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  • #5,901
  • Sep 30, 2009 8:59pm Sep 30, 2009 8:59pm
Quoting strat
Why don't they just stick to making watches, knives and cheese and leave the SF alone?
To sell them.
  • #5,902
  • Sep 30, 2009 10:27pm Sep 30, 2009 10:27pm
Report by the ST. Louis Fed:

A survey of monetary authorities’
intervention practices reveals that a number of
monetary authorities do intervene with some frequency
in foreign exchange (mostly spot) markets.
The desire to check short-run trends or correct
longer-term misalignments often motivates intervention,
whereas the size of intervention often
depends on market reaction to initial trades.
Although intervention typically takes place during
business hours, most monetary authorities will
also intervene outside of these hours, if necessary.
And, while there is unanimous agreement that
intervention does influence exchange rates, there
is much disagreement about the horizon over
which the full effect of this influence is felt, with
estimates ranging from a few minutes to more

than a few days.
  • #5,903
  • Sep 30, 2009 10:50pm Sep 30, 2009 10:50pm
Stepping again to the byplay of the EURUSD and USDCHF charts, one must note the disaparity of the recent reactions to weekly S/R. The EURO has yet to confirm, while USDCHF makes an effort to reclaim as we speak.
  • #5,904
  • Sep 30, 2009 10:50pm Sep 30, 2009 10:50pm
Don't forget, it's the wretched NFP 'rinsing and wide spreads n spikes' day tomorrow! May be an idea to close stop tight this eve on USD denominated pairs or even close positions.
Trade less and become more profitable!
  • #5,905
  • Sep 30, 2009 11:02pm Sep 30, 2009 11:02pm
i wish the nfp would disappear. Trading is only 3 weeks long a month really because it makes that week have little movement.
  • #5,906
  • Oct 1, 2009 12:09am Oct 1, 2009 12:09am
Quoting Alexandra
Report by the ST. Louis Fed:
... there is much disagreement about the horizon over
which the full effect of this influence is felt, with
estimates ranging from a few minutes to more
than a few days.
... or several months. SNB has been intervening since March and managed to keep EURCHF between 1.5050-1.5350. Anyway, I agree re. disagreement about its effect though I don't prefer to take a position against a central bank.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURCHF-Daily.jpg Size: 131 KB
  • #5,907
  • Oct 1, 2009 12:20am Oct 1, 2009 12:20am
I am watching this DSRI to have a better idea where USD will go next.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: DOLLAR INDEX-Daily.jpg Size: 151 KB
  • #5,908
  • Oct 1, 2009 12:26am Oct 1, 2009 12:26am
Watching for retracement to ride the trend.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDCHF-Daily.jpg Size: 134 KB
  • #5,909
  • Oct 1, 2009 12:58am Oct 1, 2009 12:58am
Only 30 or so pages into the thread as taking it a bit at a time and letting things sink in. After giving up my addiction to indicators a while back I was pretty reluctant to put any wiggly lines on my chart but I bit the bullet and threw them on there yesterday and wow...I like what I see.

I do like the trendlines on the weekly for trend and confirmation as a bounce/break shows clear but wonder how many of you use the weekly worms on the daily chart ie the 100 & 250...sure its good when everything lines up but it seems a trend has to be running on the daily longer than the lifespan of most children's goldfish before the weekly 20 follows through.

I like to learn the way things are being taught and only when I understand something try to customise it so if strat and the long-time members here say leave them on there I will...especially if given a hint why :-)
  • #5,910
  • Oct 1, 2009 1:01am Oct 1, 2009 1:01am
The 'new' trend Blackie? Look's like we may have a DSRI switch from R to S? I would like to see the .9350 last high of the previous down trend broken before considering long?
Trade less and become more profitable!
  • #5,911
  • Oct 1, 2009 1:05am Oct 1, 2009 1:05am
Quoting Blackeagle
I am watching this DSRI to have a better idea where USD will go next.
Looks like the trend would continue? There is nothing there on that chart to make one consider any thing other than short? No bottom forming or being put in and no major DRSI breaks North or tests and all PA below nice 45 degree down sloping MAs
Trade less and become more profitable!
  • #5,912
  • Oct 1, 2009 1:07am Oct 1, 2009 1:07am
Quoting dre3029
i wish the nfp would disappear. Trading is only 3 weeks long a month really because it makes that week have little movement.
LOL - Me too - I have often thought exactly the same!
Trade less and become more profitable!
  • #5,913
  • Oct 1, 2009 1:13am Oct 1, 2009 1:13am
Quoting Grimweasel
The 'new' trend Blackie? Look's like we may have a DSRI switch from R to S? I would like to see the .9350 last high of the previous down trend broken before considering long?
Trend is already up (since April 09). We have long term DSRI broken, tested, and then major SR broken and now waiting for a retest.
  • #5,914
  • Oct 1, 2009 1:41am Oct 1, 2009 1:41am
Quoting Blackeagle
Trend is already up (since April 09). We have long term DSRI broken, tested, and then major SR broken and now waiting for a retest.
Thanks Blackeagle - The intermediate trend is defo Up, I was alluding to the major down DSRI that you showed on the chart and what poss 'action' we could see around such a long trem TL. I would imagine a test of the .87 level where the SR meets the DSRI line. Seems like a good place for a poss bounce and test of that support?
Trade less and become more profitable!
  • #5,915
  • Oct 1, 2009 1:45am Oct 1, 2009 1:45am
Quoting forexample
Only 30 or so pages into the thread as taking it a bit at a time and letting things sink in. After giving up my addiction to indicators a while back I was pretty reluctant to put any wiggly lines on my chart but I bit the bullet and threw them on there yesterday and wow...I like what I see.

