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  • #144,981
  • Sep 21, 2009 2:22pm Sep 21, 2009 2:22pm
Quoting acumen
http://blogs.moneycentral.msn.com/to...n-october.aspx
And Bloomberg reports http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...d=a0ebYT7BCCi4

Always two sides - no wonder there is confusion
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #144,982
  • Sep 21, 2009 2:24pm Sep 21, 2009 2:24pm
Hi Guys,

i have been fallowing this forum for some time now, but i am out of ideas what do with my shorts from 50 and 77 i am running small minus now but what do you think does it drop back to 50 ? or should i sell it ? I have no ideas anymore.
  • #144,983
  • Sep 21, 2009 2:26pm Sep 21, 2009 2:26pm
Quoting egkid
Patience thanks again,My long view short,Could be right or wrong but this what i Believe
1-Us index hit the Bottom and ended 5ew ""If break 76 will be worry"
2-e/u shoould start new down ew by end of this month
3-e over price and that not good for europe export
4-downj and gold in reverse point
Check out acumen link
http://blogs.moneycentral.msn.com/to...n-october.aspx
and http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...90#post3034990

This also exactly...
i think 11 trillian is a little high..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #144,984
  • Sep 21, 2009 2:33pm Sep 21, 2009 2:33pm
whether you like or not recovery will be SLOW no one said the recession is over. At least we are not about to fall off the edge of the earth.
we should start to see dollar rebound...patience. I'm tired of the "doom and gloom" dog and pony show...like we havent heard it before.
  • #144,985
  • Sep 21, 2009 2:34pm Sep 21, 2009 2:34pm
Quoting Patience
And Bloomberg reports http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...d=a0ebYT7BCCi4

Always two sides - no wonder there is confusion
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...d=awiq7K1Ch3BU

Mike

Valero Energy
San Antonio, Texas-based Valero, the largest U.S. refiner, shut its plant in Aruba and is idling operations in Delaware City, Delaware. France’s Total, Repsol YPF SA of Madrid and Zug, Switzerland-based Petroplus Holdings AG have switched off refinery units in Europe.
  • #144,986
  • Sep 21, 2009 2:37pm Sep 21, 2009 2:37pm
Quoting mxb
whether you like or not recovery will be SLOW no one said the recession is over. At least we are not about to fall off the edge of the earth.
we should start to see dollar rebound...patience. I'm tired of the "doom and gloom" dog and pony show...like we havent heard it before.
agree, recession in US hasn't over yet, it just slow down. and also slow down with more mistake like bail out nd all thing. it might go up again with no fair policy but only phony theorys which led them to great downdrop which they won't be able to slow down n e more..
  • #144,987
  • Sep 21, 2009 2:38pm Sep 21, 2009 2:38pm
failure to bull up & double top perhaps to back some strong support may be 1.4650 level , shorts done .and as of H4 even to 1.4618 or below .
fontu
Attached Images
Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #144,988
  • Sep 21, 2009 2:41pm Sep 21, 2009 2:41pm
Quoting acumen
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...d=awiq7K1Ch3BU

Mike
damn wish i had thought of that *L* cant fill a full tank..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #144,989
  • Sep 21, 2009 2:42pm Sep 21, 2009 2:42pm
Quoting acumen
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...d=awiq7K1Ch3BU

Mike
Lol - I can't say I totally understand all of this article but I get the general gist of it so can I just highlight this paragraph and then give the link so that you may read the entire article if it interests you. I found it a tad interesting myself.

"What this would tend to imply is that there is still a high anti-USD link built into the price of crude oil and that it is not completely based of fundamental factors. If it were we should see the correlation between oil and the Euro weaken back into the normal (two standard deviations) range between -0.199 to 0.306, which should contain 95.6% of observations. What the analysis above would tend to imply is to not expect a significant USD-hedge boost to oil prices if the USD continues to weaken to its 2008 lows as much of the USD-hedge is likely already priced in to oil prices. We may already be seeing this as the Euro has broken out to a new high while oil is struggling near the $75/barrel mark."

http://www.financialsense.com/Market.../wednesday.htm
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #144,990
  • Sep 21, 2009 2:43pm Sep 21, 2009 2:43pm
Too bad the we don't move the markets, the banks do....

Today was a great day....made all my shorts I accumulated from last week and more today....and won on both long and short plays today....



