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  • #142,081
  • Sep 13, 2009 6:33am Sep 13, 2009 6:33am
Quoting stevefx
From what I've read, only superficial changes have taken place on Wall Street concerning risk management and use of exotic derivatives among big players. The fiscal regulations discussed after the economic collapse last year have mainly faded into the blue, and too big to fail remains as the abhorent insurance policy of big banks.
Indeed, Goldman is still spending huge amounts on bonuses, the market in exotic derivatives is more lively then before, the FED is flooding the market with cheap money and is planning to keep on doing so for a long time -> business as usual, and because the sense of urgency is now gone nothing will change.

I believe that this crisis was so bad because after the dot-com one the FED kept money too cheap for too long. They'll do the same now, so the next crisis will be even worse. In my humble opinion the central banks did indeed need to intervene to prevent collapse, but should quickly stop this and allow the economy to cool down at a manageable pace.
  • #142,082
  • Sep 13, 2009 6:48am Sep 13, 2009 6:48am
Quoting Chicky
Steve, you may like to check down move around August 7, 8 or 9, 2008 on daily chart. It broke 1.5000 to the south around these days. This and pa movement after this would have washed me out along with my method if I was in a trade. One guy turned his $2,750 to over $34,000 in this month (I earlier posted his account statement a couple of times). This level is bothering me for last several months. I read the market tape in a way that may or may not meet the standards. Based on this "tape reading", I think there is a gap waiting to be filled at...
Thanks Chicky, I located the gap you pointed to. It is indeed an interesting feature on my charts as well, as it shows that price will approach within a very close level and back off, then return and break through six weeks later. Breaking through on the first approach would actually drive my charts into a small violation. Things that make you hmmm..
  • #142,083
  • Sep 13, 2009 7:04am Sep 13, 2009 7:04am
Quoting The Fool
Well we ain't most people, though, right Steve-O?

Good Luck this week.
Yeah, at least we're not turning our portfolio over to some broker who takes 2% to lose 40%. Good luck to you this week also. Should be fun.
  • #142,084
  • Sep 13, 2009 7:20am Sep 13, 2009 7:20am
Quoting Chicky
Steve, you may like to check down move around August 7, 8 or 9, 2008 on daily chart. It broke 1.5000 to the south around these days. This and pa movement after this would have washed me out along with my method if I was in a trade. One guy turned his $2,750 to over $34,000 in this month (I earlier posted his account statement a couple of times). This level is bothering me for last several months. I read the market tape in a way that may or may not meet the standards. Based on this "tape reading", I think there is a gap waiting to be filled at...


Ok Chicky, I'm interested.
At first seeing "gap" in your post, I did what I always do with gap posts and dismissed it. However I couldn't remember an opening gap left on the chart anywhere, so I looked and sure enough there wasn't.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Now given the fact that I know your not stupid, I started looking for what you could mean. I found what some could call virgin ground (not having been touched by a retrace). Are you working on some sort of theory concerning the Bankers books needing to total net neutral?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #142,085
  • Edited 8:35am Sep 13, 2009 8:00am | Edited 8:35am
Quoting knuckledrag
Ok Chicky, I'm interested.
At first seeing "gap" in your post, I did what I always do with gap posts and dismissed it. However I couldn't remember an opening gap left on the chart anywhere, so I looked and sure enough there wasn't.
Attachment
Now given the fact that I know your not stupid, I started looking for what you could mean. I found what some could call virgin ground (not having been touched by a retrace). Are you working on some sort of theory concerning the Bankers books needing to total net neutral?
Attachment ...
Hi Knuck,

As I mentioned ... my own way of tape reading that may not be recognized tape reading method (trading is no exact science anyway).

Yes, as you termed it Virgin Grounds. Your blue strip is my Gap. The only issue is that a very strong economic event created that "blue strip". Do we have equally strong economic reason to fill it with the same level of force? if not, it MAY get filled but over few weeks and probably in several attempts.

Now something about the gaps in my terminology which is definitely miles from any standard weekend gap concept. I will change this term probably to "Canyon"

1. Gap to me is the difference between a) highest point of a range, and b) lowest point of any ranges above that range. PERIOD.

2. Price tends to fill these gaps. Smaller the time frame, fewer and narrower the gaps.

3. As we move to bigger time frames, we find bigger but fewer ranges and therefore wider gaps. (I do not look for these gaps on bigger time frames with a microscope).

4. If we move to time frames above daily, we see "Canyons" which we should leave for our grandchildren to fill.

The concept is based on my little research that most ranges are connected. If we draw a line between two ranges, in most cases this fine (or a broader) line touches both ranges. Your blue strip in the chart is more than a line, hence a gap according to my definition.

