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  • #5,941
  • Oct 1, 2009 4:13pm Oct 1, 2009 4:13pm
Quoting strat
If today's BEOB/BEEB has got your attention, don't forget its trapped in a wedge.
LOL...just prepped this chart too! Like I said in the chart, may be better to let the market show it's hand first....but one to watch.
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Trade less and become more profitable!
  • #5,942
  • Oct 1, 2009 4:31pm Oct 1, 2009 4:31pm
Will the yellow hold it up?
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15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #5,943
  • Oct 1, 2009 4:45pm Oct 1, 2009 4:45pm
EurUsd thoughts....
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Trade less and become more profitable!
  • #5,944
  • Oct 1, 2009 4:53pm Oct 1, 2009 4:53pm
Quoting Grimweasel
EurUsd thoughts....
A bit of a conflict on mine old chap!

Price is at 50% retrace which EURUSD likes but my DSRI demand line is at 61.8% retrace at 1.4431. Which one will she choose?
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #5,945
  • Oct 1, 2009 5:07pm Oct 1, 2009 5:07pm
Re the CHF intervention, I was thinking on the way home from work today whether it might be worth placing an entry order reasonably safely clear on either side of the range on a daily chart (assuming you're sitting in front of the computer watching it all day) so that entry won't be triggered by normal trading, but when an intervention spike does hit, then since you're setup on either side with a take profit of, say 30 or 50 pips, it would be an easy way to take advantage of the spike in one fell swoop cos you're in and out in a second. Anyone have any thoughts on this?
  • #5,946
  • Oct 1, 2009 5:15pm Oct 1, 2009 5:15pm
Quoting strat
A bit of a conflict on mine old chap!

Price is at 50% retrace which EURUSD likes but my DSRI demand line is at 61.8% retrace at 1.4431. Which one will she choose?
Jacko loves the 50% Fib on eurusd. Looking at the boss it looks bearish to me; I still 'think' (dangerous, I know) that the wedge BO will be a fakey as it's rejected the old middle of the W pattern. Not sure, so I'll wait for post NFP and have a look next week I think.

My fibs are drawn from the Boss chart swing high to low. How did you get 50% Strat, intrigued?
Trade less and become more profitable!
  • #5,947
  • Oct 1, 2009 5:18pm Oct 1, 2009 5:18pm
Hi Strat and Team, with the NFP in mind, should we still enter orders in the market if we see some valid setups? Or we should sit out ?
Discipline is PRIMARY, Method is Secondary.....
  • #5,948
  • Oct 1, 2009 5:23pm Oct 1, 2009 5:23pm
I read that there are options barriers at 1.45 in EURUSD which are often quite well defended and there was talk earlier in the week of big sovereign (central bank) bids at 1.4460
Will be interesting to see anyway ...

Sometimes these rumours work against you. Yesterday the talk was all about EURGBP for end of month fixing, everyone got short and then got slammed.
  • #5,949
  • Oct 1, 2009 5:25pm Oct 1, 2009 5:25pm
Quoting Dabestone
Hi Strat and Team, with the NFP in mind, should we still enter orders in the market if we see some valid setups? Or we should sit out ?
I would never put a market order in for up to 20mins either side of NFP. Most brokers widen the spread massively and you'll get slipped crappy fills. If you must enter the market I would wait for the dust to settle 30mins and see what you have then. The city loves NFP because it sucks in the retail guys; there are always views both side of the market and no one really has the capacity to fully understand the release for a few hours.

If you must enter I would only use a limit order to ensure you get the price that you want.

I recall one dark day in the past when I tried to trade NFP. I traded the Dow Jones with too much risk; got a crap fill some 40 pips past the market price then tried to get out and kept getting re quotes. Suffice to say I was rinsed for Ł800. Never again I said and I haven't done it since! (Think it was about this time last year in fact!)
Trade less and become more profitable!
  • #5,950
  • Oct 1, 2009 5:31pm Oct 1, 2009 5:31pm
Quoting Grimweasel
I would never put a market order in for up to 20mins either side of NFP....
Thanks for the reply Grimweasel I wouldn't enter @ market neither as you said 20 minutes before or after NFP. I'm looking CAD/JPY at the moment. Am liking the BEOB and had set stop sell order to go short 10 pips below it's low.

