EURUSD

oh btw, i just finished an article on how the gold is with regards to us dollar..

do take a look if it pleases u.. thanks !

http://www.thegeekknows.com/2009/09/...us-dollar.html

Just seeing how gold is correlating to eu now & pulling it up.oil just opposite ,not match.
on Gold chart price break ultimate resistant level & even crossed middle minor sr successfully,though some retracement still over the midline . as per properties of this area it should stay over the ultimate resistant& try overshoot 1015$ UP , or can back again to UR for another try & will be difficult to come down so easily.

so eu to set fly up more chance than to fall in the ground? Not understand if the world really ready to dump the money to gold .
fontu

if we go above 4640 I will be long TP 4720 and maybe more ... if we stay under 4620 I will be short TP 43/42 but in any cases with a tight SL because I think all is possible now. The trend still bullish but indi give bearish informations ... Good time for scalpers ... Maybe it's better don't think too much about it and try go with "the move"
Nice week end to you & to everybody of this thread.

Hi guys,

Do someone of you have a link where I can see/read what Geithner said yesterday??

Thanks.

For a weekly roundup I'm just going to give my thoughts on the current situation, no fancy charts.

Euro is caught in a tension between moving immediately to 4700-4750 or going into some kind of substantial correction first. 4700-4750 is in the cards weather or not a correction comes first.

Late in the week I was thinking it was looking more likely to go straight to it. Now after more careful thinking I'm favoring a correction. To me its a question of profitability.

Going straight to 4700-4750-there's 150 points overhead through which deep money could extend their long profits. After that would come a slow trending sell-off-back to business as usual.

Or, correcting first, there's 180 points down to the 50% fibo, and/or 230 points to 62%. Add to that another 300-350 points back up to 4700. Thats 500 points profit by correcting versus 150 points by not. There has been plenty of time at the top for switching longs to shorts.

I have no crystal ball, but if you put a gun to my head at this point I'd say yeah, they're gonna dump it, then pump it. I refer you to the dump and pump which ensued with the sell off of July 28th/29th. The overall structure would look a lot like that.

I'm not taking a position for the short, though. I'd rather buy the correction if it should get down to 4408. It could very well go lower to 4350-thats an add to longs situation.

Otherwise if it just shoots straight up, sell from 4715-4750. In any case, my trading plan is to stay out until the market shows it hand and then react.

Peace, good luck in the week ahead.

Wouldn't be surprised to see Obama's tariff on Chinese tires start the free-fall in stocks

What do you mean? Chinese put tariff's and export taxes on everything, their stocks are doing fine. The commodity boom of 2008 may have bee directly correlated to chinese export taxes to keep exports of grains and steel and other goods down to create false shortages. These guys don't play fair, and we sit around like douchebags clinging to ideals that cost us everything.

Tariffs have never been good for U.S. stocks, and this could be the spark igniting retaliation, i.e. a trade war. I'm not a prophet, but Smoot-Hartley is always in the back of my mind, and we are entering a time period that is historically bad for stocks. Just look at China's reaction to this tariff - it should be cause for concern.

can explain what you mean by time period historically bad for stocks? thanks

I've posted my weekly views on my blog.

Weekly TF: Strongly overbought (RSI above 78), last seen when the Euro was above 1.58.

Of the last 6 trading days, 5 were up days, with 1 down day (Fri spinning top). Will be look for short entry near 1.47, or a bearish engulfing outside bar on the 1 hr timeframe.

well theres a high of 1.4719 ish approaching !

September has been the worst month for stocks over the last 100 years. Of the 15 largest point declines in the Dow, 12 have come in Sept-November. Also, Autumn of the 9th year of the decade has seen major sell-offs. Not saying it will happen, but history teaches us.

you want to make this a true 'global' market place... which is horseshit anyway... then level the playing field.

m

I want this to be a global marketplace...so long as it suits my needs.

lol

lol

A very tough week. Although the signs are there that the EUR USD might be going bearish I dont trust it for a short, thinking about long entries at either:

1.4525
1.4460

Anyone else thinking similar?

HarrY

If it come down to those levels specially the lower one I will start building buy,my max price low is 1.4446 (possible wave iv of (3) of 5th impulse ) but it usualy down halfway before bull & so any 2 # can stimulate buy.
fontu

"It is a Dollar Story

Although some people may have credited the sell-off in the U.S. dollar to the improvement in risk appetite, we believe that it has been a story about the dollar and not risk because of the corresponding weakness in USD/JPY. In the coming week, there are a number of U.S. economic releases that will test the momentum in the currency market. This includes retail sales, current account, the Treasury International Capital (TIC) flow report, inflation, manufacturing and housing market numbers. Talk of reserve diversification triggered the post Labor Day sell-off in the U.S. dollar and therefore traders will be looking at the TIC data to shed more light on whether central banks have really started to sell dollars. Comments by David Dollar, a member of the U.S. Treasury suggests that the U.S. has no major issues with Chinese reserve diversification as long as it happens gradually. He said that given China’s huge amount of reserves, it is natural to diversify the assets that the reserves are put into. It is estimated that currently 70 percent of China’s reserves are in U.S. dollars. Meanwhile the current account balance will raise the issue of the twin deficits while the manufacturing and housing market reports will provide more information on whether or not the pace of improvement in the U.S. economy is waning. Yet the single most important economic release next week will be retail sales on Tuesday. The improvements in the labor market and consumer confidence mean nothing if it does not translate into stronger consumer spending. Even though we believe that back to school sales have helped retailers, the forecasts call for a 1.7 percent rise in sales which may be overly optimistic. Also, as the dollar continues to fall, it will draw the attention of central bank officials around the world. There has already been rampant speculation about the possibility of intervention from the Swiss National Bank. The sharp intraday swings in USD/CHF have been credited to rate checking by the central bank. ECB officials have so far shown no discomfort with the rise in the EUR/USD, but if the rally continues, central banks that were lining up for the exit may back away from the door. "

...copied from fx360.com; Kathy Lien usually has a pretty good take on things in the FX world, see link...

http://www.fx360.com/commentary/kath...-momentum.aspx


...hey, how's that for a Treasury official's name - David Dollar?

So, what will the E/U do in the coming days? I really think this sumbuck is coiled up & ready to strike. Pretty tight but volatile range on Friday yet we had a down day for US stocks and a $2.50 drop in the oil price. Something's gotta give. Somebody Big has been holding E/U up above .4550 or so and Somebody Else Big has been there at .4620 to say "I don't think so." to all advances. Something's gotta give. Kathy Lien's point about an over-estimation of the US Retail Sales figure to come out Tuesday could be spot on and that could be the catalyst for a big retrace. If I was a gambler (and of course a Fool is) I'd say .43XX has to be in the cards for the coming week...