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Sonic R. System

  • #6,381
  • Edited 7:25am Sep 21, 2009 7:15am | Edited 7:25am
Quoting Rastaman
I am trying to follow Sonics footsteps in that GBP/USD trade to help me get a better understanding of entry. However this may have just opened another can of worms, as the pin bar I think Sonic saw as a setup...
Quoting traderathome
Here is a good example of how a H4 chart can show significantly different from one broker/server location to another server location ... Look how differently that "pin bar" Sonic referred to appears on the MT4 chart whose server is in different time zone than that which ODL has.
Hi Sonikers!

Pin bar or no pin bar, it does not matter as long you are paying attention to price action and S/R. Here is the weekly GU. I cannot take credit for having come up with this, as a friend of mine brought this to my attention. He is awaiting for break down from levels just below current price to go short the GU. Sonic looked for a SonicR (High at resistance, then a low, then a rally that stopped at a lower high, and entry at the break of the low). This is a Big Picture of a potential Big Decline on the GU.

I think the arrows on this picture I snapped are self-explanatory.

Good Luck!

-dday
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #6,382
  • Edited 7:52am Sep 21, 2009 7:42am | Edited 7:52am
tis the trade i eye on.

enter earlier, hopefully it a trend reversal though character of tis pair is rather erratic at times TWT

tp is still open.
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trade safe
  • #6,383
  • Sep 21, 2009 12:58pm Sep 21, 2009 12:58pm
Quoting ddaytrader
Hi Sonikers!

Pin bar or no pin bar, it does not matter as long you are paying attention to price action and S/R. Here is the weekly GU. I cannot take credit for having come up with this, as a friend of mine brought this to my attention. He is awaiting for break down from levels just below current price to go short the GU. Sonic looked for a SonicR (High at resistance, then a low, then a rally that stopped at a lower high, and entry at the break of the low). This is a Big Picture of a potential Big Decline on the GU.

I think the arrows on this...
ddaytrader, thanks for the heads up.....
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: # 119.gif Size: 29 KB
  • #6,384
  • Sep 21, 2009 1:10pm Sep 21, 2009 1:10pm
EU: Applying longer term outlook for GU to EU.....with lots of speculation....
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  • #6,385
  • Edited 4:33pm Sep 21, 2009 4:29pm | Edited 4:33pm
UJ Trade In Asia Session. I Liked The Wave. Let's See What Will Happen. Will Move SL To BE After +20 Pips.

Regards,
Basber
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Trading methods are designed to put the odds in our favor, not predicting.
  • #6,386
  • Sep 21, 2009 11:44pm Sep 21, 2009 11:44pm
EJ short set up. I dont know if the R:R is valid because I cant seem to place TP at correct place. Any views please?
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  • #6,387
  • Sep 22, 2009 1:11am Sep 22, 2009 1:11am
Quoting ag_fx
EJ short set up. I dont know if the R:R is valid because I cant seem to place TP at correct place. Any views please?
ag_fx, Sonic does not bother to trade the Asian session. Time and again, the PA thru the Asian session gives witness to why Sonic does not bother to trade during that period. So many times early in the Asian session it looks like a setup as occurred. But it will just sit and vegatate for hours, going not much in either direction. Even the FO can be nothing more than a head fake to the direcion PA will take after the LO and on thru the day.

Simply put, most Asian session setups are just a "still frame", and nothing much will happen until the FO/LO/USO. And the PA then can be in the opposite direction.
  • #6,388
  • Sep 22, 2009 1:14am Sep 22, 2009 1:14am
Quoting traderathome
ag_fx, Sonic does not bother to trade the Asian session. Time and again, the PA thru the Asian session gives witness to why Sonic does not bother to trade during that period. So many times early in the Asian session it looks like a setup as occurred. But it will just sit and vegatate for hours, going not much in either direction. Even the FO can be nothing more than a head fake to the direcion PA will take after the LO and on thru the day.

Simply put, most Asian session setups are just a "still frame", and nothing much will happen until the...
Thanks TAH for the reply. But , I have seen many good set ups originating out of Asian Session. Some of pretty valid ones. That was one reason I had been watching the set ups.

Lately I dont see any set ups(I cant should be the appropriate phrase) and neither do any sonikers have posted any set ups in recent times on thread. I was just wondering arent there no set ups or am I missing them.

Thanks anyways
  • #6,389
  • Sep 22, 2009 1:44am Sep 22, 2009 1:44am
Quoting Basber
UJ Trade In Asia Session. I Liked The Wave. Let's See What Will Happen. Will Move SL To BE After +20 Pips.

