Elliott Wave Counting with EG

Could you explain "fibo probabilities": what do they mean, how are they generated etc? Thanks,

R

PS. My 30min chart below.

great, thank you very much

Possible bounce off the Daily Pivot 1.5922.

Low of 1.5925

Daily S1 1.5923

Rocroy,

Fib Probabilities on my chart are the levels I have ticked for possible FIB retracements or Possible FIB Projections taking into account the Guidelines for projecting price levels using FIBS for Elliott Waves

EG

Thanks EG, all clear now.

A possible wave count for Cable.

Watch how possible w2 retrace towards the 61.8% and a little more.

Projecting wave 3 and wave 5 using wave 1

We often see wave 2 retracing wave 1 from 50% seldom) , usually 61.8% and sometimes more but never more than 100% of wave 1.

wave 4 is projected to be the complement of wave 2 as retracement of wave 2 plus retracement of wave 4 usually equal to 100% in terms of percentage.

All just guidelines of what are usually observed. But these are not hard rules that we say will always happen.

Just potential guidelines.

Key still is managing your risks to protect your capital.

EG


EG

5min chart still shows possiblity of an expanded FLAT.

going up the time frame to 30 min, my wave 32 has taken almost the same time as wave 334 now.

wave 332 was a sharp UP move so I expect wave 334 to be an expanded correction

which leads me to think that seeing wave 334? now may just be the development of a 334B wave down as a zigzag while what you see as WXYXxZ on my chart is just the wave 334A.

So if price does not exceed 138.2 percent of 334Ba for this possible 334B, then price could still go up for the wave334Bc before it continues to go down to finish off wave 334Bc

Be not confused as I initially was while swithching TFs The expanded flat I initially wrote about was just the possible b within the wave 334B.

I still see the higher time frame Daily as down while weekly is at a level where it could still bounce ( Upside ) and remember that what you see on your higher timeframes can stay that way for quite sometime.

On the lower time frames, we need to have a really good perception of time in relation to wave development. (which I am still trying to wrap my brain around it ).

For as long as there is no overlap, I move up to the next motive wave of the structure. if there is an overlap but it subdivides into a motive wave in the lower time frame, then I consider it as a motive wave in the lower TF which forms part of the motive wave structure on the higher timeframe or an A or a C of a corrective wave in the same time frame or the higher timeframe.

EG

m30 chart

possible 334A as a Leading Diagonal with a Throwover
followed by a Zigzag 334B with or without an expanded internal b wave

to form a down move to magenta c.

that should complete a possible Head and Shoulder pattern if 334Bc = 334Ba

EG

Please excuse the clutter on my charts.

Personally I do not get confused with all the lines and squibbles on my chart.
Some of you may find it confusing. But they are just all zigzags drawn manually based on other indicators and mostly fib levels as guides for retracement and price projection.

Anyway, here is a chart on the Daily TF

we can see here a possible head and shoulders pattern with projections indicated by possible support levels based on a naked chart. Up to you if you want to include Guidelines with FIBS to project your targets coinciding with this possible support levels.

Just always remember that though the long term bias is to the downside, there will always be retracements along the way.

EG

For those with an open mind,

I do not see anything wrong trying to look into other ways on how people or traders look at the market.

Though price may seem to have the potential to still go up, if you view the daily chart and see how price performs toward lunar cycles, Cable is still possible to come down toward the Oct 4 date which has +/-3.

this is just something to think about for others who also are open to what other traders look into.

EG

m15

looking for a possible wave C if this is indeed an expanded flat.

projection is towards 100 and 161.8 1.60059 or 1.60572

EG

Possible wave 3 on m30 likely to be in progress

Wave structure on m15 though may already show development of a 5th wave without the 4 overlapping with wave 1.

In this case I would go for the m39 view, considering the projected targets on the m30 chart

EG

Hello EG ,

.. I likeed your post about having an open mind .. .. so in the same context .. here is my view on EW count on Gold USDIX and EUR .. guess it is widely known that forex market moves in pairs .. in that sense .. EUR and GBP and USDIX are quite related .. Gold and DJ as well ...

so for Gold , the count I see indicates that we have finished wave 4 on the daily and going into wave 5 .

USDIX , as well finished wave 4 and starting wave 5 .. this time to the downside which strengthen the EUR and GBP position .

and at last .. EUR finished C leg of wave 2.. in which C = A ... and B was almost a flat correction ... and we are preparing for wave 3 to the upside ..
I admit though that I didn`t look in the past couple of days at GBP .. but I assume from what I can see on these charts .. that GBP is going to follow suit with them as well ...

Finally out on 1 Long for just 11 pips.

Price still likely to go up creating an imbalance on my hedge.

However, I see price hitting a Schiff's median line on the 5min and the 100SMA on the 15min. 1min shows possibility of another high due to the lack of divergence still.

