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4H Box Breakout

  • #4,641
  • Edited 9:13pm Oct 5, 2009 8:46pm | Edited 9:13pm
I would liek to make this note, which suggests 1 more bounce off the S&R.

Notice the RSI points in the opposing direction, this suggests to me that when the price bounces off the S&R this time, it will continue up for a little while.

But as it stands right now, PA is almost definitely going to test this S&R at least once more.

However, because the RSI line is on a very slight slope, this could also indicate, because the price action is tapering off with lower highs, and higher lows, that PA could range on this S&R line for a little bit.
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  • #4,642
  • Oct 5, 2009 9:39pm Oct 5, 2009 9:39pm
I almost forgot how to report winning trades, but that's what I'm about to try to do.

I took a Short trade at 143.01 and closed the first lot at 90 pips, and the second trade is now at BE. I'll manage that trade with Pharoah's Smart Stop.

The trade at 143.01 was based on Yonnie's idea of using the close of the first 4H bar as the basis for the entry rather than the high and low. Ironically, Yonnie isn't using that idea himself, so I'm not sure how much credence to give it, but I thought I would give it a try this week.

The saving grace this week was that the first 4H candle was so bullish, which allowed the short trade to kick in at a much more advantageous position.
Greetings from Guanajuato, Mexico
  • #4,643
  • Oct 6, 2009 3:40am Oct 6, 2009 3:40am
I did the same trade at 143.02 (but with different entry reason - break of reversal pin bars). also closed half at +80 pips, and now the other half has been SL at BE...

the g/j pair is still sick....


Quoting yen44x
I almost forgot how to report winning trades, but that's what I'm about to try to do.

I took a Short trade at 143.01 and closed the first lot at 90 pips, and the second trade is now at BE. I'll manage that trade with Pharoah's Smart Stop.

The trade at 143.01 was based on Yonnie's idea of using the close of the first 4H bar as the basis for the entry rather than the high and low. Ironically, Yonnie isn't using that idea himself, so I'm not sure how much credence to give it, but I thought I would give it a try this week.

The saving grace...
  • #4,644
  • Oct 6, 2009 1:51pm Oct 6, 2009 1:51pm
I am a newbie, don't take my word for anything, infact don't even read this.

This system seems to have some really rough rides lately, did the market conditions change since the golden age of first half of 2009?
  • #4,645
  • Oct 6, 2009 2:00pm Oct 6, 2009 2:00pm
Quoting Jesper
I am a newbie, don't take my word for anything, infact don't even read this.

This system seems to have some really rough rides lately, did the market conditions change since the golden age of first half of 2009?
GJ's been going down since 2007 toward the super S&R zone of the last few decades. Currently, we are in this super S&R zone. I expect we'll be in this zone ranging for a little while. if you'll notice, lower highs are being made, and higher lows, this is a STRONG indication that range is coming, and trend is at it's end.

Draw up trendlines on your chart from the lowest lows, and the highest highs from sept 28th on.

I must also note that this line has been respected 3 times so far this year (2008.10.01 - current date, exactly 1 year), the only other time this S&R was respected was in 1994-1995 and only did so twice in those 2 years.
  • #4,646
  • Oct 6, 2009 2:08pm Oct 6, 2009 2:08pm
Why did the rating of this system changed from 5 stars to 4 stars?
  • #4,647
  • Oct 6, 2009 2:14pm Oct 6, 2009 2:14pm
Quoting Kakyn
Why did the rating of this system changed from 5 stars to 4 stars?
Winning trades = higher star count from people, when it's in a loosing streak like it's in right now... who would vote good?

New people pop up in here all the time, checking things out, not understanding them, or the system is just in a bad spell. And without reading all the details (hard to read it all when there's hundreds of pages of information)

I've completely lost faith in the long term success of this system. It seems to be VERY powerful when there is an active strong trend. But when there's not, 1 week can take out 1 weeks worth of profits, and then some.

This is not good.
  • #4,648
  • Oct 6, 2009 3:11pm Oct 6, 2009 3:11pm
Using the close of the week +/- 50 for the entry, my back testing only came up with three large gaps for the opening on Sunday evening. For the week starting 11 Jan if you had ignored the gap and dived in at the opening it would have been a winning trade. But on the 18th Jan and 15th Feb you would have copped two loosers.
  • #4,649
  • Oct 6, 2009 3:15pm Oct 6, 2009 3:15pm
Quoting bobha
Using the close of the week +/- 50 for the entry, my back testing only came up with three large gaps for the opening on Sunday evening. For the week starting 11 Jan if you had ignored the gap and dived in at the opening it would have been a winning trade. But on the 18th Jan and 15th Feb you would have copped two loosers.
That's really good, what would the losses have lost in comparison to the win? Do you think it's wise to trade on close/open gap or just to only trade when the price is still within the box formed from the close of last week. The Win % suggests no, but would the R:R suggest yes?
  • #4,650
  • Oct 6, 2009 4:22pm Oct 6, 2009 4:22pm
Quoting Pharoah
GJ's been going down since 2007 toward the super S&R zone of the last few decades. Currently, we are in this super S&R zone. I expect we'll be in this zone ranging for a little while. if you'll notice, lower highs are being made, and higher lows, this is a STRONG indication that range is coming, and trend is at it's end.

Draw up trendlines on your chart from the lowest lows, and the highest highs from sept 28th on.

