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  • #381
  • Sep 5, 2009 8:38am Sep 5, 2009 8:38am
Quoting Chris_B
Ok....back to Nitro...original plan...

The only difference is the brick size for me...

Watch my chart...it seems a surgical operation

I know...Nitro is with 10ticks per brick

But with 5ticks per brick it seems to be more accurate...and very similar to C4 (but with less noise).

In fact i was not searching for 2 brick reversals...but for larger movements...watching the Lwma (setted at 10) and watching PA moving... and all this just a couple of minutes after the news times

What do you think??
You and a few others are taking this idea in a very good direction. I personally have found only two things of value from the duplicitous kb and his original thread:

1) Renko blocks are a useful tool

2) Trading In The Zone is an excellent book

Everything else said in that thread is open to question (block size, R/R, etc.)

Keep up the good work,

Lou
Old Benjamin was right
  • #382
  • Sep 5, 2009 9:44am Sep 5, 2009 9:44am
Quoting Lou G
You and a few others are taking this idea in a very good direction. I personally have found only two things of value from the duplicitous kb and his original thread:

1) Renko blocks are a useful tool

2) Trading In The Zone is an excellent book

Everything else said in that thread is open to question (block size, R/R, etc.)

Keep up the good work,

Lou
Thanks... now we have this thread to continue to evolve... and it is looking very promising. I am particularly impressed with observations/comments this past week with regards to spotting patterns, and maybe using 5 bar charts alongside the 10 bar ones. I still like the 10 bar for a 'bigger picture' look, but see great potential for limiting stop-losses using the 5 bar.
******************* I'd rather make money than be right.
  • #383
  • Sep 5, 2009 10:11am Sep 5, 2009 10:11am
Scartree,

There is no need to leave the thread. That punk Artov claimed I was a scammer on the thread that is in the bin. I called him out to the carpet and he must of realized he had nothing to substantiate his claims about me, since I have seen no reply to my request. The guy is all thunder and no lighting.

Your input is very good on this thread and I would hate to see you ran off by this guy.

So please hang in there. There is good stuff on this thread and the thread op is doing a great job on keeping this clean as possible.

Artov, I am waiting for you to come and get me..............

Moving forward guys.

Lohad - From Wisconsin.
  • #384
  • Sep 5, 2009 10:36am Sep 5, 2009 10:36am
asdf, I have decided that I was a little harsh in my criticism of your chart analysis. I have had good results in consistently capturing pips with the 3 elements of market timing, price momentum and correlation. However the concepts you have presented should be an essential part of anyone's trading, and you have presented it very well. So please carry on.

I had an interesting week. I only trade the E/J. I thought I would try something different and decided to put the C4 setup alongside the nitro charts for E/J, G/J and A/J. I wanted to experiment with the ability of C4 to get earlier signals, but use the nitro charts to confirm trend and correlation. Sorry if this is getting away from pure nitro, but I did end the week with 9 consecutive wins.

I'm a big fan of trendline breaks and only use trend lines which connect magnitude 3 swing points (otherwise known as fractals). If you are familiar with Tom Demark, you will know what I mean. As a general rule, if Trix and the scalper candles give a valid signal, (on C4) and provided you have good price momentum, and a candle has closed on the other side of a TD trend line break, together with being in the same direction as the prevailing trend, and there is pair correlation on nitro- then this is a very high probability setup on the opening of the next 5 minute candle. Do wait for retracement if price starts to run away. And of course, as asdf would agree with, make sure you are not about to hit an obvious S/R level.

On that subject my general rule is this. If I am going long and I am below a previous and recent high, traditional TA would say, wait until you can confirm either a respect for or violation of the high. So it will either bounce down and form a double top, or it will punch through and confirm on the candle close.

All I would say in scalping terms is that one shouldn't have hard and fast rules. If price is moving slowly with little energy up to the recent high, then I would tend to wait. I am assuming there is no imminent news announcement on the horizon. Obviously the market is hesitant and undecided. But if you can feel price really pumping, my experience tells me to take the trade before it reaches the high because I know in most cases it will go straight through. And if it's got that much upwards energy you can have a tighter stop, so even if it goes against you, you will sustain a small loss.

