Popee83 System

Fiber h4:


Fiber is at the crucial cross-roads of the 23.6 fib. This is the make or break point. :nerd:

Cable h4:


Still waiting for a breach of 61.8 then TP 23.6 fib. Otherwise, still south.

Xau h4:


Just a cross ref. Also at 38.2 fib.


All in all am still bearish in this three. Still anxious to see how all of this plays out in the next few days. Good trading to y'all 2morrow.

Fiber h4:


Fiber still in a stalemate. This levels folk is a cracker!

Cable h4:


Cable also unable to break-through the 61.8 fib.

Xau h4:


Gold surprisingly dipped from 38.2 fib to find support at 76.4 fib.


SPECULATION: Word around here is the whip to be cracked on the US markets after labor day holiday.


Good trading tomorrow. Still short in cable and fiber.

ECB's Mersch Says Current Recovery Not Sustainable
The current economic recovery in the euro zone is not sustainable because it depends on public funds and is not yet supported by private investment and new job creation, ECB Governing Council member Yves Mersch said.

In an interview with Luxembourg daily Wort, to be published on Tuesday, Mersch said that despite higher activity in international trade, only a global rise in demand could make the trend sustainable.

"We should not be overcome with optimism that everything is over by now," the paper quoted Mersch as saying. "There are two explanations proving why the current recovery cannot be sustainable," he said, pointing to the depletion of inventories caused by very low capacity utilization and to fiscal and monetary stimulus that was still necessary to keep the economy going.

"In the U.S. they talk about the beginning of a recovery in the global economy. In Europe, we prefer to speak about the end of the crisis," he said "These messages have something in common — the free-fall of the economy has been slowed, not only on the basis of surveys, but also on the basis of data," he said.

He said that bulging budget deficits as well as excessive liquidity in banks were a concern, but noted the ECB was not yet withdrawing its liquidity measures and warned against raising taxes to fill empty government coffers.

"The danger of a renewed downturn is not yet over," he said. "Firstly we expect that banks will have to make further provisions by the end of the year for rising credit default risk," Mersch said.

He said primarily small banks could have problems, while systemically important ones seemed to be already out of danger. But the key was a sustained rise in global demand.

"Without such a sustainable development of demand there will be no new investment," Mersch said. "Only through this will new jobs be created, and nothing of this has been seen so far," he said.

"At the moment the investment slump is being compensated by public spending. As long as global growth is supported by public help, we cannot talk of sustainable growth," he said.

He also noted the risk of protectionism and financial nationalism as one that could cause a relapse of the recession.

link:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/32547984

Shanghai Shares Plunge on Policy Worries

Shanghai and Hong Kong shares fell as profit-takers took advantage of market anxiety over the mainland government's tightening of fiscal and monetary policies, cashing in gains from recent rallies. http://media.cnbc.com/i/CNBC/Section..._traders_1.jpg

AP

Stock investors watch stock movement at a stock exchange in Chengdu, China.

Stocks retreated across the board on both bourses, including even some financial companies that were expected to report healthy earnings later in the day.
The Shanghai Composite Index fell sharply on, led by banking stocks, after Premier Wen Jiabao said China would keep its monetary policy loose as the economy faces new difficulties, including trouble boosting domestic consumption.
In a downbeat statement published after the market closed on Monday, Wen said Beijing would ensure a sustainable flow of credit and a reasonably sufficient provision of liquidity to support growth.
Traders said Wen's comments cast fresh uncertainty over China's economic recovery, which showed signs of slowing in July after solid improvement in the first half. Such uncertainty might limit the room for stocks to rebound in the near term. At the same time, however, signs of a possibly quicker-than-expected global economic recovery might gain increasing influence over China's stock market, traders said.
"While Wen's comments contained nothing surprising, investors are cautious about the prospects for China's economic recovery," said Gui Haoming, head of research at Shenyin & Wanguo Securities in Shanghai.
“The pace of the global economic recovery will exert increasing influence over China's stock market, although its impact will still be indirect."
Industrial Bank tumbled 6.7 percent to 34.19 yuan after it posted a disappointing 4.9 percent drop in net profit to 6.22 billion yuan ($911 million) in the first half from a year earlier.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng also slumped in afternoon trading.


"The Hong Kong market just followed the fall in mainland stocks as people were anxiously watching the mainland government's next fiscal policy move," said Steve Cheng, associate director at Shenyin Wanguo Securities.
"The tightening of policy is already happening, but the extent of the move isn't something that should cause fear as we see it as just reasonable," he said. Pullback to S&P 930, Dow 8,500: Barros

Nikkei Drifts Lower
Japan's Nikkei average [JP;N225 10497.36 http://media.cnbc.com/i/CNBC/CNBC_Im...hlist_down.gif -83.6894 (-0.79%) http://media.cnbc.com/i/CNBC/CNBC_Im...ltime_icon.gif] closed lower, hit by profit-taking after surging 3.4 percent the day before, with investors finding few reasons to buy actively before Japan's Aug. 30 election and U.S. economic data.


