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  • #146,821
  • Sep 26, 2009 5:37am Sep 26, 2009 5:37am
hi all, i posted new views at my blog.. do take a look if interested.. thanks!

http://www.thegeekknows.com/2009/09/...lows-down.html
  • #146,822
  • Edited 7:05am Sep 26, 2009 6:41am | Edited 7:05am
Quoting X.Oden
I can tell you that on the monthly however, the trend change for the EUR has already begun its Journey south...as of August 08...we are merely in a retracement at this point for another dip...
A couple of down days and you are calling a trend change on the monthly? That's a big call.

I'm not opposed to some more down action but as for a trend change ... well only time will tell ....

Funny how all the US$ bulls come out of the closet when we didn't even end the week 200 pips down from the yearly high.

My line in the sand at the moment is around high 77.00's/78.00 on the USDX. Give me a weekly close above that first (and I still wouldn't be a US$ bull) but it might change the way I'm looking at my charts.

[EDIT] When the EUR breaks the 1.16 area, then I'll consider it a true trend change.
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #146,823
  • Sep 26, 2009 7:09am Sep 26, 2009 7:09am
@patience

i agree with you we are still in a very strong E/U uptrend and bulls can come back unexpected quick to grill shortpositions!

pipsalot
  • #146,824
  • Sep 26, 2009 7:22am Sep 26, 2009 7:22am
What was the closing price g/u?
There is 20 pip diffrence between 2 broker, but i guess the last one closing mostly right, so can be easy 20 pip!?
  • #146,825
  • Edited 8:37am Sep 26, 2009 7:55am | Edited 8:37am
I obviously do not know how to quote very well hehe...

What I wanted to say in the last email to Jay Walker got cut off, so, the point I'm wanting to make is..

The bulls are right and the bears are right, depending on what time frames you are trading. Its the same concept as fractalization or dow theory...

If you picture a Sine Wave with the Midpoint, Trader A can buy and Trader B can sell and both will win in time....the trick is to be able to hang on to the price swings....that's the real key.....thus position sizing is extremely important..

Anyway, I challenge a lot of calls here, but I do know that long term its anyone's ball game, depends on which side of the fence the Sine Wave is swinging......

Otherwise, I enjoy calling out the short term obvious because I know most traders in this group are short term holdings....

As to my own range, I can typically hold on to a 2000 pip swing PER position I hold, this gives me an infinite possibility of range to ride......however at anytime, if I close all my trades, my positions are positive.....

In all honesty, I don't focus on the profits, but I focus on growing my margin.....





That's fine...you have a right to be, maybe you'll get lucky and it goes to 1.52xx


Quoting Jay Walker
Well, I'm still in a long so I obviously don't worry about the current drop. But I won't follow someone else's signs. Only my own...even if I'm wrong.

Sure, there are ranges within larger trends within larger ranges....fractals...

I'll long be in a short on a train to 1.0252. And I can survive a drop to 1.4298 and still profit.



On that mate, I couldn't agree with you more.



I expect it to go higher. Only time will tell I suppose. Meanwhile, we'll just have to agree to disagree.

No one's disagreeing....it depends on what you're...
In Charts We Trust!
  • #146,826
  • Sep 26, 2009 7:56am Sep 26, 2009 7:56am
What do you consider an easier pair than EU?


Quoting pkimnyc
most times, eu is in complex or in advance wave patterns. if you want to apply simple method of ew then you may want to think about choosing other pair.
just my 2 cents.
In Charts We Trust!
  • #146,827
  • Sep 26, 2009 8:00am Sep 26, 2009 8:00am
Its all a matter of perspective I guess. In the meantime, I'll enjoy the short term profits as this trend change / retrace (depending on which half of the glass you're looking at) happens..



Quoting Patience
A couple of down days and you are calling a trend change on the monthly? That's a big call.

I'm not opposed to some more down action but as for a trend change ... well only time will tell ....

Funny how all the US$ bulls come out of the closet when we didn't even end the week 200 pips down from the yearly high.

My line in the sand at the moment is around high 77.00's/78.00 on the USDX. Give me a weekly close above that first (and I still wouldn't be a US$ bull) but it might change the way I'm looking at my charts.

[EDIT] When the EUR breaks...
In Charts We Trust!
  • #146,828
  • Sep 26, 2009 9:52am Sep 26, 2009 9:52am
Hassna said 1.4920

Short on Rally

Still keep my short
  • #146,829
  • Sep 26, 2009 10:26am Sep 26, 2009 10:26am
Quoting learntowin
Hassna said 1.4920

Short on Rally

Still keep my short
1.4920 is conservative, may go higher. But shorting this thing may damage longer-term long positions. I would look for low risk buying opportunity around 1.4500.

Don't want to sign my own Black Warrant.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #146,830
  • Edited 11:24am Sep 26, 2009 11:16am | Edited 11:24am
Quoting Chicky
1.4920 is conservative, may go higher. But shorting this thing may damage longer-term long positions. I would look for low risk buying opportunity around 1.4500.
I'm not sure if it was the Deutshe Bank who made the prediction but I read a report by one of the big players that the E/U is expected to reach the 1.53 mark by year's end.