Sean
Discipline is PRIMARY, Method is Secondary.....
  • #5,951
  • Oct 1, 2009 5:41pm Oct 1, 2009 5:41pm
Quoting Dabestone
Thanks for the reply Grimweasel I wouldn't enter @ market neither as you said 20 minutes before or after NFP. I'm looking CAD/JPY at the moment. Am liking the BEOB and had set stop sell order to go short 10 pips below it's low.

Sean
No worries Sean. I have support at 81.91 just looking at that pair quickly (not one I follow) so the RR Ratio would not be good enough for me to risk on that BEEB. It's right on the second upward DSRI as well, so that could be double support. One could also argue that until that last low at 78.60 ish is taken out then it's still in the major uptrend? This could be a deep bull-flag much akin to the one on its left?

Like I said, not one for me but do your own analysis mate. Sometimes forums can be your enemy, as if u listen to all the conflicting views you could end up never trading!!
Trade less and become more profitable!
  • #5,952
  • Oct 1, 2009 6:24pm Oct 1, 2009 6:24pm
Quoting kwcmau
Re the CHF intervention, I was thinking on the way home from work today whether it might be worth placing an entry order reasonably safely clear on either side of the range on a daily chart (assuming you're sitting in front of the computer watching it all day) so that entry won't be triggered by normal trading, but when an intervention spike does hit, then since you're setup on either side with a take profit of, say 30 or 50 pips, it would be an easy way to take advantage of the spike in one fell swoop cos you're in and out in a second. Anyone have...

Suicide
  • #5,953
  • Oct 1, 2009 7:38pm Oct 1, 2009 7:38pm
First of all, I'll state for the record that I don't know very much and my trading skills are marginal at best.

I traded stocks for about 10 years. I was spectacularly unsuccessful...and I do mean spectacularly.

October of last year I discovered Forex and in short time I had a chart that rivaled anything Picasso churned out with all the indicators. Typical of most new Forex traders I proceeded to blow several accounts over the next several months.

Fortunately, however, I only allowed myself $200 per account per month and traded micro lots (I can't learn if there isn't something on the line).

I read threads, I studied charts and consumed everything Forex I could get my hands on. I have been DRAWN to this beast like nothing I've ever encountered. I put in about 7 hours a day studying, watching live charts or trying to play from a naked MT4 strategy tester chart.

Sometime around March or April of this year, things finally started to make sense. I had also been following James16 and joined their group. I began making my account last longer than a month.

I can say with unequivocal certainty that learning price action from those guys was solid freakin gold. I felt like I had been given a secret pass to the inner circle to finally learn what those damn bars meant.

I almost needed therapy when I finally realized I couldn't trade $50 mini-lots with my $200 account and get to $10,000 in a month...seriously. Well, hell...I guess it's really just hype like the experienced guys are saying and that only money management with properly sized lots and defined risk is going to work. What a pisser...seriously.

When I finally realized 'there is no santa clause' I took a deep breath and on June 1st I deposited my monthly $200 into the latest almost zeroed account and vowed to play by the rules. Today, thanks to price action, money management and risk definition I have a few multiples of that original amount. It still isn't much but at least I'm not going backwards any more!

Then 2 weeks ago I find this thread and I'm thinking...this stuff makes sense to me.

I'm to page 68 and am trying to keep current on the new posts. This thread too, is solid freakin gold. It's brought a whole new level to S/R for me.

Bear in mind I haven't see what's past page 68 but I'm a little past the part where Strat showed the 2 lines on the chart and I'm thinking...holy crap! THAT is where you can literally see the damn train before it gets on the turn table.

Strat, thanks for putting together an awesome thread. I'll promise not to lurk while I play catch up.