I guess that was the real point I was trying to make before, that analysis is useful, but be prepared to modify it quickly if the situation changes or ignore it completely if the movement of price is telling you something else. I know asdf, you will say that these rules apply to all time frames, but I, as well as many other traders, believe that chart patterns and S/R levels are more robust on higher time frames than lower ones. So on a scalping timeframe I'm more attuned to price movement and momentum.

I hope I have been constructive with my comments.
  • #385
  • Sep 5, 2009 12:01pm Sep 5, 2009 12:01pm
Quoting SlushFund
I guess that was the real point I was trying to make before, that analysis is useful, but be prepared to modify it quickly if the situation changes or ignore it completely if the movement of price is telling you something else....
No worries, Slush. Healthy debate is, in my opinion, a vital part of learning. There is nothing in your post that I disagree with. And you bring up many excellent points that haven't been mentioned. First and foremost, S/R (or anything for that matter) on larger fractals is more important than on smaller fractals. And second, and probably one of the most difficult things for a trader to learn, I highlighted in your post -- adaptability. It takes a lot of practice to get to that true "trade what you see" level where you have no bias and can switch from long to short or short to long as soon as price action dictates. That is something I still struggle with.

By the way, great job on the nine straight wins. I would put you in that group with DaveW as ones who could offer some real insight as to how successful scalps play out: how fast are you in and out of the market, how much drawdown (if any) do you typically endure, and what signs do you look for that tell you to get out. You both are quite good at scalping. Thanks again for your contributions.

(By the way, I've heard many great things about Demark, though I've never studied his teachings in depth. Maybe I'll bump him up to the top of my list.)
  • #386
  • Sep 5, 2009 12:57pm Sep 5, 2009 12:57pm
Quoting 4xStar
The whiner has been banned from this thread .. don't throw the baby out with the bathwater, scartree. All whiners will be banned from this thread .. and I need to figure out how to delete their posts if that is possible.
Stick around, soon it will be just us, the whiners will find somewhere else to whine & complain about their fate in life.

EDIT: Looks like I can't delete posts, but soon it will be buried, everyone just please make liberal use of your iggy buttons.
We are moving in a very positive .. and lucrative... direction here thanks to...
4x and crew,
I have followed this group since the origination of Edge's C4 thread. There is so much value that I have recieved from the very beginning that all I have to say is how grateful I am to the people who have moved in a POSITIVE direction to make our trading the best it can be using this method. I have been working it from the start and I am very impressed with the direction this is going in terms of trading.
Keep it coming guys!!
I am looking forward to next week.
  • #387
  • Edited 5:54pm Sep 5, 2009 5:35pm | Edited 5:54pm
Quoting asdf
Chris,

Your chart is an excellent example of how using price action alone is much more efficient and risk averse than using indicators....
Hello Sir,

Nice to see somebody with some experience in the futures markets on here However if I may provide my opinion in relation to your analysis.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: nitro1.jpg Size: 96 KB

Chart One - 5Pip Renko: As the chart Illustrates above, this is how I see it. There is no real "down trend" occuring, it's simply chop and then some news related mess.


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: nitro2.jpg Size: 69 KB

Chart Two - 1Min Candles w/ 5Pip Renko overlaid: This is a copy of where your trendlines are placed on the Renko chart. I don't think these can be considered trendlines.. Look at the second one, it's not a trendline it's simply news time mess. They are no indication of anything occuring.


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: nitro3.jpg Size: 112 KB

Chart Three - 5Pip Renko vs. 1Min Candles: This chart is the clearest illustration of what happened, sideways chop followed by news time noise, it literally means nothing. No way could you predict with any certainty whatsoever what was going to happen here. Trades should have been only considered after the green ractangle at the very least.


Aside from this, there are obviously other MASSIVE problems that occur at times like these - When you are live you get slipped, get requoted, widened spread etc etc.

Don't get me wrong, I think PA and SR are the only way this C4 or whatever will work and I have agreed with the majority of what you posted before, just looking for your opinion in relation to these points.

