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  • #145,481
  • Sep 22, 2009 8:04pm Sep 22, 2009 8:04pm
Does anyone seriously seriously think anyone would peg their currency to China's or to the Euro? If so, there better be some damn good reasons outside of the U.S. economy is crap, because that's on a global scale...



Quoting The Fool
....word on the street changes depending on which corner you standing on.

Maybe China would like to see the US continue to monetize its debt. The eventual result will be the destruction of the USD as the reserve currency. China will keep on buying Treasuries at whatever cost with this ultimate goal in mind.

Take a look around the junkyard & tell me what are the two and only two junkyard dogs? Them dudes bound to rumble sooner or later, one way or another.
In Charts We Trust!
  • #145,482
  • Sep 22, 2009 8:13pm Sep 22, 2009 8:13pm
As to the falling dollar......a weak dollar does not do the economy any good...it does not help pay off debt it does nothing, so because of this decline, I believe the FOMC reports tommorrow actually have a good chance of increasing Interest Rates.....both domestic and foreign investors will want a premium to offset the risk of currency depreciation. Plus a weak dollar discourages investors from boosting their portfolios in fear of their currency being debased.
In Charts We Trust!
  • #145,483
  • Sep 22, 2009 8:25pm Sep 22, 2009 8:25pm
Quoting X.Oden
As to the falling dollar......a weak dollar does not do the economy any good...it does not help pay off debt it does nothing, so because of this decline, I believe the FOMC reports tommorrow actually have a good chance of increasing Interest Rates.....both domestic and foreign investors will want a premium to offset the risk of currency depreciation. Plus a weak dollar discourages investors from boosting their portfolios in fear of their currency being debased.
that would be a shock. seeing how most people don't expect it. imagine the spike...
  • #145,484
  • Sep 22, 2009 8:28pm Sep 22, 2009 8:28pm
Quoting sed34
that would be a shock. seeing how most people don't expect it. imagine the spike...
More like end to an up trend. I think it'll be sold off regardless of the info. This would be one hell of a pump and dump if that were the case.
  • #145,485
  • Sep 22, 2009 8:28pm Sep 22, 2009 8:28pm
Shorts look good around 1.4850+
Have shorted at 1.4802 and another short waiting at 1.48565.

Anyone going short yet?

Cheers!
  • #145,486
  • Sep 22, 2009 8:36pm Sep 22, 2009 8:36pm
Quoting gatorinla
more then likely.. im gonna wait although a spike is not out the question.

usdx is near support and looks like it may not hold. im waiting for statement.. if eu goes down it will be a better buy price after. im just gonna wait till then
be nimmble or be flat
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #145,487
  • Sep 22, 2009 8:38pm Sep 22, 2009 8:38pm
I keep trading waiting for a decent move, and it's just back and forth.

I am getting just about to give up on the FX on the basis that there is nothing happening worth trading on. We can assume that once I give up on the longer time frame position trade, the big move will come.

Watch tomorrow, after everyone has said FED will not say anything about USD will say something about tightening and I'll be stuck on sidelines after trying to short this for a month.

Edit: maybe time to go long USDJPY - Does well in risk appetite and with unexpected strong dollar scenario...seems like it's hitting a bottom of sorts.
  • #145,488
  • Sep 22, 2009 8:40pm Sep 22, 2009 8:40pm
Is Tokyo on holiday all week? I'm not familiar with this holiday.
  • #145,489
  • Sep 22, 2009 8:43pm Sep 22, 2009 8:43pm
Quoting Leche Mocha
Is Tokyo on holiday all week? I'm not familiar with this holiday.
21st, 22nd & 23rd
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #145,490
  • Sep 22, 2009 8:44pm Sep 22, 2009 8:44pm
Quoting Leche Mocha
Is Tokyo on holiday all week? I'm not familiar with this holiday.
just til wed night US time. So tomorrow night it will be open.
  • #145,491
  • Sep 22, 2009 8:49pm Sep 22, 2009 8:49pm
I'm thinking dollar settles at 73. This was where it was at before freefall last year or pre Lehman Bros. currencies are returning to where they were before i think.
  • #145,492
  • Sep 22, 2009 8:55pm Sep 22, 2009 8:55pm
Well if there is ever a time the US Government wanted to save the economy, the way to do it is to raise interest rates tomorrow to leave the rates unchanged or drop it would be suicide...that's 20th century thinking..
In Charts We Trust!
  • #145,493
  • Sep 22, 2009 9:03pm Sep 22, 2009 9:03pm
Quoting X.Oden
Well if there is ever a time the US Government wanted to save the economy, the way to do it is to raise interest rates tomorrow to leave the rates unchanged or drop it would be suicide...that's 20th century thinking..
If they raise the rates, then forget the subprime mess. It will be the prime mess.

If they don't, people can technically borrow some money. I say technically because banks are doing what they should have done for the past 15 years, be diligent with their loans.

At least with a low interest rate, they can steal Japan's spot as the go-to place for the carry trade.
Not all sins are created equal
  • #145,494
  • Sep 22, 2009 9:07pm Sep 22, 2009 9:07pm
EU spiked 40pip wee before tokyo open, then cam back. Spike of this size before tokyo open is unusual. How do you read it ? sign of trend reversal or large order placed on long side ?
  • #145,495
  • Sep 22, 2009 9:08pm Sep 22, 2009 9:08pm
Quoting seafront
EU spiked 40pip wee before tokyo open, then cam back. Spike of this size before tokyo open is unusual. How do you read it ? sign of trend reversal or large order placed on long side ?
It was news.
  • #145,496
  • Sep 22, 2009 9:09pm Sep 22, 2009 9:09pm
Quoting seafront
EU spiked 40pip wee before tokyo open, then cam back. Spike of this size before tokyo open is unusual. How do you read it ? sign of trend reversal or large order placed on long side ?

Tokyo Open!?
Traders are smartasses
  • #145,497
  • Sep 22, 2009 9:09pm Sep 22, 2009 9:09pm
Quoting Jay Walker
If they raise the rates, then forget the subprime mess. It will be the prime mess.

If they don't, people can technically borrow some money. I say technically because banks are doing what they should have done for the past 15 years, be diligent with their loans.

At least with a low interest rate, they can steal Japan's spot as the go-to place for the carry trade.
This low dolar is temporary IMO, to help fund treasury with weak dollar. Any comeback in USD will pay in spades with dollar based assets. You think China is buying all those treasuries expecting dollar to collapse?
  • #145,498
  • Sep 22, 2009 9:11pm Sep 22, 2009 9:11pm
Quoting TIckerShuffl
This low dolar is temporary IMO, to help fund treasury with weak dollar. Any comeback in USD will pay in spades with dollar based assets. You think China is buying all those treasuries expecting dollar to collapse?
China is still buying treasuries?

I thought China was busy buying the gold the IMF put up for sale.
Not all sins are created equal
  • #145,499
  • Sep 22, 2009 9:11pm Sep 22, 2009 9:11pm
Tokyo Open = Japan Open. If you refer to Japan bank holiday today, then the spike is more....

Quoting Spsantos

Tokyo Open!?
  • #145,500
  • Sep 22, 2009 9:14pm Sep 22, 2009 9:14pm
Thanks though i didn't see it on FF calendar.

Quoting PriceVolume
It was news.
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