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We all need pivots to win..yes or not? 13 replies

The System (Irony included) 1,175 replies

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The System II (Yes with irony)

  • #5,261
  • Sep 10, 2009 7:04am Sep 10, 2009 7:04am
Quoting Ogna
How do you know if it was positive or negative? and where do you check your news?

It's on teh calendar part of Forex Factory - look at the tabs at the top of the page.
$urvive, Pre$erve & RESPECT THE TEACHER
  • #5,262
  • Sep 10, 2009 7:07am Sep 10, 2009 7:07am
Quoting feb2865
no problem..

If you see any significant announcement, check if was positive or negative, wait a lil bit and when you see signs of the market turning the other way, wait for a pullback (preferably but sometimes you have to go with the flow) and place the trade. Of course, money and trade management rules applies.

A lotta money goes into that particular move, trust me...

hope it helps.

well I am done for today.....FX, let's go fishing!!!!

CYA guys....

lol... mentally I went fishing 3hrs go.. now I go physically.. lol
i stayed away from all this nonesense.. I can't belive that much reaction goes into a fricking trade balance..

see you later feb.
  • #5,263
  • Sep 10, 2009 7:39am Sep 10, 2009 7:39am
I'll long at 42, feel funny look at my chart with all black bar.
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  • #5,264
  • Sep 10, 2009 7:55am Sep 10, 2009 7:55am
Quoting Musanto
I'll long at 42, feel funny look at my chart with all black bar.
Attachment
Musanto,

Ata boy!... imo it may seem like a small detail but anything that helps you keep your mental load lighter, and more focused on price action than the color of the candle with this approach should make a better trader.

Good luck.
Unus pro omnibus, omnes pro uno
  • #5,265
  • Sep 10, 2009 10:16am Sep 10, 2009 10:16am
one more
comments are most welcome !
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it's a huge gap tony, a huge gap.
  • #5,266
  • Sep 10, 2009 12:10pm Sep 10, 2009 12:10pm
Quoting moneda
Paul,

What an excellent in depth look at the workings of your mind(and ours as well)... your comments should not be confused with "paralysis through analysis" syndrome on the contrary, it is about reflection, honesty and realizing that trading is much more than the blueprint that we are using for entries and exits... yes, we need some structure but there is another ingredient that can not be put into words..... something that we all have the potential to experience and develop over time but many times we are our worst enemy. I make no claims...
Hi Moneda,

Thx for the reply. I was really trying to suggest that there the differnce between "expert understanding of your chosen market and timeframe" and "prediction", is actually very fine and difficult to define. I would say this is especially so for newcomers to trading. My idea was to try and start a discussion on this in order to help newcomers establsih for themslves where the dividing line lies.

Regarding the "thing" I beleive, everybody is capable of it, but first you need to do work, and each person`s path maybe a different one, taking differeing lenghts of time until they arrive.

Thanks for the continued support.
Survive and Preserve
  • #5,267
  • Sep 10, 2009 12:16pm Sep 10, 2009 12:16pm
Quoting en0x
Anyways, -87 today so far. Doing well
I am going to top the record for how many straight losses one can make. These are just 123 breaks and FCR breaks. They happen, but somehow I just got killed today. 7 trades - 6 complete losers. It seems every which way I take it price went the other way to wack me in the face.

Going to clean up my chart and post it so I can hang my head in shame. Just when i think I might be progressing I get another wack in the head from the market and wake up call that says, Pal, you are crap . Depressing I know.
Anyways...
Hi Enox,

When I first got involved in the trading game someone said to me learning to trade is about getting hit in the face with a hammer. It`s how you deal with it that creates the difference between those that can and those that can`t.

Maybe I can suggest something ?

Take a step back, maybe take a day or two without trading but marking your chart real time where the FCR`s come in and where your entry and exits would be. After this with all going well start entering the trades making sure the entries are correct. Just worry about entry. Once OK, make sure the exits are correct etc etc. So what I am saying is build one block at a time slowly slowy.

I don`t know if you will find this a sensible idea but maybe it will help.Maybe FX and the others will shot the piano player, it`s just an idea .

Cheers

PS Lastly NOBODY on this thread is CRAP - least of all you. Got to get the winning attitude in mind.
Survive and Preserve
  • #5,268
  • Sep 10, 2009 12:22pm Sep 10, 2009 12:22pm
Quoting gevellber02
please, comment are more then wellcome
Hi

