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  • #140,361
  • Sep 8, 2009 2:29pm Sep 8, 2009 2:29pm
Quoting maurofx
I don't seem to understand this fundamental news...let me see: if yelds go up people would "sell" USD to get the bonds, so that's what explains our rally?? Don't laugh at me, I'm totally in the dark with this lol!!!! Thanks in advance!
The yield was going up which usually means less demand for US Treasuries. But because the Auction today was very successful the yield started going back down because of the healthy demand for US Treasuries.

It appears that short term Treasuries are really popular and I've read that China are buyers of short term Treasuries. It's the longer term Treasuries that I think may be the worry (because some people believe inflation may be on the way) and they aren't so popular because it is not as easy to get in and out of them. So let's see how the longer term Treasury auctions perform.

That's my dunce view on it. I didn't go to University - doh!

AtLast, do you want to help me out here?


Qatar's oil minister says OPEC faces uncertain demand given the outlook for economic conditions. He further said stockpiles are high.

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JohnKicklighter
John Kicklighter
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  • #140,362
  • Sep 8, 2009 2:32pm Sep 8, 2009 2:32pm
Quoting Patience
Qatar's oil minister says OPEC faces uncertain demand given the outlook for economic conditions. He further said stockpiles are high.
OH - SHIT! seems we'll see some action after all
  • #140,363
  • Sep 8, 2009 2:34pm Sep 8, 2009 2:34pm
Quoting TheFisherman
Yields go up when bond owners sell bonds owned. A bond is considered the safest investment because it's guaranteed by the government an central bank of a country (we're talking about treasuries bonds here - there are corporate bonds also and some times municipal bonds). Alas the yield (= win percent) is small. The question is why would one sell bonds? One answer is because they don't trust the central bank's promise to buy back the bond (at a fixed price). So there you have it. No trust in FED - no trust in dollar. Of course this is a simplistic...
Fisherman you've been very clear. It's just that there are sometimes that the currency react in the oposite way that logic implies after a news release. That's why I try to stay out of the market when there's a big news release. I'm a newbie, I guess with time I'll fully understand those episodes. Thanks for your time
  • #140,364
  • Sep 8, 2009 2:35pm Sep 8, 2009 2:35pm
Quoting TheFisherman
Yields go up when bond owners sell bonds owned. A bond is considered the safest investment because it's guaranteed by the government an central bank of a country (we're talking about treasuries bonds here - there are corporate bonds also and some times municipal bonds). Alas the yield (= win percent) is small. The question is why would one sell bonds? One answer is because they don't trust the central bank's promise to buy back the bond (at a fixed price). So there you have it. No trust in FED - no trust in dollar. Of course this is a simplistic...
Centrsal bank can always be trusted, they will pay back even if they have to print money, its just the question, what are the dollars worth to be payed back.
It's more like they have to offer higher yields, or the market demands higher yields if currency is weak....
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #140,365
  • Sep 8, 2009 2:36pm Sep 8, 2009 2:36pm
Nice number.

m
  • #140,366
  • Sep 8, 2009 2:37pm Sep 8, 2009 2:37pm
Quoting gatorinla
anyone use the BOOZe indi?

its a great indi mine is usually red...and from California
  • #140,367
  • Sep 8, 2009 2:38pm Sep 8, 2009 2:38pm
Quoting acumen
Nice number.

m
yeah forecast was a bit off!
  • #140,368
  • Sep 8, 2009 2:38pm Sep 8, 2009 2:38pm
Quoting Patience
The yield was going up which usually means less demand for US Treasuries. But because the Auction today was very successful the yield started going back down because of the healthy demand for US Treasuries.

It appears that short term Treasuries are really popular and I've read that China are buyers of short term Treasuries. It's the longer term Treasuries that I think may be the worry (because some people believe inflation may be on the way) and they aren't so popular because it is not as easy to get in and out of them. So let's see how the...
Good explanation too. However, I said this before. If there's a high demand for bonds the USD is likely to go down because of the inflation protection conducted by the bond buyers. You do this when you buy bonds to protect yourself of the currency inflation in which the bonds are issued. Yes, you could get more money if the currency deflates but who wants to take a chance in this circumstances? : USD likely to go into inflation and VERY (and I mean it) VERY good yields at sale. If this move is due to the phenomenon of inflation protection we should see a full retrace of the move in the next days. If not..."the rabbit gets fucked. Proper fucked."
  • #140,369
  • Sep 8, 2009 2:38pm Sep 8, 2009 2:38pm
Considering short @ 4520 as possible retracement level.
Anybody with me?
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #140,370
  • Sep 8, 2009 2:42pm Sep 8, 2009 2:42pm
Quoting Patience
The yield was going up which usually means less demand for US Treasuries. But because the Auction today was very successful the yield started going back down because of the healthy demand for US Treasuries.