I may re enter if it retraces to a likeable level meaning if there are other indicators confirming good profit opportunity to re enter because price has already hurdled an area of resistance on the 15min chart.

MN..... I will post some EURUSD charts later and maybe Gold. I do not have US index on my platform. willtry my hand at these pair and commodity.

EG
ok. new high on the 1min before I could post this.

out on the last 2 Long trades as it hits Daily Pivot @ 1.6022.

UPDATE

if price drops and finds support in the range of 1.5968-80 (avoiding an overlap with w1) while completing what I refer to as the top mound on the 15min MACD then likely that a 5th wave up will develop to complete Divergence prior to coming down for the long wave 334Bc down

Update 2

Remember that if we are expecting a wave 4 some guidelines would be

1. it is usually complementary with wave 2 in terms of percentage to come up with 100%.

2. if wave 2 is a sharp correction then wave 4 is expected to be likely an expanded correction which will take longer than that it took wave 2 to develop.

3. wave 4 usually retraces toward the end of wave 4 of the previous wave 3 of the same degree.

4. usually wave 2s are sharp corrections that tend to range from 61.8- almost 100% retracement of wave 1 while wave 4 usually retraces wave 3 by 38.2%

EG

Sorry ... was just watching the charts while teaching my son the different Knots for his assignment. could not keep writing for the comments.

Winning is not always about earning pips. but it is always a bonus.

like they say, priority is to protect your capital even if it meant just reducing your loss or even your drawdown.

I can not add any more short positions because I am still stuck with my 3 short trades. In my early years of trading, I would run after the price like now when it seems to be falling. then later to regret it.

As for the EURUSD charts, I may have a different view to what you have MN.

Your view starts with the Daily. However when I check the weekly, I only see a 3wave structure down from the highs of 1.6038 down to 1.2329. So instead of A or 1, I have more bias towards wave A down then wave B for that corrective FLAT wave which may seem to have ended specially with that pin bar like at the last top on the weekly followed by another bearish candle still in the forming. But we will need 3-5 more candles to confirm it with candlestick patterns.

Also if you check on the monthly, for me it looks more like a corrective wave. I just providing an alternative wave count. and you may still be correct with your wave count.

In the mean time I will be checking other tools as price develops on this one.

EG

ok. getting bored waiting for price to get out of this sideways correction from 5min to 30min chart.

Let us check how price is doing in relation to Median lines. you have the Andrew's Pitchfork ant the Schiff's Median Line.

5min PF is slightly turning down in angle as compared to the 15/30min Pitchfork which is more angled to the upside.

Interestingly, it would be noted that price has bounced 5 times on a Support trendline which is also the Lower median line of the 15/30min Pitchfork.

price is also being kept within the range of the resistance trendline and the support trendline in a 30min chart.

with EWA alone, there would be too many possibilities. but using other tools I can have more confidence to say tha a higher probability would be a continued downward moveusing the area of resistance shown where price has been locked and has been hammering consistently the support trendline as compared to the resistance trendline.

Cable Sell off by US lunchtime causing the break of the support trendline on the 5-15-30 min charts

which is now being re-tested likely to turn resistance.

unless we get a pinbar on the 30min chart..

price is now between a small 30min upward pitchfork and a bigger 60min downward pitchfork... as in inbetween but outside of it

EG

shows the breach of the support trendline from the 30min chart viewed on a 5min chart.

we also see it re-tested and breached again to the upside while forming a 5 wave motive structure when it re-tested that trendline

since I see a wave wave motive structure from 1.60134 to the low of 1.59265, then followed by a much smaller 5 wave motive structure as ity retraces that move (counter-trend) then breaching the former support trendline

then I would think there would be more upside to this so I will be waiting for a retrace of the re-test move if it comes down to 61.8% retrace towards 1.5941

EG

UPDATE
now seeing 3 retraces when I only need 2 retraces for w2 and w4.

3 retrace is only 38.2% of potential wave 1. quite slim for a wave 2. more like a "b" wave of a zigzag.

Update

unless this possible wave 2 which I am watching unfold is an expanded flat

now ... it only egts this hard when you keep watch on the lower time frames and try to label your wave structure from there.

if you have a wide SL, then go for the higher TFs.

I just like the challenge of watching waves potentially unforld even on the lower TFs. (sometimes )

Cable 1hr Possible Scenario if price does not breach 1.5923.

However, if 1.5923 is breached then we go back to the expanded flat scenario.

15min chart shows a bearish signal from multiple moving averages while the 4hr stochastics is nearing oversold levels. But the lower time frames are already oversold so I am giving the lower time frame stochastics more time to go up before joining the 4hr stochastics to the oversold level finally.

price is still under areas of resistance from the 15min, 30min and 60min time frames. so likely trend is still down .

EG