Elliott Wave Counting with EG

I am currently trading blind as I can not get my set up on MT4 to work and update.

Just as I expected, price has been ranging in the 1-5min chart and I have already locked some profits by closing out some trades in profit earlier which at this point would now be back to the red if I did not exit.

NEVER wallow on the thought that if I had waited a little longer, then it could have possible gone up. because you may also regret it as it is also possible for it to go in reverse mode to your trade direction.

control the greed and take the profits you already see. Anyway there are still some trades on the block

EG:

Bedtime now.

closed all positions but 1 which SL has been moved to +1. TP @ 1.6650

A free trade.

Made well for the day. No need to force it.

Happy Trading Everyone.

EG

Dear EG, I have a little confusion with the top of August 5, 09. Apparently, it seems that you are taking it as the fifth of C of 4. Can you please help me understand the internal wave structure of the fifth wave of the C wave. I have tried so hard but cannot find the five wave internal structure of the fifth wave. I will greatly appreciate your help.

Thank you.

Moiz,

I keep an open mind when doing my wave counts. there will always be alternative counts just as I mentioned above. The key is to spot alternative counts and holding on to them till they are invalidated.

Now you will say that multiple alternative counts which may lead to opposite directions will be more confusing and will prevent you from trading....

That is partly TRUE. However. the important thing there is UNLESS you get a high probability signal, then that is the only time you take the trade.

It is therefore necessary for me to use other tools to increase potential validity of the trade. Otherwise I do not take the trade.

Staying out of a low probability trade is still better that taking your chances on something that has low probabuility based on your analysis.

Do not be in a hurry to get into a trade. If you are just starting, keep your trades low in value. just multiply them in your mind to get that rich feeling. But your live trades must stay low in value until you get consistently better and higher profit rates.

Many new traders are burnt because of impatience plus the desire to get rich. I have been there and I learned my lesson the hardway. Paid dearly for it. In time, you get to manage your losses and get a grip of your emotion whether in Profit or in Loss.

Watch your charts and keep reading and reviewing and applying the EW Rules and Guidelines in your analysis.

Look for other tools that will aid you in identifying waves. Read and keep reading.The best way for you to learn is to spot these things yourself.

I am not saying that you should not ask questions. ASK but do not expect that the answers will be handed to you on a silver platter. I or we can lead you. Then you will learn better.

EG

Corrective waves can be very tricky. They can take the simple form or they can expand and take on complex structures.

Aug 5 top is considered as potentially a Top if it was the end of a C of 4. But it could also be likely that it is the end of a 3 of a 4A. Note that C can only be a maximum of 161.8 of A which in this case is so much more than that.

That is the reason why I am inclined to consider that Aug 5 top is just the top of a Wave 3 of 4A.

Aug 5 can be a Top of wave C of 4 if C was a complex wave.

So.... you need to use other tools to get into a trade. EWA will only provide you potential scenarios. It will not give you the exact direction.

It is very nice to look at. However, you need to develop patience and discipline not to get married to a trade. EWA wave counts will provide you potential scenarios for reversal, continuing or a sideways trend.

Remember that different timeframes can be in opposite trends. So you need to do your EWA on the different TFs so that you can somehow enter a trade when multiple TFs are in the same direction.

It will limit your risk by invalidating your wave count based on the rules and guidelines. That is were your SL comes in handy.

If your wave count was right, then you do not get stopped out.

So after you get a grip on your EWA, have the patience to wait for price to RETRACE so you reduce your RISK/SL for your count to be invalidated.

Read up on Support and Resistance Levels. Combine that with your EWA.

If you have the stamina for more, observe other technical tools. and how they move with price and how they relate with your wave counts.

I hope that gives you a clearer idea.

EG

Last weeks upward move has taken out the 61.8 retracement of previous wave which topped at 1.7042. This has satisfied an expanding corrective wave guideline that wave "b" of its possible internal wave count must retrace "a" by more than 61.8%

Current low of 1.6596 just hit the 1.6600 TP I left it with over the weekend.

Why 1.6600? It was a risk I could take with this last trade based on my profits last week. I was willing to wait it out for the retracement.

That is what is nice with forex ( for as long as you don't bet the whole house ) You will have room to wait for what is inevitably a retracement in any forex move.

The question is just , are you willing to sit it out and wait OR can you afford to set aside and nurse that trade and still be able to trade a new one?


Anywaythe move from 1.7042 coming down looks like a Leading Diagonal Triangle "A". and with this, we look forward to a sharp retracement which I think we have just seen.

Next question is, was last Friday the beginning of a reversal?


Based on 1 system, it possibly was a reversal as there were a number of resistance levels in last weeks top.

However, another system is pointing to still a continuing move up as it has not crossed down through a resistance range.

Note that that was on a Daily chart. If you do not get a clear picture on the Daily chart, then move down to the lower time frames and base your decisions on what the lower time frames are telling you on various sytems to validate your EWA.

Otherwise, WAIT till the daily gets clearer.

For me, I am more inclined that price will still get back up as usually retracements of Diagonal triangles return near its origin. The 61.8% was most likely just the first test.

Note your Support and Resistance levels, Watch for Divergence...

Happy a profitable week trading.

EG

15min chart is showing a primary m,ove down but is currently still in a retracement, 3 hours into the Asian session.

30min though indicates a deeper move than the 15min. Possibly in the range of 1.6582 and 1.6565 where the weekly Pivot is.


Otherwise, if we dont see a bounce there, Cable will be likely to go deeper losing more ground to the USD.

EG

Limit Buy order @1.6582 got taken earlier.

"Saw it in profit for awhile in in less than 5 min, it reversed and plunged.

