Platypus journal

Hi guys...


I'm not having too much time to write ( not time even to trade) because I'm doing some hard core coding, but I just want to advise the people that usually stop here and read what I write that the last events are trading counter intuitively so watch out for this kind of thing on this friday non farm.


For example the last non farm, the euro was inflated out of proportion than the numbers came really good so people packed up on the long side just to see a big price drop. I saw quite a few of this kind of behavior lately. If you have a solid system off course it will tell you, but a lot of people trade fundies or just out of feelings anyways..... so at least I'm trying to give a word of advice.


Trade safely !

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Sometimes it is funny to look around and have a feeling on how many sectors of the trading world behave in relation to each other. The so called “correlations” as people call it, follow the same rules as fundamentals, meaning that “it works” as long as you know “what” will work.


As a example watch the video below. The trader is trading oil but doing it based on the dollar mood, while in the other side of town another trader is trading the dollar according to oil. Equities traders are watching gold, and commodity traders are watching bonds, bond traders are watching futures and China, but Chinese are pissed because the dollar is falling, that will make their reserves go down in price but lifting the price of oil, and than we have the circle closed.


As a human I'm tempted and I do watch other markets other than the one I'm specifically trading. I like to watch the VIX which is basically futures, bonds, commodities, etc. But the bottom line is that it is more a psychological matter than actual factual necessity.


Just like a bunch of kids lined watching each other to see who will jump first in the pool, and after one does all of them go together, we are in a very psychological kind of business and if the E/U will lead a oil rally or if is the other way around is a uncertainty just like uncertain is if the market as a whole will go up or down today.


Trade safely........

Thats very important guys.........


One of my kids left a 3D glasses here on my table so I decided to give it a try and ...WOW....man !! The charts look really cool. The macd and stochastic really come alive everybody should try it !

Since I did not trade as usually this week, I was trying to catch up this friday and price moved enough for me to achieve my weekly goal.

I did not make a lot of pips trading the news because the price was choppy, looking back on the smaller time frames I can see that the opportunities were there but trading the 5 or 15 minutes can become a habit, so I'm sort of taking a break from it.



Than came the nice “stabbed price” on the one hour time frame. In the old days we use to call a pin bar formation as “stabbed price” because it looked like if the price direction got stabbed, died and went the other way, thats maybe a lame way of describing it but we did not have the expression pin bar back them.



Anyways the stab on the one hour was a no brainer good for 102 pips and I'm completing another week of stress free trades.



Good weekend to all.

And there we go.........

http://www.upi.com/Business_News/200...3571252251210/

"Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it."
George Santayana

Damn, what kind of dog do we have minding that chicken coop, anyway...?

So...it looks like that everything in the world is pointing up for this pair.....and I keep wondering if we are not up to a big surprise !



If you take a unbiased look at the situation right now, from where we came from, to where we are now I would say that the appreciation of the euro is justified.



This pair was really high and the big drop was caused by fear. Now that fear sort of alleviated, it is normal for things to go back to their fair value. So a valuation of the Euro is justified. So is the valuation to equities, etc.



The problem is that nobody knows if we are already out of the woods or if there are still some big shoes to drop. Anyone still going short this pair is trading the past and the past is untradeable.



The last lower low on this pair was October-28-2008, almoust one year ago. Since this date we only have seeing higher highs and especially higher lows. Yet everybody (including me) somehow is still berish biased on this pair.



Thanks God for technicals ! In my case if I was trading my bias I would be broke by now. It makes me wonder how futile the past seems to be in the trading world. That big drop last year is history, the trade here and now is up, and I keep thinking if the up movement is already engrained enough on peoples minds for the big boys to start driving this thing down again.

My advise is...dont get cot with your pants down

http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1249669144&play=1


Ok...not posting too much latelly because I'm coding like crazy trying to get my little software ready. It is a weird feeling because the last time I coded that much I was in college and since I'm talking to my college teacher over the phone almost daily it surely makes mi mind go back in time.