It appears that short term Treasuries are really popular and I've read that China are buyers of short term Treasuries. It's the longer term Treasuries that I think may be the worry (because some people believe inflation may be on the way) and they aren't so popular because it is not as easy to get in and out of them. So let's see how the longer...
That's exactly right Pateince. Today is what matters today and the auction sale demand meant higher prices, therefore lower yield.
The effect is more confidence in the dollar, which should have translated into Lower EU rate.
The higher yield trend (as we are seeing the short term trend you show) translates to higher interest rate, for mortgages eg.
The yield is also an indicator of inflationary outlook.
Without getting too lengthy an explanation, we wanted a good demand today, low yield to see a top in the EU. We got it, but the effect would be delayed. We need to see how the other auctions go, and China's appetite for uptake of the longer term bills.
  • #140,371
  • Sep 8, 2009 2:43pm Sep 8, 2009 2:43pm
Quoting unBEARable
yeah forecast was a bit off!
a bit.
  • #140,372
  • Sep 8, 2009 2:45pm Sep 8, 2009 2:45pm
Quoting acumen
a bit.
  • #140,373
  • Sep 8, 2009 2:47pm Sep 8, 2009 2:47pm
Quoting TheFisherman
OH - SHIT! seems we'll see some action after all
when was the release. the link please. that should affect it south.
  • #140,374
  • Sep 8, 2009 2:48pm Sep 8, 2009 2:48pm
Quoting TheFisherman
If there's a high demand for bonds the USD is likely to go down because of the inflation protection conducted by the bond buyers
So, I'm a bond buyer that waits for high yields, I purchase the bond (cheap prize and high rate) anda after that I'b be expecting an apreciation of the curreny. So I did a great deal: purchase a bond with a hig rate and the dollars it'll give me will be more stronG AGAINST OTHER CURRENCIES?? I hope I got the effect right!!!
  • #140,375
  • Sep 8, 2009 2:48pm Sep 8, 2009 2:48pm
Quoting richboy1972
My view is this (fibo...):

100% 1,6033
61,8% 1,4614
50% 1,4181 we are around this today...
38,2% 1,3741
23,6% 1,3202
0% 1,2329

and the weekly chart seems pointing at 61,8%

someone agree with this view?
Someone know why I suggest a long view just some day ago and now I have only short to handle???
I have to do what I think, not what I read !!! ARGHHHHH !!!!
I'll send a bottle of wine to my first voucherer ;-)
  • #140,376
  • Sep 8, 2009 2:50pm Sep 8, 2009 2:50pm
Quoting maurofx
So, I'm a bond buyer that waits for high yields, I purchase the bond (cheap prize and high rate) anda after that I'b be expecting an apreciation of the curreny. So I did a great deal: purchase a bond with a hig rate and the dollars it'll give me will be more stronG AGAINST OTHER CURRENCIES?? I hope I got the effect right!!!
If you're a bond buyer you're in the conservative team. You DO NOT take chances. So what do you do to protect your yield from USD devaluation? You short the USD of course! Get it?
  • #140,377
  • Sep 8, 2009 2:51pm Sep 8, 2009 2:51pm
Quoting Atlast
when was the release. the link please. that should affect it south.
Dunno. Ask Patience. She has the news from some Twitter guy...
  • #140,378
  • Sep 8, 2009 2:54pm Sep 8, 2009 2:54pm
Quoting richboy1972
Someone know why I suggest a long view just some day ago and now I have only short to handle???
I have to do what I think, not what I read !!! ARGHHHHH !!!!
could it be to do with the TF you are trading that screwed up your trade.
  • #140,379
  • Sep 8, 2009 2:55pm Sep 8, 2009 2:55pm
Check out EJ H1. Soooo... easy.
  • #140,380
  • Sep 8, 2009 2:56pm Sep 8, 2009 2:56pm
Quoting TheFisherman
If you're a bond buyer you're in the conservative team. You DO NOT take chances. So what do you do to protect your yield from USD devaluation? You short the USD of course! Get it?
Yes, so I protect the purchase power of my money (in whatever currency it is). but I'll definitly gonna have to read more about this things dude!!! Thanks a lot for yuor help!!!
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