Kindly note that this is only one of the 20 indicators I use in deciding entries and exits and therefore place 100/20 = 5% reliance on this one.

Am I smart? Many would say NO. That means I am still a stupid person but have tried to bring my stupidity level to 5% which I can live with.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #142,086
  • Sep 13, 2009 8:03am Sep 13, 2009 8:03am
Quoting Tiger21
[font=Calibri][size=3]EUR / USD – Ride the momentum....
Cut credit too soon?? Their is no credit where it matters. These low rates are benefiting ONLY THE BANKS.
  • #142,087
  • Sep 13, 2009 8:05am Sep 13, 2009 8:05am
Quoting trading801
btw why is sept/oct a prime time for stocks to tank ? i heard about it but why?
The most common reason is because Fund Managers usually wrap up their portfolios by the end of the 3rd quarter.
  • #142,088
  • Sep 13, 2009 8:08am Sep 13, 2009 8:08am
A new kind of Gap talk this weekend, I see. One rule about gaps is that the further you get from them in time, the less likely they get filled. IE. an intraday gap is likely to get filled, while a gap from a year ago carries little weight.

Good luck this afternoon...
  • #142,089
  • Sep 13, 2009 8:34am Sep 13, 2009 8:34am
Quoting Chicky
Hi Knuck,

As I mentioned ... my own way of tape reading that may not be recognized tape reading method (trading is no exact science anyway).

Yes, as you termed it Virgin Grounds. Your blue strip is my Gap. The only issue is that a very strong economic event created that "blue strip". Do we have equally strong economic reason to fill it with the same level of force? if not, it MAY get filled but over few weeks and probably in several attempts.

Now something about the gaps in my terminology which is definitely miles from any standard weekend...


Interesting and worth watching.

How do I get to only 5% stupidity
If you ask my wife I'm sure I'd be way over 50%.
If you ask the kids---90-95% stupidity easy.
  • #142,090
  • Sep 13, 2009 8:48am Sep 13, 2009 8:48am
Quoting TIckerShuffl
The most common reason is because Fund Managers usually wrap up their portfolios by the end of the 3rd quarter.

you mean like they sell their holdings?
  • #142,091
  • Sep 13, 2009 10:07am Sep 13, 2009 10:07am
don't know if oil people are smart or not. but in Texas and Louisiana many of the major oil companies are cutting back (lay offs). its kinda unusual with oil inching up since the bottom (last year). these lay-offs started happening with oil above 60pb. i cant imagine them laying off thinking it was going to go back to 75 + pb.. right or wrong i think the economy is still fragile. and oil above 75 + will cap markets although nobody's knows the magic price pb it is.

moves have to be gradual..as to not shock the markets. each and everything china or anyone else sells has oil included in price no matter what it is. no matter if its plastic or is shipped oil is in the equation. so as economy gets betters it pressures oil price. and as oil price is pressured economy is pressured. if pressured to much and too fast markets will fall fast. if pressured gradual markets may absorb price and as inflation increases. this could increase fed rates. that will hurt housing. not pretty either way. inflation or housing? this is far from over small business is next. they will need credit as their books profits shrink. nobody will give a then credit as ballon loans mature. they will be out of business.

since 147pb oil fed has printed money. so all your charts are off if you dilute the new money with older money in system since printing started. maybe today's 70pb oil is equal to last years 50pb oil (before printing). i don't know the ratio..and some may look at things this way. and many expect commodities to go up in step with new money. the kicker to me is the consumer is the one that floats the economy and the consumer has less money even after dilution then he had before dilution. he also has less credit. he also is spending the money he has on less frills..after the smoke clears consumer will be leaner and meaner...add in unemployment and you get less consumers....second to housing they all have to eat. in u.s. we don't import a lot of staples. we grow what we eat mostly.

in 1929 oil was less important then it is today. today we got a whole different economy. this is a house of cards.. and we have never been here before. nobody knows the future. this could still go either way. big money in Texas are in protective mode. they lost power and the Saudis are happy with 75pb oil as fool said.

yes the printing money makes commodity prices rise.. in turn weakens usd.
but then you get into that supply and demand thingy. that demand decreases in a bad economy..the one that trumps everything..

