Sonic R. System

ohh sorry for the pic here is the pic

Actually my pre-release work is up to _v6.8 right now. I have not updated you, Domas4, Cobra because I am still making decisions on some things.

TAH look plz at post #6165 by DD, you guyz are confusing me =)

Muhammad, I do not see any Sonic waves here can you please explain why you took this trade?

i´m waiting for the same trade, but i prefer to wait next movement above H (arround 1.0783)

BY SL 1.0789

That post was 19 hours ago. Things are different now. There is currently no setup. When it goes, it could go either way.

Well, I understand, but 19 hours ago I asked the same question:

what waves should we count as relevant ones and DD said that previous High was not relevant as price while making lower high poked up through the channel and closed above it.

I'm just trying to understand what highs and lows to take into consideration when entering the trade and i do not see any difference between the situation back then and the current one judging from the price action

Maybe I do not understand your question. I will say this. Step back and look at the most significant highs and lows that are spaced apart, and see if they form a wave. Sometimes, by trying to construct waves going thru practically every candle and with their highs and lows too close together, one can get out of sync with the broader picture.

ENTRY should have been triggered.

hmm, gd luck~

Ok, here it is:

First pic is a trade by DDaytrader on EU yesterday. You can clearly see how he marked the waves. Before the set-up triggered my question was why doesn't he look at it as a potential short? (see the pic).

DD actually didn't say anything except that we should pay attention to the Dragon, however I remeber the following post by him regarding my another loss trade (the pic number 2):

Doesn't allow to quote the whole post, here is the link: #5839

Going back to our current GU situation: If you look at the Highs and Lows it formed - the situation is identical to yesterday's EU trade taken by DDaytrader. So my question still remains: When we count the first high as relevant and when we don't?

at last hit my stoploss , u/c trade anad today g/u and e/u ranging enough,

If I Understood Your Question Right ... :
There Is Always Two Trends In The Market. If You Analyze The Market , There Is Always Two Point Of View That You Can Have. Like DD Said, You Can See It In 2 Ways. One For Long Opportunity And One For Short. The Short One In The Pic You Mentioned Did Not Triggered Because Price After Making The LH, Did Not Close Below The Tunnel Dragon. And Then After Making The HL, It Closes Above The Dragon And Make a Long Entry For E/U Yesterday.
Like I Show You In The Picture, You Are Faced The Left Figure On Your Chart. There Are Two Possibilities. Situation 1 And 2. Both Can Happen And It Will Change What You Call a Swing (High, Low, ...). I Mean If You Call a Point As High, It's Not Solid, It May Change, As You See In The Picture, The High Changed To Lower High In The Upper One Due To Price Action. And Look At How Tunnel Dragon Will Change In Different Situations.
I Hope I've Got Your Question. OtherWise Tell Me So I'll Be Able To Help You, If I Could.

Regards,
Basber

Some Traders Believe That : "If You Wanna Lose What You've Earn Along The Week, Trade On Fridays". I Don't Compeletly Accept This Idea, But I Don't Like To Trade After USO In Fridays Because Of Two Reasons :
1) It's High Probablity That a Consolidation Will Happen.
2) Sometimes There Are Some Bizzare Moves In The Market In This Hours.

So I Only Trade London Session In Fridays.

Regards,
Basber

Here Are Some Of My Analysis Through Price Action And S&R In Higher TFs. Comments Are Welcomed.
It May Help Some New Sonikers To See How They Can Analyze The Market Through Weekend (Or Daily) So They Can Have An Overall Picture For The Next Move Of The Market. (If It Suits Them, Sometimes Traders Will Do Fine Without These Kind Of Analysis Like DD, But I'm a Fan Of Price Action In Higher TFs So I Could Have a General Picture Of Pairs In Mind.)
I Think Discussing This Matters During The Weekend Will Allow Us To Share Our Insights And To Learn From Each Other.