Quoting Patience
I'm not suggesting anything. I'm just saying that when I start to see more traders going long than short (last week they were heavily short all week) then I'm going to be taking a second look at going long unless my chart agrees. Sentiment can change very quickly from one side to the other. With more traders seeming to be going long on the dips now, tomorrow's sentiment might show that there are more traders long than short.
In Charts We Trust!
  • #144,991
  • Sep 21, 2009 2:48pm Sep 21, 2009 2:48pm
As far as I know, the indicators are still pointing south for the EURUSD...the move up turns out was just a retrace....expecting more to come on the drop....we'll see I guess, in the meantime, either use small position sizing or tight stops...
In Charts We Trust!
  • #144,992
  • Sep 21, 2009 2:49pm Sep 21, 2009 2:49pm
Quoting Patience
Lol - I can't say I totally understand all of this article but I get the general gist of it so can I just highlight this paragraph and then give the link so that you may read the entire article if it interests you. I found it a tad interesting myself.

"What this would tend to imply is that there is still a high anti-USD link built into the price of crude oil and that it is not completely based of fundamental factors. If it were we should see the correlation between oil and the Euro weaken back into the normal (two standard deviations) range between...
we will see. but gold/oil and copper have a bullseye on them..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #144,993
  • Sep 21, 2009 3:00pm Sep 21, 2009 3:00pm
Quoting sophiaphia
weeee more moomo, like sophiaphia said 1.47522222222222
just curious. what does the naughty below your name imply?
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #144,994
  • Sep 21, 2009 3:03pm Sep 21, 2009 3:03pm
Quoting egkid
My long view short,Could be right or wrong but this what i Believe
1-Us index hit the Bottom and ended 5ew ""If break 76 will be worry"
2-e/u shoould start new down ew by end of this month
3-e over price and that not good for europe export
4-downj and gold in reverse point
Egkid, thanks for your comments.

I still think that the US$ has further to fall - maybe not at the moment - but eventually. I'm not into EW so I can't comment on that.

What is a little confusing for me at the moment is that the yearly ranges are over-extended compared to the average. If you look back at a daily chart from November 2007 to February 2008 we ranged between 75.00 and 78.00 on USDX (actually, I'll put a chart up) and if it wasn't for this time of year, I would have put my money on ranging for a few months but the big boys obviously want to make some money so maybe we'll have a stock indice bloodbath. They have that ruling in the US now that they can't short sell like they could when the market melted down last year as well http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124871727822084391.html

I don't believe in the green shoot theory either. It's yellow weeds. But going by my monthly USDX, I believe we are going to fall further. It's just the timing that I am unsure of.

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Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #144,995
  • Sep 21, 2009 3:04pm Sep 21, 2009 3:04pm
Quoting Patience
Lol - I can't say I totally understand all of this article but I get the general gist of it so can I just highlight this paragraph and then give the link so that you may read the entire article if it interests you. I found it a tad interesting myself.

"What this would tend to imply is that there is still a high anti-USD link built into the price of crude oil and that it is not completely based of fundamental factors. If it were we should see the correlation between oil and the Euro weaken back into the normal (two standard deviations) range between...
have a little
Inserted Video
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #144,996
  • Sep 21, 2009 3:07pm Sep 21, 2009 3:07pm
Quoting gatorinla
just curious. what does the naughty below your name imply?
why u want to know? lol hahaha
  • #144,997
  • Sep 21, 2009 3:08pm Sep 21, 2009 3:08pm
Quoting X.Oden
Too bad the we don't move the markets, the banks do....

Today was a great day....made all my shorts I accumulated from last week and more today....and won on both long and short plays today....
what u think about tomorrow long or short play?
  • #144,998
  • Sep 21, 2009 3:10pm Sep 21, 2009 3:10pm
well for me there is a hanging man on daily chart so my sentiments are bearish for tomorrow.
  • #144,999
  • Sep 21, 2009 3:12pm Sep 21, 2009 3:12pm
Quoting Alihuzaifa
well for me there is a hanging man on daily chart so my sentiments are bearish for tomorrow.
what about right now into asian session? and so on
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #145,000
  • Sep 21, 2009 3:14pm Sep 21, 2009 3:14pm
Quoting gatorinla
what about right now into asian session? and so on
I have accumulation of short positions.
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