Regards,
Basber
TP Hit, +45 Pips.

Regards,
Basber
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Trading methods are designed to put the odds in our favor, not predicting.
  • #6,390
  • Sep 22, 2009 1:46am Sep 22, 2009 1:46am
Quoting ag_fx
Thanks TAH for the reply. But , I have seen many good set ups originating out of Asian Session. Some of pretty valid ones. That was one reason I had been watching the set ups.

Lately I dont see any set ups(I cant should be the appropriate phrase) and neither do any sonikers have posted any set ups in recent times on thread. I was just wondering arent there no set ups or am I missing them.

Thanks anyways
I've also noticed that some good set-ups often occur an hour before the Tokio close. Yesterday, for example, there was a good setup on EU right in the middle of Tokio session (I think the time is when Pakistan and middle east starts to trade)
  • #6,391
  • Sep 22, 2009 2:24am Sep 22, 2009 2:24am
Guys,,,

Been busy at the middle of the sea...with my proj...lately..with very bad internet connection...

My mobile modem has very low signal...

monitoring time to time thou...


Sonic
  • #6,392
  • Sep 22, 2009 3:56am Sep 22, 2009 3:56am
Quoting sonicdeejay
Guys,,,

Been busy at the middle of the sea...with my proj...lately..with very bad internet connection...

My mobile modem has very low signal...

monitoring time to time thou...


Sonic
Hey, Sonic! Hoping to see you back soon. We miss your master analysis skills.

Regards,
snu.
  • #6,393
  • Sep 22, 2009 4:28am Sep 22, 2009 4:28am
Quoting Basber
TP Hit, +45 Pips.

Regards,
Basber

nice trades.
trade safe
  • #6,394
  • Sep 22, 2009 5:13am Sep 22, 2009 5:13am
Quoting ag_fx
EJ short set up. I dont know if the R:R is valid because I cant seem to place TP at correct place. Any views please?
This one hit SL.
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  • #6,395
  • Sep 22, 2009 5:34am Sep 22, 2009 5:34am
Edit: pic.1 is the one on the right =)

Guys, I would like to share with you my little observation and ask you for a feedback on this. May be this can become a nice addition to the great Sonic R, which i'm still having troubles with, unfortunately.

I'm still in a process of working on this but results seem to be satisfactory most of the time.

It all started when we were talking about the 89-EMA and how to handle trades if we see, for example, a long set-up forming at the potential end of the downtrend when the 89 EMA is sloping down, price is below it and the channel is also sloping down.
For me it was and still is confusing to determine when we can and when we can't buysell into the 89 EMA. This is why I've come up with some rules which seem to work and help me get some pips.

Here is the deal: (I'm considering longs, shorts are opposite).

1. Look at picture number one:
-----------------------------

a. We have a nice double bottom, confirmed by divergence.
b. Price has been falling down past several days so retrace or reversal is expected.
c. We see clear Sonic Waves forming.

I've drawn My EP, SL (TP is irrelevant for now) lvls using the classic Sonic R rules. However, i wouldn't take the trade at this point as alot of times it had happened that my SL was taken out when price tested the 89 EMA and then retraced back to far (it could go all the way down and make a tripple bottom for example). Ofcourse, we could use a wider SL (SL 2 on the pic) but this is also not good as our RR ratio decreases and some of us simply can't allow to risk alot due to our account sizes. This is why I've tried to come up with several rules which help me to know for sure that from this point price is going to go up.

2.Take a look at picture number two:
-----------------------------------

1. We expect price to make a potential reverse or retracement as it either reached some important S&R lvl, or formed some kind of pattern.
2. Price starts to go up and tests the 89 EMA for the first time, after that it retraces. I would like to see it retrace just enough to form a nice HL, however as I already said it can go lower and take out our stops if we entered earlier.
3. After the retracement, price breaks the 89 EMA for the second time, making a Higher High than it made while breaking the 89 EMA for the first time.
4. Price retraces back to the 89-EMA and Sonic Dragon.
5. EP is when the price starts to go up again and breaks through the channel after retracing to the dragon and the 89 EMA.

Basically, the whole idea behind this is that we need to wait for price to break the 89-EMA two times to confirm our long position. We enter after second breakout and a pullback.

All the other nuances (like forming the HL and breaking the High of a poke-through) still need to be checked. As I've seen several examples when this was not a case, but price still did go up.

