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AUD/USD

  • #5,501
  • Oct 6, 2009 1:11am Oct 6, 2009 1:11am
Quoting Xaron
Haha, good joke, mate. Of course the chart only looks that way because of the fundamentals.
No kidding !!!!
  • #5,502
  • Oct 6, 2009 1:18am Oct 6, 2009 1:18am
Quoting shahab8b
No kidding !!!!
Hmm ok. So why goes a pair up? Because there is more demand for the AUD. That demand comes mainly from the underlying fundamentals which is in this case the strong economy and (of course) the start of the rate hike circle again. Those big investors moving that pair don't look at charts at all...

Actually a lot of market moving stuff is not technical related and not even based on the permission that there shall be a win (so speculative due to buy low, sell high).

Look, there are two types of players in the FX market:
1) profit-seeking investors (risk-takers)
2) central banks and corporations (normally risk hedgers)
The former only make up 25% of the overall daily volume. For the other 75%, making a profit in FX is not their main reason for transacting. Banks and retail investors are both in category 1 and can both make money at the expense of category 2. In other words, there is no zero-sum game between banks and retail investors.
This is a peculiarity of FX not always present in other capital markets.
  • #5,503
  • Oct 6, 2009 1:26am Oct 6, 2009 1:26am
Quoting blue_z_zz
here is what im thinking we might have a double top in play so lets wait and see im leaning more toward a short now but going to wait for 2-3 hours before i short or no play
correct blue, if high is not cut in the first two hours of european session we will likely see a downmove towards 88 and lower tonight
  • #5,504
  • Edited 1:49am Oct 6, 2009 1:31am | Edited 1:49am
[quote=Xaron;3119918]Hmm ok. So why goes a pair up? [quote]

Xaron, you really think I dont know all that stuff. anybody knows fundamental moves the market, When I said techincal comes first it means ,if you dont even know the fundamental reason (in this case the unexpected rate hike) you can read them on the chart before their announcement.

peace
  • #5,505
  • Oct 6, 2009 1:37am Oct 6, 2009 1:37am
  •  G_Man
  • | Joined Aug 2009 | Status: getting ready for the next Battle | 781 Posts
ok, i am gonna make a statement now and it may sound really silly to you guys ... specially all the long guys out there ...

even though we are only 25 pips away from 8900, i dont think it will go over 8900 this week ... if it was going to happen it would've already happen by now ...

i really think 8870 - 8900 is the best time to short. Well, atleast for this week ...
  • #5,506
  • Oct 6, 2009 1:38am Oct 6, 2009 1:38am
[quote=shahab8b;3119953][quote=Xaron;3119918]Hmm ok. So why goes a pair up?
Quote

Xaron, you really think I dont know all that stuff. anybody knows fundamental moves the market, When I said techincal comes first it means ,if you dont even know the fundamental reason (in this case the unexpected rate hike) you can read them on the chart before their announcement.If you think you are so knowlageable you better contribute something useful to this thread.

peace


Agreed!!
:: Knowledge is Strength :: :nerd:
  • #5,507
  • Oct 6, 2009 1:39am Oct 6, 2009 1:39am
  •  G_Man
  • | Joined Aug 2009 | Status: getting ready for the next Battle | 781 Posts
Quoting G_Man
ok, i am gonna make a statement now and it may sound really silly to you guys ... specially all the long guys out there ...

even though we are only 25 pips away from 8900, i dont think it will go over 8900 this week ... if it was going to happen it would've already happen by now ...

i really think 8870 - 8900 is the best time to short. Well, atleast for this week ...
however if it breaks 8900, i think we'll see 9000 (atleast close to)
  • #5,508
  • Oct 6, 2009 1:40am Oct 6, 2009 1:40am
Bearish Will Win!!
:: Knowledge is Strength :: :nerd:
  • #5,509
  • Oct 6, 2009 1:45am Oct 6, 2009 1:45am
Quoting blue_z_zz
wow its really a strong resistance i think we have a psychologist on board
That particular resistance only held briefly. But the reversal will indeed happen. I'd not want to be long with that hanging overhead. But after it drops a couple days, then it'd be good to go long again (around 10/9).

  • #5,510
  • Oct 6, 2009 1:49am Oct 6, 2009 1:49am
Quoting G_Man
ok, i am gonna make a statement now and it may sound really silly to you guys ... specially all the long guys out there ...

even though we are only 25 pips away from 8900, i dont think it will go over 8900 this week ... if it was going to happen it would've already happen by now ...

