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Sonic R. System

  • #6,561
  • Edited 8:35pm Oct 4, 2009 8:03pm | Edited 8:35pm
We seem to have a reverse H&S break on E/U H1 and on D1 tf it looks like the reverse H&S is just starting to complete the right shoulder.

Any thoughts on this?
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  • #6,562
  • Oct 4, 2009 8:43pm Oct 4, 2009 8:43pm
Broke the 38.2 on D1 & looks like the 50 mark will could be the neck break.
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  • #6,563
  • Oct 4, 2009 9:08pm Oct 4, 2009 9:08pm
EU: Based upon H1 chart attached, PA may already be near its highs before another leg down. In this case, M15 may turn out looking like a Double Top. However, also based on H1, PA could be pumped just a bit more (20-30 pips) before a turn around, maybe to R1=1.4652. And we know the FO/LO gangs are totally capable to do this.
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  • #6,564
  • Oct 4, 2009 9:14pm Oct 4, 2009 9:14pm
Hear that, Rastaman? The concensus is "DO NOT REMOVE STOPS!" Forget Tah's idea about that.....totally forget it. Remove it from your mind. Better would be to concentrate on making better entries.....patience, to find just the right time.

Rastaman, Basber and ddaytrader are correct on this. I stand corrected.

What a great thread, made great by the participants. Thanks Basber. Thanks ddaytrader.
  • #6,565
  • Oct 4, 2009 9:22pm Oct 4, 2009 9:22pm
Quoting traderathome
Hear that, Rastaman? The concensus is "DO NOT REMOVE STOPS!" Forget Tah's idea about that.....totally forget it. Remove it from your mind. Better would be to concentrate on making better entries.....patience, to find just the right time.

Rastaman, Basber and ddaytrader are correct on this. I stand corrected.

What a great thread, made great by the participants. Thanks Basber. Thanks ddaytrader.

TAH

I hear ya.


I understood your sense of logic on that one perfectly well and appreciated the thought behind it.

If I was making not so good timed entries and too tight stops,or freaking out with the Heat, it would have helped in the short term.

What do you think about the EU H&S setup?
Does, it look like we may have a viable setup if the neck breaks on the D1 maybe at London or NY open?
Starting to see instead of just looking.
  • #6,566
  • Oct 4, 2009 10:31pm Oct 4, 2009 10:31pm
Quoting traderathome
On what TF are you seeing a H&S for EU, Rastaman?
Rastaman, On D1 chart, if it turns out to be a H & S, I'd say (at this early point) that the neckline is down around 1.4050, a long ways to go, and that would just establish the right point of the neckline. Then upsy again mucho pips to put in the right shoulder.

For now, I am bearish though, and that is consistent with your feelings, I believe.
  • #6,567
  • Oct 4, 2009 11:47pm Oct 4, 2009 11:47pm
Quoting Basber
U/CAD :
Picture 1 & 2 : There Is a Good Shape PB On Daily TF, But As You Can See In Daily And Weekly Charts, It's Ranging Badly. If I See a Short Entry On This Pair , I'll Take It With a Lot Of Carefulness. No Long Entries For Me For This Pair.

A/U :
Picture 3 & 4 : There Is a Nice PB With Very Perfect Space Around It On Weekly TF. But There Is a Strong Uptrend On Daily TF, So I'll...
Mr. Basber (sign of respect), I really appreciate the week preview of forex pairs, and I know the work you are putting into it for no personal gain.....just to share. Thank you.

You analyze quite a few pairs. I am wondering if you trade EJ, and if not, why?
  • #6,568
  • Edited Oct 5, 2009 1:14am Oct 4, 2009 11:59pm | Edited Oct 5, 2009 1:14am
EU M15: With the expectancy of a pump up by FO/LO, the WAVE may turn out something like in the attached chart. Pump could go higher, and it turn out to be a setup for a long trade. But on basis of previously posted H1 chart, PA is bearish. If pump up does not occur, or if it does, but PA does not reach higher than previous high, then that would be a bearish sign, too.

Edit: A long setup might appear something like in chart 2. Caution is warrented if PA starts to move like for a Long trade, because R1 or R1+ area could terminate a head fake in that direction.

Edit: Changed charts. Previous were M5, not M15. I apologize.
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  • #6,569
  • Oct 5, 2009 12:24am Oct 5, 2009 12:24am
TAH

I may well be barking up the wrong tree here with my Long sentiment on EU but, is it possible to view this setup on the H4 as the pic below or is the retracement too short on the Higher Low?
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  • #6,570
  • Oct 5, 2009 12:47am Oct 5, 2009 12:47am
Quoting Rastaman
TAH

I may well be barking up the wrong tree here with my Long sentiment on EU but, is it possible to view this setup on the H4 as the pic below or is the retracement too short on the Higher Low?
The WAVE as you have drawn it is good. And a pump at FO/LO could take PA to Ep area. But beware the Frankfurt Head Fake! It could go into a long trade setup, head fake or not. On the other hand, the Dragon is moving downwards and the 89 ema is rolling over. So, this is a touchy one.

