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We all need pivots to win..yes or not? 13 replies

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The System II (Yes with irony)

  • #5,281
  • Sep 10, 2009 1:46pm Sep 10, 2009 1:46pm
Quoting fxachilies
Now.. a must read..
I let you guys in on a secret.. its worth 200k.. it cost me that much to realize this in one month time..

countinuation signal is what gets everyone in troubel.. the extra ins and outs..
you can avoid that by staying patience with your original entery on the first break and led the price develop.. and make your job discription clear for yourself as to be a true runner hunter kind a trader.. otherwise.. you are a 21pips banker kind a guy with geting in and out often and find yourself in trouble on such days.. and at...
THanks FX for this post. Already printed it out.
Survive and Preserve
  • #5,282
  • Sep 10, 2009 2:20pm Sep 10, 2009 2:20pm
Quoting PaulLangham
Hi Fx,

Can I ask you a question about valid FCR`s during some of the large moves we had today and a few days ago.

If you see my first chart - I am asking whether or not you feel the FCR`s I have marked are valid. My reasoning here is that during these faster market moves price gets extended one way or the other and as we "know" (prediction ?) can snap back quickly, secondly the retracements become larger or deeper due to the larger original move. This leaves points on the table. In fact during those moves, a nicely formed FCR close to the...
Paul,
you may have got your answer from my last post..
fcr or 123 or any other formation or system or strategy or method or etc.. don't mean a thing when is during a major news time.. none of them will work as consistent as we used to during such times.. remember its all about consistency..
none of them will mean a thing when big dogs(banks, major corps, etc..) are dumping one currency verses other and thats why you get spikes and such imbalance market and its best to let it be.. don't even analyse it.. news is for entertainment.. I just watch and enjoy the excitment.. if you look at my chart for the day i have not even drawn my fcr lines after my last exit and the begining of the news.. why should I.. the probability of those enteries under the circumstances is way below what i am comfortable with it..

I hope I answered your question..
  • #5,283
  • Sep 10, 2009 2:34pm Sep 10, 2009 2:34pm
Quoting gevellber02
thank you for the comment
the thing is, with the 2end trad is that a new fcr/swing is formed and then i moved my stop above it.
i have a problem to determine when the poz is not good end cat it short.
playing 1&2 is not always work and i am not pro enough to play it yet.
maybe feb could pot some light on this issue
G,
that is not a fcr yet.. it looks premature eventhough you got a short price stall and a bearish candel but that looks still a retrace countinuation is inplace specially that you got a very short bearish candel, you want that to atleast create a double bottom.. when your looking for a reversal point after a major drop in one direction you got to be a little more carful and look for more convinsing fcr.. surely enough you get the reall fcr a few candels next and boom price droped for 32 pips as it shut down the revesal hope..
  • #5,284
  • Sep 10, 2009 3:12pm Sep 10, 2009 3:12pm
Good Morning all,

Firstly, Paul thanks mate, all good today, ready to focus and get and get it done. I dont mind continue using real money, this is what my micro account was for, for studying. I wasnt going to try get rich off 200 USD . So if it goes bust then so be it, it will sting a little but not send me broke. Its the price I am paying for studying the trade of the business.

FX,

Great post about continuation. I think I am just psychologically beaten by Thursday London session for illogical reason, So I play in both ways, defensively at first, then I come back and aggressively attack it. Now the problem is in that order because as you know, the first part of the breakout is normally the runner for the morning then we go into a range. So I played the runner defensively and the range aggressively as I was thinking to myself THURSDAY YOU ARE NOT GOING TO BEAT ME, and well Thursday became Self Fufulling once again.

The next problem was, once I was beaten in the London session. I then closed my charts instead of "resetting" and missed the very profitable NYC session.

This is slowly sinking in, I think my mental patterns are a quite hard to change, however its only been 3 weeks with this method and in 3 weeks I am "starting" to get a feel for the pair. Not in an arrogant way but watching the pair for at least 8 hours a day you can see when things and how they start to move. Now the trick is to use that "intuition" be apart of my trading, not in a psychic way but in a way of experience.

