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Trade what you see NOT what you expect

  • #26,361
  • Sep 30, 2009 4:01am Sep 30, 2009 4:01am
Quoting KENNETH lEE
here is a chart of some trade entries of today, Hope you got some of it .. Ken
Hello Ken,

I marked the trade I took yesterday and which went immediately against me and ended in a loss. At the low of the hanging man was a support area with good ppa and it closed above the 5 ema.

Reasons why it failed: I make a guess why it doesnt' worked out. The high of the candle was lower than the previous highs and it closed below the open of the previous red candle. At the open of the hanging man there were news. It looked more like a chance to take 5 o'clock bounce trades.

I made a break after the failed trade and missed the next set up.

Today can find many good 1-o'clock bounce set ups.
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  • #26,362
  • Sep 30, 2009 4:17am Sep 30, 2009 4:17am
Only some thoughts.

This is the 4h GBP/USd chart. You can see, that the PA bounced twice from the 50 ema. Now there is another attempt but with the 50 ema and the 50% fibos there is resistance. Maybe we see a trend continuation downwards.

On the daily we had a hammer/hanging man two days ago. Yesterday and today (till now) we had the expected PA movement. Maybe there is a chance that the 50 will not hold.
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  • #26,363
  • Sep 30, 2009 4:27am Sep 30, 2009 4:27am
Quote
Hello Ken,

I marked the trade I took yesterday and which went immediately against me and ended in a loss. At the low of the hanging man was a support area with good ppa and it closed above the 5 ema.

Reasons why it failed: I make a guess why it doesnt' worked out. The high of the candle was lower than the previous highs and it closed below the open of the previous red candle. At the open of the hanging man there were news. It looked more like a chance to take 5 o'clock bounce trades.

Hello McFly,

I'll try and clarify things for you. The trade you took you call a hangman. A hangman is found at a swing high, and then you should short on the open of the next candle. In fact that would have worked for a few pips!

I think what you were trying to play was a bullish pinbar. The problem with this "pinbar" is that it is not at a swing low- look at all the traffic to the left. The wick of the pinbar should extend out into space (basically it signifies a forceful rejection of sellers from that area).

In fact the best play came from the pinbar two candles later, at a proper swing low with previous support although this is not ideal either (the pinbar did not close above the close of the previous candle) but the fact that there was previous support made up for it.

Hope this helps, one of the most important things to learn is to wait for the right PA, and that means patience and being selective. I know I've been there and got the t-shirt!

Carl
There is no top. There are always further heights to reach. Jascha Heifetz
  • #26,364
  • Sep 30, 2009 4:50am Sep 30, 2009 4:50am
Quoting Trader131
Hello McFly,

I'll try and clarify things for you. The trade you took you call a hangman. A hangman is found at a swing high, and then you should short on the open of the next candle....
Hi Carl,

this helped a lot. It seems I still miss some of the important things. Hope you have a good trading day.
  • #26,365
  • Sep 30, 2009 5:11am Sep 30, 2009 5:11am
Glad to help. You're doing the right thing though- I mean by analysing losing trades. If we don't learn from our losing trades, we will never gain an edge in the market.

You're right about cable being around heavy resistance now. I'm just watching for now. Have a look at the daily chart. Previous lows of 1st and 2nd October around here.
There is no top. There are always further heights to reach. Jascha Heifetz
  • #26,366
  • Sep 30, 2009 6:55am Sep 30, 2009 6:55am
neckline approaching on cable,

got 16130 area as resistance then 16180...

4 hour trendline also comes in at 1.6240 area

http://www.moneyweek.com/investments...ing-94008.aspx

interesting piece on sterling
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Trading is 80% Emotional, 20% Technical
  • #26,367
  • Sep 30, 2009 7:45am Sep 30, 2009 7:45am
Quoting 4fun
Its a tough uphill road if she wants to continue the hike I see the big resistance pockets @ 1.5969, 1.6037, 1.6124 and then at 1.6217 and a tl touch.

Looks like it hit
  • #26,368
  • Sep 30, 2009 8:25am Sep 30, 2009 8:25am
See if the 62 1hr ma and the 1.5976 area can provide a bounce atm the 4hr 10ma and the big round number 1.6000 supporting price
  • #26,369
  • Sep 30, 2009 8:40am Sep 30, 2009 8:40am
Will definitly be checking the day and month candle after today should really show the way
  • #26,370
  • Sep 30, 2009 1:40pm Sep 30, 2009 1:40pm
This time before going straightinto the entries trigger I want to explain some of the general ideas we might like to know to help us understand why we take trades or don't that may look alike.
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Good Trading To All ; Ken Lee
  • #26,371
  • Oct 1, 2009 1:57am Oct 1, 2009 1:57am
here is a chart showing how the 50 EMA is the main line on the 15 min chart
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Good Trading To All ; Ken Lee
  • #26,372
  • Oct 1, 2009 3:53am Oct 1, 2009 3:53am
Great job Ken.
  • #26,373
  • Oct 1, 2009 5:17am Oct 1, 2009 5:17am
Good morning,

yesterday I took a trade which ended in a loss. Maybe you can tell me what I made wrong.