Exporters lost ground after leading Monday's rally, while Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group and other banks fell in the wake of losses in their U.S. peers.

link:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/32545804

This is the most important post I have seen anywhere on the net this year. I don't believe CNBC were so kind to post this. If one knows what this really means .... Larry Livermore's pdf should give you the clues ....

Winners & Losers Since March 9th Low
Stocks in the S&P 500 have posted an average gain of 83.4% since the market low on March 9th, according to data compiled by CNBC. As the stock market continues to gain steam, with all major US indices higher by 46% or more since the market rebound began, companies in the S&P 500 have outperformed the average gains of the Dow and Nasdaq 100 components.

Among the major equity indexes, the Nasdaq Composite [COMP 2023.16http://media.cnbc.com/i/CNBC/CNBC_Im...tchlist_up.gif 5.18(+0.26%)] is currently leading the rally with a gain of 60% from its close on March 9th, followed by the S&P 500 [.SPX1027.83http://media.cnbc.com/i/CNBC/CNBC_Im...tchlist_up.gif 2.26 (+0.22%)] and Dow Jones Industrial Average [.DJIA9538.61 http://media.cnbc.com/i/CNBC/CNBC_Im...tchlist_up.gif 29.33 (+0.31%)], up 53% and 46%, respectively.

In addition, the Russell 2000 index, a measure of small-cap companies, has seen a jump of 70% since the market's multi-year low.

Despite a sharp rebound in the Nasdaq 100, up 58% from its March low, companies in the S&P 500 have outperformed tech companies in terms of average gains. Indeed, a review of the S&P shows that half of its components have posted gains north of a median return of 60% since the March low, compared to a median gain of 59% for companies in the Nasdaq 100, and a median value of 51% for the stocks in the Dow.

The following tables portray some of the winners and losers from the market's rally. It appears that investors bet that many financials stocks may have been oversold in early March. Looking forward, many analysts have recently said that we are due for a pullback, indicating some of the biggest gainers might not extend their runs. Others, however, believe that the rally may continue.

>> Best S&P 500 Sectors since March 9th
S&P 500

 

1. Index components overall average gain since March 9th: 84%
2. Percent of companies trading up : 98%
3. Average gain: 86%
4. Percent of companies trading down: 2%
5. Average loss: 7%
6. S&P 500 YTD % Change: 15%

Nasdaq 100

1. Index components overall average gain since March 9th: 70%
2. Percent of companies trading up: 95%
3. Average Gain: 74%
4. Percent of companies trading down: 5%
5. Average Loss: 5%
6. Nasdaq 100 YTD % Change: 36%

Dow Jones Industrial Average

1. Index components overall average gain since March 9th: 69%
2. Percent of companies trading up: 100%
3. Dow YTD % Change: 9%

link:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/32552169/

My charts at COB.

Fiber h4:


This baby still trading withing narrow range. Am patient though, waiting for the pull back. The 38.2 S fib giving me a run for my money though .....

Cable h4:


Cable dipped to 100.0 S fib. At least this one has been moving

Gold h4:


A good cross-reference for correlations between fiber and cable ... Gold has seen dribbling PA locked in between the 61.8 and 38.2 S fibs...


Still waiting for the pull-back to 138.2 fib S. Two days now past and no much action. Some good news today but not much to trigger gains. Today something fascinating happened. DJIA touched the 9600 mark and retreated as if it were a plaque number. I saw this first hand.

So, good luck and trade well. Bearish as always

Hopefully we can all see the following classic failed test ... (denoted by vertical lines)

Fiber h4:


Cable h4:


Xau h4:


Hence trade well.

Look at what DT has posted .... not bad at all ... here now is one smart guy around ......Shake the glitter ... a real gambler THIS ONE ... knows when to HOLD, FOLD,WALK AWAY and when to RUN....

Here is a clearer fib picture ...

cable daily


Note how it is turning around the 38.2 main fib(green) ... If this baby tanks .. we are looking at 38.2 fib retracement(maroon) for some support ..:nerd:

Fiber h4:


Fiber managed to pull-back to 50.0 S fib. Not much action as of yet.

Cable h4:


Cable did the god job today ... dives all the way to 123.6 S fib. Now we have entered the pull-back territory ... we wait and see .. but I think not. Still hoping for a test of 138.2 fib.

Xau h4:


Still locked in between 38.2 S fib and 61.8 S fib.


At least some movement at long last. Closed open trades Earlier on I managed to spot some important failed tests on the three pairs and posted them, hope we all got these and dived south!

So, I suppose the next few days should give us the direction. DJIA seems to be loosing steam slowly ...

Sorry couldn't post for last few days .. was away.. Anyhow, here are my charts as of Friday's close:

Fiber h4:


Alot of bullish talk on this one ... but am still bearish ...