However, I truly don't understand how trading can make someone arrogant and obnoxious as I find it the most humbling experience I have ever had.

i have been doing this on an off for 2 years , my massive problem is when I start getting close (even with losing all this time) I quit as I beat myself up and get let down feeling I could never do it. This time I am pressing on, I will survive and I will excel.

And its mostly got to do with your guys encouragement and mentoring .
Survive and Preserve
  • #5,285
  • Sep 10, 2009 3:25pm Sep 10, 2009 3:25pm
Quoting fxachilies
G,
that is not a fcr yet.. it looks premature eventhough you got a short price stall and a bearish candel but that looks still a retrace countinuation is inplace specially that you got a very short bearish candel, you want that to atleast create a double bottom.. when your looking for a reversal point after a major drop in one direction you got to be a little more carful and look for more convinsing fcr.. surely enough you get the reall fcr a few candels next and boom price droped for 32 pips as it shut down the revesal hope..
thx!
i'm not sure i understand the different between the 2 swing
let my try ......
you say that if the price would go down and check the marked area you would consider it as a fcr????
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it's a huge gap tony, a huge gap.
  • #5,286
  • Sep 10, 2009 6:46pm Sep 10, 2009 6:46pm
Quoting en0x

i have been doing this on an off for 2 years , my massive problem is when I start getting close (even with losing all this time) I quit as I beat myself up and get let down feeling I could never do it. This time I am pressing on, I will survive and I will excel.

.
In my humble opinion, admitting this and talking loud about it is an evidence of you moving forward. I am not an expert, but I would say you are just entering in "the Trader Zone".

Keep on pushing, yesterday was tough. I decided to go and have a big nap when I saw the market moving as "the choppy monster's mummy".

More to come tomorrow.
  • #5,287
  • Edited 10:17pm Sep 10, 2009 10:03pm | Edited 10:17pm
Quoting gevellber02
thx!
i'm not sure i understand the different between the 2 swing
let my try ......
you say that if the price would go down and check the marked area you would consider it as a fcr????
Gevellber and to all,
don't fall into toomuch details in anything that we do here.. it will make your head spin even more.. there are no clear cut rules..
now lets look at gevellber's consern here.. so
in this case.. since at the time we were in the early stages of such strong (watch the chart) bearish swing (take off time) you need a more convinsing reversal point.. so let it really develop.. and yes what you show in your chart is exactly what i mean.. you need either of some more stalling time or a more of price dip in order to look at that as a reall fcr..
now same defenition may not fit in other situation.. for example:
if you got a brearish swing/trend that has made his reall move already and its slowly drying up, then at that time a small fcr would consider a solid reversal or atleast worth taking a shot with favorable RR on your side..

Now..
as i said on top there are no set clear cut rules that applies the same way all the time or works the same all the time and I have tried my hardest to put in words as to what and how i think and do things so you can get a bit more insight.. but eventually it all comes down to experience.. screen time.. many many practise trades that i have under my belt and you guys not yet.. therefor i got a better feel and intution for the 5m price movment then you guys yet..
these are the days that make you understand why I stress so much about.. one timeframe.. one currency.. one step out of time.. its hard enough to keep up with one currency, right? just imagine jumping in out to a few more and try to really know there different behaviors... foggget abw ded (as moneda says).. lol.. you can make enough money with just one and E/U is most suitable for our style..

anyhow I hope it helps..
  • #5,288
  • Sep 10, 2009 10:22pm Sep 10, 2009 10:22pm
Quoting fxachilies
Gevellber and to all,
don't fall into toomuch details in anything that we do here.. it will make your head spin even more.. there are no clear cut rules..
now lets look at gevellber's consern here.. so
in this case.. since at the time we were in the early stages of such strong (watch the chart) bearish swing (take off time) you need a more convinsing reversal point.. so let it really develop.. and yes what you show in your chart is exactly what i mean.. you need either of some more stalling time or a more of price dip in order to look at that as...
hay
of course it helps, and very inspiring
thank you very mach!
it's a huge gap tony, a huge gap.
  • #5,289
  • Edited 11:16pm Sep 10, 2009 11:01pm | Edited 11:16pm
Good morning, long @4624
I hope today I have more time to trade, because yesterday got overwhelmed at work.

