Platypus journal

I would like to use this space to hopefuly attract people smarter than me and have an educated chat about the most important geopolitical/socioeconomic subject "du jour"

I'm also posting my trades and bias and you are welcome to stop by and comment on it if you like.


I'm not very familiar with forums, chats or blogs in general so I hope people will go easy on me. Also my English is not very good but I believe 90% of the time I will be able to express myself in a decent way.

Lately I'm thinking a lot about the FED and how they are handling the credit crisis we are in. I'm also keeping a close eye on the governament and their economic team. It is clear for me that they are working together and up to something.

My bet is that they are trying to attract as many people as they can in long term bonds and inflating the debt as much as they can while the interest is still low and America still have some credit abroad. Than they will start a inflationary process in order to corrode the debt.

Just like a person buried in credit card debt and in a verge of a bankrupcy will spend the rest of the credit still available because it really does not matter anymore.

Off course China and other emerging countries will face a catastrophic scenario but I dont think America will care much about it since Europe and the Asian developed countries will be in better shape and able to fill those spaces created by a colapsed China, India or Brazil

Basicaly I believe the BRIC is getting to big and powerfull especially China and somebody have to do something before this folks start to rule the world. I really think this credit crisis was created with this objective

Today was a no trade for me because the market is showing no direction.

My bias is still berish but I would not be surprise if price goes to 1.42 before heading to the bottom of the channel. Acctually I'm really surprise we did not have any spikes this week, since a plot to prop equities was easy to spot.

I'm pretty sure people will short equities by Friday. Anyways I trade the moment, not the past or the future

The market is looking more in line with the overall fundamental scenario. I guess Forex was just behind the curve this time.

IMHO the steam was released and now I'm watching my indicators looking for a short.

Ok..I'm short E/U (1.41) based on my technicals. On the fundies side of the trade I believe that this equity rally is fake and people will short on friday. If I'm wrong my SL is at 1.4135, depending on the scenario I can bail out before it. I will take profit when I have a signal to go up.

If a move down is confirmed it should be good for 200+ pips so the risk reward is accetable for me.

Ok at this point (30 pips positive) I'm still not phisically moving my SL but any move above 1.4117 will probably void my trade. I don't like draw downs and all my trades, winners or loosers are 100% stress free.

I'm still watching the VIX, futures and bonds and so far so good

I'm out of my trade with +25 pips. The movement is not developing the way I expected so I'm out. My bias is still the same but I do have to protect my capital. Now i should wait and see if a re-entry or something else will emerge.

I wish a good trade to all

I remember april 2007. I was sitting right here where I am now trading when I heard on bloomberg about the "New Century" bankruptcy.

By the time I thought that the market was set up to crash like in the next days or so. Well it did not happened right the way, but who was smart enough to understand the fragility of the times jumped ship from the real state in the next month or so and protected his money.

Today I saw at reuters the news about MGIC and I'm just wondering if we are not in the same situation as when New Century went bust. If we start now to see problems all over the inssurance side of the business we can prepare our shorts and go to the beach of parity sooner than later.

If the Mrs Meredith stuff wasn't enough the media plot to prop the market went to the point of miscoting Dr Doom. I guess some big fish got cot in the wrong side of the market and needed a little help to get out.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/31947275

Short again same price as yesterday 1.41. The only difference today is the size of my lots. This is more of a fundamental trade since i don't really have any signal from my system so i have to scale down on my lot sizes.

IMHO equities are away oversold and this kind of scenario in a friday usually plays well....lets see SL @ 1.4162.

Ok.... my position once was +40 pips now as I'm writing it is -24. The correction on equities that I was waiting did not happened today, and I may carry this trade over the weekend because it is such a small position that in terms of money it does not matter.

I'm trading forex for a while and I have quite a few notebooks filled with my journals where I describe each trade and all info that I can write about it from open to close. A few weeks ago I took some time off and went through most of my trades during those years and things just popped before my eyes.

