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Psych Levels, Pivots, and Trendlines - Resurrected

  • #4,081
  • Sep 30, 2009 8:30am Sep 30, 2009 8:30am
didnt post here from a long time, really busy these days will try to post mre. here is my only trade till now, didnt have enough time in front of the screen. entered after the bullish candlestick closed above the triangles's trendline and the xx75. out at the R2 line.
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  • #4,082
  • Sep 30, 2009 8:48am Sep 30, 2009 8:48am
Quoting no0odle
excellent analysis islander as usual, but may i ask how do you know if a level holds or will hold? by candlestics or just after alot of screen time you get a feel of it???

If you go back a few months and read thru my posts you'll see how I trade.

Specific entries will be around "a level" either after a reaction seen first on the 1 min chart - or by the PA in Euro or Swissy.

Other limit orders will be placed around a level - especially like today, when I'm seeing distribution....and yes, a few thousand hours of screen time does make it clearer...http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon12.gif
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #4,083
  • Sep 30, 2009 9:05am Sep 30, 2009 9:05am
[quote=Islander;3105055]LOL - distribution confirmed and now acted upon..........by the market.

As I said earlier, the highest volume was around the R2 level at 6090 with price sideways in a 40 / 50 pip range. The early NY guys managed to move it up on high volume to touch the 6025 level with the high a much lower volume 5 min spinning top - my sell limit was at 6022.

From then it drifted down into the ADP report which came in at - 254K vs - 200K triggering a great sell off.

I closed the last of my shorts at the 6025 level and have started reselling off the 6050 level.....[/quote]


I posted in the VSA thread that my target was the high volume area around the 5950 level......just hit http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon7.gif
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #4,084
  • Sep 30, 2009 12:18pm Sep 30, 2009 12:18pm
I mentioned a few weeks ago about Wed announcements of oil inventories.
I had to be away this afternoon. Grrr. 300 points & still climbing.

Reading the 5m chart you could see the buying in all the bear candles early this afternoon down to just below confluence of MS1 & psych of 66.25 & todays open 66.45, 2 spinning tops in half hour before announcement.

Ideal setup for traders of this thread. Sorry no charts as on other computer & cant transfer data.

Loonie - After being pushed up to weekly trendline at 3.05, loonie has fallen 100 points. Aaaaaaghhhhhhhh.
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  • #4,085
  • Oct 1, 2009 2:17am Oct 1, 2009 2:17am
Quoting Barry Cade
I mentioned a few weeks ago about Wed announcements of oil inventories.
I had to be away this afternoon. Grrr. 300 points & still climbing.

Reading the 5m chart you could see the buying in all the bear candles early this afternoon down to just below confluence of MS1 & psych of 66.25 & todays open 66.45, 2 spinning tops in half hour before announcement.

Ideal setup for traders of this thread. Sorry no charts as on other computer & cant transfer data.

Loonie - After being pushed up to weekly trendline at 3.05, loonie has fallen 100 points....
Hi BC - was this the chart that you wanted to post? - I've just started a demo with a Gibraltar broker as I'm looking into an IBC there and they have oil and quite a few other non FX products.....
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Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #4,086
  • Oct 1, 2009 2:24am Oct 1, 2009 2:24am
Quoting Islander
Hi BC - was this the chart that you wanted to post? - I've just started a demo with a Gibraltar broker as I'm looking into an IBC there and they have oil and quite a few other non FX products.....

Here's the run up to the announcement which was at the gold time line - I'll start watching this as something different to trade - especially as it can all be done on MT4, although more expensive than trading via the futures
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Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #4,087
  • Oct 1, 2009 2:30am Oct 1, 2009 2:30am
Quoting Islander
Hi BC - was this the chart that you wanted to post? - I've just started a demo with a Gibraltar broker as I'm looking into an IBC there and they have oil and quite a few other non FX products.....
Yep, it was the chart of the Loonie as it shows the PA & 100 pt move following yesterdays data.

I couldnt do oil chart from this computer as Alpari doesnt include data. However my other computer is set up for MT4 on ICM which includes Oil & Indices (EV suggested) & I couldnt transfer the data to this thread.

As its quiet I will see if I can transfer a chart to clarify.
  • #4,088
  • Oct 1, 2009 2:33am Oct 1, 2009 2:33am
Quoting Barry Cade
Yep, it was the chart of the Loonie as it shows the PA & 100 pt move following yesterdays data.

I couldnt do oil chart from this computer as Alpari doesnt include data. However my other computer is set up for MT4 on ICM which includes Oil & Indices (EV suggested) & I couldnt transfer the data to this thread.

As its quiet I will see if I can transfer a chart to clarify.
I use a memory stick to save a chart from my other 'puter and then just plug it in to this 'puter when I want to make a post.....
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #4,089
  • Oct 1, 2009 2:47am Oct 1, 2009 2:47am
I've now finished the months aggressive trading - my target of a 100% return was hit in 17 trading days and then I pushed harder and hit a 63% return in 3 days - all using similar trades to those that I've posted here.