Trade well,
Jig
  • #388
  • Sep 5, 2009 10:06pm Sep 5, 2009 10:06pm
Quoting Jigsaw
Trade well,
Jig
Your sig line is from one of my favorite poems .. and the lines I remember often while learning to trade forex these past months are these:

If you can make one heap of all your winnings
And risk it on one turn of pitch-and-toss,
And lose, and start again at your beginnings
And never breath a word about your loss;

It's probably worth it to show the whole poem for those unfamilar with it .. I think nearly everyone on this thread will find a couple of lines they relate to.

IF by Rudyard Kipling


If you can keep your head when all about you
Are losing theirs and blaming it on you;
If you can trust yourself when all men doubt you,
But make allowance for their doubting too;
If you can wait and not be tired by waiting,
Or, being lied about, don't deal in lies,
Or, being hated, don't give way to hating,
And yet don't look too good, nor talk too wise;

If you can dream - and not make dreams your master;
If you can think - and not make thoughts your aim;
If you can meet with triumph and disaster
And treat those two imposters just the same;
If you can bear to hear the truth you've spoken
Twisted by knaves to make a trap for fools,
Or watch the things you gave your life to broken,
And stoop and build 'em up with wornout tools;

If you can make one heap of all your winnings
And risk it on one turn of pitch-and-toss,
And lose, and start again at your beginnings
And never breath a word about your loss;
If you can force your heart and nerve and sinew
To serve your turn long after they are gone,
And so hold on when there is nothing in you
Except the Will which says to them: "Hold on";

If you can talk with crowds and keep your virtue,
Or walk with kings - nor lose the common touch;
If neither foes nor loving friends can hurt you;
If all men count with you, but none too much;
If you can fill the unforgiving minute
With sixty seconds' worth of distance run -
Yours is the Earth and everything that's in it,
And - which is more - you'll be a Man my son!
******************* I'd rather make money than be right.
  • #389
  • Sep 5, 2009 10:17pm Sep 5, 2009 10:17pm
Quoting Jigsaw
there are obviously other MASSIVE problems that occur at times like these
I think the answer is simply that any kind of technical trading goes out the window during major news events such as NFP and interest rate announcements. That would be true for any trading methodology.
  • #390
  • Sep 5, 2009 10:43pm Sep 5, 2009 10:43pm
Quoting Jigsaw
Hello Sir,

Nice to see somebody with some experience in the futures markets on here However if I may provide my opinion in relation to your analysis.

Attachment
Chart One - 5Pip Renko: As the chart Illustrates above, this is how I see it. There is no real "down trend" occuring, it's simply chop and then some news related mess.


Attachment
Chart Two - 1Min Candles w/ 5Pip Renko overlaid: This is a copy of where your trendlines are placed on the Renko chart. I don't think these...
Jigsaw,

Thanks for pointing that out. You're absolutely right. I was not following it real time and just assumed that if he made the trades that he made, then it must have been somewhat normal trading conditions. I was also looking at his chart as is. All that stuff goes out the window when trading the news -- that's just a "be quick or be dead" environment. Your analysis is great. If you have any good price action tips or charts, I would be very interested. Thanks again.

asdf
  • #391
  • Edited Sep 6, 2009 12:55am Sep 5, 2009 11:59pm | Edited Sep 6, 2009 12:55am
Now although what is happening technically on a M1 chart during NFP is pretty meaningless, take a look at the H4 chart. This is where the Big Dogs are. The banks and institutions that have the power to move the markets. They have no interest in a 5 minute chart. We have an interesting confluence of events here. Although there was a big spike on the 4 hour candle during NFP, it still respected the first trendline. Now we have price above the 61.8 level and if it also breaks the second trendline, it is likely that price will continue up. A break of the 61.8 often signals continuation. However, price is now only about 30 pips away from a major supply trendline on the daily chart.

As I said before technicals have greater validity on higher time frames. Does this all have an impact if I see a short signal on a M5 chart. Absolutely not. A microtrend of the H4 chart has no real bearing on trading at this level.

A good general rule in multi time frame analysis is to disregard any time frame that is more than X4 - X6 time periods away. So if you are trading a M5 chart then 6 periods away is the M30 timeframe. To take trades on the M5 in line with the prevailing trend on the M30 is fine. Trading a M15 and H1 with a X4 time factor also works. But trading a M5 or M15 in the direction of a H4 makes no sense if you are scalping for a few pips.