I went short after the cycled pin candle. It moved 10 pips (6 without spread) in my direction turned and stopped me out.
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  • #26,374
  • Oct 1, 2009 5:47am Oct 1, 2009 5:47am
Morning all and to you MCFly

Don't assume automatically you did wrong. The market wasn't quite ready to continue down, that was all

It is quite coincidental that Ken has just posted the importance of the 50 ema on the 15 min especially after it has recently broken.
I just checked my charts for your question and see the 15 min 50 ema had been broken from above and then acted like a magnet on this occasion before dropping as you anticipated.

Some other factors that might have been relevant:
1) After the drop from 1.16125 the retrace at your trigger candle had not quite reached a 38.2 fib... We assume this is a factor used by many traders before adding new sell orders
2) The retrace also reached the daily R1 where again one assumes sellers would load up
3) Th retrace also found the 10 ema on the H1 where again ...... blah blah
We get the point.

I know it seems easy after the event but remember under different circumstances your short might have been a winner. EO has stated before that he has been stopped out only to take the same position a little later. this looks like one of those occasions.

I hope this is useful

Rob

Quoting MCFly
Good morning,

yesterday I took a trade which ended in a loss. Maybe you can tell me what I made wrong.

I went short after the cycled pin candle. It moved 10 pips (6 without spread) in my direction turned and stopped me out.
  • #26,375
  • Oct 1, 2009 5:49am Oct 1, 2009 5:49am
Great job as always Ken

Quoting KENNETH lEE
here is a chart showing how the 50 EMA is the main line on the 15 min chart
  • #26,376
  • Edited 8:55am Oct 1, 2009 7:50am | Edited 8:55am
Quoting robgsxr
Morning all and to you MCFly

Don't assume automatically you did wrong. The market wasn't quite ready to continue down, that was all

It is quite coincidental that Ken has just posted the importance of the 50 ema on the 15 min especially after it has recently broken.
I just checked my charts for your question and see the 15 min 50 ema had been broken from above and then acted like a magnet on this occasion before dropping as you anticipated.

Some other factors that might have been relevant:
1) After the drop from 1.16125 the retrace at your trigger...
Thx for the explanation. It's really tricky ;-)

Where are Eo, Infinity...?
  • #26,377
  • Oct 1, 2009 8:10am Oct 1, 2009 8:10am
Yes it is tricky but I feel the experience of time makes it more understandable.

Try to digest all that Ken is explaining.

I do not know where the guys are, I just hope all is well with them



Quoting MCFly
Thx for the explanation. It's really tricky ;-)

Where is Eo, Infinity...?
  • #26,378
  • Edited 8:32am Oct 1, 2009 8:21am | Edited 8:32am
Quoting MCFly
Good morning,

yesterday I took a trade which ended in a loss. Maybe you can tell me what I made wrong.

I went short after the cycled pin candle. It moved 10 pips (6 without spread) in my direction turned and stopped me out.

What if I told you that traigger didn't fail.. You would probabbly say I was crazy , But from your entry price went down 10 pips. Not enough to cover but it did go down. You will find this alot when you take midor minor leel signals . Price will go the right way for a bit but not enough to do any god. The hard part is learning ot look at everything in a glance and reading it right . This can only come from trial and error..

if you were a scalper good have been a good trade. Took 10 pips.

let us look at it using just out threads stuff..

1 I look for triggers with the same color body as the trade i want to take should be RED , Tat is just me.

2 The small MA's are turning up and have been for a couple of candles.

3 I can't real tell from your chart but this looks like a hammer (no lower wick) This not the most reliable turning signal as it shows that price only tried to go up and was held back but not that sellers made in head way lower at all. Same reeason I look for a red body for a short.

You did see the entry jsut keep trying and you will get it. The details take time to learn....Ken

ps.. The small ma's pointing up may not seem right as they are doing that at turning areas. But say you kept a pro con list of your trades. that would be a con. but if you were at s/r or a major MA that would cancle that con out as a pro.

green body for short CON
Trigger pin PRO
MA's pointing down CON


Like that.. You did a some PA butyou were also in a middle ground as far as price goes. which is always tricky to trade . The price is between a turning point the low and the 35/50 MA's
This is why we use the MA's a s S/R lines if we don't have any line near there we use them as our next level to look at. Until it is broken.
Good Trading To All ; Ken Lee
  • #26,379
  • Oct 1, 2009 8:45am Oct 1, 2009 8:45am
Trying a long at 1.5967 sl 1.5945
  • #26,380
  • Oct 1, 2009 8:54am Oct 1, 2009 8:54am
Quoting MCFly
Good morning,

yesterday I took a trade which ended in a loss. Maybe you can tell me what I made wrong.

I went short after the cycled pin candle. It moved 10 pips (6 without spread) in my direction turned and stopped me out.
Another thing you can try is wait for price to go up the wick then sell gives ya a smaller sl. Sometimes it will take off and you get left behind nothings bullet proof but try it on a demo
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