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  • #139,281
  • Sep 6, 2009 9:51am Sep 6, 2009 9:51am
Quoting trading801
hi all,

i just released an article on risk aversion.

hope this sheds some light.

http://www.thegeekknows.com/2009/09/...ex-market.html

As you all know, i can no longer post at FF news, i hope you regularly visit my thread as i update there and also spread the word around so that i can share with more..

thanks!!!
really very simple and effective description thankyou
  • #139,282
  • Sep 6, 2009 11:14am Sep 6, 2009 11:14am
I see what you mean, there was this stupid option that only lets your buddies to PM you, I uncheked that now

Quoting trading801
anyway thank you for your kind support.. i am happy to have it!

hope to see you often at my thread..

p/s i did try to pm you b4 but found out u do not have pm on !
Its all in the mind.
  • #139,283
  • Sep 6, 2009 11:27am Sep 6, 2009 11:27am
To all the USD haters, who is going to save euro?

romania
slovakia
slovenia
poland
malta
latvia
hungary
estonia
cypres
bulgaria

these countries? Please wake up and smell the coffee. EUR is the biggest bubble that is poised to burst just like oil did.

I do not trade with this personal view of mine however these countries are major liabilities no one can deny. Euro does not only mean germany or france or uk (not including their currency). So, please when you pump EUR and trash USD look at the European Union in perspective. Especially middle eastern trader's bias here on this site is totally politics nothing else.

Cheers, and have a good sunday.
  • #139,284
  • Sep 6, 2009 11:35am Sep 6, 2009 11:35am
EUR-USD is still in Wave 3 on WEEKLY chart. Last week's small range (201 pips) should not be taken as a sign of weakness but rather consolidation.

With LABOR DAY behind us summer is over. The professional traders will return to trade this week and we should see an increase in volume with daily trading ranges widening considerably.

For Monday (LABOR DAY): Market should move some during European session. I would not count on any major moves. Usually on holidays like these we can end up with a doji for the day.

See charts.
Attached Images
  • #139,285
  • Sep 6, 2009 11:46am Sep 6, 2009 11:46am
I agree somewhat with this message. A lot of USD bashing is political in nature, both from inside and outside. There are few folks who would rather go out buy north korean won and trash USD. Last I heard a certain pinhead from Libya will "cancel" Switzerland and swissie consequently

But well who am I, wait till these greenshoots dry out, wait till the risk aversions rears its head again and then we will see the romance of the USD come back. And the first to embrace my beloved buck will be the sheiks and my friends from the other side of the pond.

Quoting Levent
To all the USD haters, who is going to save euro?

romania
slovakia
slovenia
poland
malta
latvia
hungary
estonia
cypres
bulgaria

these countries? Please wake up and smell the coffee. EUR is the biggest bubble that is poised to burst just like oil did.

I do not trade with this personal view of mine however these countries are major liabilities no one can deny. Euro does not only mean germany or france or uk (not including their currency). So, please when you pump EUR and trash USD look at the European Union in perspective. Especially middle...
Its all in the mind.
  • #139,286
  • Sep 6, 2009 11:46am Sep 6, 2009 11:46am
Quoting GulfCoastPip
I'm not sure how many of you actually do this, but it's something I do at the end of every week.

> I review all winning and losing trades
> Why did I enter when I did, did I follow my "system"
> If I lost the trade, why did I lose the trade? Did I enter to late? Did I exit to late?
> If I won the trade, could I have stayed in the trade longer? Why did I exit when I did?
> Did I let any trade run out of control? If so why?
> Learn from your all of your trades, both winners and losers.
Very smart. I also thinks it important to have snapshots of your chart during entry and then during exit. I use a trade-log program designed for forex that keeps me disciplined. Excel and copying/inserting images should work if you're consistent enough. Personally I found I'd lag behind on my logs when I did it that way (Especially during losing trades hehe)
  • #139,287
  • Sep 6, 2009 11:49am Sep 6, 2009 11:49am
Quoting Levent
To all the USD haters
It's not a matter of hate. That's too harsh a word.