i really think 8870 - 8900 is the best time to short. Well, atleast for this week ...
Makes a lot of sense to me, G_Man
just speculating
  • #5,511
  • Oct 6, 2009 1:49am Oct 6, 2009 1:49am
USD catching a nice bid here on the news that Saudi Central Bank Governor is denying the report from a UK newspaper that certain countries were interested in pricing oil against a basket of currencies instead of the US dollar. Apparently, the initial story weighed heavily on the Greenback.
  • #5,512
  • Oct 6, 2009 1:50am Oct 6, 2009 1:50am
Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) unexpectedly raised at today's meeting interest rates by 25 basis points (bp). Following this decision the main interest in Australia, set at 3.25 percent.
Today's increase surprised the market. Although it was expected that the RBA will be the first major central banks, which will raise interest rates, the vast majority of analysts and economists do not expect this step at this meeting. Today's increase was the first change in the cost of money in April this year. and the first price increase since March 2008.
RBA decision was an impulse to the strengthening Australian dollar against the U.S. and the euro. Rates AUD / USD rose from 0.8760 to 0.8874, while EUR / AUD has fallen from 1.6770 to 1.6585 at least daily. Although in both cases, these impulses do not lead to significant changes in the situation on the charts AUD / USD and EUR / USD, then enter the path of monetary tightening should put the Australian dollar in a privileged situation and to accelerate the trend AUD / USD and declining to EUR / AUD .
Tiny Polar Bear from Poland
  • #5,513
  • Oct 6, 2009 1:56am Oct 6, 2009 1:56am
Quoting thadakman
USD catching a nice bid here on the news that Saudi Central Bank Governor is denying the report from a UK newspaper that certain countries were interested in pricing oil against a basket of currencies instead of the US dollar. Apparently, the initial story weighed heavily on the Greenback.
Yes sure taken a bit of heat off the dollar
  • #5,514
  • Oct 6, 2009 2:20am Oct 6, 2009 2:20am
Quoting G_Man
ok, i am gonna make a statement now and it may sound really silly to you guys ... specially all the long guys out there ...

even though we are only 25 pips away from 8900, i dont think it will go over 8900 this week ... if it was going to happen it would've already happen by now ...

i really think 8870 - 8900 is the best time to short. Well, atleast for this week ...
yes gman, I agree, especially if today's high is not cut in early european session, good time to go short for a 200 - 250 pips move
  • #5,515
  • Oct 6, 2009 2:33am Oct 6, 2009 2:33am
if we close this hour above 8860 im going long again mybe we will see 9087 next stop good luck to all 30 min to decsion time
Bulls Make Money, Bears Make Money, Pigs Get Slaughtered
  • #5,516
  • Oct 6, 2009 2:37am Oct 6, 2009 2:37am
Quoting G_Man
however if it breaks 8900, i think we'll see 9000 (atleast close to)
I beg to differ.

There is a "very strong" possibility that we will see .90 cents within next 24-48 hours.

Now this news has come from a senior currency strategist of Comm bank.

Let see how true/false this is...
  • #5,517
  • Oct 6, 2009 2:41am Oct 6, 2009 2:41am
  •  G_Man
  • | Joined Aug 2009 | Status: getting ready for the next Battle | 781 Posts
Quoting puks
I beg to differ.

There is a "very strong" possibility that we will see .90 cents within next 24-48 hours.

Now this news has come from a senior currency strategist of Comm bank.

Let see how true/false this is...
Which bank?

i dont like'em ... i dont bank with them ...

i bank with Westpac Bank, the bank you can bank on ...
  • #5,518
  • Oct 6, 2009 2:50am Oct 6, 2009 2:50am
Dollar soars after rate rise
October 6, 2009 - 5:25PM
The Australian dollar climbed to its highest since August 2008 after the central bank raised borrowing costs, the first interest-rate increase among the Group of 20 nations, boosting demand for the country's assets.

''This is going to provide tremendous support for the Australian dollar because this is likely to be the start of a series of rate hikes,'' said Richard Grace, chief currency strategist in Sydney at Commonwealth Bank of Australia. ''The Aussie risks going over 90 (US) cents over the next 24 to 48 hours, particularly if this negative US dollar sentiment gathers momentum.''

Australia's currency rose as high as 88.66 U.S. cents, the most since Aug. 11, 2008, before trading 1 per cent stronger at 88.64 cents as of 4:12 p.m. in Sydney, from 87.79 cents in New York yesterday. The Australian dollar advanced 0.5 per cent to 79.02 yen.

At the local 5 p.m. close, the Aussie dollar was even strong buying 88.75-78 US cents, up from Monday's close of 87.34/39 US cents.
  • #5,519
  • Oct 6, 2009 2:54am Oct 6, 2009 2:54am
Quoting G_Man
Which bank?

i dont like'em ... i dont bank with them ...

i bank with Westpac Bank, the bank you can bank on ...
I am also with Westpac mate.

From very reliable sources, westpac "had already priced in this hike" and will sell at .90 cents and so will RBA.

That's why I am holding on till 90 cents to build shorts.

After all, RBA bought some Gazzillions of dollars at .60xx which they need to sell to::

a) Bring the currency down - to increase miners' profit
b) Boom exports
c) Lock some profits and buy at "dips"

That's just my view.
  • #5,520
  • Oct 6, 2009 3:04am Oct 6, 2009 3:04am
Quoting puks
I beg to differ.

There is a "very strong" possibility that we will see .90 cents within next 24-48 hours.

Now this news has come from a senior currency strategist of Comm bank.

Let see how true/false this is...
that sounds quite hard, we'll see
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