I must also note that this line has been respected 3 times so far this year (2008.10.01 - current date, exactly 1 year), the only...

you bet 118.82 was the absolute low of this pair ever and it happened just last December. I was so wet behind my ears, i would be scared to death trading this monster than despite seeing it in huge down trend.
ah, good times good times. I guess Ace made huger profits then...
  • #4,651
  • Oct 6, 2009 4:23pm Oct 6, 2009 4:23pm
Quoting Kakyn
Why did the rating of this system changed from 5 stars to 4 stars?
Kakyn, may I ask you where did you get this nick ?
  • #4,652
  • Oct 6, 2009 7:28pm Oct 6, 2009 7:28pm
Without Yen's jokes this thread is awfully quiet.

I have closed one lot with +100 and the last lot is still open with +125 as we speak.
  • #4,653
  • Oct 6, 2009 7:29pm Oct 6, 2009 7:29pm
Quoting wrenski
Without Yen's jokes this thread is awfully quiet.

I have closed one lot with +100 and the last lot is still open with +125 as we speak.
Congrats
  • #4,654
  • Oct 6, 2009 7:52pm Oct 6, 2009 7:52pm
OMG, the rollover policy in GFT is really killing....though my trade was closed out positively but it really confused me..I am going to switch broker I swear!

anyway, this week is good for me, at least i recovered my lossess.

Good trading everyone
  • #4,655
  • Oct 6, 2009 8:39pm Oct 6, 2009 8:39pm
Quoting shiko
Kakyn, may I ask you where did you get this nick ?
It's my real name with modified spelling (same pronounciation)
  • #4,656
  • Oct 7, 2009 1:02am Oct 7, 2009 1:02am
Quoting Pharoah
I've completely lost faith in the long term success of this system. It seems to be VERY powerful when there is an active strong trend. But when there's not, 1 week can take out 1 weeks worth of profits, and then some. This is not good.
Unfortunately, I'm starting to agree. What at first appeared impossible (week after week of losing trades) is now becoming routine, and it's the occasional winner that seems the oddity.

Don't get me wrong on what I'm about to say. I like the concept of your Smart Stop System, but what's the attraction of combining it with a system that you have no faith in? It seems that the Smart Stop would work even better with a trading strategy that was profitable on a more consistent basis.

Have you given some thought to that?
Greetings from Guanajuato, Mexico
  • #4,657
  • Oct 7, 2009 1:06am Oct 7, 2009 1:06am
Quoting wrenski
Without Yen's jokes this thread is awfully quiet. I have closed one lot with +100 and the last lot is still open with +125 as we speak.
Nice work, Wrenski.

I was starting to wonder if anyone else was in this trade. If you're still in, you must not be moving your SL to BE at +100. Is that correct?
Greetings from Guanajuato, Mexico
  • #4,658
  • Oct 7, 2009 1:26am Oct 7, 2009 1:26am
Quoting yen44x
Unfortunately, I'm starting to agree. What at first appeared impossible (week after week of losing trades) is now becoming routine, and it's the occasional winner that seems the oddity.

Don't get me wrong on what I'm about to say. I like the concept of your Smart Stop System, but what's the attraction of combining it with a system that you have no faith in? It seems that the Smart Stop would work even better with a trading strategy that was profitable on a more consistent basis.

Have you given some thought to that?
Of course I have, hence 4H Banker Buster, which is the grandchild of this system. I'm a firm believer that it doesn't matter when, or how you enter a trade, it's how you manage it after that point that's important. This is what attracts me about breakout systems, they give us a clear cut signal, and we either take it, or don't, and we profit from it, or not, it's 50 50 chances, but because we have reduced box size, incorporated smartstop, and box move, we've managed to turn failing weeks into winners.

Ace was definitely on to something, he just went about it in a visual manner. A box size of 300 pips is an unrealistic box size to trade a breakout method, unless there's a nice trend going or you catch a lucky break... It should not be dynamic, it should be static, and that static should only change if market volatility requires it, otherwise, let er rip.

I'm not dogging on Ace or his system, it was his system afterall that my system came from, and I can't wait to see what he has to bring to the table with his improved version, I want to know what if anything is similar to mine.
  • #4,659
  • Oct 7, 2009 1:32am Oct 7, 2009 1:32am
Quoting Pharoah
Of course I have, hence 4H Banker Buster, which is the grandchild of this system.
Asking if you had thought about it was probably a poor choice of words on my part. What I'm really asking is . . . if there's a breakout system out there that was more profitable from the get-go, isn't it likely that Smart Stop would do even better when combined with that system?
Greetings from Guanajuato, Mexico
  • #4,660
  • Oct 7, 2009 1:43am Oct 7, 2009 1:43am
Of course, I strongly believe that Smartstop can be used on any time frame, on nearly every trading system. Yes it has to be tailored to that system, but most definitely.

And the reason I chose to work with this particular method, is because it was easy to work with. It didn't clutter my screen with this that and the other thing. It was clean, clear cut, and and the time, profitable.

I'm a fulltime father of a 2 year old, I don't have time to watch indicators all day, I've stated many times before that yes, I have tested Smartstop on other systems, and yes, it did work, did it work well right off the get go? sometimes no, but I didn't bother going in depth to tweak it either.

The reason I believe my Smartstop could be apllied to most any system is because most systems have Take Profits, none of mine do, I let the MA catch all the action it can instead of limiting myself to what things tell me is the point of exit, what if it's a slight hickup in the market? (this would be more or less for 1D+ timeframes) where it happened to blow past that TP point.. mine lets you catch it, or at least some of it that's over and above the original TP point, which ultimately = more money.

I just personally don't have the time, most of my work goes in around 8pm-5pm, where I play an hour of games to relieve myself from a day of 2 year old antics, then I stick my face in the screen and work on my own systems.

If anyone wants to addopt my SmartStop system for use in their own, that's completely fine with me, however, I don't want it coded into an EA and given away to every tom dick and harry.
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