I'm Planning To Do This Every Weekend.
Tell Your Opinion On This So I Will Know If This Move Have Some Advatages And Worth The Try.

The Analyze Is About The Pairs That I Expect To See Something Happen. The Other Pairs I've Not Mentioned, Is I Don't Have Any Opinion What Will Happen Next.

Let's Start :

E/U :
Picture 1 & 2 : EU Weekly Hit 61.8% Of Fibo Again. And As You See In Daily TF, There Is a PB Forming That Makes Me To Seek For Short Position In Incoming Trading Days. (Monday And Tuesday)

U/CHF :
Picture 3 : There Is a Resistance As You See, And There Is PB Formed In Daily TF. It's Not a Perfect PB (I Prefer The EU One) But It Could Change The Bias. Let's See What Will Happen On Monday. Price Will Make a SonicR Long Setup, Or It Will Break The Resistance And Make a SonicR Short Setup ?

E/G :
Picture 4 & 5 : Price Hits 38.2% Of Fibo Three Times And In Three Weeks It Failed To Break It. It Also Hits To a Strong Downtrend On Daily TF. So I'm Looking For Weaker Euro Againt The Cable For The Next Week.

G/J :
Picture 6 : In This Pair, Priced Is About To Finish a Double Tops Pattern. And The Uptrend Had Been Broken. So After Breaking The Neckline Of The M Pattern, I'll Look For Shorting This Pair.

I'm Looking Forward To See Some Feedbacks.

Regards,
Basber

Excellent advice ... sometimes we latch on to the left side of the chart (history, as Sonic would say) and we forget that we need to act at the right side of the chart (mystery). Mystery will remain mysterious and thus it will remain dangerous to your capital if you forget this simple fact: price can go up, price can go down, price can go sideways. What I try to do is imagine these three possibilities.

1) What Happens if Price Goes Up from Here?: If price goes up, do I have a previous high close above the dragon? If yes, then has price made a clear and orderly pullback from the high close? If both answers are yes, then, if price goes higher, I will have a SonicR long trigger. If the answer to either question is "no," then if price goes higher, I will be looking for a high with a close above the dragon. Once that occurs, I will be looking for an orderly pullback to set up a SonicR long.

2) What Happens if Price Goes Up from Here?: If price goes down, do I have a previous low close below the dragon? If yes, then has price made a clear and orderly pullback from the low close? If both answers are yes, then, if price goes lower, I will have a SonicR short trigger. If the answer to either question is "no," then if price goes lower, I will be looking for a low with a close below the dragon. Once that occurs, I will be looking for an orderly pullback to set up a SonicR short.

3) What Happens if Price Goes Sideways: I wait for a strong low close below or a strong high close above the dragon.

I think, snusnu, that you are doing what I often find myself doing: I forget that price can go up, or down, or sideways. I'll see price make a high. Then, I see price make a low that closes below the dragon, and I think to myself, "Ah Ha! ... Get ready to go short!" ... and I start waiting for a lower high and a break of the low. In the mean time, price makes that lower high, and I do not notice that that high closed above the dragon. I should now be thinking "Oh ... I might be going short, but I better watch for a possible higher low, and then I'll go long." Instead, I am so intent on looking for the short, I do not even see that price might be getting ready to rally and go long. If you look at my posts in the past, there have been many times where I said that "we have a SonicR short, but this could turn into a SonicR long very easily."

Another point specifically about yesterday's EU long where you are asking about a possible short. You are right: there was a high, and there was a low. You could have looked at that as a possible SonicR short. You do, of course, recognize that the short never triggered. Now, I would not have traded that set up short, because the EP would have been too far below the Dragon for my liking. The farther your EP from the dragon, the higher the risk, and the higher the liklihood of not reaching a TP1. Or, more likely, the distance between EP and SL is probably much greater than the distance between EP and TP1.

So, your confusion, if I am not mistaken, is twofold: First, it seems you were so focused on the possible short, that you seem not to have considered the possible long. Don't allow yourself to become so committed to one side of the market that you are blinded to the possibilities offered by the other side.

