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  • #142,461
  • Sep 14, 2009 2:16pm Sep 14, 2009 2:16pm
Quoting iefke
oh kk yeah its just doesnt seem to know what to do
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  • #142,462
  • Edited 2:20pm Sep 14, 2009 2:16pm | Edited 2:20pm
At this point, this is a market, that even if it should drive me to a margin call, I will forgive it (hence really myself). If these markets did what they should, not even Mel Gibson with blue facepaint, a Mohawk and and a crucifix the size of a Remington 870 could save them.

  • #142,463
  • Sep 14, 2009 2:23pm Sep 14, 2009 2:23pm
Quoting n000b
Price getting closer to my entry price, BUT I'll wait for the MAs to cross to the downside for confirmation.
OK guys and my dear Hasnaa, time to enter shorts for EU. I am in with 75% of lots of the total lots I am gonna short for this trade, if the price heads north for like 50-100 pips will add rest of 25%, otherwise will let these 75% ride to the TP. I am looking for just a few hundred pips move south .
If it floats, flies, or f%^ks, rent it, it's cheaper.
  • #142,464
  • Sep 14, 2009 2:26pm Sep 14, 2009 2:26pm
Quoting Jay Walker
Good to see you again D55
Hi Jay
The best thing that can happen to you is to find out where you're wrong.
  • #142,465
  • Sep 14, 2009 2:30pm Sep 14, 2009 2:30pm
So price back from halfway to the top again & another time it to go near bottom 1.4447 , H4 & up tf still up & not much sell off effects but developing .
fontu
Attached Image
Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #142,466
  • Sep 14, 2009 2:32pm Sep 14, 2009 2:32pm
With it coming to the middle of September and the end of the quarter, I'd assume all this run up is because of gold/stocks and some positive info stuck in between. Also the big boys needed to book/show profits and padding their performance numbers and paychecks.

I feel that the spikes we're seeing are attributed to them liquidating long positions which they've held for 3 months straight and looking to short from above the 61.8% as protection should it reach this level again.

Central Banks are selling, huge sell off today in stock in the beginning really hits home that people are getting out and taking profit. Oil is sliding down, gold seems topped out for the time being, and the dollar index is doing a fine job of making a bottom.

There may be a spike to 1.4720 but I expect a bearish eurusd through the last week of september and well into October especially if this pair ends this week in a doji. Buy low and sell high right.... to get lower they (big money) needed this spike to gain momentum and go lower.

Nobody knows whats going to happen. But a large retrace and blowing all the "backfilled" stops would certainly not be out of the question.
  • #142,467
  • Sep 14, 2009 2:34pm Sep 14, 2009 2:34pm
Hello Driver, from your neighbor in Greece. I think You have Cordially saluted this thread roughly a million times, so for once I'd like to say Hi back.
  • #142,468
  • Sep 14, 2009 2:48pm Sep 14, 2009 2:48pm
Im long since .4573 and holding on tight.
  • #142,469
  • Sep 14, 2009 2:52pm Sep 14, 2009 2:52pm
Quoting SerpentDove
Hello Driver, from your neighbor in Greece. I think You have Cordially saluted this thread roughly a million times, so for once I'd like to say Hi back.
Thankyou SerpentDove
The best thing that can happen to you is to find out where you're wrong.
  • #142,470
  • Sep 14, 2009 2:58pm Sep 14, 2009 2:58pm
Quoting Byrd
Nobody knows whats going to happen. But a large retrace and blowing all the "backfilled" stops would certainly not be out of the question.
Byrd, its a good an explanation as any. I would say there seems to be some pretty good protection going on around .4630/50 level. Who is that? Asian banks - has been the rumor. Seems like these big spikes have been coming during London/NY sessions and then bled down afterwards. But is that naive? I have to believe the big players are doing these deals purely algorithmically & can enter/exit whenever they please, whenever conditions fit their needs. Just when that resistance seems solid another spike will smash through it. Or, just when you think this E/U runup will never end, bam, the party will be over. One or the other will happen, when? If somebody thinks they have their freakin' Andrews Pitchfork or Elliot Wave analysis on top of this game & can trade appropriately - hat's off. I would rather just stay out of Big Dog's way.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #142,471
  • Sep 14, 2009 3:06pm Sep 14, 2009 3:06pm
back to the market....
from my point of view.... now ( on the short term) .. we should not lose the 4615 level


EDIT : It seems they are preparing another leg upward
The best thing that can happen to you is to find out where you're wrong.
  • #142,472
  • Sep 14, 2009 3:15pm Sep 14, 2009 3:15pm
imo Tonight (US) we get a good move into mid and upper 1.46, the move I wanted to happen all daaay. 1.4630ooooo
----- Dragonfly out in the sun you know what I mean, don't you know
  • #142,473
  • Sep 14, 2009 3:20pm Sep 14, 2009 3:20pm
Quoting SerpentDove
At this point, this is a market, that even if it should drive me to a margin call, I will forgive it (hence really myself). If these markets did what they should, not even Mel Gibson with blue facepaint, a Mohawk and and a crucifix the size of a Remington 870 could save them.