First there was a time ( my fisrt years) when despite the fact that I was winning up to 90% of the time I was still loosing money. I found it pretty curious.

Later on, when I get to learn better how things are supposed to be in this game, I started to write down about how smooth or complicated a trade will go, and I found that my trades based on technicals will go a lot better than the ones base in a bias. My bias off course comes from CNBC, BLOOMBERG and other places on the internet. And I remember that I use to be glued to CNBC 16 to 18 hour a day and even sleep with the tv on trying to sub-conciously get some insight . Well despite all my efforts I could not trade succesfuly during this time either.

Today I trade almost 100% technical and I could not be happier. I still love to discuss fundamentals, but I do it the same way I discuss football or politics. I still watch CNBC and BLOOMBERG but more for enterteinment. Kundlow and all their self proclaimed experts out there serve me more for a big laugh than for a source of information.

Ok..as I'm finishing writing this I see that my "fundamental" trade came to break even again and since it seems to not be going anywhere I'm gonna close it and lets see what next week will bring to all of us.

Good weekend to all !

I just finished watching some videos from CNBC, BLOOMBERG, CNN etc and it is just unreal how these folks can teach somebody how to lie straight face.

I like Cramer because he is very entertaining, what a funny guy !

Kudlow is not that funny but he also make me laught. I find fascinating how he and his clowns (especially Jerry Bowier) can be so wrong for the last 2 years and still have some money in their bank account. I guess they dont trade their calls...thats the only explanation I can come up with..

I love to watch Erin Burnett and Trich ( forgot her last name) because they are cute, I just mute my TV and their angels face are really enjoiable.

I use to watch Bloomberg a lot, but since they only have ugly girls and their guys are not funny sometimes I even forgot they exist.

CNN is very good for the latest Michael Jackson's news.

Well...thats what those channels means for me "ENTERTAINMENT" thats it.

I'm trying to start to get a feel of the market as I do every sunday evening recap from last week, forecast to the next, etc and I would like to live here some of my recent conclusions.

My system is still far from giving me a signal so technically I should stay at the sidelines

If I decide to open a "fundamental" trade as I like to call it I allways do with ridiculous small lot sizes ( this is more of a pass time than acctually trading)

Despite my fundamental bias for a short, it could take a while before it happens. The reason is:

Futures are obviously not ready yet but what is delaying the correction from this rally even more is the VIX.

Bonds are favoring a short but still not to the point where the FED will step and poke the market

This are the moments that makes me so thankfull for technicals. Despite not having a clear definition about where the big sharks are going I know that when the moment is right I will know it.

Time to tune in CNBC for some entertainment

I would like to see the Dow mini around -70 to start something more serious but what bothers me is the VIX that is still relativelly low.

Well...just dont fight the trend if it goes up trade it but with caution...the down turn could be nasty.

My indicators are flat no trade for me at the moment.

why the bear was not a fake?

Well...I find it hard to believe that everything is over and from now on all will be remembered as just a "bad dream". I dont have time to write everithing I believe here right now but just look how the ALT-A and the so called PRIME is starting to default, the banks are keeping people in foreclosed houses just so they dont have to write it down in their books...etc...etc

but in bear markets we do have rallies

thanks for sharing...

one friend asked me whether citi will be back to 50$ if all things get back?

I'm an american citizen and I have all my kids born here. I'm not a antiamerican at all but listen to me my friend...

The freaking bankers from this country and Europe will screw China BIG TIME just like they did in the past with a lot of countries.

They are stuffing the BRIC with dollars (american debt) than they will start a inflationary process that will corrode this debt in no time. Trillions will not worth pennyes

you mean inflat the bonds but not dollar?
but how can inflat the bonds alone?

They are inflating the debt as much as they can because they know the bubble will burst anytime. When you have debt in a certain corrency and high or hyper inflation in the same corrency the debt is corroded.

Deflation makes debt hard to pay inflation make it easy.