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Sonic R. System

  • #6,121
  • Sep 9, 2009 6:03pm Sep 9, 2009 6:03pm
Quoting heartstart
U/J- not triggered
buy stop 92.26
stop loss-91.90
TP1-92.44
Can you post your chart? I do not believe I am seeing the same thing as you are.
  • #6,122
  • Sep 9, 2009 6:06pm Sep 9, 2009 6:06pm
Quoting heartstart
U/J- not triggered
buy stop 92.26
stop loss-91.90
TP1-92.44
Sorry, the rules here are - no picture - no post of the trade
cut losses short, let profits run.
  • #6,123
  • Edited 6:40pm Sep 9, 2009 6:26pm | Edited 6:40pm
Quoting heartstart
U/J- not triggered
buy stop 92.26
stop loss-91.90
TP1-92.44
Quoting ddaytrader
Can you post your chart? I do not believe I am seeing the same thing as you are.
I am not saying that UJ is not going to rally. It may, and for all I know UJ could be 500 points higher by NYO. But ... (you knew that was coming) ...

I see two things here that would give me pause before going long UJ right here.

1) mid-pivot at 92.32, and more importantly, in my opinion,

2) H1 channel upper trendline is very close.

That is an awful lot of resistance to be buying into at your entry. Also, at your entry, price will already be extended 20+ pips above upper trade band.

Again, none of this means that price is not going to blast right through all of that and rocket upward for hundreds of pips. This is th emarket, and anything can happen. But, trading requires solid risk management. This is not only about using a stop loss, but also abut choosing those set-ups that offer high probability. This one does not strike me as terribly high. Also, your TP1 is +18 points, your stop loss is 36 pips. You are upside down on your risk profile. You are risking twice as much as you stand to gain at what should be a high odds target - your TP1. And yet your first target is on the other side of some stiff resistance (so not nearly as high odds as a typical SonicR TP1) and should price stall and reverse before filling your TP1, you stand to lose 36 pips. If you trade risk 2 dollars for every dollar you stand to gain, you will not last long.

Again, this trade might be a winner. UJ may rally to both TPs. But, when SonicR gives so many decent opportunities nearly everyday, this is one I'd let pass. And if it does hit both TP's? I would not mind in the least. Let it go.

If you are demo trading, I guess you could argue that "it is just demo." But if you are demo trading seriously with the intention ultimately of taking real risk in a real money account, then my advice to you would be to trade your demo and protect your demo capital as tenacously as you plan on protecting your own. It will not be possible to achieve quite that level of committment to your demo account, as nothing compares to actually gaining or losing many dollars/pip of real, bill paying money. But you should be as picky about the trades you take in your demo account as you'd be if you were trading real dough. And, if this is a trade you would take with real dough, then by all means take it in your demo account.

Good Luck!
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  • #6,124
  • Sep 9, 2009 8:24pm Sep 9, 2009 8:24pm
EJ M15: Interesting confusion. Look at what the SHI Channel and the SHI Channel MTF have to say about it! .....up or down? Yeah, it might be an interesting session.
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  • #6,125
  • Sep 10, 2009 1:20am Sep 10, 2009 1:20am
EU M15: Could be weakening. Both a Monthly and Weekly pivot is at 1.4601, and it would not be out of the question for one last pump up to that whole number area. Will be interesting to see what happens.
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  • #6,126
  • Sep 10, 2009 1:29am Sep 10, 2009 1:29am
Quoting traderathome
EU M15: Could be weakening. Both a Monthly and Weekly pivot is at 1.4601, and it would not be out of the question for one last pump up to that whole number area. Will be interesting to see what happens.
TAH, what are your settings for PivotD and PivotMW indi's as my S&R lvls seem to differ from yours. From your own experience, which formula is better to use, daily or fibo?

Regards,
snu.
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  • #6,127
  • Sep 10, 2009 1:44am Sep 10, 2009 1:44am
Quoting snusnufreak
TAH, what are your settings for PivotD and PivotMW indi's as my S&R lvls seem to differ from yours. From your own experience, which formula is better to use, daily or fibo?

Regards,
snu.
My chart shows PivotsMW using Day formula, and SDX-TzPivots(v6 pre-release) using Day formula shifted to midnight-to-midnight GMT time zone. You are using fibonacci formula and PivotsD, which is not time zone shifted. I can not say that one formula is better to use than the other, because on any day the PA can respect either, both, or neither! Perhaps other traders have a preference, and if they care to let it be known what they prefer, and why, it may be helpful to us all.
  • #6,128
  • Edited 2:02am Sep 10, 2009 1:45am | Edited 2:02am
Quoting snusnufreak
TAH, what are your settings for PivotD and PivotMW indi's as my S&R lvls seem to differ from yours. From your own experience, which formula is better to use, daily or fibo?

Regards,
snu.
snusnufreak, I believe he is using newly developed SDX pivots indicator with GMT zone shift. This indicator has not been posted yet, since it is not finished.

Didn't cross the BUY STOP by 1 pip. Too bad.
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cut losses short, let profits run.
  • #6,129
  • Sep 10, 2009 2:04am Sep 10, 2009 2:04am
EU: Perhaps it will happen something like this.....possiblity as I currently see it.
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  • #6,130
  • Sep 10, 2009 2:23am Sep 10, 2009 2:23am
Quoting traderathome
This session might be interesting. By the look of H4 charts, the GU is at a PPZ based upon upper TL. EU is not at such a point. But if GU changes direction and goes down, so likely is the EU to do the same. On the other hand, since EU is not at a PPZ based upon H4 channel TLs, it could continue upwards. If this happens then GU should break thru the H4 upper TL. But that begs the question, "Is there enough momentum/strength in these two, against the dollar, to keep going higher?"

