EURUSD

big reversal candle in the M4!
i am looking now for a breakout pattern trough the trendline!

see it now for smaller move down perhaps to 48 or less this time in tf 5min before try further up above 1.47 .so the more up it will go now I will short for whatever smaller pips .
fontu

Looking froward to a good Sell off. For some reason monday NY session always reverses London/Asian session PA

let the downhell show begins

USDX 1 Hour Chart




USDX 4 Hour Chart

http://blogs.moneycentral.msn.com/to...n-october.aspx

That goes with my view
Also depends on my count Us index ended EW5 @76
Thanks

And even though a few traders have rubbished this sentiment index saying that if it was in the public domain, then it can't be any good, well I'm not posting it for you.

I'm posting it for those that have expressed their interest in it by PM to me. It works for me. Just another tool in the toolbox. Rubbish it at your peril because most times it's spot on and sometimes even more accurate than my chart.

SSI: Retail Traders Long Dollars Everywhere Except with GBPUSD and AUDUSD
Monday, 21 September 2009 17:21:34 GMT
Written by John Kicklighter, Currency Strategist



SSI Details:

EURUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the EURUSD stands at -2.15 as nearly 68% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -2.37 as 70% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 14.7% higher than yesterday and 28.6% stronger since last week. Short positions are 4.2% higher than yesterday and 1.1% weaker since last week. Open interest is 7.3% stronger than yesterday and 13.1% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more EURUSD gains.

How to Interpret the SSI? The FXCM SSI is based on proprietary customer flow information and is designed to recognize price trend breaks and reversals in the four most popularly traded currency pairs. The absolute number of the ratio itself represents the amount by which longs exceed shorts or vice versa. For example if the EURUSD ratio is 2.55, long customer orders exceed short orders by a ratio of 2.55 to 1. Conceptually similar to contrarian analyses using the CFTC IMM open position data or COT Report, the SSI provides an alternative approach that is both more timely and accurate in forecasting currency price movement. The SSI is a contrarian indicator that tells you how the market is weighted and where the trend may head. More long positions don't necessary suggest more confidence in the direction of the current trend. In general, when traders start having adverse movements against their position, many tend to increase the size of their position with the purpose to average down their entry price in one last attempt to recover from previous losses. However, the higher the number of short orders in a bull market the more dangerous is to take additional shorts because many of those traders who just entered the markets are also leaving their protective stop losses just above the current price action.

hey all,

i was wondering why Eur/Usd not retracing neither going up, from past few days it stuck in it's range. i mean are we waiting for any big news?

or n e idea which news will lead it to direction?

one more thing. In darkstar sticky, he said Forex is not investment thing, agree, but then why it corelate with stock and gold which is investment instrument. and only thing i know is DOW goes up --> eur/usd go up. do n e one have brife note on this?

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...d=aklIw7I0Di8k. This can bring down the price of gold for the short while so that they can buy it cheaper. This shuold help out the dollar

Thank you Patience

The VW shaped recovery........

De nada!

Did you note that I highlighted that traders are now going long on the EU rather than short (like last week). Could be a sea change happening here. Although more gains are expected because more traders are short, I start to get a little nervous when I see sentiment starting to go the other way i.e. that retail traders are now starting to go long on the dips. That's when you've got to go by your chart more because it's not so one-sided anymore. Good trades.

hi,are u suggesting to wind up short positions?

nice.. ty for info.. so if we see more short in bull market mean people bealive it will come down to match their avg price, and once we see more long it mean price movement to downwards is over and they close open position to initiate long position. am i right on this?

actually i've don this too, but but like in scalping.. just for 20-25 pips, but still it's comman method to reduce some loss, or to get profit in wrong trade.

I'm not suggesting anything. I'm just saying that when I start to see more traders going long than short (last week they were heavily short all week) then I'm going to be taking a second look at going long unless my chart agrees. Sentiment can change very quickly from one side to the other. With more traders seeming to be going long on the dips now, tomorrow's sentiment might show that there are more traders long than short.

your right. even the employed average work week is down 7 hours. so the few finding jobs are working for less. with job market so bad employers are cutting wages. many are under-employed, meaning they are part time when they need full time. then the ones who stopped looking are not included. add in severance pay running out (they are not included in unemployed figures either)
yeah its not a good picture. baltic dry shipping says it and oil demand down 5.5% in china concurs. take out all the gov. money all over world and we are doa. gov. money cant last forever. this is all govs. doing this all over the world. china has unrest and it would not take much to set it off. u.s. consumer is not buying and china will only get worse untill he does.

if not today then hopefully tomorrow

should be a healthy amt of stops sitting after few days, hmmm wonder where perhaps over 47

Patience thanks again,My long view short,Could be right or wrong but this what i Believe
1-Us index hit the Bottom and ended 5ew ""If break 76 will be worry"
2-e/u shoould start new down ew by end of this month
3-e over price and that not good for europe export
4-downj and gold in reverse point
Check out acumen link
http://blogs.moneycentral.msn.com/to...n-october.aspx
and http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...90#post3034990

This also exactly my view "Copy"
Well, in my opinion we are still in a recession. Unemployment is still high, (and probably still rising), housing is still in the dumps with rising foreclosures and a new wave of mortgage resets coming in 2010 - 2011, and it's tough to get credit so consumers are spending less. How can this be good? How can economies grow when people are losing jobs or are afraid they are going to lose their jobs? Apparently, there is something I am missing, and until I figure that out I still think we are in a recession that is artificially being slowed down from a lot of government stimulus. I am bearish on risk until the someone figures out how to replace the almost 7 million jobs lost and find jobs for those coming to the job market fresh out of college and high school.

Fed printed 11 trillion in 1 year All this debet! That what they call recovery LOL

Just pick up ur entry and keey ur eyes on it