Elliott Wave Counting with EG

Entered 2 short trades @ 1.5801.

Current drawdown is 473 pips less profit collected on the hedge plus the recovery prior to entering 2 short trades again is now @ 337 pips

Still working my way out of the hole I find myself in.

EG

Possible re-test of 1.5747.

We can watch how price reacts at this level before we could have a "better " idea on its potential next direction.

EG

Price rise from 1.5728 up to 1.5815 has been choppy on the 1min chart but stayed in a channel on the 5min chart to the 4hr chart.

Am watching if price breaks to the down side of that channel. then likely that I will be looking at 1.5747 for a re-test or for it to fail in supporting the price.

I am short too

What was your basis for your short trade?

Currently, My short trades are just to hedge my Long trades from 1.6000 area. just trying to reduce my drawdown.

15min MACD is nearly at the point where it just might switch over to the upside of zero indicating more move upside.

EW still supports this move up even though higher time frames are indicating long term short.

So it basically depends on what time frame you are basing your trades on.

EG

Price on the 1min chart seems to be bouncing on the Previous resistance level of 1.5808, now possibly turning into a support.

15min MACD has crossed the Zero line and price seems to be bouncing off the level which it was at when MACD crossed the zero line.

Placing a Long trade @ 1.5812 inaddition to 4 existing split trades.


EG

The last 10 hours have been tough nursing these trades.

But I have manage to reduce the drawdown thru counter trading/hedging and allowing the Long trades to recover.

All long trades have been off since an hour ago and account has been recovering.

Now Technically eyeing 1.5869 for possible resistance.

Not placing additional Long trades yet as recovery is priority. Even if short term outlook is LONG, the risk is high if it goes against my trade.


EG

UPDATE 1:

Possible "B" Triangle EW on the 30 min chart. leads to a potential continuation of the Upmove on this TF for C before coming down. I suspect 1.5869 then down again

Here are the Cable charts on 15min and 60min

Notice that FE1.618 and 61.8% retrace are almost at the same level.

EG

What I called an EW triangle "B" is not perfect on the 15min chart in the previous post. But bias is still UP.

Below are the views from the 4hr chart for possible Expanded Flat. with "C running up to FE 100.

EG

Previous Resistance at 1.5808 now being tested for Support on the 1min and 5min chart. This is also near the 1.5803 Daily Pivot.

15-30-60 min charts are showing possible sideways movement of Cable specially if price is supported @ 1.5808

EG

Entered 2 Short trades @ 1.5810 just to lock my capital.

I need to leave now so I can not watch the charts and track the price.

Although I see more move UP....... We can never tell with precision how forex really moves.... enough to leave open positions running without me at the helm. At least , that is how I see it with my trades. I need to be around to react incase a trade turns against me. Not much on missing opportunities as there will always be a lot more each day.

Setting my TP on my previous long trades to +10 though

Happy profitable trading everyone

EG

Finally, exited my 2 long trades on the positive side but offsets the drawdown on the short trades.

just nursing the short trades for now. and extending the SL to 1.6350.

Based on that last chart I posted, Target for up move is FE 100 @ 1.6080.

I exited long trades @ 1.6086

Price may still go to FE 161.8 @ 1.6297 or even higher if this develops as the possible 5th wave of a Big wave 4 on the Weekly.

I prefer to stay out and let the Short trades run even at the risk of increasing the drawdown some more.

I know that by doing this I may need to add more funds to protect the capital of the current trades. which I am willing to do until I can reduce the drawdown or be able to let these short trades recover as Long term scenario still seem DOWN.

Will then be reducing trade sizes while the short trades are still in place.

New trades will only be for Long trades when I see opportunities. short opportunities should be taken cared of the recovery.

if the recovery continues, I will still be up more than the 3% target I have on the month.

So keeping calm and focused now. There is no need to chase the trades.

Winning or profiting is never really in the number of trades you make, but the quality of the opportunities/risk we take.

EG

Possible scenario for Cable

Count very likely Invalidated for a possible w4 on the 4hr chart as it has retraced proposed w3 down by more than 61.8%.

The time when w4 exceeds 61.8% retracement of w3 (without overlapping with w1) , following w5 likely to be truncated.

Technically I think, if this is not w4 anymore, then we should be seeing a 5 wave structure impulse wave up for the w5 on the weekly chart. Again targetting max of 61.8% retrace of w3 down on the weekly chart. Level around 1.7600

EG

4hr chart and the 1hr chart would show a very fast move UP for Cable.

This looks more like a Zigzag to me as the retrracement is too shallow which is more like a "B" of a zigzag in contrast to the usual 61.8% retrace of w1 for the w2 of a bigger W5.

SO I think I would stay put with the proposal that the wave count is still a wave 4 which will likely be followed by a truncated wave 5.

