Daily candle chart

we had a strong advance, so we could see a retracement ... or not, i exited my position on friday, but im ready to go long again, either on retrace or after break of res. also on gold there is 1000, if it breaks its long term up, but it didnt break yet

also if we see a downturn in the dow, that means strength for the dollar, we saw last year that the dollar trended with gold & silver, so maybe its dollar up, gold and silver up, which means strong up for gold/silver in other currencies, which is good for me

speaking candle, we had a confirmed hammer on monthly silver

Hi dear Traders!

GBPLFX index is turning pretty bearish now, the bear flag just broken to the downside, time to short the pound? What do you think?

Chart:



The long legged doji means indecision, followed by this bearish candle, next parade 2.87 - 88, and then test support @2.83

Trade safe!

Jhon

i don't think we can see rectrement so far.. target still to 18.20

i dont know, im waiting for a reason to enter, it depends what gold does @1000

btw. hammer near resistance on daily cad yesterday

anyone know what happened to Hussin? I hope he's well.

after riot at tehran .. he missing

we now got downward indication with an bearish engulfing on weekly too, a good confirmation would be next weeks close below 1.6

notice, it has no upper wick, a very small lower wick making it a black opening marubozu, and engulfs two previous candle bodies

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I POSTED THIS ORIGINALLY AS A REPLY IN CABLE UPDATE THREAD.
I THOUGHT MY VIEWS MIGHT BE OF INTEREST TO LONGER-TERM TRADERS IN THIS THREAD AS WELL.
LINK:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...stcount=167305
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Hi Malcolmb,

I really cannot relate to the enthusiasm of the bears by any stretch of imagination. Consolidation Zone yes, but a new secular bear run? No Way!

CABLE
July 12th: cable closed @ 1.6273
Highs since July 12th:
August : 1.7043 +770 pips
September : 1.6742 +256 pips
Lows since July 12th:
August : 1.6153 -120 pips
September : 1.6112 -161 pips

USDX July 12th: USDX closed @ 80.237

Highs since July 12th:
NONE WHATSOEVER!!!

Lows since July 12th:
July 23th : 78.420 -1817
August : 77.428 -2809
September : 76.010 -4227

This is a ratio of 5 to 1 in Bulls' Favor since July 12th so far in Cable & a lot higher in USDX (in terms of Cable)!

Even this last Friday (despite weekly Engulfing) cable closed @ 1.6279 +6 pips

On Balance: VERY BULLISH FOR CABLE!

This July 12th level of 1.6273 seems to me to be quite a nice base for bulls to launch their assault against the ever weakening bears (see weekly ascending trendlines): Once successfuly rising to mid 1.7000s and another one recently to mid 1.6700s with minimal risk.

This concurs with the lower boundary of the consolidation zone of the massive bull run of 2800-3600 pips since early this year.

In fact, I think the Longer Price consolidates in this zone, the more accumulation of long positions and the higher the probability of a breakout to the upside!!!

Fundamentally, no single incentive can be ascertained for investors to carry dollars (which has a Negative Carry atm!) and dump other risk assets in its favor.
Nowdays you can even participate in rising U.S. equities by trading ES in foreign currency-denominated contracts. CME just introduced a eur-denominated contract. How convenient is that?!

For the argument's sake, even assuming a IR hike next week, which in all likelihood is not going to happen, BoE would raise even faster and even more aggressively once the green light is given from FOMC, as they did the other way around in the last several years, again making Sterling pretty resilient, not a shooting star, but pretty resilient, all things considered.

Some MPC members are touting the prospect of economic recovery already.
Consequently, I don't see any incentive whatsoever for Sterling to trade anywhere near 1.5300 any time soon, let alone make any new historical lows, in fact the opposite is more likely.

Nothing is absolute in this game of relatives but this scenario is, IMHO, more probable than the other.

The only exception would be USD/JPY, in an hawkish environment dollar would be the main beneficiary against Yen, and thus appreciate at least to 100 and maybe above as was evident just this last week by the very aggressive short squeeze taking a lot of shorts by surprise and sending chills down their spines just hearing rumors of potential FOMC rate rise consideration.


Cheers
GM

support for usdcad.

Hi!

Is this a valid bullish harami pattern on GBPLFX?



Btw, the pound is on strong support, we could see a range conditions here...



Jhon

I have the same chart Jhon ,possible bottom of down channel,sitting on 161,harami no confirmation

audllx rising 3?

Yen to weaken ?

Gold trading over 1000 ,high wave last week showing indecision ,still would say up to 127 at this point

gold daily

The $ is on support ,and last week gave the inmpression we have a star set up ,but trend is strong ,if support goes I think 74 is on the table

Very insightful post gm thanks,its great to hear from someone with obviously so much experience much appreciated for a newbie ,quite honestly I rely on such posts to progress....

possibly $ target is a bit low ,but further set backs may take us to 1

Morning star from bottom of range look to close (above 50%) ,possibily only pull back?

Hi Tony!
Did you copy my chart? ¬¬
I'm just considering candle analysis, but I see RSX & MACD pointing to north a lil bit here, maybe is pullback, maybe is trend continuation, I'm watching right now the daily candle forming on GBPLFX..., it looks like there's something buying pressure on 2.83 level..., at least until 2.87 level



What do you think Tony? Btw, I'm long on cable. At least until the touch of the descent TL

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...stcount=199135

Thanks

Jhon