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  • #142,061
  • Sep 13, 2009 3:43am Sep 13, 2009 3:43am
EUR / USD – Ride the momentum. EUR / USD will go to $1.50 as investors seek additional risk and sell lower yielding currencies in favor of higher yielding currencies. From the $1.45 point to $1.50, there is a lot of money to be made in the next month or two and there is a lot of trading history in this range from 11/08 to 3/09 and 8/09 to 9/09. $1.50 will be the key psychological barrier in the uptrend, but at this point $1.45 should provide key support levels. In general the dollar is declining against all the major currencies because the dollar is the cheapest funding currency and given how liquid it is, it is easy to trade against foreign markets. In addition, the Fed has been maintaining its commitment to a low interest policy whereby rates will not be raised until they are certain the US economy is coming out of the recession in a good shape. Bernanke is well aware of the risks of a double dip recession and doesn’t want to cut credit too soon so as to cause the US economy to contract again at the onset of it righting itself.
  • #142,062
  • Sep 13, 2009 4:03am Sep 13, 2009 4:03am
however on the other hand,

the increased take up and value in equities does suggest risk appetite increasing.. perhaps not all but partly the value of usd has something to do with this..
  • #142,063
  • Sep 13, 2009 4:08am Sep 13, 2009 4:08am
Quoting trading801
however on the other hand,

the increased take up and value in equities does suggest risk appetite increasing.. perhaps not all but partly the value of usd has something to do with this..
We've come 43% in the DJIA since the March lows w/o a serious correction. We're overdue & it's not a matter of if, only when? Historically, Sept/Oct is prime time for such a move. I am ambivalent: I am still holding stocks bought years ago & some are going green and they are getting sold when they do. But I can make money in fx either way.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #142,064
  • Edited 4:26am Sep 13, 2009 4:12am | Edited 4:26am
Quoting stevefx
For a weekly roundup I'm just going to give my thoughts on the current situation, no fancy charts.

Euro is caught in a tension between moving immediately to 4700-4750 or going into some kind of substantial correction first. 4700-4750 is in the cards weather or not a correction comes first.

Late in the week I was thinking it was looking more likely to go straight to it. Now after more careful thinking I'm favoring a correction. To me its a question of profitability.

Going straight to 4700-4750-there's 150 points overhead through which deep...
Just out of curiosity, You a Turtle? Liked your analysis and also the way it is presented.

Saul Marc
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #142,065
  • Sep 13, 2009 4:21am Sep 13, 2009 4:21am
Quoting The Fool
"It is a Dollar Story

..... (and of course a Fool is) I'd say .43XX has to be in the cards for the coming week...
  • #142,066
  • Sep 13, 2009 4:26am Sep 13, 2009 4:26am
Quoting The Fool
We've come 43% in the DJIA since the March lows w/o a serious correction. We're overdue & it's not a matter of if, only when? Historically, Sept/Oct is prime time for such a move. I am ambivalent: I am still holding stocks bought years ago & some are going green and they are getting sold when they do. But I can make money in fx either way.

btw why is sept/oct a prime time for stocks to tank ? i heard about it but why?
  • #142,067
  • Sep 13, 2009 4:28am Sep 13, 2009 4:28am
Atlast....


Sweet mercy is nobility's true badge. (W.S.)

Teach me to feel another's woe, To hide the fault I see: That mercy I to others show, That mercy show to me. (Pope)
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #142,068
  • Sep 13, 2009 4:29am Sep 13, 2009 4:29am
Quoting trading801
btw why is sept/oct a prime time for stocks to tank ? i heard about it but why?
The more schooled amongst us may have a clue about this - I do not.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #142,069
  • Sep 13, 2009 4:47am Sep 13, 2009 4:47am
Quoting Chicky
Just out of curiosity, You a Turtle? Liked your analysis and also the way it is presented.

Saul Marc
Hi Chicky, thanks for your comment. No I'm not a turtle in the sense that I'm an officianado of the turtle system-I have a basic idea of what its about. But your insight is correct to the extent that my trading methods are changing to longer term strategies. Its just easier to isolate basic price levels that are likely tops or bottoms for longer term trends. Easier than dealing with the short term whipsaws and tricky minutia of the short term market. My circle analysis methods have helped me a lot in this regard. So maybe I'll be making a couple of trades a week, sometimes less. It depends on the window entries I pick up from my circle charts.
I'll be sure to post the trades.

No more forcing trades-its all "if, then"-opportunist like yourself. How have you been?
  • #142,070
  • Sep 13, 2009 5:00am Sep 13, 2009 5:00am
Quoting trading801
btw why is sept/oct a prime time for stocks to tank ? i heard about it but why?
I wish I had paid attention several years ago, when my big position hit the low (on my selling BTW) and took me out big time, at that time.

Think about it. End of quarter the funds want to see their investments look excellent on paper, to attract more investors. The managers are looking forward to their big bonuses, they don't want the market to plunge in december, better it takes a dive in September/October to give time to recover.
Conjecture here.