As for the pair hitting 1.2 and lower as some people on here have been suggesting, IMHO is a very remote possibility. The euro has been above 1.2 since March 06 and not even the recession pushed it lower both at the end of last year as well as this year in March. And we all know what the fundamentals tell us about the state of the US economy... Add to that the fact that more and more central banks are diversifying their FX reserves away from the dollar and some are even shifting to the euro -- these are long-term decisions, not taken light-heartedly --, and the future doesn't look good for the dollar.

I'm not an expert on FX or market analysis but it is my humble opinion that the euro will continue to be stronger than the dollar for awhile, despite any retracements/price corrections the pair may suffer in the future.
  • #146,831
  • Edited 12:22pm Sep 26, 2009 11:53am | Edited 12:22pm
Quoting M1g
I'm not sure if it was the Deutshe Bank who made the prediction but I read a report by one of the big players that the E/U is expected to reach the 1.53 mark by year's end.

As for the pair hitting 1.2 and lower as some people on here have been suggesting, IMHO is a very remote possibility. The euro has been above 1.2 since March 06 and not even the recession pushed it lower both at the end of last year as well as this year in March. And we all know what the fundamentals tell us about the state of the US economy... Add to that the fact that more...
I remember reading that analysis a couple of days ago but cannot recall where.

Market movements are never certain. Even if one has general idea about the direction, still cannot precisely predict length, timing and pattern of pa movement.

As far as I am concerned more than one factors including chart reading clearly indicate longer term north direction.

Since we don't know how and when it will move in this direction (if it does), the best approach would be to plan a safer play.

Me too not an expert in forex, learning and trying to apply some strange concepts and tactics.

Since I am a professional thief, under oath to follow some rules and ethics unlike most civilized thugs out on the streets. First and foremost rule of Theftology requires a thief to find escape before exploring the entry. "No emergency exit, no breaking in. Period". Buying at 1.4500 (or whatever next support it finds below 1.4500) will be a vault worth breaking into and still most likely to remain at large (in front, not behind the bars) if guards wake up before dawn.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #146,832
  • Sep 26, 2009 12:54pm Sep 26, 2009 12:54pm
Quoting trading801
hi all, i posted new views at my blog.. do take a look if interested.. thanks!

http://www.thegeekknows.com/2009/09/...lows-down.html
anyway , anyone feels this pair will range a while?
  • #146,833
  • Sep 26, 2009 1:55pm Sep 26, 2009 1:55pm
Quoting trading801
anyway , anyone feels this pair will range a while?
You're been on about ranging for a couple days now. What makes you say it will?
Not all sins are created equal
  • #146,834
  • Sep 26, 2009 2:30pm Sep 26, 2009 2:30pm
Hey guys hope everyone is having a great weekend. Here are two charts that I am basing my trades off of. The first is an h1 with an ascending channel and descending channel. I went long on the bounce friday off the lower channel line and I'm looking for 1.4737 1st target, 1.4750 T2, and 1.4765 T3. I'll look to short for a bigger reversion around 1.4765 to sub 1.45 levels. We are undoubtedly still in a strong uptrend.

The second chart daily. It appears that we are in the 5th wave of the uptrend from 1.25. I think that 1.4455 and 1.4338 will be excellent areas to go long for the final wave up to 1.50 major resistance.
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  • #146,835
  • Sep 26, 2009 3:21pm Sep 26, 2009 3:21pm
Quoting learntowin
Hassna said...
Attached Image


Oooops... hope you have a backup plan.
FUBAR...
  • #146,836
  • Sep 26, 2009 3:42pm Sep 26, 2009 3:42pm
Quoting ak4x
Attachment

Oooops... hope you have a backup plan.

Multiple personalities eh!
Not all sins are created equal
  • #146,837
  • Sep 26, 2009 4:05pm Sep 26, 2009 4:05pm
Quoting pkimnyc
most times, eu is in complex or in advance wave patterns. if you want to apply simple method of ew then you may want to think about choosing other pair.
just my 2 cents.
i'm a big fan of occum and he would say ew is too complex to be highly effective.

personally... i think it's shit.

m
  • #146,838
  • Sep 26, 2009 4:26pm Sep 26, 2009 4:26pm
Quoting X.Oden
What do you consider an easier pair than EU?
cable first, then geppy. if i had to choose.
  • #146,839
  • Sep 26, 2009 4:27pm Sep 26, 2009 4:27pm
Quoting acumen
i'm a big fan of occum and he would say ew is too complex to be highly effective.

personally... i think it's shit.

m
lol. if that is what you think..
  • #146,840
  • Sep 26, 2009 4:46pm Sep 26, 2009 4:46pm
Quoting acumen
i'm a big fan of occum and he would say ew is too complex to be highly effective.

personally... i think it's shit.

m
Shoveling shit is something I can relate to. Let's keep going, plenty room on the pile....

Andrews Pitchfork? shovel it....

Gartley Butterflies & Crabs & whatnot? shovel it...

Gann Analysis? shovel it....

Fibonaccii Extensions? shovel it...

Ichimoku Cloud? shovel it...

...let me know if I'm leaving anything out, I'm sure I am, I need a Red Bull though...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
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