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4H Box Breakout

hello guys,

just a few thoughts if yous dont mind.

I`m having a bit of a problem with this system: dont get me wrong, when the volatility is there its great.

there is a professional trader who trades IB`s for the last 6 years and his average win rate is 34%.
Months/quarters go by where he has no pay-off or a loss, even with all his expertise. He says: are you prepared for 10-18 losses in a row and will you still take the 19th trade?

This system`s win rate is only 40% in good times and the sweat is already breaking out through imagining what it will be in bad times.

You might say: well, I`ll just turn it on in the good times......but I`m thinking of all those hours you have to spend on this system to learn to trade it to perfection while you might spend that time on another system.

Now I dont want to sit in front of the screen the whole day, but are there no systems out there on 1HR or 4HR timeframe that will give you a regular weekly/monthly paycheck year after year after spending the required time to master it?

I for one did not trade this system this week, `cos its ranging too much and I hate losing money.
Quoting Pharoah
When I talk about closing half position at TP1, this is not the TP1 of ace's original box entry, this is TP1, or 100% of the box that is in play, in this case, 100 pips is the constant (as the box is 100 pips constant)
i see.
Pharoah, what do you think of testing this new Ace system version?
1. trigger week last 4H candle close high/low when Sunday starts.
2. stop loss as per Yen
3.closing half of TP1 as per you
i will back test if starting from January 1.
Yen, could you explain me how to calculate your reduced box again?
Quoting shiko
i see.
Pharoah, what do you think of testing this new Ace system version?
1. trigger week last 4H candle close high/low when Sunday starts.
2. stop loss as per Yen
3.closing half of TP1 as per you
i will back test if starting from January 1.
Definitely has potential, the only thing I can see as a concern as I've mentioned before is that while the market is closed over the weekend, there can be a HUGE difference in price from market close to market open, the price could already be outside of the box when the market opens.
Quoting Pharoah
Definitely has potential, the only thing I can see as a concern as I've mentioned before is that while the market is closed over the weekend, there can be a HUGE difference in price from market close to market open, the price could already be outside of the box when the market opens.
but it won't hurt us since we have no opened positions over weekend. it ig gaps through our trigger long we go long and same with short.
i need yen box rules to back test.
i visually noticed that week last 4h has potential for good returns.
difference in volatility might be one thing and obviosly in most cases if we have no news on weekend people are just continuing in
friday end's direction... psychology...
Quoting shiko
but it won't hurt us since we have no opened positions over weekend. it ig gaps through our trigger long we go long and same with short.
i need yen box rules to back test.
i visually noticed that week last 4h has potential for good returns.
difference in volatility might be one thing and obviosly in most cases if we have no news on weekend people are just continuing in
friday end's direction... psychology...
Ok, just so I got this right, you're saying that if the market opens with a price say, below the box low, execute a short order immediately? and opposite for long? Otherwise, we could have HUGE trend continuations from market open to market close if that week had an original price lower/higher than that of the low/high of the breakout box from the previous week.
Quoting Pharoah
Ok, just so I got this right, you're saying that if the market opens with a price say, below the box low, execute a short order immediately? and opposite for long? Otherwise, we could have HUGE trend continuations from market open to market close if that week had an original price lower/higher than that of the low/high of the breakout box from the previous week.

i think i should back test this and other variation. i need yen box rules actually to start
Quoting shiko
i think i should back test this and other variation. i need yen box rules actually to start
ya, definitely worth backtesting for sure, anyone that dismisses a method immediately IMO won't get too far. Trial and error, process of elimination, this is how we learn.
Quoting shiko
i think i should back test this and other variation. i need yen box rules actually to start
as i understand you have been discussing using 4h high/ low as trigger.
hence, last weekly 4H high was 142.89+spread it is high trigger, low was 142.26 is low trigger. now, i wonder where we set stop loss in this case .
Quoting shiko
as i understand you have been discussing using 4h high/ low as trigger.
hence, last weekly 4H high was 142.89+spread it is high trigger, low was 142.26 is low trigger. now, i wonder where we set stop loss in this case .
Box low would be 142.46
Quoting Pharoah
Box low would be 142.46
you know , you are right. i actually use it in my discretionary trading. there ius very high probability that price will test 142.26. hence, when it reaches it , we close halh position, right? then what? stop loss to b/e?
Quoting yen44x
I'm willing to share my entry if you're willing to share my losses.