Let's see how the session goes!

Edit: And it is becoming less...
Quoting traderathome
EU: Perhaps it will happen something like this.....possiblity as I currently see it.
I Think Shorting EU Is More Safe, Because EG Hit a Hard Resistance (And Monthly MR1) And It Could Form a Double Tops. What's Your Opinion On This TAH ?

Regards,
Basber
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Trading methods are designed to put the odds in our favor, not predicting.
  • #6,131
  • Sep 10, 2009 2:27am Sep 10, 2009 2:27am
Quoting Domas4
snusnufreak, I believe he is using newly developed SDX pivots indicator with GMT zone shift. This indicator has not been posted yet, since it is not finished.

Didn't cross the BUY STOP by 1 pip. Too bad.
Actually it was good that it didn't make it.

UJ looks to me like its ranging: Dragon is flat, the price is close to upper SHI boundary, I would personally like to wait for a bigger pullback, as price tested the 89 EMA now, so retracement is due.

Another thought to this is that It made an A-B-C type correction after the wave 1 during yesterday's US session, so we could be expecting a big move up long time as wave 3 and then wave 5 develop. (Look at the second pic.)

Time will tell.
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  • #6,132
  • Sep 10, 2009 2:33am Sep 10, 2009 2:33am
Quoting Basber
I Think Shorting EU Is More Safe, Because EG Hit a Hard Resistance (And Monthly MR1) And It Could Form a Double Tops. What's Your Opinion On This TAH ?

Regards,
Basber
I agree. I'd feel more confident of a short setup now, than a long setup. All the news "talking heads" keep the buzz of "dollar weakness" in front of us. My suspicious mind says the "pros" are closing their longs and going short....before they switch to talking about dollar strength. Not saying it can't get pumped higher, but "dollar weakness" may be a "false truth"......giving the big operators lots of the sucker herd to sell to as they close longs and go short. (heh, heh)

And now......back to the charts......
  • #6,133
  • Sep 10, 2009 2:37am Sep 10, 2009 2:37am
EU: Okey, what now....downside and US open traders join in? Or will US traders give 'er another pump before everyone stops supporting it? Yes, will be an interesting day.....
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  • #6,134
  • Sep 10, 2009 2:39am Sep 10, 2009 2:39am
Quoting traderathome
I agree. I'd feel more confident of a short setup now, than a long setup. All the news "talking heads" keep the buzz of "dollar weakness" in front of us. My suspicious mind says the "pros" are closing their longs and going short....before they switch to talking about dollar strength. Not saying it can't get pumped higher, but "dollar weakness" may be a "false truth"......giving the big operators lots of the sucker herd to sell to as they close longs and go short. (heh, heh)

And now......back to the charts......
I like GU wave formation better than EU... anyways, I'm out as I'm hesitating.
  • #6,135
  • Sep 10, 2009 2:43am Sep 10, 2009 2:43am
Let's See What Will Happen. The Rest Is Up To Market.

Regards,
Basber
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Trading methods are designed to put the odds in our favor, not predicting.
  • #6,136
  • Sep 10, 2009 2:43am Sep 10, 2009 2:43am
Quoting snusnufreak
I like GU wave formation better than EU... anyways, I'm out as I'm hesitating.
Time yet to trade it.....
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  • #6,137
  • Sep 10, 2009 3:03am Sep 10, 2009 3:03am
Quoting traderathome
Time yet to trade it.....
I wanted to enter on the Sonic channel break and bounce of the 89 EMA around the 1.6515 area, but then I read Basber's post about the EG and decided to stay out =).
  • #6,138
  • Sep 10, 2009 3:17am Sep 10, 2009 3:17am
  •  nerd
  • | Joined Jul 2008 | Status: Fate loves the fearless. | 48 Posts
Hi everyone...

i hve been following n learning from dis thread for abt a few weeks now...dis place is great n dere r some wonderful people helpin in here...just wanted to thank all of dem..

i'll share my views n analysis..as well as charts...although, as i've just started tradin dis method, most of my trades will be losers..but i'll still post in a hope to learn..

good luck to everyone !
  • #6,139
  • Sep 10, 2009 3:22am Sep 10, 2009 3:22am
Quoting snusnufreak
I wanted to enter on the Sonic channel break and bounce of the 89 EMA around the 1.6515 area, but then I read Basber's post about the EG and decided to stay out =).
Snu, Don't Let Other's Analyze Distract You From Yours. Trust Yourself. At Least Do What You Wanted To Do In Demo. Because If You Don't Take The Trade, You'll Not Learn The Lesson. An Take Notes From Every Single Trade (Winner Or Loser) That You Take.

Regards,
Basber
Trading methods are designed to put the odds in our favor, not predicting.
  • #6,140
  • Sep 10, 2009 3:26am Sep 10, 2009 3:26am
Quoting nerd
Hi everyone...

i hve been following n learning from dis thread for abt a few weeks now...dis place is great n dere r some wonderful people helpin in here...just wanted to thank all of dem..

i'll share my views n analysis..as well as charts...although, as i've just started tradin dis method, most of my trades will be losers..but i'll still post in a hope to learn..

good luck to everyone !
Welcome Here Nerd,
It's Completely Normal To Loose In First Days In Trading a Method. I Was Losing With This System For a Month (First Month While Reading The Thread). Share Your Trades So We Can Accelerate Your Growth In This Method.

Regards,
Basber
Trading methods are designed to put the odds in our favor, not predicting.
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