I would say look at the trades FX posted Real time. Your second trade the short was the one he held on to. Maybe Fx can comment but you didn`t give the trade enough room in my opinion. Hope that helps
Survive and Preserve
  • #5,269
  • Sep 10, 2009 12:24pm Sep 10, 2009 12:24pm
Quoting fxachilies
everyone just ask yourself one question.. and that is..
we are on a 70pips bearish swing, why am I losing money? what do I need to incorporate to my trading psycholigically?
You got to get it into your head that you can sit there all day playing #2 and playing #1 and waiting for the #1 which turns into the runner and further, when that runner comes ,be able to recognize it, give it space to breath and bring you home the +70 and still win overall
Survive and Preserve
  • #5,270
  • Sep 10, 2009 12:25pm Sep 10, 2009 12:25pm
Quoting fxachilies
ok guys,
I am going to answer it..
we got a live example in hand as to why use fractal entery.. now before i get into that i noticed some of you are getting so picky about fractals beings or what it actually is.. the white lines in my charts indicates markets reversal turning points.. thats all.. so call it what you want.. call it fractals or fricking this fricking that.. or here is new one call it fxachilies crazy reversals (FCR.. here we go that works..lol).. fuck I dont know.. the point is the fricking price is indicating a reversal.. so we test...
I can see pullbacks as FCR's but I need a bit of help.
I've been going back over your words of wisdom and I realise I don't understand how this illustrates an FCR as it looks like a straightforward short ride down. The bit you highlight as a fractal - what is it about the PA that denotes an entry opportunity? Sorry for being dense
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$urvive, Pre$erve & RESPECT THE TEACHER
  • #5,271
  • Sep 10, 2009 12:26pm Sep 10, 2009 12:26pm
Quoting DareXau
Paul, ... that's why we keep stressing constantly about one time-frame and one currency cross.
Firstly everyone has to learn this, later on can trade any time-frame and any cross and any strategy ... just takes a time, there isn't any magic in it.
Thanks Dare
Survive and Preserve
  • #5,272
  • Sep 10, 2009 12:37pm Sep 10, 2009 12:37pm
This post is a masterclass - it explains a lot to me.

Thanks for it.
Quoting fxachilies
Guys.. the chart below is my chart for the day..
entery/blue shades.. exits/yellow thick line.

I did not take trade #2 because i sat out for todays major bullshit news..

i had 4 trades.. made close to two shy of hundi pips.. taking full maximum of todays opportunites.. and thats what its all about.. these are the days that makes up for days like yesterday..
bottomline is everything..

check out my chart as to where my enteries and exits are.. but what i want you to really pay attention is my fcr lines.. i draw the them immidiatly as soon...
$urvive, Pre$erve & RESPECT THE TEACHER
  • #5,273
  • Sep 10, 2009 1:01pm Sep 10, 2009 1:01pm
Hi All,

Here are today`s trades.

Trade 1 - When I look at most of the other trades who played the same trade here we mostly did not have enough patience and closed at BE or slight profit. Me too.

Trade 2 - Long - Yes I did get filled on this one and I was 3 above. No real damage as played #2.

Trade 3- Short Played 1 trade excuted according to plan.

Trade 4 - LOng played correctly.

Trade 5 - Long Played correctly - nice runner for me.

Trade 6 - Short- Closed at the bottom on hesitation

Comments welcome thanks for the commentary during the day .
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Survive and Preserve
  • #5,274
  • Sep 10, 2009 1:14pm Sep 10, 2009 1:14pm
Quoting PaulLangham
Hi

I would say look at the trades FX posted Real time. Your second trade the short was the one he held on to. Maybe Fx can comment but you didn`t give the trade enough room in my opinion. Hope that helps
thank you for the comment
the thing is, with the 2end trad is that a new fcr/swing is formed and then i moved my stop above it.
i have a problem to determine when the poz is not good end cat it short.
playing 1&2 is not always work and i am not pro enough to play it yet.
maybe feb could pot some light on this issue
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it's a huge gap tony, a huge gap.
  • #5,275
  • Sep 10, 2009 1:19pm Sep 10, 2009 1:19pm
Hi Fx,

Can I ask you a question about valid FCR`s during some of the large moves we had today and a few days ago.

If you see my first chart - I am asking whether or not you feel the FCR`s I have marked are valid. My reasoning here is that during these faster market moves price gets extended one way or the other and as we "know" (prediction ?) can snap back quickly, secondly the retracements become larger or deeper due to the larger original move. This leaves points on the table. In fact during those moves, a nicely formed FCR close to the low never seems to actually form, it is more like it is implicit in the price action itself, within those long aggressive candles if you like.

I am not trying to rob the bank but I am wondering if during these moves a very tight FCR based on the high or low of some of those extreme candles is a valid entry or not. As you can see from today`s action by taking them they would have got the trader in very very early into the reversal trade. And this as you have always said is vital for success.

The chart which is less of a close up shows better what I mean about the severe and aggressive candles and the snap back which eventually will probabaly happen at some stage.

Thanks in advance.
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Survive and Preserve
  • #5,276
  • Sep 10, 2009 1:22pm Sep 10, 2009 1:22pm
Quoting gevellber02
thank you for the comment
the thing is, with the 2end trad is that a new fcr/swing is formed and then i moved my stop above it.
i have a problem to determine when the poz is not good end cat it short.
playing 1&2 is not always work and i am not pro enough to play it yet.
maybe feb could pot some light on this issue

This a bit like what I was saying in my long post from earlier today - a breakout whch looks like it will follow and then not taking the FCR in the opposite direction. IN fact this is a perfect example of this. I would prefer FX to comment on this, but if you read that post maybe it will at least put the argument on the table for you.
Survive and Preserve
  • #5,277
  • Sep 10, 2009 1:27pm Sep 10, 2009 1:27pm
Quoting PaulLangham
Trade 4 - LOng played correctly.

