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  • #148,961
  • Oct 4, 2009 6:17am Oct 4, 2009 6:17am
I also guess equities and commodities are due to a pullback, this could make USD regain some ground, maybe after some more fall as reaction to the G7
  • #148,962
  • Oct 4, 2009 7:37am Oct 4, 2009 7:37am
The EURUSD broke down its 4-5 minor waves on my daily chart (Fig.1) , retraces and will likely test the 1.44 level.

It breached the short-term highest low rising line represented by the left side of the triangle at 1.45214.

According to my calculation it should in theory retrace to 1.4250 (i.e. 1.4575-(1.48400-1.45214)).

However, a weekly view of the EURUSD (Fig.2) shows a support in the 1.44 levels. This support is not highly significant (p<0.005) but still valid.

A. If prices do not break down the long-term February rising line I drew (Fig.2) and finds support at 1.44, it will probably rise again and test the 1.50 level (1.44 + (1.44-1.38*)).

B. The other scenario, if it breaks the February long-term uptrend, is to retrace down, towards 1.38 (my higher low labelled #2, cf. Fig.1).

The present macro-economic situation, the dollar index, and the major US Index futures (Dow and S&P) favor the former possibility rather than the latter, in my view.

Best regards.

Dott. Claudio Amoruso-Ginsberg
The A-G Trading Group

*highest low #2, Fig.1
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Fig.1 daily.gif Size: 23 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Fig.2 weekly.gif Size: 18 KB
  • #148,963
  • Oct 4, 2009 7:43am Oct 4, 2009 7:43am
I posted my weekly & daily charts on my blog
  • #148,964
  • Oct 4, 2009 7:57am Oct 4, 2009 7:57am
not forgetting the pro usd comments made in this weekend lol
  • #148,965
  • Oct 4, 2009 8:17am Oct 4, 2009 8:17am
Against Euro and Loonie.

Hrd to see upward momo in this pair holding on. But you never know!
  • #148,966
  • Oct 4, 2009 8:48am Oct 4, 2009 8:48am
Quoting TIckerShuffl
Against Euro and Loonie.

Hrd to see upward momo in this pair holding on. But you never know!
Perhaps & equally hard to believe it breaking now actually before 1.4444/4337/ 1.4280 level last after over 11 months trending up & still holding proudly..I will also play mostly long this week.
fontu
Attached Image
Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #148,967
  • Oct 4, 2009 9:52am Oct 4, 2009 9:52am
Quoting Atlast
[b]Ireland Votes yes to EU treaty/B]
www.dailytelegraph.com

"The treaty would make it easier to reach decisions in the EU now that it has 27 member states and create the posts of a long-term president and foreign policy chief to give it more say and reinforce its image as a global force."-


Could the Euro make a challenge for reserve currency in the future, hmmmm.

........
And, now today the Observer reports World bank Zoeller saying
" Euro and renminbi tipped to join dollar as reserve currencies"
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2...nk-power-shift

Stay ahead of the game guys.
I won't be posting much this week as I will be busy doing other things as well as trading.
  • #148,968
  • Oct 4, 2009 10:03am Oct 4, 2009 10:03am
i am so excited to see whats up in about 8 hours time !
  • #148,969
  • Oct 4, 2009 10:09am Oct 4, 2009 10:09am
Claudio,

In my analysis the past few weeks, I too share the same sentiment on EURUSD dropping all the way to the 1.42xx levels as well...

I hope it pans out....I am already in position for this fall since prices fell from 1.48xx...

Thank you for the detailed analysis...

Quoting camoruso
The EURUSD broke down its 4-5 minor waves on my daily chart (Fig.1) , retraces and will likely test the 1.44 level.

It breached the short-term highest low rising line represented by the left side of the triangle at 1.45214.

According to my calculation it should in theory retrace to 1.4250 (i.e. 1.4575-(1.48400-1.45214)).

However, a weekly view of the EURUSD (Fig.2) shows a support in the 1.44 levels. This support is not highly significant (p<0.005) but still valid.

A. If prices do not break down the long-term February rising line I drew...
In Charts We Trust!
  • #148,970
  • Oct 4, 2009 10:12am Oct 4, 2009 10:12am
If EUR does go long, I will wait for it to travel all the way up to 1.4700 - 1.4800 before shorting again.......in the meantime, I still hold my shorts at those levels...

Quoting fontu
Perhaps & equally hard to believe it breaking now actually before 1.4444/4337/ 1.4280 level last after over 11 months trending up & still holding proudly..I will also play mostly long this week.
fontu
In Charts We Trust!
  • #148,971
  • Oct 4, 2009 10:14am Oct 4, 2009 10:14am
What exactly is a Koala?

Quoting trading801
i am so excited to see whats up in about 8 hours time !
In Charts We Trust!
  • #148,972
  • Oct 4, 2009 11:33am Oct 4, 2009 11:33am
does anybody really think that the usd is really gonna lose much more value given all the foreign reserves china and japan hold in usd, they have aqlready lost 20% of there reserves in devaluation just since march, i believe you are about to see massive dollar stength coming in the near future, given all the work behind the scenes, the us treasury, secy of state to reaasure other nation of the continued viability of the dollar, THE US HAS NO OTHER OPTION BUT TO STRENGTHEN, SOON! i am interested in anybodies thoughts on this?
  • #148,973
  • Oct 4, 2009 1:02pm Oct 4, 2009 1:02pm
It's possible for EUR to rebounce back to 4700 by completing the ABC corrections wave, then go bearish.
  • #148,974
  • Oct 4, 2009 1:04pm Oct 4, 2009 1:04pm
How's sunday is going for everyone ?
  • #148,975
  • Oct 4, 2009 2:04pm Oct 4, 2009 2:04pm
Looks like Eur/Usd might open higher

Forex
It's All About Attitude ...
  • #148,976
  • Oct 4, 2009 2:06pm Oct 4, 2009 2:06pm
Between 1.98 - 2.00
Traders are smartasses
  • #148,977
  • Edited 2:18pm Oct 4, 2009 2:08pm | Edited 2:18pm
Quoting Spsantos
Between 1.98 - 2.00
Where did they drop that nasty thing?
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #148,978
  • Oct 4, 2009 2:10pm Oct 4, 2009 2:10pm
5000x12/1.98=30303 eur
Quoting Spsantos
Between 1.98 - 2.00
  • #148,979
  • Oct 4, 2009 2:20pm Oct 4, 2009 2:20pm
the market opend at 1,45984
  • #148,980
  • Oct 4, 2009 2:25pm Oct 4, 2009 2:25pm
Seems like every one in here cant wait for the opening break, and its look like my sitting tight is going to last several hours before i rise my stick, i have no rush ..anyway good luck every one and trade well
"Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication" leonardo da vinci
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