I posted an article last month showing where all the money for the stock rally was coming from. If you took heed you wouldn't have shorted last month expecting a trend change. Hedge funds made an outsize bet in the second quarter. Their contribution reached an all time high. "increased ownership in financial stocks by 55 percent, to $70 billion, compared with the previous quarter."
I always say go with the big boys, especially if you're long term. It takes a little more than basic chart reading.
Big boys must take profit, make sure you're not picking tops and bottoms without confirmatory signals.
  • #142,071
  • Edited 5:41am Sep 13, 2009 5:23am | Edited 5:41am
Quoting stevefx
Hi Chicky, thanks for your comment. No I'm not a turtle in the sense that I'm an officianado of the turtle system-I have a basic idea of what its about. But your insight is correct to the extent that my trading methods are changing to longer term strategies. Its just easier to isolate basic price levels that are likely tops or bottoms for longer term trends. Easier than dealing with the short term whipsaws and tricky minutia of the short term market. My circle analysis methods have helped me a lot in this regard. So maybe I'll be making a couple...
Steve, more I read your posts more I appreciate your approach. I visited your site today and was glad to see your progress also one excellent comment.

My trades over last one year are continuously increasing their time span. Last couple of trades concluded in about two weeks. Again the time leg between closing a trade and opening a new one has stretched from few hours to few days now. I wish I could trade bigger timeframes. I like to deal through partners that have highest standing in the market and therefore cannot reduce number and value of lots to trade on such timeframes with my limited capital. Cannot stretch my risk either - in a dead-end situation. One option is to open a trade and let it run for months, but market volatility in these economic times does not allow taking a "time risk" i.e. wait months for a break-even or get stopped out for pennies. Therefore will continue gambling on short term time frames until a solution is found.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #142,072
  • Sep 13, 2009 5:25am Sep 13, 2009 5:25am
Quoting The Fool
The more schooled amongst us may have a clue about this - I do not.
Hi Fool. I just wanted to thank you for your vote of confidence. If it means anything-these predictive charts which I have created, and which have held up really well over the last three months-do show that after peaking out at 4700-we will be entering a corrective wave. The low in this wave has a range of 4185-4300, but 4250-4300 looks a lot more likely. Its corrective, but ultimately preparatory for the next leg up to 1.5000. This whole architecture is built for slow climbing. What the top will be I can not say, but 1.58-1.6 wouldn't shock me. But it won't last. Lets just hope it doesn't end in another world wide trauma such as 2008.
  • #142,073
  • Sep 13, 2009 5:42am Sep 13, 2009 5:42am
Quoting Chicky
Steve, more I read your posts more I appreciate your approach. I visited your site today and was glad to see your progress also one excellent comment.

My trades over last one year are continuously increasing their time span. Last couple of trades concluded in about two weeks. Again the time leg between closing a trade and opening a new one has stretched from few hours to few days now. I wish I could trade bigger timeframes. I like to deal through partners that have highest standing in the market and therefore cannot reduce number and value of...
I understand your problems. Much hinges on the accuracy of my own charts. There have been no serious violations yet, but tomorrow could be a different story. I'm playing small based on what I've done, and trying to win big over 6 months. This rally will go bust sooner or later and my charts will no longer apply, though perhaps I can re-analyse then. If it fails, I have lost nothing life changing, and have gained something valuable for myself in any case. Integrity in the methods is the most important aspect-something to feel good about. Anyway, we'll see how it goes-just an adventure.
  • #142,074
  • Sep 13, 2009 5:53am Sep 13, 2009 5:53am
Quoting stevefx
Hi Fool. I just wanted to thank you for your vote of confidence. If it means anything-these predictive charts which I have created, and which have held up really well over the last three months-do show that after peaking out at 4700-we will be entering a corrective wave. The low in this wave has a range of 4185-4300, but 4250-4300 looks a lot more likely. Its corrective, but ultimately preparatory for the next leg up to 1.5000. This whole architecture is built for slow climbing. What the top will be I can not say, but 1.58-1.6 wouldn't shock me....
You're welcome.

The E/U has spent very little time above 1.45 in its history and that is not an accident. Some shit gets said by the IMF or the UN (gimme a break) about hey lets gin up a new reserve currency & the dollar tanks but there's nothing extant to take its place & there won't be anytime soon. Why is there such a healthy demand for US Treasuries if the dollar is such a dog? And the oil ministers come out last week smiling & saying, oh yeah we cool with $75/bbl, no prob - well that's cause they lucky to get that and they won't be getting that for long. The Fed has been shoveling money as fast as it can shovel to build a floor under the economy but its just a paper floor in a house of cards until the real housing market takes off again and I stopped holding my breath on that one a while ago. So, what, the stock market will tank decoupled from the almighty dollar & what will be the new safe haven? The euro? Please. Gold? Not enough physical gold to go around unless you want to talk about $5,000/oz. Please. The more things change the more they stay the same. The dollar is not dead.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #142,075
  • Sep 13, 2009 6:01am Sep 13, 2009 6:01am
The Destruction of the US Empire

Short article for those who have been away last week or struggling to see some sense, a recap of last week's main movements, explaining gold, dollar, bonds, china in context of US. Again, short article, though a bit overdramatic.