Trade 5 - Long Played correctly - nice runner for me.

Trade 6 - Short- Closed at the bottom on hesitation

Comments welcome thanks for the commentary during the day .
Hi Paul, thanks for sharing your charts. It's always helpful for me to compare mine with yours.

Trade 4 - There was a failed break on the short side just before your entry on the FCR. I'm curious how you decided not to enter short there?

Trade 5 - Good job on being patient with this one. I didn't trade this one but the LH / LL would have scared me.

Trade 6 - I bailed way too early on that one. You're an inspiration!
  • #5,278
  • Sep 10, 2009 1:34pm Sep 10, 2009 1:34pm
ok guys.. I have posted my chart for the day.. i know it looks odd.. only two trades..
its simple.. stuck to my job desciption (catch a runner) as always and once i get one I ride till reall threat arrives..
1st long trade was based on bracket breakout.. got faked out and lost only 12 pips..
2nd trade.. boom runner.. closed it for 23pips..
rest of the day was major news times.. which I sit those out as i have said many times.. (gray box)..
i am +11pips for the day.

I know a lot of people struggled as I was watching most of it..
I am not going to make any comments about during news time action bcz i sit on my hands and you should have aswell..
but what i do want to make comments about is prior to the news when that nice bearish ride was going on..
most of you either lost money during that run or did not make any money..
simply for one reasons..

not being patience..

-you exit bcz your impatience to let the swing develop enough.. then
-you reenter on the countinuation further down the swing.. which is higher risk to get toped off and cheat yourself out of potential profit..
now don't tell me you were playing #1&2.. bcz we had a strong break of L/L as i show it in my chart for you.

Guys i am all about price and my expectancy skill and simple commonsense..
the most you would have lost on that short trade was no more than 10pips.. one of the main reason i don't bailout to early out of my trade is bcz i dislike countinuation signals for the reason above.. I only take such signals when it goes bracket which must be some ping pong time before I take it again in the same direction (read my post about countinuation)..

now, many of you wonder why I did not take that fcr 4542 bullish break..
simple commonsense was the reason.. major news was coming in 30min time (london rate).. but i did use that fcr to exit my short trade.. I just don't have to neccessarly take the long on that bcz major news is coming and price could spike.. I stay away from that.. as i also stayed away from taking the pull after the trade balance news bcz Ny open was next and the yankees could have turned it around or create spikes.. (markets reactions to this news was odd.. atleast to me.. so i won't get rolled over by big guns)
I make my money during normall time of the market with ease.. there is plenty of those times..
there is no magic to this guys.. the magic is you.. to keep it simple..

Now.. a must read..
I let you guys in on a secret.. its worth 200k.. it cost me that much to realize this in one month time..

countinuation signal is what gets everyone in troubel.. the extra ins and outs..
you can avoid that by staying patience with your original entery on the first break and led the price develop.. and make your job discription clear for yourself as to be a true runner hunter kind a trader.. otherwise.. you are a 21pips banker kind a guy with geting in and out often and find yourself in trouble on such days.. and at best a so so bottomline.. I been there done that guys..
thats why i stress so much about.. runners.. runners.. runners.. so much.. it comes out of my hard earned and costly experience..
today I led you guys to find out in the hard way..


shake off whatever happend to you today.. but take a note of it.. come back tomorrow with reading the last part of my post atleast a few times till you really absurb it..

see you before London open.. i got your back, don't worry.. I be trading full force and helping out.

http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/attach/gif.gif
  • #5,279
  • Sep 10, 2009 1:36pm Sep 10, 2009 1:36pm
Quoting mac1956
I can see pullbacks as FCR's but I need a bit of help.
I've been going back over your words of wisdom and I realise I don't understand how this illustrates an FCR as it looks like a straightforward short ride down. The bit you highlight as a fractal - what is it about the PA that denotes an entry opportunity? Sorry for being dense
Hi everyone, great thread, been following thread for some time ,thanks feb2865, fxachilies and all.


@mac1956

I think I'm right in saying, yes it was a straighforward ride down, but it was breaking through the previous fractal level that had the white line drawn from it( I have attempted to mark it with a white arrow) hope that helps

Paul
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  • #5,280
  • Sep 10, 2009 1:42pm Sep 10, 2009 1:42pm
Quoting cunparis
Hi Paul, thanks for sharing your charts. It's always helpful for me to compare mine with yours.

Trade 4 - There was a failed break on the short side just before your entry on the FCR. I'm curious how you decided not to enter short there?

Trade 5 - Good job on being patient with this one. I didn't trade this one but the LH / LL would have scared me.

Trade 6 - I bailed way too early on that one. You're an inspiration!

Hi Cunparis

Have to admit that normally my orders are in the market and I really "thought" (precition again) that the market would turn at this point and that my long trade number 4 would be Ok. In the end it wasn1t but I didnt chase the downside trade which followed. So truthfully it was more luck than judgement.
Survive and Preserve
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