Now I'll get back to a less stressful level of gearing where 50 pips a day can return 100% in 40 trading days - allowing for loosing days etc I'm thinking that 60 days is a more realistic target.....TWT http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon12.gif

A late night after I cooked dinner for some friends, my first attempt - we're all still alive! - I've had a slow start....there was a clear double bottom at the 5925 level just before FO for a move of ~65 pips into LO....the wide range red candle into that low was mirrored in Euro and Swissy, thus dollar related.....
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #4,090
  • Oct 1, 2009 2:48am Oct 1, 2009 2:48am
Quoting Islander
Here's the run up to the announcement which was at the gold time line - I'll start watching this as something different to trade - especially as it can all be done on MT4, although more expensive than trading via the futures
You beat me to it. No need for me to add a chart!
Notice all the candles on the down move on the left hand side all have tails. Looks like accummulation. Then bam!!! 300 points.

For anyone not familiar with oil, charts for WTI (not WTF but West Texas Intermediate) can also be shown as US Light Sweet Crude. Yes, its riskier than forex & SLs need to be bigger but sometimes you get setups like yesterdays. Mega-wins in short space of time.

Having recently started watching the Loonie on Wednesdays in time for the oil inventories report, I would highly recommend watching for usual "thread" setups/.
  • #4,091
  • Oct 1, 2009 3:14am Oct 1, 2009 3:14am
OK - I'm long off the pull back to the 30 ema / MS1 level at 5960 with my target just under the 6000 level - stop now at BE +10 after the LH in a wide range high vol green candle - I was out of the room so I missed exiting manually for ~20 pips......

Edit: stop hit for +10
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #4,092
  • Oct 1, 2009 3:34am Oct 1, 2009 3:34am
Guys, Ive not seen any commentary anywhere, but did the Bank interfere in the markets again yesterday afternoon as Franc seems to have moved down 100 points in a number of currencies?
  • #4,093
  • Oct 1, 2009 3:38am Oct 1, 2009 3:38am
Quoting Islander
I've now finished the months aggressive trading - my target of a 100% return was hit in 17 trading days and then I pushed harder and hit a 63% return in 3 days - all using similar trades to those that I've posted here.

Now I'll get back to a less stressful level of gearing where 50 pips a day can return 100% in 40 trading days - allowing for loosing days etc I'm thinking that 60 days is a more realistic target.....TWT http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon12.gif

A late night after I cooked dinner for some friends, my first...

Islander have losing days!! Don't believe you !
  • #4,094
  • Oct 1, 2009 3:51am Oct 1, 2009 3:51am
Quoting Porkpie
Islander have losing days!! Don't believe you !

LOL - they do happen, although now less frequently as I've got more disciplined and now rarely take impulse trades......
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #4,095
  • Oct 1, 2009 7:22am Oct 1, 2009 7:22am
Oil, Dow, Dax, FTSE, all gone down this morning & US currency movements, are the big dogs expecting bad news for $ over the next couple of hours that will see a greenback sell-off??
  • #4,096
  • Oct 1, 2009 7:28am Oct 1, 2009 7:28am
Quoting Barry Cade
Oil, Dow, Dax, FTSE, all gone down this morning & US currency movements, are the big dogs expecting bad news for $ over the next couple of hours that will see a greenback sell-off??
As I understand it from COT data big dogs long $.
  • #4,097
  • Oct 1, 2009 7:44am Oct 1, 2009 7:44am
Quoting Islander
I've now finished the months aggressive trading - my target of a 100% return was hit in 17 trading days and then I pushed harder and hit a 63% return in 3 days - all using similar trades to those that I've posted here.

Now I'll get back to a less stressful level of gearing where 50 pips a day can return 100% in 40 trading days - allowing for loosing days etc I'm thinking that 60 days is a more realistic target.....TWT http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon12.gif

A late night after I cooked dinner for some friends, my first...
Incredible trade.

My september result just 17%, not bad for me.
  • #4,098
  • Oct 1, 2009 7:56am Oct 1, 2009 7:56am
Quoting Vantage
As I understand it from COT data big dogs long $.
Thats interesting. I can understand that generally (& esp CHF after more intervention yesterday), but not against £. Anyway, back to "trading what we see"
  • #4,099
  • Oct 1, 2009 8:02am Oct 1, 2009 8:02am
talking of this. Nice support line to trade from.
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  • #4,100
  • Edited 11:44am Oct 1, 2009 8:16am | Edited 11:44am
Unusually for me, I've just completed a trade on the 15m usd/cad. I was aware of the news announcements around that time, which is why I kept a very close eye on it.
I watched the consolidation forming along the pivot line and then the drop through the xx25 psych-line. I wanted to enter below the low of that candle, and I thought it wasn't going to happen when the long-legged candle started forming. Eventually, however, it started falling again, and I got in as indicated. I was keeping a very sharp eye on this one due to the news, and got out towards the end of the marabozu candle.
Bit nervy with this one, so I think I'll give news announcements a wide berth in future.

Edit: This chart is going back towards the basic acumen method. Pivots and psych-lines only. I've just watched his first video again, and I'd forgotten just how beautifully simple his method is.
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