Actually, this week I'm experimenting with Yonnie's suggestion. I have an entry 50 pips above and below the close, so no trades are open yet.

On a demo account, I'm also adapting (liberally) some of the nuances of the First Strike Plus system. However, I'm still using the close of the first 4H candle instead of the opening price. Those trades are set, respectively, at 100 pips and 150 pips above and below the close. Again, those are strictly for experimenting on the demo account.

As...
Thanks for sharing. My orders are still pending, not triggered yet. So far, I have lost 3 weeks in the row and no trade last week...hope to recover my losses in coming weeks. I wish I can share your losses...but too bad my account is too small.......
hello guys, here i am going to start testing proposed variation of Ace's strategy where i open positions based upon each week last candle.
i am ready to start testing.
need only explanation how to build Yen box. i think i understand but not sure. i will put it here how i understand it should be set and please correct me if i am wrong.
1. week last Friday 4H candle is used to build a box. (my proposal)
2.Box = total number of pips from above mentioned 4H candle + spread and -20 pips from below for short position. am i right?
3. close 50% of position after TP! is reached. move stop loss to BE
4.move stop loss each time price reaches another [email protected], TP3 and so forth, right?

I need general rules. the only difference is that i will set the box based upon each week last Friday 4H candle.
Morning all woke up and stopped out for the week CU later
I do Good I feel GoodI do Bad I feel Bad
this weeks 4h box was 142.44-143.92 + 20 buffer 144.12 for long and 142.24 short trade not yet triggered

sure taking its time this week
"The person who knows that enough is enough, will always have enough". .
the has not trigggered or am i missing something


Quoting Offshore
Morning all woke up and stopped out for the week CU later
"The person who knows that enough is enough, will always have enough". .
Yen! how are you setting your box? i am going to test new variation but do not understand 100% box setting.
Quoting shiko
but it won't hurt us since we have no opened positions over weekend. it ig gaps through our trigger long we go long and same with short.
that would have been a loss for this week, because it gapped down, you would`ve gone short and from there it went up almost immediately.

most times the gap will close and another way of doing it is to let price come back into the box and place your pending orders at that time.

on the other hand if after a gap down price keeps going down you might miss out on a big profit.

backtesting will tell all.

oh, your last 4H candle might be different than the one on my chart, which runs from 17.00-20.59 GMT and my high is 143.17 and low is 142.48.
A silent day again on yesterday trade. I dint go in with this strategy this week because I don't know how long it will take for the system to be profitable to us again. I use back my own strategy and manage to take 62 pips yesterday.

Base on my FXCM chart with stoch (14, 3, 3), the two line is going to cross and soon sell trend will come. May be I will set a sell order base on the method used in this trade with today 1st candle.

Good luck, guys!!
Quoting yonnie
that would have been a loss for this week, because it gapped down, you would`ve gone short and from there it went up almost immediately.

most times the gap will close and another way of doing it is to let price come back into the box and place your pending orders at that time.

on the other hand if after a gap down price keeps going down you might miss out on a big profit.

backtesting will tell all.

oh, your last 4H candle might be different than the one on my chart, which runs from 17.00-20.59 GMT and my high is 143.17 and low is 142.48....

Yonni, so, what. loss going short, than win going long. with this size of the box and proper money management we can take trades in both directions.
this is mechanic system, signals must be taken. with previous Ace full box taking second position after taking loss had low probability of success but with small box probability increases. i need to back test it.
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