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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #43,981
  • Sep 17, 2009 12:47am Sep 17, 2009 12:47am
Quoting nasir.khan
Hey Jarroo i have a question about this trade.

As you can see two Traffic boxes in you chart and you trade was falling right into them right?

But the black filled box shows us some space.

So does that mean that if price make noise and traffic in a particular area and then make some space in that area our trades are safe then before.
Nicely illustrated nasir.

Yes, absolutely. Trades are safer when there is big space (no traffic) no matter how the space is created. This is what Mike is always drilling into our heads. Swing Highs and Swing Lows by there very creation, have space. This allows our setup to have room to move more easily.
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #43,982
  • Sep 17, 2009 12:55am Sep 17, 2009 12:55am
Bundy,
that def woke me up first thing today

Quoting bundyraider
The cherry video was the first one or two in the guest section, if that makes it easier.

Mikes Cherry Video
If you can wait and not be tired by waiting...
  • #43,983
  • Sep 17, 2009 12:57am Sep 17, 2009 12:57am
SP Rusty Jeff & Mike,
thanks I'm going to take a look ...

Quoting rustyjeff
yep thats it...

edit... i mean "pin bar introduction"
If you can wait and not be tired by waiting...
  • #43,984
  • Sep 17, 2009 1:05am Sep 17, 2009 1:05am
Jaroo- thank you for the quick reply.



Quote
But what we are really after is the best case senario, The A + trade. Where the PB is at a deep swing High/Low, huuge space, and penty of supporting confluences. (PPZs, Fib Levels, etc.)

I will go over the rules for pins again, and make sure to watch for swing highs/lows. I learned something that will stick in my head tonight! I can see how the A+ trades build the account, I need to get the 'need' to trade out of my head.

Quote
Once PA breaks we have to be aware that when Price reaches these area of expectancy we have to make the decision to take some off the table and move to break even or take full profit, etc. Yes, even with the Gbp/Usd PB.

What do you mean by the bolded text? As soon as my order is reached, I need to move up my stop? How would I do this I only sit down at the computer once a day? (I'm at the comp all the time, but I'm training myself to do this alongside a fulltime job, once i get another)

Quote
I like the FxPro charting feed because the Daily close is at 5:00 PM EST. (just like Mike) That may help.

I'll check it out!

Thanks!
  • #43,985
  • Edited 1:28am Sep 17, 2009 1:12am | Edited 1:28am
Quoting joelcf
I had a girlfriend....
Every new yorker I have ever met has pronounced it the same, lol. ....

http://www.amazon.com/Options-Future...ref=pd_sim_b_3
Ah... the Brooklyn tongue. noo-yawk, noo yok.. hihih
Thanks for the book recommendation.
  • #43,986
  • Edited 2:21am Sep 17, 2009 2:03am | Edited 2:21am
Quoting atclarkson
Jaroo- thank you for the quick reply.

What do you mean by the bolded text? As soon as my order is reached, I need to move up my stop? How would I do this I only sit down at the computer once a day? (I'm at the comp all the time, but I'm training myself to do this alongside a fulltime job, once i get another)

Thanks!
Although the Gbp/Usd PB was tradable it was not the Ideal (A+) trade we would like to take. So we would have to manage it very tightly or not trade it at all. Meaning I would not place my stop loss at the bottom or low of that bullish PB like I would with an A+ setup.

You could set a limit order (take profit) at the 1st area of trouble (green line) and move your stops up or trail your stops.


demo demo demo, my friend.
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #43,987
  • Sep 17, 2009 2:34am Sep 17, 2009 2:34am
Quoting StoragePro
Congrats man. really excellent.

I went thru a period where I was pretty sure that the method was BS... and Jim was a scammer ... Believe it or not. I DID find the BS, it was inside of me. Since then I got profitable on demo, and then went live.

I remember the light shining a whole lot brighter when I saw Mike's "Cherry" video too. It was a Eureka moment for me.

Now the hardest part of this is to keep the concepts simple and trade the best setups. As soon as I get sloppy, or start making crap up, I get clubbed on a trade.
Thanks SP.

I was trawling through Fiji's psych forum like cartman @ a cheesy poof buffet over e wkend. Saw tt similar post of yours and totally related to it.

Yes, the BS was all in my head. Wrote in a prev post tt this is the "complexity trap". I was thinking, if 2 indicators gives me X% accuracy, how about FOUR! Then if there are just A, B & C grades for each. The permutations alone would be enough to overwhelm me.

Quoting StoragePro
Now the hardest part of this is to keep the concepts simple and trade the best setups. As soon as I get sloppy, or start making crap up, I get clubbed on a trade.
Fully agree. I've really been taking a good, hard look @ myself and my psychology. James' methods are awesome, if he and the rest of you guys can make it work, then I am the problem. In my head.