Rastaman, please post the pivots indy shown on your chart displaying the monthy and weekly levels. Thank you.
  • #6,571
  • Oct 5, 2009 1:31am Oct 5, 2009 1:31am
EU M15: PA hit top of short term channel TLs with high relative volume at the price highs. If PA does not breakout this channel topside, then humpty dumpty might have a great fall........ After all, the Big Guns drove it up suddenly last session (Friday), quickly so as to not spend a great deal of volume doing so. Now that they have it up there, it would make sense if highest volumes come at highest prices. It would be consistent with a Pump n' Dump move, of which there have been oh, so many, over so many weeks gone by! So, let's see if it breaks up thru TL, or down thru TL.....
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  • #6,572
  • Oct 5, 2009 1:50am Oct 5, 2009 1:50am
Quoting traderathome
The WAVE as you have drawn it is good. And a pump at FO/LO could take PA to Ep area. But beware the Frankfurt Head Fake! It could go into a long trade setup, head fake or not. On the other hand, the Dragon is moving downwards and the 89 ema is rolling over. So, this is a touchy one.

Rastaman, please post the pivots indy shown on your chart displaying the monthy and weekly levels. Thank you.

I am watching this one in an attempt to learn a great deal from it as you say, it looks tricky and my mind was so set on LONG.

The same flagging as Thursday is going on right before the London open.

The pivot is the one I got from you I think.
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Starting to see instead of just looking.
  • #6,573
  • Oct 5, 2009 2:05am Oct 5, 2009 2:05am
Quoting Rastaman
I am watching this one in an attempt to learn a great deal from it as you say, it looks tricky and my mind was so set on LONG.

The same flagging as Thursday is going on right before the London open.

The pivot is the one I got from you I think.
Thanks for posting it back to me, Rastaman. Thing is, you were showing pivots different than I was getting. And even using the indy you posted back to me, I am not getting the same pivots you are. Wierd. It might have something to do with ODL server Tz. I thought it was on GMT tz, but even TzPivotsMW set to GMT does not show same pivots as you have on your charts.
  • #6,574
  • Oct 5, 2009 2:07am Oct 5, 2009 2:07am
Quoting traderathome
EU M15: PA hit top of short term channel TLs with high relative volume at the price highs. If PA does not breakout this channel topside, then humpty dumpty might have a great fall........ After all, the Big Guns drove it up suddenly last session (Friday), quickly so as to not spend a great deal of volume doing so. Now that they have it up there, it would make sense if highest volumes come at highest prices. It would be consistent with a Pump n' Dump move, of which there have been oh, so many, over so many weeks gone by! So, let's see if it breaks...
Ok, gang. Here comes Humpty Dumpty's fall......
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  • #6,575
  • Oct 5, 2009 2:12am Oct 5, 2009 2:12am
EU M15: Short trade as I currently see it.......

Edit: Maybe tps are too far off. If looking for one closer in, a Tp around Weekly S1 of 1.4572, say 1.4575 might do.
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  • #6,576
  • Oct 5, 2009 2:19am Oct 5, 2009 2:19am
T

I am watching the volume and it appears that there is not much interest in dumping it yet. Are they waiting for something?
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  • #6,577
  • Oct 5, 2009 2:25am Oct 5, 2009 2:25am
Quoting Rastaman
T

I am watching the volume and it appears that there is not much interest in dumping it yet. Are they waiting for something?
US open yet to come. Betwix now and then perhaps some whipsawing. US open traders may pump it too. Now, since the pump on Friday, that they have it up here, why not take longer advantage before the big selloff that drives it down again....? Who knows, I sure don't. But I remain bearish on this.
  • #6,578
  • Oct 5, 2009 3:21am Oct 5, 2009 3:21am
EU M15: PA has returned up to lower TL, to test it. And it looks like it is failing there.
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  • #6,579
  • Oct 5, 2009 3:47am Oct 5, 2009 3:47am
I am just watching this play out with great interest.
Seems like the Monthly R1 is still holding & the big boys are not jumping in yet.
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  • #6,580
  • Oct 5, 2009 5:12am Oct 5, 2009 5:12am
EU: Just ranging....this may go nowhere until US open. I'm going to get some rest.

Domas4, check your email.
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