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Sonic R. System

  • #6,441
  • Sep 24, 2009 1:39am Sep 24, 2009 1:39am
Quoting ag_fx
Nice insight. Thanks TAH
I watch volume, too....... And this looked like a pump 'n dump.
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  • #6,442
  • Sep 24, 2009 1:46am Sep 24, 2009 1:46am
Quoting traderathome
I watch volume, too....... And this looked like a pump 'n dump.
I dont know whether the volume was realistic or something to be taken into consideration. That was the data time last night(GMT+530) and usually at such times the volumes are high. Like today we have unemployment claims and I am sure we'll see huge volumes around that time. many a times at the data time, price move in one direction and within 15-45 mins it reverses and goes back into original direction or opposite direction. I mean to say the volumes at news and data will always be high.
I really dont know VSA so cant comment skillfully. Just speaking my mind out loud.
  • #6,443
  • Sep 24, 2009 1:47am Sep 24, 2009 1:47am
Quoting snusnufreak
Furburr, I think Sonic moved SL to the place he showed on the pic around 1.4756 area, so instead of making 60 pips the trade closed with about 30 when the price started to go up.

Regards,
snu.
Furburr, I think Snu answer on my behalf already...

Sonic
  • #6,444
  • Edited 2:04am Sep 24, 2009 1:52am | Edited 2:04am
Quoting ag_fx
I dont know whether the volume was realistic or something to be taken into consideration. That was the data time last night(GMT+530) and usually at such times the volumes are high. Like today we have unemployment claims and I am sure we'll see huge volumes around that time. many a times at the data time, price move in one direction and within 15-45 mins it reverses and goes back into original direction or opposite direction. I mean to say the volumes at news and data will always be high.
I really dont know VSA so cant comment skillfully. Just speaking...
One, we don't get actual volume. We get tic/trade counts. Trade sizes are secret. Nevertheless, the relative change in tic or trade counts, points to increasing/decreasing interest.

I don't know much about PVSA (Price Volume Size Analysis), but I can see when there is less interest in going higher than in coming down!
  • #6,445
  • Edited 2:26am Sep 24, 2009 2:10am | Edited 2:26am
EU M15: What looked like it could become a "text book" setup, is becoming less so as time progresses. That is not to say it cannot come back into better shape. But unless LO does something nice, I'll be sitting back, waiting for USO traders.......

Edit: Updated chart. High relative volume at recent PA high. Confirmation that it was a pump 'n dump, or "Launch & liquidate!", will be if PA ceases to demonstrate upside strength....
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  • #6,446
  • Sep 24, 2009 2:50am Sep 24, 2009 2:50am
Quoting Pucter
Hi all!
What should you do in this case, sell (red line), or buy (green)?
Attachment

Pucter
I Don't Like The Long Setup Because Of Two Reasons :
1) CCI Didn't Break The Zero Line And Didn't Go Above It. (Pic One)
2) Most Importantly, On Daily TF We See a PB That Makes Me To Seek Out For Short Entries.

I Believe That The Short Setup Was Valid, But If I Myself Had Took It, My SL Would Be Hit Because Of That Bullish Move. Too Good That I Was Sleep
There Is a Way To Filter These Kind Of Losses. See TAH Posts, He Waits For Break Of The Low For Two Entries, And That Will Save Him In This Trade, But Because Of The R:R Ratio And My Personallity, If I Saw a Good Setup That Is Supported With Higher TFs, I Don't Wait For Break Of The Previous High/Low. See What Fits You

Regards,
Basber
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Trading methods are designed to put the odds in our favor, not predicting.
  • #6,447
  • Sep 24, 2009 2:53am Sep 24, 2009 2:53am
Let's See What Will Happen ...

Regards,
Basber
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Trading methods are designed to put the odds in our favor, not predicting.
  • #6,448
  • Sep 24, 2009 3:11am Sep 24, 2009 3:11am
Thanks, Basber,

got it.

Pucter
  • #6,449
  • Sep 24, 2009 3:42am Sep 24, 2009 3:42am
Guys, please look at the picture. This is a current GU chart.

Please explain me if this was a Sonic set-up. I'm confused once again as to what extent one should identify the waves. I was looking at the "smaller waves" (see the picture) and was anticipating GU to go up which made me miss the big move down.

My guess is that I was not paying attention to following things:

1. the overall major trend is down.
2. Yesterdays session formed nice pinn bar on a daily chart.
3. The signs TAH was showing us - that the channel was below the 89 EMA, EMA itself was sloping down.

Any comments?

Thank you,
snu.
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  • #6,450
  • Edited 9:43am Sep 24, 2009 5:21am | Edited 9:43am
Quoting Basber
Let's See What Will Happen ...

Regards,
Basber
SL @ BE. Risk Free Now. It Crossed My TP Just Few Pips. Let's See What Will Happen Next ...

Upgrade : BE Hit.

Regards,
Basber
Trading methods are designed to put the odds in our favor, not predicting.
  • #6,451
  • Sep 24, 2009 5:38am Sep 24, 2009 5:38am
Quoting snusnufreak
Guys, please look at the picture. This is a current GU chart.

Please explain me if this was a Sonic set-up. I'm confused once again as to what extent one should identify the waves. I was looking at the "smaller waves" (see the picture) and was anticipating GU to go up which made me miss the big move down.