A Quick History Lesson

  1. The U.S. Post Service was established in 1775. So they've had 234 years to make it work. It is broke.
  2. Social Security was established in 1935. They've had 74 years to make it work. It is broke.
  3. Fannie Mae was established in 1938. They've had 71 years to make it work. It is broke.
  4. Freddie Mac was established in 1970. They've had 39 years to make it work. It is broke.
  5. The War on Poverty started in 1964. They've had 45 years to make it work. About $1 trillion of taxpayer money is confiscated each year and transferred to “the poor.” It hasn't worked.
  6. Medicare and Medicaid were established in 1965. They've had 44 years to make it work. They are both broke.
  7. AMTRAK was established in 1970. They've had 39 years to make it work. Last year it had to be bailed out and today continues running at a loss.
  8. $700 billion bailout of 2008. It has yet to create a single new private-sector job.
  9. Cash for Clunkers in 2009 went broke after 80% of the cars purchased turned out to be produced by foreign companies.

The U.S. government has a 100% failure rate.

Is it any wonder why we are in favor of less, not more, government?

http://www.caseyresearch.com/displayCdd.php?id=216

Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #139,288
  • Edited 12:20pm Sep 6, 2009 12:09pm | Edited 12:20pm
Quoting acumen
in my opinion he isn't saying this pair won't go higher...

he is saying... the higher it goes the worse off the US and others will be long term.

no one knows.

there is still lots of capital in the US that hasn't been put to work and if they feel they are missing the boat they will push this higher.

if the market can sustain the current rally until jobs catch up... even a move a little down but not a significant move... we will see a currency crisis by 2012... sooner possibly.

What form will it take... who knows... but it won't be pretty....
I'm agreeing also. but we are much closer to the ground today then last years high. and as all the experts are saying there is plenty of money on the sideline. but they assume that money will enter long. we know what happens when we assume. those guys could short u.s. markets also or buy gold/silver. this ain't you mom and pops recession. it may not even be grandpas depression. the world is tied together at the ankles. the only economy that is doing well as far as i can tell is s. Korea. the rest is bs and hype by the used car salesmen and the media they employ.

Pryor to this downturn there were spikes in oil. no where near this bad of the last 9 years. these spikes were much shorter and less strong comparable to share of GDP. i don't recall the report or university that did the study. but they said those spike in the past were a major contributor to recessions of the past. they also said it takes two years for economy to work through these shorter term comparable oil spikes. this report was done years ago way before 2008. we have never been here before.
round 2 with mom and pops and smaller banks are about to start. many of these people have already spent their personal savings to stay afloat. meaning they are robbing savings because business sucks. when they run out of savings that's even less spent in economy. and more and more are closing each day. laying off workers and leaving the bank holding the bag. since business sucks their books will suck and even the ones with their head above water will have problems renewing balloon business loans.

dont forget about cc defaults. and when economy does come back most will have bad credit 7 years after. this will limit recovery. so will the tightening of credit to a1 credit risk.

lack of spending from unemployed people is a self sustaining prophesy. jobs are the key without one more foreclosures by A1 credit borrowers that lose their job. its already started. at some point in time all trees fall..

I'm agreeing but i think objects in the mirror may be closer then they appear. this will get rough. this candle was lit many years ago. we have been broke for years and nobody told us. a big ponzi scheme where you need fresh meat because the players stopped playing. well their is no fresh meat out their.. get a mule..
I'm long mules, apple carts, salt peter,pitchforks, mason jars, candle wax, strong military govs, K-Y, spam, and corn husk. We have never been here before. every action has a reaction. most people still dont get it. they will get it when the door closes on the box car. then it too late.

this could go either way. and even if the better of the 2 it will not rosy. we are not in kansas anymore. at least for the middle class. some upper class will find themselfs in a new world.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #139,289
  • Sep 6, 2009 12:33pm Sep 6, 2009 12:33pm
Quoting Patience
It's not a matter of hate. That's too harsh a word.