I realised lately that when I start making sh!t up, it's because my left brain is going, "ok. if this, then this, therefore this". Which is rubbish!
The market will do what it does, opinions or otherwise!

Actually, in that sense, we club overselves in the head (ok, just me) by having an "opinion"... which I suppose was me subtly thinking, "I am smarter than the market and know what it is most likely to do".... oooooo. *club* More often that not, it rips up my opinion.

Doing some reflection over the weekend, I realised that having an opinion, is in essence trying to predict the future. If I can't even predict whether the next 10 ticks from now accurately... how can I predict the next X-thousands?

Opinions limit our expectations of what the market can and "should" do. Thus, sometimes, we take stupid trades, dont see signals that we should and only see it in 20/20 hindsight. This is because when we form an opinion about something we naturally look for stuff to confirm it and see things that the market is actually not telling us --> "why the hell did you do tt??!" yup.

This reminded me of 3 "Laws" of Price Action which I read from Chick Goslin,
(1) The Future is Unknown
(2) Continuation is More Likely Than Change
(3) Prices Fluctuate

For me, this translated to PA with the trend, manage trades and place stops ideally where fluctuations dont take you out.

Quoting StoragePro
Now the comment about the psych side of things.

Since I know from hard experience over a number of years now, that waiting for the best setups pays off like crazy in account increase and peace of mind, why is it that I still feel the pull of the less than beautiful?

I think that my brain hates me.
I actually have been asking myself the same thing! Why do I trade less than optimal setups??!

I think it's because at some level in our minds, we perceive opportunity, and therefore do not want to miss out on participating on it. "Hey, if looks ok, why not? It might not be a homerun, but pips are pips arn't they?"

I've yet to really come to a place where I can psychologically just wait for the A grade stuff to setup and have come to accept that as I get better, perhaps one day I will. But in the mean time, the way I'm managing this is to chop down my bet size and t/p 1/2 @ 1R, let the rest run & manage accordingly. Worst case I get stopped out on my second position real quick and breakeven, best case, I have 1/2 size running.

This sounds really philosophical... but I realised that I can't quite force myself to change. The more I tell myself, "dont take those B grade things. A+ only! High probability homerun stuff!", the more I struggle.

But in realising more about myself and personal psychology, I find that change comes naturally. Actually, since I've kinda found this "t/p 1/2 @ 1R" thingo on smaller size idea, and accepted that, ya well, I take B grade trades here and there... I've actually been taking LESS crappy stuff in general.

I can't quite explain why.

Edit: I was reading Mark Fischer some time this year. He said, sometimes we make dumb trades. But if you're going to do something stupid, KEEP IT SMALL!!!
The acceptance of our fallibility allows us to deal with it more directly and thus reduce it.
Trying to fight it and/or deny its existance at best, keeps it @ status quo.
My 2 pips
One Mind, Any Market
  • #43,988
  • Sep 17, 2009 3:05am Sep 17, 2009 3:05am
any body looking at AUDJPY and EURCAD 4H BEOB's.
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  • #43,989
  • Sep 17, 2009 3:07am Sep 17, 2009 3:07am
Quoting StoragePro
Now the hardest part of this is to keep the concepts simple and trade the best setups. As soon as I get sloppy, or start making crap up, I get clubbed on a trade.

HEAR, HEAR!!!!
  • #43,990
  • Sep 17, 2009 4:16am Sep 17, 2009 4:16am
Quoting nasir.khan
any body looking at AUDJPY and EURCAD 4H BEOB's.
hey nasir, i really dont see any play on the eurcad4hr
as for your audjpy4hr beob, you hav trouble area at 78.80, it has space to the left though, i would watch to see how it plays out but wont be pulling the trigger
just my 2cent
Simplicity is the key to success
  • #43,991
  • Sep 17, 2009 4:20am Sep 17, 2009 4:20am
Quoting joelcf
...What's the level that you can trade without running into issues? It will depend on the turnover of the pair in question, the time of day, and the general market activity at the time. Short answer - dunno

[/size]
Joel,
Great stuff once again. From my background, hedge funds (managed futures funds in my case) can place a $20M order on a major pair with a bank and not get any slip (wider spread). It will be significantly less as you start trading pairs that don't provide the same liquidity and are geographically specific (say USD/DKK). The majors have this liquidity from Japan open through NY close. The few hours between those times can get a little illiquid as only AUD and NZD are open...So to get a larger position (say 200M) you would need 10 orders of 20M... spread out over some time... NOTE: it's possible I suppose that they could place a larger order without slippage... I only know that 20M is not a problem.

Of course, that doesn't mean we could place a 20M order with our broker. I think Ryan has mentioned that Oanda doesn't like orders over a few Mil.

Totally agree about PA vs everything else. In my experience, in managed funds, the reason for the trade is unknown to the person placing the trade... so tight black box with several that simply execute trades as they are spit out of the box. However, looking at any chart and through experience, we can tell how psychologically important major round numbers are.

