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Jacko's Forex House of Pleasure and Pain

  • #9,421
  • Sep 21, 2009 7:26am Sep 21, 2009 7:26am
Quoting thedave
Thanks Bernard/ Narberth
These are the subtleties I was referring to in my original post. It's tempting to pull the trigger too soon from fear of missing out on a further strong bullish move.
My thinking was that if price broke below the 50% fib of the 14/9 17/9 move I would then wait for an entry at around 1.4600/ 1.4550 which seems to be the next area of major support/ resistance.
The problem is what-if.
What if price does rebound again off the Fib and takes off. Where would you next look for an entry?
Jacko is fairly confident that we are...
IMHO the move from 14/9 to 17/9 is not the move to take the fib from it is the move from 4/9. I think Jacko would look for the "bargain" below 1.45.
If price does bounce from 1.455 and make a new high I may have to think again. Also it remains to be seen what price will do if it gets back to 1.45. For what it is worth I think we will see 1.4550 today and the trade opportunity may arise tomorrow
Dance with the market .. I have two left feet
  • #9,422
  • Sep 21, 2009 7:33am Sep 21, 2009 7:33am
Well there you go.
My much vaunted fib has been blown away.
Respect to Narberth, Bernard
  • #9,423
  • Sep 21, 2009 11:50pm Sep 21, 2009 11:50pm
Mmmm- PA did not close below my (much vaunted ) fib at 1.4640 on the 4H and after being rejected just short of 1.4600 has formed pin-bar on daily with a high of 1.4710.
Just got up (live in the UK) and price has just broken the high of the pin-bar so I'm long with a SL just below 1.4600.
If I'm wrong I'll take it like a man and adopt the AH strategy to get back the lost pips.
To summarise my reasons for the trade
1. With the trend
2. Price rejected short of 1.4600 forming a pin bar on the 4H
3. Pin-bar formed on daily
4. Price could not close below the 14/9 - 17/9 fib on higher time frames.
I am comfortable with this analysis and won't beat mself up if I'm wrong but would be interested in any constructive critique
  • #9,424
  • Edited 1:36am Sep 22, 2009 1:35am | Edited 1:36am
Quoting thedave
Mmmm- PA did not close below my (much vaunted ) fib at 1.4640 on the 4H and after being rejected just short of 1.4600 has formed pin-bar on daily with a high of 1.4710.
Just got up (live in the UK) and price has just broken the high of the pin-bar so I'm long with a SL just below 1.4600.
If I'm wrong I'll take it like a man and adopt the AH strategy to get back the lost pips.
To summarise my reasons for the trade
1. With the trend
2. Price rejected short of 1.4600 forming a pin bar on the 4H
3. Pin-bar formed on daily
4. Price could not close below...
Looks good reasoning to me. I looked at the chart this morning and thought of your fib line . I am going to wait and see. Good luck
Dance with the market .. I have two left feet
  • #9,425
  • Sep 22, 2009 7:44am Sep 22, 2009 7:44am
I'm just pondering how to move my stop loss for this trade.
As I write I am 80 pips in profit and it has been as high as 100 so in Jacko's old trading style I would now be at break even (although recently he has abandoned the trailing SL method).
I definitely would not want to be in this trade if price retraced much below 1.4700 so I am moving my stop to 1.4685. fr now
  • #9,426
  • Sep 22, 2009 9:18am Sep 22, 2009 9:18am
Quoting thedave
I'm just pondering how to move my stop loss for this trade.
As I write I am 80 pips in profit and it has been as high as 100 so in Jacko's old trading style I would now be at break even (although recently he has abandoned the trailing SL method).
I definitely would not want to be in this trade if price retraced much below 1.4700 so I am moving my stop to 1.4685. fr now
I believe Jacko changed the style to fixed stop and target price while the EU was in a range we now have a bull trend so I think the 100 pip trail is valid.
Dance with the market .. I have two left feet
  • #9,427
  • Sep 22, 2009 9:37am Sep 22, 2009 9:37am
Quoting narberth
I believe Jacko changed the style to fixed stop and target price while the EU was in a range we now have a bull trend so I think the 100 pip trail is valid.
Yes, I agree. We have moved out of the range trading that he was so good at and we are in a bull trend
  • #9,428
  • Edited 9:20pm Sep 22, 2009 8:56pm | Edited 9:20pm
First Jacko trade.

I took the long off the 4650 bounce as well. It looked to me that price had breached the 4650 area which began to act as support. I remember reading somewhere in this thread that if price breaks a resistance area by at least 30-50 pips and then the old resistance becomes new support, we can enter a trade above the price as it bounces off support. That's what I did, I saw it bouncing off the 4650, I put a buy stop at 4700 which was filled. I set the 100 pip trailing stop loss and went to bed (PST). I woke up this morning and found my trailing stop had moved up to 4721, so I had some profit locked in.

I just now reviewed the charts tonight and am seeing price having trouble approaching 4850/4900 which has been significant resistance (look at late 2007/early 2008 and late 2008). So what I have done is move my stop loss to 4776 which is ten pips below the last 4H bar which could actually be considered a 2 bar pinbar if you look at the 8-hour chart. Sorry to bring up price action!

