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4H Box Breakout

Quoting yen44x
Hey, Wrenski, I know things move a little slower there in the Deep South. But, now that you're rolling in the bucks after that great trade, have you thought of AC for the car? I noticed one of your neighbors already has it . . .
Wow....that is a nice car. If I can get this trading thing down, I told the wife we are getting us one those. At first I may have to skip the optional generator and just use a long (very long) extension cord.
Quoting yen44x
I'm glad you mentioned the second candle again, Wrenski, because I'm moving toward using that as well, either on FXDD or IBFX.

The second candle on IBFX ends at 11 p.m. my time here in Mexico.
Yes, the second candle does close at 11:00 PM central.
o.k. guys, I`m leaving forex altogether to get back to trading stocks only.

I believe there are better systems out there for a regular paycheck than this system.
look at the 2-3 ranging years and you see what I mean.

if I would trade forex, I would look at the systems involving support and resistance.
on higher TF I might get in 40-50 pips before hitting resistance and if the breakout fails I close this position at BE and do a reverse trade.
if it does breakout, I`m in at a very favourable price.

I`ve never traded this nor looked at it, so take this with a huge grain of salt.

Some people are starting to trade 1st 4Hr close +/- 50 pips and I would say that it depends or where the close is in relation to the 4Hr candle.
if it closes right at the top or bottom, I wouldn`t want to place another 50 pips in its path, but just the normal high/low of the box +/- buffer.
the other entry can be placed 80-100 pips from that.

on the hourly chart, the 0.00 and 1.00 GMT candles are each good candles to take your entry from.

from 29 March to 21 September Ace would have had 9 losses, the 0.00 Gmt candle had 5 losses and the 1.00 candle 5 losses.
if you extend your buffer to 34 pips your losses get smaller, but your SL will have to be a little larger.
if you get stopped out, but price doesn`t hit the bottom of the box, replace the pending order that was triggered and most times you will be in a winning trade.

hope this helps somebody, `cos for sure you`ll need it
Quoting bravester
found ace here :

http://www.myspace.com/ace284

I thought Ace was from Canada!? This dude is from Texas (not that there is anything wrong Texas).
I still think the system is a goer with just a couple of small mods. Use the bar/candle starting at 0400 GMT. Add 25 to the High (the 5 is for the broker) and subtract 20 from the low. Initial SL is 100%. At T1 move the SL to the half way point between the long and the short entry points. At T2 SL goes to BE. At T3 use T1.
From 3rd Aug to close Wed 7th Oct
T1 = 575, T2 = 790, T3 = 955, T4 = 1195 for a total of 3515 pips.
You have to be brave to trade this way as you get some pretty hefty kicks in the teeth but in the long run you would have enough to pay the dentist and still have plenty left over.
Quoting bobha
I still think the system is a goer with just a couple of small mods. Use the bar/candle starting at 0400 GMT. From 3rd Aug to close Wed 7th Oct T1 = 575, T2 = 790, T3 = 955, T4 = 1195 for a total of 3515 pips.
Very interesting, bobha.

Were these results based on back testing or have you been trading the system during that entire time, either live or demo?

If it's based on back testing, would you be able to post an excel sheet tabulating the results? I'd be very interested in taking a look. It seems hard to believe that a 4-hour change would make that much difference, but if it does, I'd make the change with no problem.

A couple of posters have mentioned they are using the second candle on IBFX, which ends only an hour earlier than the FXDD candle, and they certainly never mentioned results like those, but again, if you have the data, I'd love to look at it.

If not, I'll rev up the back test machine and do it myself.
Greetings from Guanajuato, Mexico
Bobha . . . I just found this earlier post from you stating that you don't use Excel, so that probably hasn't changed. I'll do some back testing myself.

How is it possible that someone knows Latin but not Excel?

Quoting bobha
Sorry, PJ. I am not into Excell. I have just done it all on a sheet of paper which may be hard for you to read.
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Greetings from Guanajuato, Mexico
I've been using the 0GMT candle since August. It fairs no worse than FXDD's candle and the last 2 months has had an edge. Alot more traders look at 0GMT than FXDD's first candle. The only traders looking at the first FXDD candle are those that trade with a broker that has that time offset.

Quoting yen44x
I'm glad you mentioned the second candle again, Wrenski, because I'm moving toward using that as well, either on FXDD or IBFX.

The second candle on IBFX ends at 11 p.m. my time here in Mexico, and at 12 a.m. on FXDD. Either way, it would be a lot more convenient for me than the first candle.

Plus, I tend to agree with Pharoah's point that the most important factor in a breakout system is not always the entry point, but rather trade management. If that's the case, I'd rather opt for what's convenient.
Quoting wrenski
I thought Ace was from Canada!? This dude is from Texas (not that there is anything wrong Texas).
Poor Cody. Dudes gonna get his email blownup. Pretty sure that ain't him.
Quoting yen44x
Very interesting, bobha.