-m
  • #5,954
  • Oct 1, 2009 7:40pm Oct 1, 2009 7:40pm
Hi All,

This pair has been one way ticket, can today price action exchange for a new ticket.
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  • #5,955
  • Oct 1, 2009 7:51pm Oct 1, 2009 7:51pm
Quoting patrick25
Hi All,

This pair has been one way ticket, can today price action exchange for a new ticket.
Not until it stops making LLs and LHs and then starts making HLs and HHs
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #5,956
  • Oct 1, 2009 8:17pm Oct 1, 2009 8:17pm
Quoting strat
Not until it stops making LLs and LHs and then starts making HLs and HHs
Hi Strat,

Understood, today price action is a very good start. This is a very good case to study strat because this pair has been down to the point that make you say how low can she positively goes. I will watch and study the price action as she turns around and post.
  • #5,957
  • Oct 1, 2009 8:22pm Oct 1, 2009 8:22pm
Maybe today?? Never got triggered last night.
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  • #5,958
  • Oct 1, 2009 8:27pm Oct 1, 2009 8:27pm
Quoting Grimweasel
I would never put a market order in for up to 20mins either side of NFP. Most brokers widen the spread massively and you'll get slipped crappy fills. If you must enter the market I would wait for the dust to settle 30mins and see what you have then. The city loves NFP because it sucks in the retail guys; there are always views both side of the market and no one really has the capacity to fully understand the release for a few hours.

If you must enter I would only use a limit order to ensure you get the price that you want.

I recall one dark...

If you must enter I would only use a limit order to ensure you get the price that you want.


The fills won't be guaranteed during fast market conditions even with a limit order. No matter what kind of order you place you get screwed coming and going.
  • #5,959
  • Oct 1, 2009 8:38pm Oct 1, 2009 8:38pm
Quoting patrick25
Hi Strat,

Understood, today price action is a very good start. This is a very good case to study strat because this pair has been down to the point that make you say how low can she positively goes. I will watch and study the price action as she turns around and post.
“”this pair has been down to the point that make you say how low can she positively goes””

The price now is 1.6721. What is to stop price going to 1.2? or 1.0? or 0.75? or 0.5? or 0.2 ? or ?

We don’t know, only the market knows and we just follow the market whichever way she goes – we don’t care.

“”This is a very good case to study. I will watch and study the price action as she turns around and post.””

This is a very good idea, Patrick. Study it and post each night what you think it is doing and why it is doing it etc. This way, if you follow it until it turns into a LONG trend, we can all witness and observe the journey.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #5,960
  • Oct 1, 2009 10:05pm Oct 1, 2009 10:05pm
Quoting PistolDave
On Sep 27, post 5793 CrudeCraig said:

[font=Calibri][size=3][color=blue]"... I am watching 20 or so pairs right now ( all fairly majors) we want to stay away from the exotics IE: less liquid pairs. With this many charts to trade I only have to make one or two good trend trades a year on each pair and I can make 10,000+ pips a year!! If this is not enough to compound your trading account to the MOON! I don’t know what is. Now I think I am being a little conservative here too on the possibilities of what Strat...
The quote option was not letting me edit my writings into it so i hope you can see where i meant them to be lol...

I agree but i am getting a feeling that you are trying to see the exact tops and bottoms of each big move, we don't need to be this exact all of the time(sometimes we will get lucky and nail a top or a bottom but it should not be our main priority) we just want a good sized chunk of that move, so getting in on the retraces and adding on our way up or down is what we are looking for IMO.

Very worthwhile Dave, I think you are definitely on the right track! You were very picky while going over this pair and thats great, The only stress free trade i see on this chart is that second hammer that formed at Major S/R level 1.0600. Even though it does not close within the prior bar i still see this as a great trade. It really shows the support @ 1.0600 of the big move down. This trade here could be that "ONE" trade for this pair all year as it seems to have been acting quite choppy this year.

I am still very much learning right now myself and trying to fight off the temptation to over trade from my M15 M30 days! So i know how you feel. The more i look at the charts i am starting to see that the more picky we are the better chance we have at making it in the long run in this business.
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