Cable h4:


Cable had a nice squeeze but still in bear teritory.. LOL .. but hope all saw that one coming .. that is unless you were swing trading like me ...

Xau h4:


seems to correlate with fiber alot ..


NB: Intergrate vol. in your analysis and observe how vol. behaves once it hits a fib level. Av illustrated a few on the charts ..

Good luck..

Fiber h4:


Been waiting for a very long time for fiber to pull south ... now it is locked in No-man's land.

Cable h4:


Cable dipped to 123.6 once again ... waiting for 138.2 and then I can decide next short term direction ... Currently cable locked in bear territory i.e unable to break 100.0 fib

NB: If cable pulls north from 138.2 and breaches 100.00 convincingly, then we look at 61.8 for confirmation ... I can as well draw new fibs ... But if 138.2 is broken like straw .. then it is all bearish ..

Xau h4:


The correlation seems to be waning due to risk aversion ... USD and Gold considered safe havens especially now when stocks are selling-off ...

So, good luck tomorrow, and trade well ..

One good thing about politicians is that they give away much when they say less .. Obama is kinda' Kenyan-American .. so i think he might just be more or less like our guys back here in the political front less the corruption ..

So, Obama hasn't commended as of yet on the NFP. If I remember well, last month he was optimistic about the July NFP report .. he even went public.

Now. so far he has said nothing. Possibly a bad number is in the cooking ..(I could be wrong) for the August NFP.

Should we get a bad number on Friday .. then this could easily plummet fiber to 138.2 fib south and confirm bear trend earlier projected for cable if it plunges to turn around at 161.8 fib = 1.5907


Good trading and today we watch GBP PMI and ADP Non-farm ... pointers but not the real deal .. Friday's NFP is the Key for September trading ...

Just saw gold rocket out of sight today ... .. risk aversion setting in the mkts ... I bet the VIX no. of yesterday had all to do with it ...

Correlation waning slowly folks ...

Xau h4:

I really think this should be re-posted ..from Direct-Trade ..

Daily:


h4:

Fiber h4:


Fiber paused at 38.2 fib .. am short for a quick 40-50 pips dip. Check out the volumes .. I interprate vol. as indicated by the vertical line ..

Cable h4:


Demand for cable waning too..I bet today we should see some more side-ways PA or shallow dip ... Vol. indicate distribution during Asian session

Xau h4:


Gold will pause today or pull-back a little ... 2morrows NFP could possibly send gold to the moon ...


The NFP report tomorrow will set the pace for sept. trading in both equities and fx. As usual, all new traders if need to play news/fundamentals ... do on demo ..

Here are my charts for Monday ..

Fiber h4:


Fiber has potential to re-test 23.6 this Monday.The ultimate measure should be Daily R at 1.4405. Currently this baby has broken out of 38.2 fib.

Cable h4:


Cable too set to re-test 76.4 for the better part of the day. However, it is important to note that cable is still in bear territory and this re-test should give good sell signal if cable turns south.

I have attached a good pdf on fibs and candle patterns ... it is some work-load though .. Otherwise, I hope you find it useful ..

Good luck and trade well ...

Seems like 'big brother' has plans to inflate a whole new class of bubble ..
New Exotic Investments Are Emerging on Wall Street
After the mortgage business imploded last year, Wall Street investment banks began searching for another big idea to make money. They think they may have found one.
http://media.cnbc.com/j/CNBC/Section...phic.small.jpg

The bankers plan to buy “life settlements,” life insurance policies that ill and elderly people sell for cash — $400,000 for a $1 million policy, say, depending on the life expectancy of the insured person. Then they plan to “securitize” these policies, in Wall Street jargon, by packaging hundreds or thousands together into bonds. They will then resell those bonds to investors, like big pension funds, who will receive the payouts when people with the insurance die.

The earlier the policyholder dies, the bigger the return — though if people live longer than expected, investors could get poor returns or even lose money.

Either way, Wall Street would profit by pocketing sizable fees for creating the bonds, reselling them and subsequently trading them. But some who have studied life settlements warn that insurers might have to raise premiums in the short term if they end up having to pay out more death claims than they had anticipated.
The idea is still in the planning stages. But already “our phones have been ringing off the hook with inquiries,” says Kathleen Tillwitz, a senior vice president at DBRS, which gives risk ratings to investments and is reviewing nine proposals for life-insurance securitizations from private investors and financial firms, including Credit Suisse .
“We’re hoping to get a herd stampeding after the first offering,” said one investment banker not authorized to speak to the news media.
In the aftermath of the financial meltdown, exotic investments dreamed up by Wall Street got much of the blame. It was not just subprime mortgage securities but an array of products — credit-default swaps , structured investment vehicles, collateralized debt obligations — that proved far riskier than anticipated.
The debacle gave financial wizardry a bad name generally, but not on Wall Street. Even as Washington debates increased financial regulation , bankers are scurrying to concoct new products.



link:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/32707038

.............
LOL ...