Parakalo!

Any idea what one gets when profits burst upper ceiling of the account limit? Never been there. Faristo.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #142,474
  • Sep 14, 2009 3:22pm Sep 14, 2009 3:22pm
now we talkin..!
Quoting n000b
OK guys and my dear Hasnaa, time to enter shorts for EU. I am in with 75% of lots of the total lots I am gonna short for this trade, if the price heads north for like 50-100 pips will add rest of 25%, otherwise will let these 75% ride to the TP. I am looking for just a few hundred pips move south .
  • #142,475
  • Edited 3:39pm Sep 14, 2009 3:26pm | Edited 3:39pm
Quoting Chicky
Parakalo!

Any idea what one gets when profits burst upper ceiling of the account limit? Never been there. Faristo.
60% ROI instead of 165% on the year.
Oh wait, did you mean if my trades come through? 200%
A pat on the back never happens though, if You win alot your a lucky lazy gambler, if you lose alot your a lousy lazy gambler.
If I crap out I'm still in the tuition phase and the broker has picked up most of that tab so far.
Life's good.

Since November I've focused on growing my bank account instead of my trading account. Trading account goes Kaboom = new trading account and living off of profits all along.
  • #142,476
  • Sep 14, 2009 3:26pm Sep 14, 2009 3:26pm
Quoting Atlast
hmmm, Goldman and others again, this time chinese state firms got screwed billions by buying complicated derivatives on oil options.
from couple days ago, but didn't see the news posted here.
UPDATE 2-China backs state firms on oil options losses

Starting from January, SASAC has sent a series of warnings to crack down on the sale of derivative products by foreign banks to Chinese enterprises who bought protection against higher prices last year only to watch the market collapse
http://uk.reuters.com/article/idUKPEK1447420090907...
I'm a bit slow on the uptake sometimes and although I read this article when you posted it, I didn't really get the full implications

Now that I've had a little more time to do some more reading (of articles that stated things in more simpler terms for me to understand) I get it now. Adding to all this derivative mess, the fact that the US and China are now slapping protectionist tariffs on goods, this could get really, really messy. Here's one of the articles I read:

How to Prepare For China’s Coming Derivatives Default

China, who owns more Treasuries and dollar-denominated assets than anyone, was obviously not too pleased about this. They’ve asked time and time again for the US to stop what it is doing. However, Geithner, Bernanke, et al, simply plowed ahead ignoring their requests (Geithner actually told a group of students in China that the math behind the US’s policies were solid which resulted in the students laughing at him).

China’s decision to default on its commodity derivatives is a very clever means of slapping the US Federal Reserve in the face without “going nuclear” by selling Treasuries outright.

Commodities account for the smallest portion of derivatives on US commercial bank balance sheets ($938 billion out of $200 trillion). A default here would trigger a chain reaction that could essentially wipe out the Fed’s attempts are re-capitalization (the US banks would suddenly be on the hook for billions in losses that they didn’t expect). It’s a very serious indirect way of China saying, “if you want to continue screwing around, we’ll simply walk away from the table.” But they’re doing it in a select asset class that no one but Wall Street engages in (derivatives).



The primary issues now are:

  1. Whether China WILL actually begin defaulting (remember, so far it’s just a threat).
  2. Whether or not China’s decision would trigger a larger chain reaction in the derivatives markets.
  3. How the US will respond to China’s threat.

... that a derivative chain reaction throughout the financial system could cause a full-blown implosion like September-November 2008. We’re talking about massive volatility (2%+ swing days) and a stock market collapse of 20-30% within a matter of weeks.

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/index....icle&sid=13426

Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #142,477
  • Sep 14, 2009 3:28pm Sep 14, 2009 3:28pm
Quoting SerpentDove
60% ROI instead of 165% on the year.

This is still tuition.
Maintainable earnings?
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #142,478
  • Sep 14, 2009 3:29pm Sep 14, 2009 3:29pm
Anyone trade UCAD? So dam annoying that dam pair
  • #142,479
  • Sep 14, 2009 3:37pm Sep 14, 2009 3:37pm
Quoting vinesh2
Anyone trade UCAD? So dam annoying that dam pair
That pair also seems to be in a fix. You may like to check USD/JPY trying to pave its way through 91, good r/r.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #142,480
  • Sep 14, 2009 3:42pm Sep 14, 2009 3:42pm
I ready got 60 pips put of that but have been in UCAD trade for over a month. Being extrmely patient but now its running thin
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