we could go either way or both.. no such thing as a sure thing..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #142,092
  • Sep 13, 2009 11:05am Sep 13, 2009 11:05am
Quoting gatorinla
we could go either way or both.. no such thing as a sure thing..
Good post, gator. Didn't even mention nutz once....we so proud.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #142,093
  • Sep 13, 2009 11:25am Sep 13, 2009 11:25am
Quoting gatorinla
don't know if oil people are smart or not. but in Texas and Louisiana many of the major oil companies are cutting back (lay offs). its kinda unusual with oil inching up since the bottom (last year). these lay-offs started happening with oil above 60pb. i cant imagine them laying off thinking it was going to go back to 75 + pb.. right or wrong i think the economy is still fragile. and oil above 75 + will ............................................................................................
we could go either way or both.. no such thing as...
Acctualy gator I think the "high price/lay offs" situation makes sense if you consider a "stagflation" scenario, where demand diminishes but prices still manage to go up because of dollar weakness. A situation like that cant go forever because eventualy the laws of supply demand will catch up and price will stop rising waiting for demand or go down to meet demand. But your account can easely go south in this case...just remember that the market can stay insane longer than you can stay solvent
  • #142,094
  • Sep 13, 2009 12:32pm Sep 13, 2009 12:32pm
we could go either way or both.. no such thing as a sure thing..[/quote]

I wonder how the big banks and large forex investors make their forex moves!
If there is no sure thing (i.e. random movement), it means that these guys must loose huge amounts of money since they invest millions or even billions of dollars in the forex market.

Can anyone shed some light here?
  • #142,095
  • Sep 13, 2009 12:40pm Sep 13, 2009 12:40pm
Quoting ashlee_17
we could go either way or both.. no such thing as a sure thing..
I wonder how the big banks and large forex investors make their forex moves!
If there is no sure thing (i.e. random movement), it means that these guys must loose huge amounts of money since they invest millions or even billions of dollars in the forex market.

Can anyone shed some light here?[/quote]
FX concepts the worlds largest forex hedguefund is down 5% for forex trading for this year. So yeah there is no sure thing. One can use good money management, a blend of the fundamental and techincal analysis, and good diversified portfolio. However, forex trading is still not a sure thing.
  • #142,096
  • Sep 13, 2009 12:50pm Sep 13, 2009 12:50pm
Quoting Maxsmart
I wonder how the big banks and large forex investors make their forex moves!
If there is no sure thing (i.e. random movement), it means that these guys must loose huge amounts of money since they invest millions or even billions of dollars in the forex market.

Can anyone shed some light here?
FX concepts the worlds largest forex hedguefund is down 5% for forex trading for this year. So yeah there is no sure thing. One can use good money management, a blend of the fundamental and techincal analysis, and good diversified portfolio. However, forex trading is still not a sure thing.[/quote]

5% is an amazingly small percentage of money to lose in a randomly moving market... your statement further confirms that forex is a sure thing and is predominontely controlled by governments and the big guys.
  • #142,097
  • Sep 13, 2009 1:21pm Sep 13, 2009 1:21pm
Quoting ashlee_17
FX concepts the worlds largest forex hedguefund is down 5% for forex trading for this year. So yeah there is no sure thing. One can use good money management, a blend of the fundamental and techincal analysis, and good diversified portfolio. However, forex trading is still not a sure thing.
5% is an amazingly small percentage of money to lose in a randomly moving market... your statement further confirms that forex is a sure thing and is predominontely controlled by governments and the big guys.[/quote]
Forex is not a randomly moving market. Of course it is controlled by governments and "big guys" lol(by that I assume you mean interbank fx) Although there is much random movement in the very short term. However, 5% is not a small percentage. When you are posting a loss for an entire year and not a gain. You do have to pay people you know. If forex was a sure thing you would never have a losing trade. I remember reading on here when you said that the EUR/USD was heading onward towards 1.47 when it touched 1.4450. You told people to to get out of their shorts and wouldnt go back down for a few months. Yet, the very next day it went all the down to 1.42. Giving even the people who had shorts at 1.4370 a $1,700 profit. You can be right most of the time but it's not a "sure thing."
  • #142,098
  • Sep 13, 2009 2:08pm Sep 13, 2009 2:08pm
Continuing talking about the USD...
In fact the USD is the main currency and it is the basic knowledge needed to trade even cross pairs .
Anyhow, where and what s happening?
Even though some positive releases are supposed to influence the currency positively, I believe it is not enough to reverse the bearish trend, investors may be waiting for key data to change reverse the trend!
suggestions?
  • #142,099
  • Sep 13, 2009 2:17pm Sep 13, 2009 2:17pm
Just seeing heiken Ashi charts , doji in h4 & may be sell off but not in daily & upper tf.Planning using HA this week trading alone.
fontu
Attached Images
Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #142,100
  • Sep 13, 2009 2:33pm Sep 13, 2009 2:33pm
Quoting fontu
Just seeing heiken Ashi charts , doji in h4 & may be sell off but not in daily & upper tf.Planning using HA this week trading alone.
fontu
just when i thought you were beginning to see the light
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