The DIBS Method... No Free Lunch continues

Took the Break of this DIBS based on my analysis. Should have held first lot for much longer....we're always learning.

Z

Well put. The answer lies within the person who is trading. Humans can be very skeptical, especially when they have not met someone who is claiming to be quite good at what they do. The posts of charts and data may appease the eye but for what it is worth we really dont know the truth behind it. If I have learnt anything over the past year it is to take everything with an open mind and find out what fits you personally.

I have taken most of the core insights of IBs (and some other strats), tested them in my sleep and made the relevant changes to suit my lifestyle. It has taken my close to 5 years to reach this point. It may take me another 5 years before I fully understand myself and why I have this lingering urge to do this (trade). Along the way, I have met some great people, people who I have the pleasure of talking to daily through live streams and bouncing info back and forth.

We are all different and the models that we trade, while they may have come from a source, reflect that difference. Hence why on a thread that has the ideals laid out, from a very successful person in black and white, there are contrasting views (some successful others not so) on how it can be traded. I dont think it is entirely possible to trade a model in exactly the same way as someone else and theres simple reasons. Comfort and Trust.

Peter and Joel have more or less been doing this for decades, so they completely trust the core model. Others should follow it and over time im sure they will iron out the creases, but the element of human nature to twist and warp working things to improve them seems to take over. The other thing is pain avoidance. Taking every IB (in this model case) is one of the stepping stones to learning but people avoid that because there is, as has been documented a number of times, a larger than average chance of loosing. The model is not based on high percentage winners, but the running of winners which to traders is not feasible in there minds. The core element of most traders is to take limited profits. Taking limited profits here will not work if you take every trade because as stated it is not designed to win 51%, although it would be nice if that was the case.

So what happens is that people take 6 or 7 losses straight, no free trades as the market is producing more chop than a busy teppanyaki resturant, then they finally get a good winner that nets them x pips and they cut the rope. Why?

My biggest hurdle has been this point but it is a hurdle I plan to clear. I have in my plan a way to do this that gives me comfort, because I trust the theory. I trust the theory because I can look back on history and see the 100s of times in the past on the 100s of tradable charts that it has worked. But I have done that homework with my mentors and they include everyone that I reply to and who replies to me daily, those who have dropped by and added to the journal, both here and mine. I have filtered out those who I dont feel offer the advice that will best suit my needs and acknowledge those who do. There is more than enough info given by people for you to get a basic feel of there place. Some aggressively back there skills, others go about giving humble opinions. At the end of the day each trader places his or her trades and is responsible for all aspects of there trade, regardless of who or where they got there models and plans.

Take care Joh and best trades with you

Razor

At the time I was going through those periods I still received a salary/draw from the fund I worked for. Later on I diversified into some real estate.

No other systems just basic trend following. I wish I had a grail( something that would make money every day) even every quarter would be nice to have.. I tried to learn how to day trade the sp500 a couple times and got my ass burned...Major losses....Oh then there was a supposedly hedged Yen trade that ended up not so hedge!! Still hurts to think about that one. I blow a whole year of profits on that one. lol- Funny I never met a very wealthy SP500 day trader who worked off the floor.

Something to think about. Take last Friday for instance. For me putting on a new FULL size positions was not a good ideal? Those four days a year don't hold up well to my backtesting and past experiences. How about yours? I will assume everyone knows what was special about Friday, right.. If not do not pass go and collect 200 dollars..lol

Was it the filter that got him the 2-5 times the edge or the time periods he advocated? Could the answer simply be both? Of maybe it's the confidence He has obtained through experience. What's your take on this if you don't mind me asking.


If your bleeding put on a band aid. You don't have to trade in the blind. God gave you common sense for a reason. Don't be afraid to use it once in a while. Zuret In the end all I'm trying to do is give back some of what was given to me, please don't read too much into it. Except for giving some encouragement and suggestions there really isn't anything else about this. One must take the ideals and do the required homework for themselves to prove it to themselves.All I could ever really give of value is try to explain what the realities of this business is from my personal perspective not anyone else's. It all boils down to accepting many, many, small losses in hope of being around for a Tail to pay off. Nothing more nothing less. It's just like any other profession out there one must put in the required effort and stick around long enough for the pay off. I stumbled across this forum awhile back by chance. After spending a few weeks or so reading many posts I came to understand the one common theme here, almost everyone trying to get into this game makes the same mistakes, they search for the Grail in an attempt to avoid the necessary losses.This is the reason why they get taken advantage of by the hustlers out there. It's the same reason why most people will spend a lifetime working for a pay check and not step out on there own. Not easy to give up the security of a weekly pay check for the unknown. Even if the unknown is quantifiable and this really is why these techniques work.The future unknowns are quantifiable because humans are creatures of habit, history does and will repeat itself. All the trader does is try to tstick around long enough to take advantages of these traits.-Sorry for the long Rant been a long boring day.

Hey James,
Thx again for sharing some more nuggets.........so what did I miss about last Friday? There was some GBP news but didn't do much.....the dollar was obviously very strong.........a friend of mine who manages a large fund in Moscow mentioned some stuff around the FED and some other US news that was trying to push up the dollar but in his opinion it wouldn't work!? Any clues? I had 3 losing trades and the whole week wasn't much better so would like to know if it's repeatable so I don't trade it again!?
Best,
J

No problem James
The event happens on the third Friday in March, June, September and December when options, index options, single stock futures and index futures all expire on the same date. Better know as Triple Witching.