So basically it looks like price is stalling at major resistance so I tightened my stops. I got 3 lots locked in with 76 pips profit each...can't complain.....
  • #9,429
  • Sep 22, 2009 11:56pm Sep 22, 2009 11:56pm
First Jacko trade.

Placed my stop a bit lower - see arrows on chart for reason
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  • #9,430
  • Sep 23, 2009 12:03am Sep 23, 2009 12:03am
So you still holding it now with profit.
  • #9,431
  • Sep 23, 2009 1:11am Sep 23, 2009 1:11am
Quoting thedave
First Jacko trade.

Placed my stop a bit lower - see arrows on chart for reason

Yeah I was looking at that area too (though a little bit below it to allow for a bounce)...but decided to keep my original stop loss below the two bar pb off resistance...anyway I'll see how it plays out and learn.

I'm still in the trade..going to bed now so I'm going to activate my 100 pip trailing stop again and see how London and early New York treat me while I sleep...
  • #9,432
  • Sep 23, 2009 2:09am Sep 23, 2009 2:09am
Yes, both Lincoln and I are now in profit. The difficult bit is how to trail the SL and as you can see it's very much a matter of opinion.
If we were both trading strictly according to Jacko's method however I believe there would be no need to think - we would just have a 100 pip trailing SL and let it run.
  • #9,433
  • Sep 23, 2009 2:27am Sep 23, 2009 2:27am
And that, of course, is the perennial traders dilemma, and often the difference beteen success and failure. Taking profits too early,(and that includes holding your SL too tight ) but letting losers run too far is a recipe for disaster.
I believe that is why Jacko has his 100 pip trailng SL embedded in his rules- it stops you from being too clever. Always a problem for traders
  • #9,434
  • Sep 23, 2009 3:23am Sep 23, 2009 3:23am
Quoting thedave
And that, of course, is the perennial traders dilemma, and often the difference beteen success and failure. Taking profits too early,(and that includes holding your SL too tight ) but letting losers run too far is a recipe for disaster.
I believe that is why Jacko has his 100 pip trailng SL embedded in his rules- it stops you from being too clever. Always a problem for traders

I do agree so much is written about entry points but it is the exit strategy that makes the profit
Dance with the market .. I have two left feet
  • #9,435
  • Sep 23, 2009 3:36am Sep 23, 2009 3:36am
Quoting Bernard
Dollar is getting stronger in all fronts.
You better think again before too late.
Crystal Balls do NOT work in the FX market.
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  • #9,436
  • Sep 23, 2009 9:30am Sep 23, 2009 9:30am
hey what you guys think to go long @ 1.4700

because:

- yesterdays move 50% fib is sitting aprx 1.4711 so round to 4700
- short term support is around this level, however its really steap.


what are your thoughts?
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  • #9,437
  • Sep 23, 2009 9:43am Sep 23, 2009 9:43am
Quoting IliaM
hey what you guys think to go long @ 1.4700

because:

- yesterdays move 50% fib is sitting aprx 1.4711 so round to 4700
- short term support is around this level, however its really steap.


what are your thoughts?
I would prefer to buy below 1.47 but it has to get below 1.4750 first
Dance with the market .. I have two left feet
  • #9,438
  • Sep 23, 2009 12:09pm Sep 23, 2009 12:09pm
also FOMC statement is due
  • #9,439
  • Sep 23, 2009 12:30pm Sep 23, 2009 12:30pm
From what I've read, some either trail stops automatically through their platform or do so manually throughout the day. Those that trail their stops manually, do they simply move their stops so that they maintain an approximate 100 pip stop loss or do they look for S & R zones around the 100 pip area to place their stops? It seems to me that the latter would be more appropriate since arbitrarily placing stops 100 pips behind doesn't really take into account market action...would it not be safer to place a stop approximately 100 pips behind the current price AND behind a prior S & R zone? If so, then you sometimes might have a little less than 100 pips and sometimes a little more for your stop but you'll always have a nice S & R barrier to protect you.
  • #9,440
  • Sep 23, 2009 2:57pm Sep 23, 2009 2:57pm
Quoting Lincoln10
From what I've read, some either trail stops automatically through their platform or do so manually throughout the day. Those that trail their stops manually, do they simply move their stops so that they maintain an approximate 100 pip stop loss or do they look for S & R zones around the 100 pip area to place their stops? It seems to me that the latter would be more appropriate since arbitrarily placing stops 100 pips behind doesn't really take into account market action...would it not be safer to place a stop approximately 100 pips behind the current...
Hi,

The idea of using a 100 pip stop loss is that it is appropriate to the type of trade being taken here. Ideally we are trying to follow a trend and the theory goes that 100 pips should be large enough to avoid "market noise" but not so big that we have become investors instead of traders.

There is nothing wrong with placing stops behind S&R areas of course; but I find the 100 pip trailing stop (I do mine manually, 100 pips at a time) works very well with this strategy.

Regards,

Dan
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