If the tide is slowly going out over a period of hours it doesn't stop you surfing the waves coming in.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurjpy_trend.gif Size: 25 KB
  • #392
  • Sep 6, 2009 7:46am Sep 6, 2009 7:46am
Quoting Jigsaw

Aside from this, there are obviously other MASSIVE problems that occur at times like these - When you are live you get slipped, get requoted, widened spread etc etc.

Don't get me wrong, I think PA and SR are the only way this C4 or whatever will work and I have agreed with the majority of what you posted before, just looking for your opinion in relation to these points.

Trade well,
Jig
Hi Jig and welcome to the thread...

Your observations on live trading I think are right...my fear is that in live the executions are not so easy as in demo...that is the big problem (it can depend on what broker you use)...

But what you say in the first image is opinable...you say that it was an "untradable" moment... In demo i've traded it...i've not watched trendlines or other...just following what PA was doing and observing the movement of PA...because all happened in about 5 minutes... ona 5M chart yes...it was very untradable but with renko it becomes tradable, and this is a great advantage of renko...but all depends from the broker and speed in executions...
Probably in the next weeks i will try with real money and micro lots...to see if there is a big difference with demo.
Market is like a puzzle, YOU have to fit the pieces!!
  • #393
  • Sep 6, 2009 8:18am Sep 6, 2009 8:18am
So what are, in your opinion, the best sources to determine news times or periods?

Is the FF calendar reliable enough?
  • #394
  • Sep 6, 2009 9:03am Sep 6, 2009 9:03am
Quoting 4xStar
Your sig line is from one of my favorite poems .. and the lines I remember often while learning to trade forex these past months are these:...
Hey there ,

Yes indeed it's a great poem. I don't know about putting all my forex winnings on a game of pitch and toss but other than that it's really good .

Quoting SlushFund
I think the answer is simply that any kind of technical trading goes out the window during major news events such as NFP and interest rate announcements. That would be true for any trading methodology.
You are correct, it's not a NITRO specific issue it's just a general technical analysis thing.

Quoting asdf
Jigsaw,

Thanks for pointing that out. You're absolutely right. I was not following it real time and just assumed that if he made the trades that he made, then it must have been somewhat normal trading conditions. I was also looking at his chart as is. All that stuff goes out the window when trading the news -- that's just a "be quick or be dead" environment. Your analysis is great. If you have any good price action tips or charts, I would be very interested. Thanks again.

asdf
No problems whatsoever I thought thats what happened.

I might post some charts later alright.

Quoting mandel
So what are, in your opinion, the best sources to determine news times or periods?

Is the FF calendar reliable enough?
It is indeed, there are only two news items that I care about NFP Fridays and Interest Rate decision days. But then again it is all relative to timeframe also . . . But even 1HR or 4HR traders would want to be flat the market oround these times.

Quoting Chris_B
Hi Jig and welcome to the thread...

Your observations on live trading I think are right...my fear is that in live the executions are not so easy as in demo...that is the big problem (it can depend on what broker you use)...

But what you say in the first image is opinable...you say that it was an "untradable" moment... In demo i've traded it...i've not watched trendlines or other...just following what PA was doing and observing the movement of PA...because all happened in about 5 minutes... ona 5M chart yes...it was very untradable but with...
Hey there, thanks for the welcome.

I actually did not see your chart above his, I thought he was just presenting it as his own analysis, so I was in no shape or form criticising your trading whatsoever, it seems like I was when I read back the "flow of the thread" now but rest assured I was not in anyway

I assume you are putting in market orders for your Nitro trades in your chart, the overall problem here is that the brokers are protecting themselves (Which they are fully entitled to do) . A lot of those prices that you got executed at on Demo - chances are that those prices never even existed. I have put in orders in times like this before and if you put in market orders your orders WILL be delayed and you WILL be re-quoted. Widened spreads are a pain in the butt as well, as a 5Min trader spreads are of serious concern to me, I don't want to pay any more spread than I have to as if I had higher spreads to be honest my systems would not be profitable.

Even if you do get your orders in theres a good chance your broker will cancel profits and tell you it was under the "price that never existed" rule that you will have to sign up to.