I do like the trendlines on the weekly for trend and confirmation as a bounce/break shows clear but wonder how many of you use the weekly worms on the daily chart ie the 100 & 250...sure its good when everything lines up but it seems a trend has to be running...
Hello and welcome to the thread!

I use the 'weekly worms' on my daily charts but I do admit it can be destracting at times. I'm toying with the idea of a double screen approach on my MT4 and limiting down to 8 pairs. Not fully decided on the 8 forex pairs yet, but I want to see the worker and boss together at the same time to look for convergance / divergance bewteen the 2 etc whilst keeping me on track with the boss during woker decisions.

I only use them when they are 'trending' and pay little attention to them during consolidation periods (ie flat).
Trade less and become more profitable!
  • #5,916
  • Oct 1, 2009 2:49am Oct 1, 2009 2:49am
Quoting Blackeagle
Be careful, everyone, with CHF long trades, as there was another intervention by SNB last night. As you know SNB announced that they'll intervene to weaken CHF especially against EUR. Anyone wants to fight against a central bank? There are always other currencies to trade nowadays like GBPUSD, AUDUSD, EURGBP.
Thx for confirming. I raised this issue this morning on another (intraday) thread where most users in UK, but nobody responded, & nothing on a couple of news feeds. 100 point move in a number of CHF currencies looked like interference to me.

I should have known better & should have returned to the experts on this thread!

Thx Blackie
  • #5,917
  • Oct 1, 2009 3:52am Oct 1, 2009 3:52am
Quoting elitejets
Hello all
Here is a nice looking chart
Nicola et al,

Do you ever enter a position that you originally missed if it still looks valid based on your plan?

Let's say you are Strat and you are over in China mucking it up on stage. The crowd loves you so much you stay all night.

After you finish up and get some sleep you go back to your charts and see something similar to what Nicola has here (shooting star), but it is a day later.

The bottom of the star was breached and normally you would have been filled if your order was in. Everything is lined up as an A trade based on your rules, but price has retraced back into the SS (let's say within the real body).

Do you enter the trade at a better price now or just pass?
  • #5,918
  • Edited 5:08am Oct 1, 2009 4:44am | Edited 5:08am
Quoting One14
Nicola et al,

Do you ever enter a position that you originally missed if it still looks valid based on your plan?

Let's say you are Strat and you are over in China mucking it up on stage. The crowd loves you so much you stay all night.

After you finish up and get some sleep you go back to your charts and see something similar to what Nicola has here (shooting star), but it is a day later.

The bottom of the star was breached and normally you would have been filled if your order was in. Everything is lined up as an A trade based on your rules,...
Sounds like you are losing confidence in your original trade. I would look closely at the setup & ask yourself "what has changed?"

If nothing has changed then surely you are just looking for a better entry on intraday PA?

Al
  • #5,919
  • Oct 1, 2009 5:05am Oct 1, 2009 5:05am
I was sent this by a friend - struck a cord (ignore #2 as it's releated to a 5min system that we don't trade) but the rest is true - just posted similar on my Blog funnily enough! (It's from another thread here on FF)

Trading doesn't have to be any harder than we choose for it to be. 90% of the "difficulty" in trading is self-induced.

I really have seen major improvements since adapting the following:

1) News is for reporters. I have yet to read a economic number that told me "Buy the Yen, and then close out at 110.90". When it does, I will listen.

2) Trailing a run really IS huge. I prefer to use a two bar stop, as in trail behind by two bars. But, ONLY when it's with the overall trend. I shorted the EUR/USD today based on something I saw and liked. You better believe I had a T/P target put in with the order. You can swim against the current of a river for only so long. (Turns out I could have had an extra 20 pips, but who is counting? 106 works well enough for me.)

3) Anytime I begin to think about what's going on in the markets, it's pointless. This is pseudo-similar to #1.

4) And most importantly.....I risk 1% on each trade. I don't say 1% is perfect for all of you, but it is for me. I know, no matter what happens, 1% isn't going to bankrupt me. When I keep in mind it's only 1%, I can let a trade move a little before getting out. (Or more than likely....shaken out.) Losses happen, although not very often. ;-)

Since I have adapted #4.....my win ratio is about 75-80%. I can lose a few pips here and there.

Like you said, it's all about gaining in the long run.

For anyone starting out. Take your deposit and multiply it by 4%/month for ten years.......there's your recipe for success. (Again, it doesn't have to be 4%.....but that's only 1% a week.....which I feel is reasonable.) The biggest problem is that we were all told that Forex can give 1000% a month. It can. Just like I could win the lottery tomorrow.

More than likely, it will take 100%.

Slow, boring, steady gains. Forex isn't exciting. I am sure Feb will agree with that statement.

Ok, off the soapbox.....love the threads.

Clockwork Chris
Trade less and become more profitable!
  • #5,920
  • Oct 1, 2009 5:35am Oct 1, 2009 5:35am
Quoting Barry Cade
Sounds like you are losing confidence in your original trade. I would look closely at the setup & ask yourself "what has changed?"

If nothing has changed then surely you are just looking for a better entry on intraday PA?

Al
No, not losing confidence. Just missed the initial entry.
I have not done this. If I miss a setup I move on. There are other trades.
But, I have missed them and then had a second chance to get in and didn't.
Psycho thing.
If PA presents itself again then I would take it.
Sometimes it is a blessing that you missed it.
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