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AUD/USD

  • #3,161
  • Sep 8, 2009 10:28am Sep 8, 2009 10:28am
Certainly some food for thought, thanks for the contributions..... see you next time
  • #3,162
  • Sep 8, 2009 10:29am Sep 8, 2009 10:29am
Quoting ahlamo
I have never looked at it that way. Thank you for this post. I suddenly realized that perhaps, a little math could be used here. I still have to figure out how but your input is very much appreciated.

Thank you!
lets approach through an art perspective , pull the chart aud/nzd cross, say it make higher high and higher low so the trend is up ..ok, when its trending up what the impac on aud/usd and nzd/usd? trades lower or higher? aud/usd : nzd/usd = aud/nzd
  • #3,163
  • Sep 8, 2009 10:33am Sep 8, 2009 10:33am
Quoting shahab8b
it seems nice time to go short again, what do you think?
geez Shahab8b its 3;30 in the morning in sydney got to go to bed now, see you tomorrow!

sorry buddy.

ciao everyone!
  • #3,164
  • Sep 8, 2009 10:36am Sep 8, 2009 10:36am
Quoting ben10
absolutely the markets is us , we can push and pull , fear and greed supply and demand, remember when lehman going to the toilet, price valuation change.
hmmm.... ok, thanks. My thinking behind that is A/J working up over-bought levels without much move up, before sinking lower.

Thanks ben10

fxst
  • #3,165
  • Sep 8, 2009 10:40am Sep 8, 2009 10:40am
Quoting shahab8b
Patience your comments are always great, I cought up last year in EURUSD in late Nov, went short with the trend and just after that the massive retracement happened.
I have some questions from you if you dont mind,
first I notice you are posting SSI from Dailyfx, it seems you have FXCM account, are they good? and do you use their automated signals? I heard they are fairly profitable.
second, is the bank of scotland reprot is a free one or you need to pay,if it's free I appreciate you share the link,
at finally, I'd like to know your idea about...
Thanks for the compliment . I do have an FXCM UK account and I find them to be fine but I'm not a scalper so I can't comment on that aspect e.g. getting your orders filled at the right price when scalping.

I don't use their automated signals. I like to do my own analysis and I like to look at the SSI to see what retail traders are thinking. If I'm thinking the same as them, I get nervous and tend to re-assess my charts etc . I don't trade off the SSI or anything, it's just another tool.

Our company banks with the Bank of Scotland which is why we have access to the report and it is emailed daily for free. I don't know if they would include you on their email list if you don't have an account with them (we also have a currency account). You could try ringing or emailing them to see if you can be included but I don't know what reaction you would get. I don't know if they would be pleased that I'm flashing this report around either.

As for COT I don't follow it anymore. I did for a while but it is so delayed and there are two arguments which I've never had a conclusive answer for. Some people say you should be following what the large traders/speculators are doing and some people will say you should be following the commercial side. Personally I think you should be following what the large traders/specs are doing because the Commercials are just hedging for their clients etc but who knows. FXCM's sentiment index is good enough for me - it's right more than it is wrong and it is published twice a day so it is as up-to-date as you would like.

Hope I covered your questions. Good trades!
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #3,166
  • Sep 8, 2009 11:00am Sep 8, 2009 11:00am
[Our company banks with the Bank of Scotland which is why we have access to the report and it is emailed daily for free. I don't know if they would include you on their email list if you don't have an account with them (we also have a currency account). You could try ringing or emailing them to see if you can be included but I don't know what reaction you would get. I don't know if they would be pleased that I'm flashing this report around either.

As for COT I don't follow it anymore. I did for a while but it is so delayed and there are two arguments which I've never had a conclusive answer for. Some people say you should be following what the large traders/speculators are doing and some people will say you should be following the commercial side. Personally I think you should be following what the large traders/specs are doing because the Commercials are just hedging for their clients etc but who knows. FXCM's sentiment index is good enough for me - it's right more than it is wrong and it is published twice a day so it is as up-to-date as you would like.

Hope I covered your questions. Good trades![/quote]

Thanks Pateints for your detailed answer, I'll try to email them.
but dont forget to share us what they think whenever you feel confortable ;-)
  • #3,167
  • Sep 8, 2009 11:04am Sep 8, 2009 11:04am
Quoting ben10
lets approach through an art perspective , pull the chart aud/nzd cross, say it make higher high and higher low so the trend is up ..ok, when its trending up what the impac on aud/usd and nzd/usd? trades lower or higher? aud/usd : nzd/usd = aud/nzd
aud/usd higher and nzd/usd lower
The Sky is the Limit!
  • #3,168
  • Sep 8, 2009 12:06pm Sep 8, 2009 12:06pm
Quoting shahab8b
Thanks Pateints for your detailed answer


SSI: Retail Traders take Early Profits on the Breakout, Fight the Current Trend
Tuesday, 08 September 2009 18:25:55 GMT
Written by John Kicklighter, Currency Strategist

http://cdn.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1252434950

Intraday Highlight:

EURUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the EURUSD stands at -3.51 as nearly 78% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.78 as 64% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 33.5% lower than yesterday and 51.0% weaker since last week. Short positions are 31.5% higher than yesterday and 79.5% stronger since last week. Open interest is 8.1% stronger than yesterday and 13.5% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more EURUSD gains.
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #3,169
  • Sep 8, 2009 12:43pm Sep 8, 2009 12:43pm
do you think the Aud/Usd is still going up?
Just remember, when you think all is lost, the future remains
  • #3,170
  • Sep 8, 2009 12:49pm Sep 8, 2009 12:49pm
Quoting freddylek
do you think the Aud/Usd is still going up?
I'm still stick to my interpretation of an Ending Diagonal on Daily chart, so we will see 0.78-.79 in 3-4 weeks (may be sooner) it's moving according to the pattern very nicely till now, if goes higher is still in the pattern till 0.88 but after that it's over, so be it my SL
  • #3,171
  • Sep 8, 2009 2:19pm Sep 8, 2009 2:19pm
AUD/USD may be taking a breather soon. A nice pin is forming on the AUD/USD 8hr chart and also the GOLD Daily. As yet, the AUD/JPY has been unable to penetrate its 50 fib. I have started to build a short position.
Attached Images
If there is ever any doubt then there is no doubt.
  • #3,172
  • Sep 8, 2009 2:39pm Sep 8, 2009 2:39pm
AUD/JPY 4hr chart.
Attached Image
If there is ever any doubt then there is no doubt.
  • #3,173
  • Sep 8, 2009 4:00pm Sep 8, 2009 4:00pm
this guy predicted the global financial crisis news out frdiay 4th sept

U.S. Dollar Will Weaken, Currency Crash Possible, Roubini Says
By Sonia Sirletti and Jeffrey Donovan
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/data?p...d=ix4SuWGd1BSY

Sept. 4 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar will weaken and the U.S. risks seeing a crash of the currency unless it does more to control the deficit and reduce debt, said New York University Professor Nouriel Roubini, who predicted the financial crisis.
“If markets were to believe, and I’m not saying it’s likely, that inflation is going to be the route that the U.S. is going to take to resolve this problem, then you could have a crash of the value of the dollar,” Roubini said in an interview today in Cernobbio, Italy. “The value of the dollar over time has to fall on a trade-weighted basis, but not necessarily relative to euro and yen.”
Roubini said he didn’t see a risk of a dollar crash in the “‘short term.” The value of the U.S. currency relative to currencies such as the yen or the euro “cannot change too much compared to current levels because if the dollar were to weaken a lot and the euro strengthen a lot, that’s going to warp any chance for the European economy to recover, same argument as to the yen,” he said.
“Most of the adjustment of the dollar in the future has to occur relative to China, relative to emerging Asia and relative to some of the other commodity exporters in the world, whether these are advanced economies or emerging markets,” he said.
Foreign creditors need assurances that the U.S. will address its deficit, Roubini said.
“Unless in the medium term these issues of fiscal sustainability are addressed, and unless we mop up that excess liquidity from the financial system, eventually the financial markets and the foreign creditors of the United States might get more concerned about the sustainability of the U.S. fiscal deficit and about the U.S. being tempted to use the inflation tax as a way of resolving its private and public debt problems,” he said.



  • #3,174
  • Sep 8, 2009 6:01pm Sep 8, 2009 6:01pm
Quoting ahlamo
aud/usd higher and nzd/usd lower
ok this simple math would do for you:

0.8900/0.7250=
0.8800/0.7150=
0.8700/0.7050=
0.8600/0.6950=

as the aud/usd and nzd/usd going north or trending up whats the value of aud/nzd crosses would be?
  • #3,175
  • Sep 8, 2009 6:06pm Sep 8, 2009 6:06pm
I am waiting 0,8690 - 0,87 to start a short

weekend should lead to a pullback
  • #3,176
  • Sep 8, 2009 6:09pm Sep 8, 2009 6:09pm
Quoting Kristo
AUD/USD may be taking a breather soon. A nice pin is forming on the AUD/USD 8hr chart and also the GOLD Daily. As yet, the AUD/JPY has been unable to penetrate its 50 fib. I have started to build a short position.
i hope so Kristo but i increased my aud/jpy long position as i see the bulls still in control, 79.00 support for me and average positions right now stand @79.79

http://img39.imagefra.me/img/img39/2...lm_872f197.png

good trading to you !
  • #3,177
  • Edited 6:14pm Sep 8, 2009 6:13pm | Edited 6:14pm
Quoting ben10
ok this simple math would do for you:

0.8900/0.7250=
0.8800/0.7150=
0.8700/0.7050=
0.8600/0.6950=

as the aud/usd and nzd/usd going north or trending up whats the value of aud/nzd crosses would be?

i lost you, but from these number it looks like the result is lower?! i guess it would depend on which ones heads higher than the other AUD or NZD. i know there s a positive correlation but i completely lost track of where the NZD came into the conversaation! Also, where does gold come in the picture?
The Sky is the Limit!
  • #3,178
  • Sep 8, 2009 6:24pm Sep 8, 2009 6:24pm
Quoting fammira
I am waiting 0,8690 - 0,87 to start a short

weekend should lead to a pullback
that is a good call Fammira also she is abit strugling on 5 minute chart to climb above 0.8660 my finger is ready
  • #3,179
  • Sep 8, 2009 6:35pm Sep 8, 2009 6:35pm
Earlier than weekend
just speculating
  • #3,180
  • Sep 8, 2009 6:35pm Sep 8, 2009 6:35pm
Quoting ahlamo
i lost you, but from these number it looks like the result is lower?! i guess it would depend on which ones heads higher than the other AUD or NZD. i know there s a positive correlation but i completely lost track of where the NZD came into the conversaation! Also, where does gold come in the picture?
oh dear ! ok i try again when the aud/nzd cross trades higher, the twin sisters aud/usd and nzd/usd should travel lower and vice versa.
dont worry about gold as we talk technical trading of synthetic currencies , please post away on my trade journal as i dont want to disturb this lovely thread with my rubbish
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