We still have the weekly and the monthly pivots below. However, looking at the 1 hour chart now, price has zapped thru a major support range....

So more likely it will continue to go down. of course there will still be some retracements along the way. But the moment price went back up and trade showed some profit, I exited that 1 trade.

Now waiting for better signal to enter a trade. ALWAYS take a trade from a Support or a Resistance Level.

This way, you have a better chance at exiting the trade at a small loss or some profit when it retraces.... just incase your trade direction was wrong.

EG

15min chart is showing Divergence now. so it is moving up.

But that tells me not to be greedy. Exited my trade at a small profit and waiting for wave development and coordination of multiple signals going into the same direction. Be it down or up.

EG

I just checked the chart 5minutes ago and saw price where I wanted it to be for me to put a new SELL trade. This was the retracement for wave 2 which I was waiting for ( 1hour chart )

out at 35pips on multiple trades. may have missed some more pips... but I was already in profit and its now time for bed.

looking forward to next day's session

Daily does not look that definite about coming down
4hour price is still in a resistance range
1 hour and 30 min shows price retracing to a resistance range which indicate further move down
15min is still above a resistance range



EG

a symmetrical triangle on the 5min and 15min chart

price consolidating on the 15min chart below some resistance.

entered my trades for the day.

EG

added a short Cable @ 1.6598 as back up to my early position. this will be for a retrace if it occurs.

wave count bias leaning more toward a downward move.

the symmetrical triangle on the 5min and 15min chart may still be on track as wave 2 up being in a 3wave structure and its "b" is the symmetrical triangle of the zigzag.

c=a and b is a symmetrical triangle.
end of "c" encountering potential resistance at 1.6600 range.

look at your 15min chart and you can draw a downward channel using the candlesticks data of the last 2 days.

price at 1.6600 is retesting the upper side of a downward channel.

if price stays within this channel, Cable likely to fall harder to 1.6430 or lower.

a symmetrical triangle can only be found in a wave 2 wave "B" and an "X". so you be the judge.

EG

I hope the rest of you had the patience to wait amidst the retracement we saw.

Exited @1.6632. Maybe too early resulting to missing more than 30 pips additional on each trade.

But that drop was so fierce that I was happy to take what I already had. Then wait for a new retracement for the continued move down.

EG

I am beginer on Elliot Wave tehique and i post my chart to see posible correction .I participate in all Elliot theard to improve Elliot Wave tehnique


Now i will put my Elliot Chart 4h GBP USD and please tell me if i am wrong or where to Put TP,SL.

i am 50 plus so far and i was put SL 1 pip below pin,is that correct ? Look the picture

I opened buy at 1.6450 and SL is 1.6400 TP 100 ( or open ) i dont know Elliot rules about SL and TP ;(

There are no specific SL rules, but in this case one of the Elliott Wave rules is that wave 2 cannot retrace more than 100% of wave 1.
So, coming out of wave C, if indeed that is a wave C, you are now in wave 1.
Your stop should be then at the bottom of wave C + a couple ticks for the spread. If price retraces beyond the origin of wave 1, your count was wrong.
In that case you are likely in a wave 5 or III of 5 and you need to plan your counter trade to make up for your loss.

Yes yes , Thanks pipin

This is correct

Petar,

I suggest you read Prechter and Frost's Book on EW. Chapters 1 up to at least 3 should put you on a clearer direction.

The rules and guidelines actually provide you an idea where to enter a trade and where to project your TP and your SL.


More graphic examples for TP and SL is presented by Robert Balan.

Miner also discusses his way of applying EW in his trades.

Read these 3 books and keep applying these to your charts. Soon you will have more confidence in your counts.

Key is still patience and persistence. SO if you are just starting, trade with pennies and not dollars per trade. then if in a yr, you get consistently profitable with a trading strategy or system you are comfortable with, then step up to USD0.50 per pip.

The key is to be consistently profitable. So start small and build from there.

Learning to trade can never be fast tracked.

I see you have the fibo arc on your chart. That can be one of your tools to establish your TP and your SL. you can also see that in the books i mentioned above.

Note that your wave 1 on the 1st chart you posted was labelled wrong. although that was revised on the 2nd chart.

Another thing, do not get stuck with just EW. there are times when wave counts do not seem clear. you need other system just to give you an idea. There are lots of tools out there for free. Try as many as you can and observe. then select which ones you feel comfortable using and which suit your personality.

EG

I missed additional moves last night as my computer started acting up freezing my screen and preventing me from opening my charts.

I could not open new trades as I did not want to trade blindly.

This morning I was able to fix my computers by uninstalling the Avira anti-virus I installed yesterday. somehow, my MT4 is functioning again. Anyway, I opened 2 sell trades Before leaving home this morning leaving the TP open and SL was at 120.

I missed 64pips, by the time I cam back this late pm in Asia, price had returned up to where I entered my trade.

Basically, I am looking for a new downward move here. but I do not see any confirmation yet. SO waiting on the side and holding still the trades I entereed this morning 12 hours ago.

Pn the 1hr chart, we see a possible ending diagonal for a wave C which however may overlap with a possible wave 1 down on same chart.

But on the 30 min chartwe can see a possible move up still as the candlesticks are lining up within a channel.

But note that the Daily Pivot level is at 1.65153 on my chart.

EG

I have Sell limit order somewhere below the weekly Pivot level above.

That is just incase price still goes up to make a possible "C" = "A"

4hr chart does not show any divergence and the last 7 candlesticks since yesterday are trapped in a range, where bias would be for an upward move.

For me if a 4nr candle opens and closes above the Daily Pivot, then very likely we would see upward move till tomorrow.

But should price open and close below the previous day's low which is also near the Weekly 1st support level, then price will continue to go down.

EG