Were these results based on back testing or have you been trading the system during that entire time, either live or demo?

If it's based on back testing, would you be able to post an excel sheet tabulating the results? I'd be very interested in taking a look. It seems hard to believe that a 4-hour change would make that much difference, but if it does, I'd make the change with no problem.

A couple of posters have mentioned they are using the second candle on IBFX, which ends only an hour earlier than the FXDD candle,...
second ibfx candle closes later.
Quoting 11andy11
second ibfx candle closes later.
Thanks for the correction Andy . . . you would know more about it than I since you use IBFX. I did download a demo previously and it appeared the first 4H candle opens at 3 p.m. CST, an hour earlier than the FXDD candle, and so I thought the second candle would end at 11 p.m. CST. That's what Wrenski mentioned earlier, and he also uses IBFX.

Is that incorrect?

Quoting wrenski
Yes, the second candle does close at 11:00 PM central.
Greetings from Guanajuato, Mexico
Quoting 11andy11
I've been using the 0GMT candle since August. It fairs no worse than FXDD's candle and the last 2 months has had an edge.
Thanks for that Andy. When you say an "edge", are you getting anywhere near the results that Bobha mentioned from using the second candle (FXDD in his case, IBFX in yours)?
Greetings from Guanajuato, Mexico
Quoting 11andy11
Poor Cody. Dudes gonna get his email blownup. Pretty sure that ain't him.
Poor Cody indeed . . . Can you imagine receiving 8,000 emails daily, and everyone of them saying "Ace, can you give me a heads-up on the new system?"
Greetings from Guanajuato, Mexico
Quoting yen44x
Thanks for the correction Andy . . . you would know more about it than I since you use IBFX. I did download a demo previously and it appeared the first 4H candle opens at 3 p.m. CST, an hour earlier than the FXDD candle, and so I thought the second candle would end at 11 p.m. CST. That's what Wrenski mentioned earlier, and he also uses IBFX.

Is that incorrect?
shit, I don't know. I am pretty sure the ibfx candle Wrenski and I use closes a couple of hours after the fxdd candle. I have looked at both of them for the last two months and 0GMT has had the edge for sure.
Quoting yen44x
Poor Cody indeed . . . Can you imagine receiving 8,000 emails daily, and everyone of them saying "Ace, can you give me a heads-up on the new system?"
Actually its pretty funny, that guy doesn't know forex from windex.
Quoting 11andy11
Actually its pretty funny, that guy doesn't know forex from windex.
. . . or forex from Spandex or Kleenex . . . and on and on.
Greetings from Guanajuato, Mexico
Quoting yen44x
Thanks for that Andy. When you say an "edge", are you getting anywhere near the results that Bobha mentioned from using the second candle (FXDD in his case, IBFX in yours)?
I didn't see his post, don't get me wrong, its been a CF on the 0 gmt candle the last 5 weeks but it was more profitable than fxdd. Course I sat out this week to wash the blood off after the massacre and it had a decent run down. Thats another problem with this system is really the only way your gonna know its not working is losing alot. Because the system is designed to supposedly still be profitable even when it loses more than it wins it requires you to trade 'through' the losing streak. If you start to reduce the amount of equity you trade you through off the systems ability to recover from the losses. So how do you know when the system is going to suck for three months other than dropping 50% of your account?? Think about trying to trade this system in a year like 2005. You have to be one determined sob to keep sending your soldiers out their to get creamed every week. In all reality you would abandon the system after a while. Emotionally it would be alot to deal with as a trader.
Andy . . . thanks for that pep talk before I head to bed. Unfortunately, I can't really argue with any of your points. They just make too much sense.

Which brings up the question . . . why are we all still here? Somewhere deep in the recesses of my mind, I keep hearing a voice shouting "masochism, that's why".
Greetings from Guanajuato, Mexico
Ok, read his post, hes testing something for two months and there just so happened to be a pretty massive push down out of the summer consolidation during that time period. It means nothing without a better track record. At this point we may be grasping at straws trying to turn this into something that it can't be. I am not against changing the system but breakouts are breakouts. Nothing more nothing less. Maybe Pharoh said it best that its in how you manage the trade. Paul Tudor Jones said don't worry about how much your going to make, worry about how much you could lose. If you take care of the losses the winners will take care of themselves. I am pretty close to abandoning this sytem. I have other systems that I have more control over and ultimately they are more profitable.
Gonna be down in Puerto Vallarta Mexico all next week Yen. Why don't you ride your burro down there and we can have a cold one and talk about this system???
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