My guess is that I was not paying attention to following things:

1. the overall major trend is down.
2. Yesterdays session formed nice pinn bar on a daily chart.
3. The signs TAH was showing us - that the channel was below the 89 EMA,...
Your Question Is Like Pucter's. I Wrote My Opinion About Why Not Seeking For a Long Setup. But About Your Wave For Short Setup. Like I Said To Pucter If I Wanted To Short This Trade (I Would If I Was Awake) My SL Would've Been Hit. But The Wave That You Drew, I'm Not Comfortable With. See The Pic. Hope It Helps. For Me It Was a Perfect Setup That Failed (Yeah !! Even Perfect Ones Are Not 100%)

Regards,
Basber
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Trading methods are designed to put the odds in our favor, not predicting.
  • #6,452
  • Sep 24, 2009 5:45am Sep 24, 2009 5:45am
Hmm ... Interesting Area ...

Regards,
Basber
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Trading methods are designed to put the odds in our favor, not predicting.
  • #6,453
  • Sep 24, 2009 8:06am Sep 24, 2009 8:06am
Quoting ag_fx
How does this set up on AU M15 looks?

My concern is placing of SL. It skews up the R:R. Any thoughts on this please?

AG

http://img21.imageshack.us/img21/8675/aum1524sept.png

PS: Demo trading
Tgt Met. I was almost tempted to book profits at xx43 levels where it was stalling a lot. But somehow stayed away from booking and met the tgt.
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  • #6,454
  • Sep 24, 2009 10:17am Sep 24, 2009 10:17am
Quoting sonicdeejay
Furburr, I think Snu answer on my behalf already...

Sonic
Thanks guys. I initially thought the red line was the stop. I missed all of todays move cos I was on a plane. Well gotta look for the next re-entry level to rejoin this new trend!!!
  • #6,455
  • Edited 12:02pm Sep 24, 2009 11:18am | Edited 12:02pm
EU: So, this is how it is working out. Notice that consistently there is the most volume on the "over the top and down" moves, "Launch & liquidate!"...pump 'n dump moves.

Edit: Please note that the first Ep was in an environment where there was a H-L-LH-LL, but it did not work out. Subsequently that environment changed into L-H-HL-HHs, so nothing after the first Ep would have been SonicR. I see this pair as being in a pump 'n dump cycle that has been going on for weeks. There have been some good setups long, but pumping seems to be weakening, as though the pumpers are reluctant to push up too far and incite some major competition to sell off, while they are trying to do the same. And short trades have been slim, as so many times a setup appears, it does not work out because another Launch & Liqudate move happens.
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  • #6,456
  • Sep 24, 2009 11:30am Sep 24, 2009 11:30am
Quoting ag_fx
Tgt Met. I was almost tempted to book profits at xx43 levels where it was stalling a lot. But somehow stayed away from booking and met the tgt.
AU: As it turned out here, yes a long trade was good for some pips. Note, however, lower highs (top of yellow rectangles) and the "slam dunk" volume on the "Launch & liquidate" runs. This is happening on pairs against the dollar. It looks like the major syndicates are working to change from long to short, which they have probably been doing for weeks now as they kept pumping against the dollar and then dumping at the tops. Just speculation. But the volume here is saying there is more interest at the highs in selling, than in buying to go higher.
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  • #6,457
  • Sep 24, 2009 11:34am Sep 24, 2009 11:34am
Quoting traderathome
AU:...
Thanks TAH. Would you please explain your EP in the above diagram?you chose a pullback to dragon to enter?(I mean you would have). Do you do that with all of your trades or some specific ones? If they are specific ones, what is the reason to distinguish one from another?
  • #6,458
  • Sep 24, 2009 11:51am Sep 24, 2009 11:51am
Quoting ag_fx
Thanks TAH. Would you please explain your EP in the above diagram?you chose a pullback to dragon to enter?(I mean you would have). Do you do that with all of your trades or some specific ones? If they are specific ones, what is the reason to distinguish one from another?
Note that the Ep is in the area where the initial Ep would have been, maybe just a bit higher. Anyway, after first Ep the PA rise was countered with a drive back down to the same area as would have been for initial Ep. And this is where traders piled on again. It consistuted a "bounce" back out from inside the Dragon, and a "bounce" back up from the 89 ema, both of which were sloped up by the time of the marked Ep. I would not have taken the trade. I was skeptical, as I said in earlier post. I acknowledged that a long trade could be good for some pips, but it is in an environment where upside moves are dominated with selloffs at the tops that are notably larger than the buyins at the bottoms. Anyway, that is how I saw it.
  • #6,459
  • Sep 24, 2009 12:23pm Sep 24, 2009 12:23pm
Quoting ddaytrader
Pin bar or no pin bar, it does not matter as long you are paying attention to price action and S/R. Here is the weekly GU. I cannot take credit for having come up with this, as a friend of mine brought this to my attention. He is awaiting for break down from levels just below current price to go short the GU.

Hi folks,

Remember this chart? Big Picture Short on the GU triggered. My buddy tipped me off on this one, so I can't take the credit. I asked him for a target but just says he'll take whatever the market will give.

Me? My target is Par!

Good Luck!

-DD
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  • #6,460
  • Sep 24, 2009 12:35pm Sep 24, 2009 12:35pm
EU: On a larger scale, this may have finally turned the corner. There are several different support lines in the area of the lower whole number, 1.4600, whiich makes a likely Tp1.
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