Second, you were confounded by why I did not mention a possible short when you very clearly saw a High and a Low, and thus a possible short entry. You were right, there was a possible short. I would not have traded it due to poor risk/reward, but maybe you would have. Each of us has to determine for him or herself what risk we are willing to take and what R:R ratio we feel is appropriate.

And this is the answe to the question you keep asking (going back to your own example): "When do we count the first high as relevant and when we don't?

The answer is every high and every low is relevant, always; but not every high and every low will offer an acceptable EP for a SonicR trade. The main reason that I decide not to take a SonicR is usually that the trade offers a poor risk/reward profile.

The short trade you were looking at in your example is a perfect example of a poor R/R. In fact, I just looked at your example again, and the low you point to was almost 40 pips below the lower trade band! Not only that, but the low was a mere pip above potential round number support at 1.4500, and daily S1 according to my data was only 6 pips below that at 1.4494. You would have been selling as price was digging into support. That would have been a perfect trap to set yourself up to sell short at the low tick just to watch price turn and roar right through your stop loss, which would have been at least 40 pips from your EP (we don't know for sure, becase price did not make a Lower High), and possibly 106 pips if your SL was above the high you use in your example. Would you risk 106 pips for a TP1 of 6 pips?

You are on your way, snusnu, you are doing well at identifying important highs and lows, which means you are almost halfway there. Now, you need to monitor those highs and lows in relation to the dragon. That will get you halfway to SonicR. You also need to pay attention to the other half of SonicR, whcih is money management and risk awareness.

Have a Good Weekend!

Another excellent post, Basber. Beautiful pictures. I have copied it and printed it out. It is now a permanent part of my SonicR notebook.

I like your idea to post big picture analysis on the weekends. I will try to share some thoughts also when I think I have something relevant to say. As I said yesterday (or was ti this morning) to TAH, I do not have as much confidence in my longer term analysis as I do in my shorter term SonicR reading. I am ready to keep learning big picture analysis from you and TAH and Sonic, and I'll throw in my little thoughts if I have any that I think add to what you guys are posting.

Thanks again!

Wow! Another superb post by ddaytrader! Recommended reading, no matter what your skill level.

EU: Friday trading was in a tight range of 81 pips. But the Big Boys need and greed would not be denied. No Sir! Small range? No matter, we will just whip it up and down and make our dough! As a result, PA made no less than 7 good pumps and dumps, from just under 50 pips to the full range of 81 pips! Was this done by traders too stupid to make up their minds what the proper pricing of EU should be? Or was this PA manipulation for profit, plain and simple, and regardless of what the proper pricing should be?

Tight ranging leads eventually to a breakout. But sometimes so does wild whipsawing. PA has been relentlessly run up over past days, but Friday closed as a doji on higher than 10 day average volume. So, the entire 81 pip range may be viewed as nothing more than the playing field where the pros are sticking it to the longs, by selling their longs off and going short.....up, down, up, down, up, down, up, down, up, down, etc.

Having said that, it is still possible PA could pop again. But the volume Friday seemed to predominate the highs and the runs down, with some of the highs being re-established on low, and even decreasing, volume. So, we may be in a wide range as the Big Boys off-load to traders that believe the dollar will continue to weaken against the euro. If we are in the midst of a trend change, then we may be ranging a while longer, before a true breakout. It would be too good an opportunity for the Big Boys to let it start dropping too soon, as that would let the cat out of the bag.

Have a good weekend, everyone!

Bravo ... Bravo ...

Regards,
Basber

Quiet weekend here in SonicR Thread. I don't mean to pick on Leo, but if you are still with us here, Leo, I'd still look forward to you posting some charts that show us the "back testing" you had done. I think it would be helpful for all of us if we could have an opportunity to discuss some of the failed set ups that you identified.

Thank you,

-dday