believe 1.4840 will be tested again, so I've placed another buy order at around 1.4770. This order placed there due to flat Kijun-sen(blue)

Good luck,

Kevin

PS Changed colors for you scavenger
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #4,995
  • Oct 13, 2009 9:13am Oct 13, 2009 9:13am
hi
the GU trade i did was to show u the way to trade ichi ( the pure way as u call it ) so u are not betrayed , i trade ichi without any modification what so ever and i will do the same in the future . it is a very good method as vic has presented it here at the beginning of this thread .
there are many ways to take a signal from ichi , but the safest way is the way vic presented and was developed by all the warriors later in the their reports ( i loved these reports , very professional and clean )
kevin and sinner came in with something in plus why not we listen and read what they are doing . but if u feel lost or uncomfortable u can keep trading it as per original rules as i will always do . i hope this post make sense .

have a nice day

Quoting fxScavenger
My Purist or mostly Purist reference was to Vics Ichi method as defined in the first few pages of this thread, and vics mantra,

Ichi is all you need, Ichi is all you need, Ichi is all you need.
Love is all you need, Love is all you need, Love is all you need, Love is all you need. (a little nod to the Beatles. .)

[color=black][font=Verdana]Some...
  • #4,996
  • Oct 13, 2009 9:30am Oct 13, 2009 9:30am
Quoting samer960
hi
the GU trade i did...
Welcome back Samer
how are you big bro, as usual you are hunting the pips
wishing you all the luck
  • #4,997
  • Oct 13, 2009 9:37am Oct 13, 2009 9:37am
i am traveling my friend .
so many things has changed here . things were so nice and it was really a very nice thread , traders were humble and friendly and so willing to help each other i hope this thread remain as it was before .
regards

Quoting vic_elc
Welcome back Samer
how are you big bro, as usual you are hunting the pips
wishing you all the luck
  • #4,998
  • Oct 13, 2009 9:50am Oct 13, 2009 9:50am
Quoting samer960
hi
the GU trade i did was to show u the way to trade ichi ( the pure way as u call it ) so u are not betrayed , i trade ichi without any modification what so ever and i will do the same in the future . it is a very good method as vic has presented it here at the beginning of this thread .
there are many ways to take a signal from ichi , but the safest way is the way vic presented and was developed by all the warriors later in the their reports ( i loved these reports , very professional and clean )
kevin and sinner came in with something in plus...
Hi Samer,

Thanks for the support, and yes it makes very good sense.
I removed that betrayal remark (I thought before anyone saw it.) as I felt it was unnecessarily disparaging.

Just feeling a bit morose I guess.

I loved those reports also, A very good measure of my own progress up the learning curve. I also intend to continue with the original rules as layed out in the beginning of the thread. I want to master what I have learned so far before I screw it up with hybrid additives.

Good trading too you.
fxScavenger Arrogance is just Ignorance misspelled. abso-PIPn-lutely
  • #4,999
  • Oct 13, 2009 10:34am Oct 13, 2009 10:34am
Quoting jesperweber
For the standard indicator packaged with MT4, the buy fractal is pointing up and the sell fractal is pointing down. Fractal trading is a break-out system buying higher highs or selling lower lows when trend has been confirmed with the Alligator indicator in Bill Williams' setup.

I personally find fractals useful also to set stops (not reversals) at support/resistance in the timeframe used.
I think what confused him was that some people are using UP fractals as a point to sell if the overall trend is down. This is because it indicates a sort of swing high in the downtrend.
  • #5,000
  • Oct 13, 2009 10:36am Oct 13, 2009 10:36am
Quoting SanMiguel
I think what confused him was that some people are using UP fractals as a point to sell if the overall trend is down. This is because it indicates a sort of swing high in the downtrend.
Yup. Probably.

Not a bad approach, I think. Very contrarian to go in the opposite direction when everybody else plays lemmings waltzing off the cliff...
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