Unless we are really going to see a much bigger fall of Cable which by looking at a naked chart, we could see a possible Head and shoulder pattern which could see Cable dropping towards

1.5200 in line with another system
1.4400 Monthly S3
1.3650 H&S Pattern Naked Chart ( this level aside from the higher 2 levels listed above)

EG

I think the count EW on cable is probably wave 2circle and probably will retrace further to 1.65432 to 1.67886 unfortunately dont have u beaut programs that some of you seem to have but just looking at the longer time frame it seems to me that these targets reasonable 61.8% to 76.4% fibo levels .

I would like some info if any body knows which ew indicator shows the wave count ?

Thanks in advance if anyone would like to share it .. Till next time happy trading to all....

V

Holding on to my hedged trades as the Bear count on the Daily seem to have finished at 38.2% retrace of w3 and the internal wave structure of w4 seemed to have eneded with c=a (approximately).

The move up could now be the w5 towards 1.7600 to maximize the 61.8% retrace of the large w3 on the monthly chart.

Since the w4 on the weekly chart is possibly showing a 5 wave structured impulse wave, it is then possible that this is just the 4a or an "a" of a 3 wave structured corrective expanding wave.

If price goes higher than 1.7613-30, very likely then that the previous wave count is invalidated. And what would be developing from the lows of 1.3505 would then be an impulsive wave UP.

Till then, I am on the side and just letting the trades run. No point in adding to my positions for now. Will wait for longer term reversal signals. Initial profits have already been substantial. Waiting for clearer reversal signals will be worth it as it will allow me to unhedge thus profiting in the Long trades and later profitting as the short trades recover. I find no need to chase the trend now.

Taking a break... but have joined the contest at forex club for some fun. The fxdrive has been dominated by the Chinese turning 1K USD into 17K in 3 days.

So far sticking to my system and trading when I have the time to be on my computer. Have managed so far to go higher than my usual targets but definitely way way far behind the 1700% increase made by the leaders.

Happy Profitable trading everyone.

EG

Hello V

Welcome to FF. What do you mean by wave2circle?

The MT4 platform is free and readily available. It is very versatile. Check it out. Most of the charts here are made from there.

The best EW wave count indicator is right between your ears

The possible wave subdivisions can be viewed generally on a naked chart.

Technical indicators are used for validation by some (including me).

You can use MACD and Stochastics to help you look for Divergence indicating potential reversals at w5. Some use RSI.

There are tons of indicators out there you can use. selecet which one you feel comfortable with as each trader will see and weigh indicator values differently.

EG

Last Friday’s development for me, indicated that

W4 on the weekly chart has ended by retracing w3 around 38.2% with an internal wave structure of c=a
W4 correction could have extended towards 1.5225 which is the FE 161.8 of the fib extention from the 1.7056 level.
And this will be within the 50-61.8% range for the retracement of w3

Lower than 1.5225 would have indicated a higher probability that Bear trend has resumed.
As this would extend beyond the duideline for w4 development using the fib extention tool although it would be allowed till 1.4952 for the 61.8% retracement level in the w4 guideline.

Both guidelines must be used, that is why I chose 1.5225 as my limit.

The supposed head and shoulder pattern development in the weekly chart is now invalidated with a high probability using EW with another strategy.

It is highly likely that w5 up is un development.

W5 may develop as an impulse structure in 5 non overlapping waves or it may also develop as an ending diagonal triangle.

But first, let us look at how price will develop for today.

The move Up from 1.5707 looks like a 5non overlapping wave structure which can be considered as w1 within a bigger wave 5

The drop from 1.6694 seemed to have been too abrupt which I would attribute to a possible zigzag w2 within a bigger w5.

Zigzagz exhibit what is referred to as a possible violent price move.
Looking for a possible oversold indication on the lower time frames for a retracement B of the Zigzag ( range of 38-79%..... wow I need to to really keep reading. I tend to forget these guidelines)

Zigzag retracement ( B retraces A by a range of 38-79 % )
If B is a running triangle…. It will retrace A 10-40%
If B is a zigzag….. It will retrace A 50-79%
If B is a triangle ….. It will retrace A by 38-50%

If a zigzag… usually start of A and the end of C fits into a channel. ( meant for possible targets )


Flat retracement ( B retraces A by at least 90 % )

Note that Zigzags which are “violent price moves” may also trick traders into panic.
Combine it with the observation that this zigzags are more often seen in w2s rather than in w4s.

Many would think that last Friday’s move was a resumption of the bear trend.

If price continues to go down and goes lower than 1.5707, then Cable may be resuming the bear trend or would be in a sideways movement. We would need to see how the wave structure develops in the lower time frames.

If price goes higher than 1.6694, then w5 assumption is validated.. In the mean time trade based on the analysis of the lower time frames.

On the weekly chart, if this is w4A where A is in a 4 wave structure, price maximum is at 61.8% of the w3 which is towards 1.7615

EG

15min Cable

would show a potential ending diagonal triangle consolidating at its tip.

Possibly retracing Last Friday by 50% toward 1.6496

EG

PS. ended last weeks FXDrive entry with a measly 50% capital increase not beeing able to trade most of the time.

The highest was able to increase capital above 50K from 1k

Cable Probabilities

Longer term still UP for me.

EG