It's the four times a year the Major players get to practice their black magic(manipulation) to the limit. Ooops did I just say that word. You think They give a rats ____ about what my or your hourly chart patterns tell us today? Billions and billions of extra dollars circulate through the system so the Books can be re-balanced for the next upcoming quarter.Again a little common sense and a dose of reality of whats really going on here on the Macro level can go a long way. Supply and Demand Balances and Imbalances along with market sentiment need not apply here at these precious moments. I encourage you to back test this out for yourself, it might save you a dime here and there. I had 5 losing trades on Friday the only difference is by knowing what the Animals on the farm were doing what I step into only smelled half as bad than usual. lol.

Thanks James I have highlighted 18th December in my Calendar with the words 'Beware Half Risk or less day!' Can I ask what your thoughts are on using an SMA 10 and 40 crossover to filter trades in terms whether to go long or short ( 10 over 40 long and 10 under 40 short)? Also what do you think about fixed versus variable contract sizing James?
Thanks,
J

james996,

thank you for your reply regarding my questions.

another one now you`re still here.

Peter Crown mentioned that he only buys on a up day and reverse for sells, but he said sometimes he knew beforehand that that day was going to be up or down.

What factors would give him and probably you as well an inkling of what the day is going to be?

Look at the info given on Higher Timeframes. For instance if we are coming upto or have reached weekly S/R and the previous days bar was an indication of reversal then where do you think the bias would be. Would you ignore the information given on a daily bar (pin or another reversal PA bar) or just trade the rules and if the day is up slightly go long/short into S/R?

Think of the impact that big zones of S/R has and you have answered part of the question?

Razor

My opinion is that you in effect want to add a second filter because you seek to avoid LOSSES. Indirectly your also trying to increase your win rate(which is really the same issue). Have you back testing just using the filter Peter gave and if you did what would YOU compare it to. Maybe a back test using no filter at all, to give you a base line to measure off of. Do that exercise and you just might be in for a surprise..

Your find out in your testing that if your not imploring some kind of sizing method your doing yourself a real disservice. The ideal of quantifying your risk per trade to your equity is the foundation to build upon, not looking for the grail entries. Sadly this is where the sheep go astray. Risk sizing allows so much flexible-think about it you could scale down in long losing periods, scale up in winning periods.Also it give you a chance when the market contracts to load the boat in a proper way and let them ride to the moon in those trades(2-3%) according to my research . It's how you REALLY MAKE MONEY in this game..

That my man is a very interesting question ..lol
I can't and will not try to speak for Peter in this regard.
As for myself I have my own opions on this matter/subject and I leave it to that for now..

NEW LESSON learned today. Never turn your back on your dog when you leave your lunch next to the mouse that controls your order system!!!

Good day all,

This is wonderful concept i like it. i wish to share how i trade it:

1) Indy DIBS trigger lines 1.2v with mods
2) trader 101 tradehedge indy (modified)
- with this indy i see wich pair is strongest and weakest ( I trade only e/u, g/u and usd/j

I have't been so profitable EVER from 10 trading days: 9 wins, 1 loss
trade on 15 min timeframe

this is how my screen look like

guess what, i was in that u/j trade

P.S i trade only 1;1 risk reward

Forgot to tell THANK YOU to Bemac, Peter and jaroo, so THANK YOU!!!

Lovely Dibs at 7am on cable. Taking out the lows and falling 100+. I snatched profits on this, which is the area i need to work on, but still got 4x risk. woud now be 7x though...naughty me!

is it possible to attach the indicator or send the link ?

thanks
mason

Hi James996, thanks a lot for youre comments on this thread.
I tried to PM you, but unfortunatly it doesn't seem to work.
Nothing special, just a thank you for giving back.

Appreciated!

grtz,
Reas

The power of letting it run, as i said i snatched a quick 80 points out of the cable DIBs this morning, if i'd been patient i would now have my stop above the 11am candle (not yet closed) whose high is 16200, so even with stop at 16206 would've had 140 locked in and the chance of more.


LET THE WINNERS RUN!!!!!

Cable Dibs

here you go (i open it on 6 GMT(it's a script))

Sphinx,
how do you activate TradeHedge indi - doesn't seem to be working - can't be attached to a chart

I am brand new in my second day of DIBS trading. So far, so good. Four trades - one down three up.

I am looking for some expert philosphy on "Letting it Run, Baby!" after the first limit is hit and I've sold 1/2 of the position.

On one hand, the engineer side of my brain says to follow the rule book (as I understand it) leave it and walk away.

The greedy side of my brain says trail it within a couple of pips and take the profit sooner than later.

What do you guys say? How do you do it?

Murph

spoil sport.......no answer aye.

correlation maybe with oil and/or other commodities, indices or just support/resistance.

for a more regular pay check, wouldn`t S&R be something for you?
there was a guy that traded the hourly with a 90% win rate according to him with a 40 pips SL. can`t find the thread now. also strat in the trading systems section.
no regular profits in this?