Now this video made me stop my pet project and come here write something because it is just amazing how some so called professionals can say so much garbage....

Timing the events is tough business so I'm not saying that the market will crash tomorrow but anybody with some brains can see that this rally in equities is completely artificial. People are trying to lift this thing as high as they can so when it falls it will not go below zero, and yet some “pros” out there are shouting “ all the problems are gone”.



I'm riding the E/U bullishness and all the mini rally etc...etc...I would be a idiot if I didn't but I do not believe for even one second that we are not going to retest and even break those lows we have now.



Trade safely folks !

Sometimes I like to go to Fxstreet and take a look at their webnars . Just for fun, to laugh a little about the non sense people preach out there.


Honestly I doubt any of the self proclaimed “pros” there acctualy trade for a living as they say they do.


All of than after “teaching” you how to trade , come up with their commercial about some kind of school, tutoring, money management, etc.


What tha heck...if they know how to trade and know so much to the point of teaching, why they just dont go ahead and TRADE instead of charging a couple hundred bucks per month to teach you what they know.


Does it make sense for you?


Anyways Rob Booker was explaining the new NFA regulation and BLABLABLABLA.....


Well I'm not very familiar with this guy but looking at his picture he looks like a mentally impaired person, like people that you see on the Especial Olympics ( no offense intended ), but he actually gave a decent “vanilla” explanation about the new rules.


Now the guy that works with him...forgot his name, he seems to be the mentally impaired one...never got to hear so much blablabla from a empty head.


Anyways my take on the new rules if you want to know are the follow:


If you hedge you are a looser! If you took a bad entry you are supposed to take your loss, close your position and do it better next time. Opening another position against the one you just did is a illusion, if you got lucky and it worked this time that's what it is..... just LUCK.


The NFA is trying to help you, don't get mad with them, before you send your account over seas, try to think a little and listen to what a guy like, me that is in this business for a while, have to say. Hedging is just like trading events or going to Vegas, it is maybe fun but you will loose your shirt in the end.


If you add to loosing positions you are a looser ! So again dont get mad with the NFA's FIFO rule. They are trying to put some wisdom in your head.


If you have winner positions the FIFO is not a issue. Right? But curiously the people with a bunch of loosing positions are the ones that complain the most about this rule. If you look at their trade sheet it is all RED and they keep “averaging” until they are margin called.


So basically the NFA is trying to end or at least give a hard time to the illusion of the so called “averaging”, which is just another name for adding to loosing positions. Again if the market goes against you you should get out and take your loss not add another position, thats insane!


Well...again thats what I have to say, if you dont believe me now you will ….later.....my account is fed by hedgers and “average-rs” so take a minute and ponder over my words. you will thank me later.

Clever guy! I agree... now if more people thought a bit critically and intelligently about world affairs then the world could be a better place!

Lots of talks about market taking too much risk, experts all over with a less bulish opinion, commercial real state starting to surface in the news, America starting to poke China ( the tire issue) etc...etc..

It is coming folks, you can run but you can't hide!

My take is that we will have a huge down with dollar aprreciation and new lows on equities. Than (to confuse people) as the situarion deteriorates the dollar will start to deteriorate also and will replace the yen as the major funding for a new wave of carry trade as things start to improve.

I'm talking years here ok....not months....trade your system.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/for...-sell-agencies



Looks like that after the FED got cot monetizing the debt trough third parties here in America and some foreign banks they decided to go "foreign retail" just to make it a little harder for people to blow their cover

Ok...... I'm taking a break from the forum world.

My short experience with retail traders definately helped me to get to some conclusions.

I thought people would be interested in have some more constructitive discussion than knowing where E/U would go on the next minute but I guess I was wrong. I'm also having lots of fun re-coding my pet project so no more time to spend on chat rooms

Trade safely folks !!!!