"We would name the period between the fall of the Berlin Wall and the fall of Lehman Bros – a period of only 19 years – as the peak of US power and wealth. Of course, Americans were dreaming during those years. "
http://news.goldseek.com/DailyReckoning/1252821900.php

thought I'd past some other excerpts:

"But the feds continue their efforts to sabotage the correction and destroy the empire. They have already blown-up the budget – with $9 trillion in deficits expected over the next 10 years. Now, they’re working on the dollar."

"Stock market investors seem to be looking forward to another big bull market. But with the economy deteriorating, they are probably just dreaming, too. Median household income fell 3.6% over the last 12 months. Of course, that’s just what you’d expect in a correction. But it’s not what the feds were hoping for. So, they’re pulling out all the stops to try to turn it around. Most important, they’re pulling out the stop that keeps the dollar from rolling down the hill."
  • #142,076
  • Sep 13, 2009 6:08am Sep 13, 2009 6:08am
Quoting stevefx
I understand your problems. Much hinges on the accuracy of my own charts. There have been no serious violations yet, but tomorrow could be a different story. I'm playing small based on what I've done, and trying to win big over 6 months. This rally will go bust sooner or later and my charts will no longer apply, though perhaps I can re-analyse then. If it fails, I have lost nothing life changing, and have gained something valuable for myself in any case. Integrity in the methods is the most important aspect-something to feel good about. Anyway,...
Steve, you may like to check down move around August 7, 8 or 9, 2008 on daily chart. It broke 1.5000 to the south around these days. This and pa movement after this would have washed me out along with my method if I was in a trade. One guy turned his $2,750 to over $34,000 in this month (I earlier posted his account statement a couple of times). This level is bothering me for last several months. I read the market tape in a way that may or may not meet the standards. Based on this "tape reading", I think there is a gap waiting to be filled at 1.5000. I never expected pa to come back to this level so soon i.e. in about a year. That move occured when everybody got the news of housing bubble and official start of this recession. I would be very careful around this level. I originally thought this point was an exception (i.e. this gap would remain unfilled) in the recent history of this pair, but market is determined to prove me wrong, and I think it will by filling this gap.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #142,077
  • Sep 13, 2009 6:09am Sep 13, 2009 6:09am
Here's a more measured view.

http://www.reuters.com/article/GCA-E...58A5AL20090912

Maybe these extraordinary conditions that we have been through over the last year will lead to extraordinary market characteristics as real recovery ensues, and the financial markets will lead the way. There's a whole lot of liquidity out there that's been on the sidelines for a long time, dead money, so maybe the stock rally will keep rolling, T-bills will get bid up, a freakin feeding frenzy.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #142,078
  • Sep 13, 2009 6:19am Sep 13, 2009 6:19am
Quoting The Fool
You're welcome.

The E/U has spent very little time above 1.45 in its history and that is not an accident. Some shit gets said by the IMF or the UN (gimme a break) about hey lets gin up a new reserve currency & the dollar tanks but there's nothing extant to take its place & there won't be anytime soon. Why is there such a healthy demand for US Treasuries if the dollar is such a dog? And the oil ministers come out last week smiling & saying, oh yeah we cool with $75/bbl, no prob - well that's cause they lucky to get that and they won't be getting...
I can't argue with you based on any deep knowledge of macro-economics, though I agree that what is being built is indeed a house of cards. I'm just reporting the results of my charts.

From what I've read, only superficial changes have taken place on Wall Street concerning risk management and use of exotic derivatives among big players. The fiscal regulations discussed after the economic collapse last year have mainly faded into the blue, and too big to fail remains as the abhorent insurance policy of big banks. The recovery is fiction, and the risk aversion which drives the value of the Euro higher in one way or another just represents a transfer of wealth from the middle class to the super wealthy. I'm not among those who think that the dollar will be displaced as the world's reserve currency. I just think the idea is almost irrelevant to the deeper motives which are driving its price down. It will return to its former strength over time, its just that when it does most people will have a lot less of them.
  • #142,079
  • Sep 13, 2009 6:27am Sep 13, 2009 6:27am
less than 12 hours away to opening.. i am really very curious if 1.4620 will be broken hmmmmm
  • #142,080
  • Sep 13, 2009 6:28am Sep 13, 2009 6:28am
Quoting stevefx
... It will return to its former strength over time, its just that when it does most people will have a lot less of them.
Well we ain't most people, though, right Steve-O?

Good Luck this week.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
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