A Quick History Lesson [list][*]The U.S. Post Service was established in 1775. So they've had 234 years to make it work. It is broke.[*]Social Security was established in 1935. They've had 74 years to make it work. It is broke.[*]Fannie Mae was established in 1938. They've had 71 years to make it work. It is broke.[*]Freddie Mac was established in 1970. They've had 39 years to make it work. It is broke.[*]The War on Poverty started in 1964. They've had 45 years to make it work....
yep and when we quit bailing out the world. we will have several trillian dollars to spend on ourselfs each year. otheres will have to fund 100% of their own military and tax their people accordingly. it gives pay as you go a whole new meaning.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #139,290
  • Sep 6, 2009 12:33pm Sep 6, 2009 12:33pm
Quoting sophiaphia
bought - 1.4205
bought friday, selling 2nd 1/2 @ 1.4381-1.44
stay over .43 so many trapped now
why keep bashing the US? - so much negativity not good for you, just as bad as conspiracy theorists (trade what you see not what you think?! hmmmm)

disclaimer *the USD is dead for now, agreed.
----- Dragonfly out in the sun you know what I mean, don't you know
  • #139,291
  • Sep 6, 2009 2:04pm Sep 6, 2009 2:04pm
Quoting gatorinla
I'm long mules, apple carts, salt peter,pitchforks, mason jars, candle wax, strong military govs, K-Y, spam, and corn husk.
K-Y? Surely that is a luxury...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #139,292
  • Sep 6, 2009 2:27pm Sep 6, 2009 2:27pm
Quoting The Fool
K-Y? Surely that is a luxury...

Nope, helps you see more clients per day so I've heard!!
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #139,293
  • Sep 6, 2009 2:35pm Sep 6, 2009 2:35pm
Quoting Turveyd
Nope, helps you see more clients per day so I've heard!!
That's sick! BUT .... that's funny!
  • #139,294
  • Sep 6, 2009 2:37pm Sep 6, 2009 2:37pm
Quoting GulfCoastPip
That's sick! BUT .... that's funny!

In these hard times, its also true!!
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #139,295
  • Sep 6, 2009 2:37pm Sep 6, 2009 2:37pm
Quoting gatorinla
yep and when we quit bailing out the world. we will have several trillian dollars to spend on ourselfs each year. otheres will have to fund 100% of their own military and tax their people accordingly. it gives pay as you go a whole new meaning.
pay as you go. howling.

this is so true.

m
  • #139,296
  • Sep 6, 2009 2:52pm Sep 6, 2009 2:52pm
Quoting Patience
The U.S. Post Service was established in 1775. So they've had 234 years to make it work. It is broke.....

The U.S. government has a 100% failure rate.
Oh, poo poo, Patience, poo poo. I thought understatement was the quintessential British trait.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #139,297
  • Sep 6, 2009 2:53pm Sep 6, 2009 2:53pm
Quoting sophiaphia
bought friday, selling 2nd 1/2 @ 1.4381-1.44
stay over .43 so many trapped now
why keep bashing the US? - so much negativity not good for you, just as bad as conspiracy theorists (trade what you see not what you think?! hmmmm)

disclaimer *the USD is dead for now, agreed.
How old are you?

It's fallen 40% since 2001 compared to other currencies.

It's been dying.

It will ride again... the cycle will come full circle or countries will fall... hint - the big ones take longer to fall.

Countries won't fall... it's a slow process.

m
  • #139,298
  • Sep 6, 2009 2:57pm Sep 6, 2009 2:57pm
Quoting The Fool
Oh, poo poo, Patience, poo poo. I thought understatement was the quintessential British trait.
I'm a Kiwi
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #139,299
  • Sep 6, 2009 3:05pm Sep 6, 2009 3:05pm
Quoting Patience
I'm a Kiwi
OK. I'm not sure what the quintessential trait is there...I'm sure its quite enviable. Cheers!
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #139,300
  • Sep 6, 2009 3:13pm Sep 6, 2009 3:13pm
Quoting The Fool
OK. I'm not sure what the quintessential trait is there...I'm sure its quite enviable. Cheers!
I don't know either - been in London for 17 years. Now I know you are a very intelligent gentleman so tell me, what's going to happen when this $hit hits the fan?

The importance of this story is that it confirms that a new wave of big trouble is headed for our economy… hundreds of billions of dollars worth of defaulting commercial real estate loans. The problem is not just that the big developers and property owners are going to sink under the weight of their obligations, but that commercial real estate loans are highly securitized and make up big chunks of the portfolios of insurance companies, banks, mutual funds, and other financial institutions.

Once again, the U.S. government is faced with a “too-big-to-fail” situation. How are they going to handle it? Can they really do another massive bailout? What will that do to the dollar? Will that be the straw that breaks the back of foreign dollar holders? All those questions and many more will be resolved in the very near future.

http://www.caseyresearch.com/displayCdd.php?id=215
Nothing worth having is easy.
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