Happy Trading. Time to watch some vids...

Josh
  • #43,992
  • Sep 17, 2009 5:20am Sep 17, 2009 5:20am
2 Dojis side by side on 4 hr NZD/USD with div
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  • #43,993
  • Sep 17, 2009 5:31am Sep 17, 2009 5:31am
Quoting bundyraider

More info and a chart below.
hey Bundy,
thanks a lot for this post, you explained it really well that was exactly the kind of explanation i was looking for (especially because of the chart, it makes your point very clear).
nonick
  • #43,994
  • Sep 17, 2009 5:57am Sep 17, 2009 5:57am
Quoting joelcf
If you ever figure out the answer to this one, please feel free to share it. I'm still stuck in the gravitational pull of the B/C trade, and escaping isnt as easy as 'just say no' (even though it should be).
I believe more than ever that passing on mediocre setups is the holy grail.

And it takes a long time to achieve. I'll let you know when I get close. I've got a way to go yet.

The losers I hate are the ones where I look back and think "what the hell was I doing in that?" Ie: Most if not all of them.

Work on the psych, visit fijitrader's section in pf, eliminate those trades and boom...nothing can stop you.

On my monitor I have two post it notes. One is a list of the 4H bar close times on the three charting platforms I use. The other says simply "opening charts, passing, and closing them again.... IS the holy grail"
  • #43,995
  • Sep 17, 2009 6:34am Sep 17, 2009 6:34am
Quoting supremeChaos
left-brain, analytical...
You'd think that, but according to this I'm right brained. Go figure. Although it does change direction for 1/2 second counter-clockwise but always correct to clockwise. Other test say left, don't think it matters to much, or does it? Hmm...

http://www.i-am-bored.com/bored_link.cfm?link_id=25642

Quote
i believe any sport, hobby , recreation does.
I joined a local hiking group that goes out on hikes most of the week, I'm going to get more active in the next few weeks.
Don't wish it were easier, wish you were better. ~ Jim Rohn
  • #43,996
  • Sep 17, 2009 6:39am Sep 17, 2009 6:39am
Not sure if this was posted before, but it looks like on the GBP/USD there is a very interesting area to keep the eyes on.

We have a PPZ, 50 fib and ascending trendline. I am watching it and looking to see for Price Action there.
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  • #43,997
  • Sep 17, 2009 7:20am Sep 17, 2009 7:20am
Quoting Ryanmcd
That is so true, lots of people that master what they do get into the market and expact the same. The people that do the worst are the Doctors / teachers / and IT type people because the job is the same thing over and over and the market is not that.
I'm an IT guy - work on the vendor side and I have gotten to be very good at what i do. It ain't bit twiddling anymore though. I figured exactly what Ryan says above - this was just another job.

It is not - it is completely different and the most of skills in my day job do not apply. To be honest, once I really came to understand this, it was really refreshing.

Quote
One of my friends up in NY lost a little over 1 million in the past 12 months trying to get the bottom of the banks, well he never got it and walked away for some time off, he offered to pay for me to come and help him out lol I just do it over the phone now for free, but to be honest most people in the market are like him, they do great at a "real" job and just and try to do the same thing in the market and get hammered.

Ouch. I'd be mortified to bring that to my CPA... He'd make me feel worse I am sure!

Quote
I come from a IT field and when I got into this my last mentor told me I am going to have a hell of a time trying to get something that works all the time because it's just not going to happen, He was right too I wasted LOTS of time looking for the one setup I could trade over and over without a loss and it's not there.

I think everyone does this. No matter what you do to tell people otherwise. It is the old real world expectations and skill set clubbing you again.
I'm pretty much done with all this ...
  • #43,998
  • Sep 17, 2009 7:50am Sep 17, 2009 7:50am
EURCHF H1 is showing a BIG BEOB

What do you guys think of it
  • #43,999
  • Sep 17, 2009 8:16am Sep 17, 2009 8:16am
Quoting bundyraider
Then the flight prices will be up too. lol

Damn cheap of late , eh?

I have an Aussie mate here who is going home for Christmas with his family of 4..
He keeps asking me when the US dollar is going to get stronger..
I said, at this rate its going to be on par by then. he is shitting himself..

We both came to the States in 2000... when the aud was @ about .48-.50..
getting shafted both ways is kind of annoying
  • #44,000
  • Sep 17, 2009 8:41am Sep 17, 2009 8:41am
Quoting rustyjeff
I have an Aussie mate here who is going home for Christmas with his family of 4..
He keeps asking me when the US dollar is going to get stronger..
I said, at this rate its going to be on par by then. he is shitting himself..

We both came to the States in 2000... when the aud was @ about .48-.50..
getting shafted both ways is kind of annoying
At this rate your friend can buy California soon... and it won't be soon enough!
I'm pretty much done with all this ...
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