At the end just a few numbers from the current example using the "classic" entry and the "89-EMA confirmed" one:

Classic:
EP: 1.6200
SL: 1.6135
TP: 1.6315
R/R = 115/75 =~ 1.5

89-EMA confirmed:
EP: 1.6245
SL: 1.6217
TP: 1.6315
R/R = 70/28 = 2.5

As we can see that we don't make the same profit, however our R/R ratio is significantly higher (If we used a 5M TF for even earlier entry it could be even higher). Besides that, at this point I CAN be sure that there are not going to be any pullbacks that might kill my SL.

Please feel free to comment and suggest any improvements if this is worth improving. I hope I'm not moving away from Sonic with these "ideas". I rather was doing this to help me better understand the sytem itself.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: sonic entry-3.gif Size: 41 KB
  • #6,396
  • Sep 22, 2009 6:53am Sep 22, 2009 6:53am
Quoting ag_fx
This one hit SL.


I suppose the sonic channel lower line was a potential tp or point of resistance to be observed by itself.
I am using the auto SR indicator on my setup to showme important potential resitance levels and, as we can see on this chart, there are are two former resistance levels that became support levels, close together at the point it bounced. I am seeing DDs viewpoint that S and R is critical, the more I study this system.
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Starting to see instead of just looking.
  • #6,397
  • Sep 22, 2009 7:05am Sep 22, 2009 7:05am
Quoting Rastaman
I suppose the sonic channel lower line was a potential tp or point of resistance to be observed by itself.
I am using the auto SR indicator on my setup to showme important potential resitance levels and, as we can see on this chart, there are are two former resistance levels that became support levels, close together at the point it bounced. I am seeing DDs viewpoint that S and R is critical, the more I study this system.
The channel wasnt there during the time of PA. These channels repaint a lot and thus arent that reliable. Somehow didnt find any SR points around to Take Profit or move SL to.
  • #6,398
  • Sep 22, 2009 7:11am Sep 22, 2009 7:11am
Quoting ag_fx
The channel wasnt there during the time of PA. These channels repaint a lot and thus arent that reliable. Somehow didnt find any SR points around to Take Profit or move SL to.


Give this SR indicator a try, if it does not confuse you too much with all the lines.

Hope this helps
Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 mikko_autosr.ex4   6 KB | 419 downloads
Starting to see instead of just looking.
  • #6,399
  • Sep 22, 2009 7:17am Sep 22, 2009 7:17am
Quoting Rastaman
Give this SR indicator a try, if it does not confuse you too much with all the lines.

Hope this helps
Thanks for the indi Rastaman. But look what it has done to the chart. Dont you think its too messy


Lines and Lines everywhere!!
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  • #6,400
  • Sep 22, 2009 7:30am Sep 22, 2009 7:30am
Quoting snusnufreak
Besides that, at this point I CAN be sure that there are not going to be any pullbacks that might kill my SL.
Hi sf,

That is as dangerous a statement for a trader to make as there ever was.

You can never be sure of anything, and price does not care whether it is currently above or below any arbitrarily selected value that has been calculated (i.e. derived) from prior price levels.

You are free, of course, to trade in any manner you choose; and you are free to select any technical tools you wish to use as part of your decision making process.

But, you are fooling yourself if you believe that the secret key to avoiding losses is found in wating for price to be "confirmed" by an 89 ema or any other indicators.

Trade the waves, and the profits will take care of themselves. Use wave analysis to determine your EP and your SL. Use Support and resistance to determine your TP's. Follow Sonic's money management rules, i.e. use a stop loss based upon the waves, and move SL to BE after TP1, and the either exit at TP2 or trail your stop.

When Sonic says that "the Holy Grail is in you," he means this: The Holy Grail is the ability and the willingness to let your profits run and cut your losses short. This is the hardest part of trading: Most of us are tempted to let our losses grow larger "hoping" that price comes back and let's us out of a losing trade at breakeven, and we cut our profits short by exiting before price reaches our TP's because we fear that price will reverse and we will lose our small profit. This is human nature. Our psychology is such that we naturally are more willing to allow our losses to grow uncontrolled while cuting out profits quicker than we pull a weed.

Read Reminiscences of a Stock Operator. As Jessie Livermore tells us there, the trader needs to do exactly the opposite of what human nature desires: We should fear our losses to grow larger and therefore we should cut them short, and we should hope out profits to grow larger and therefore we should let them run to our TP's.

Without saying it explicitly, the implied aim of your post is not to cut you losses short and let your profits run, but rather, you are hoping to avoid losses altogether. That is not possible, and your trading will get noticeably better and your profits noticeably larger once you start to work more on yourself and less on your indicators.

Good Luck!
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