Out with full loss...next
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  • #5,290
  • Sep 10, 2009 11:17pm Sep 10, 2009 11:17pm
Quoting eb_
Good morning, long @4624
I hope today I have more time to trade, because yesterday got overwhelmed at work.
just know the fact that your taking this up ride on its third opportunity..
1st 4583 bracket breakout.. 2nd 4609 contituation siganl out of bracket breakout.. 3rd simpy countinuation breakout..
  • #5,291
  • Sep 10, 2009 11:21pm Sep 10, 2009 11:21pm
Good morning all you run hunters.

Good fortune today. I'm ready to learn even more.

Can't thank you enough Fxachiles and Feb.

Mac
$urvive, Pre$erve & RESPECT THE TEACHER
  • #5,292
  • Sep 10, 2009 11:30pm Sep 10, 2009 11:30pm
Quoting fxachilies
Paul,
you may have got your answer from my last post..
fcr or 123 or any other formation or system or strategy or method or etc.. don't mean a thing when is during a major news time.. none of them will work as consistent as we used to during such times.. remember its all about consistency..
none of them will mean a thing when big dogs(banks, major corps, etc..) are dumping one currency verses other and thats why you get spikes and such imbalance market and its best to let it be.. don't even analyse it.. news is for entertainment.. I just watch...
Hi Fx

Ok thanks for this

Good trading today
Survive and Preserve
  • #5,293
  • Sep 10, 2009 11:37pm Sep 10, 2009 11:37pm
ya baby.. its all about price.. contemplating on throwing out the candels too.. line charts might be in for fx from now on.. going as naked as possible..
i'll try it today in live action.. will anaylise it over the weekends.. let you guys know what i will choose to go from monday on..

right now digging the hell out of this simple clean chart of mine.. I will figure out the nitty-gritty stuff about it.. stay tune..

by the way I am short..

http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/attach/gif.gif
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  • #5,294
  • Sep 10, 2009 11:38pm Sep 10, 2009 11:38pm
Fx,

I posted a question at 5270 and I still am not sure I get it. I understand the basics of the FCR, but you highlight one in a series of bear candles as a potential entry point. I've attached it again. Is it that it posts a slighly higher low than the previous one that qualifies it?

Thanks
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$urvive, Pre$erve & RESPECT THE TEACHER
  • #5,295
  • Sep 10, 2009 11:45pm Sep 10, 2009 11:45pm
SHort at 14603. Sl at FCR
$urvive, Pre$erve & RESPECT THE TEACHER
  • #5,296
  • Sep 10, 2009 11:46pm Sep 10, 2009 11:46pm
my buddy Moneda its gonna love this.. lol
his yesterdays post light a bulb on my head to see a different way..
i spend some time last night going over this and it should be the way to go.. will see

Thanks mon.
  • #5,297
  • Sep 10, 2009 11:47pm Sep 10, 2009 11:47pm
Quoting fxachilies
just know the fact that your taking this up ride on its third opportunity..
1st 4583 bracket breakout.. 2nd 4609 contituation siganl out of bracket breakout.. 3rd simpy countinuation breakout..

Hi Fx,

This is an interesting point. Especially following on from your continuation post yesterday.
Survive and Preserve
  • #5,298
  • Sep 10, 2009 11:49pm Sep 10, 2009 11:49pm
Good morning to everyone

I've been updating me a little bit with yesterdays posts...
Very useful and helpful as usual....

I'm short in this thing now.... Let's seen we are gonna play move #1
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  • #5,299
  • Sep 10, 2009 11:49pm Sep 10, 2009 11:49pm
Quoting mac1956
Fx,

I posted a question at 5270 and I still am not sure I get it. I understand the basics of the FCR, but you highlight one in a series of bear candles as a potential entry point. I've attached it again. Is it that it posts a slighly higher low than the previous one that qualifies it?

ThanksAttachment
the line that i call fractal in that chart is the fcr that we call it now..
  • #5,300
  • Sep 10, 2009 11:52pm Sep 10, 2009 11:52pm
... short triggered, lets see where Europe is going today ...
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