Aside from this, I would just be careful at news times, you really have no idea what price will do so no technical analysis applies really. Trading is hard enough without having to trade these times.

I don't mean to seem negative here I 100% hope you get on great trading, I am just pointing out what I know from experience. I don't live trade Renko but I know from trading the 5Min that this is a huge concern around these times.

Once upon a time news trading was extremely profitable, but that time is long gone and brokers have closed that off completely now, as they were the ones losing out. I am sure some people got EXTREMELY rich from it, unfortunately I was not one of these

But either way, see what it's like for yourself live and make up your own mind about it.

Take care,
Jig
  • #395
  • Sep 6, 2009 11:54am Sep 6, 2009 11:54am
Quoting Jigsaw
Even if you do get your orders in theres a good chance your broker will cancel profits and tell you it was under the "price that never existed" rule that you will have to sign up to.
Don't get too paranoid about brokers. There's a lot of misinformation out there.

No need to trade the news. Sit on your hands and do nothing. Trade market openings. Trade well behaved markets.

Try this little exercise.

Scalp 6 pips (net gain) a day. Maybe you have 4 trades. Let's say it goes like this, +10, +5, -13, +4. OK STOP. You have a +6 gain. Maybe you get more, but go for minimum +6. Switch off your machine. Go do something else. Discipline. Start again tomorrow.

Based on a 10K account trade one lot each time. 30 pips a week is $300. So your account has grown by 3% in one week.

Do the same the following week, but compound it. So 1% of 10,300 enables you to buy 1.01 lots.

A 10K account compounded at 3% per week will have a balance of $45,155 after 52 weeks.
After 2 years it will be at $210,009.

That's just for 6 pips a day. OK it's never going to work out quite like that for all kinds of reasons, but it is achievable. You don't have to bust a gut trying to get 50 pips a day.

I think you need a specific daily game plan with scalping because unlike higher time frame trading which generally presents less frequent setups, scalping presents many opportunities during the day. That's both good and bad. For those who are addicted to pressing buy and sell buttons, it's downright dangerous. My plan is just an example, it can be adjusted to suit each individual's risk tolerance, but it's crucial to work to daily targets.

If you really need to get it out of your system. get the real money in the bank and then play in your sand box demo account where it's permissable to do silly stuff.
  • #396
  • Sep 6, 2009 12:02pm Sep 6, 2009 12:02pm
I'm a little bit concerned about the validity of trend lines on Renko. Without the wicks, trend lines aren't giving a true picture of where the swing points are. On the other hand we are not trading the wicks, only the bricks, so maybe it doesn't matter. Not sure really. Any ideas?
  • #397
  • Sep 6, 2009 1:42pm Sep 6, 2009 1:42pm
Quoting SlushFund
I'm a little bit concerned about the validity of trend lines on Renko. Without the wicks, trend lines aren't giving a true picture of where the swing points are. On the other hand we are not trading the wicks, only the bricks, so maybe it doesn't matter. Not sure really. Any ideas?
Hi
Trend lines and Renko - just an opinion:
I think that trend lines are valid with Renko (without the wicks) in fact Renko makes it easier to draw valid trend lines. However you need to keep the structure of renko in mind. So you trend line is really a trend area - and the width of it is 1 Renko Brick.

Just my 2c,
Ian
  • #398
  • Sep 6, 2009 2:11pm Sep 6, 2009 2:11pm
Quoting mandel
So what are, in your opinion, the best sources to determine news times or periods?

Is the FF calendar reliable enough?

Mandel,
I have found the calendar on dailyfx a good source for news, it updates on a sunday night and gives the news for the entire week so you can plan your week round these times if you have too, it also has some neat little filters and sort options if your not bothered by low importance news releases or currencies that you don't trade.

Hope this helps

The Dr.

http://www.dailyfx.com/calendar/
  • #399
  • Sep 6, 2009 3:02pm Sep 6, 2009 3:02pm
Nice link, thanks!

Quoting Dr.Scalpall
Mandel,
I have found the calendar on dailyfx a good source for news, it updates on a sunday night and gives the news for the entire week so you can plan your week round these times if you have too, it also has some neat little filters and sort options if your not bothered by low importance news releases or currencies that you don't trade.

Hope this helps

The Dr.

http://www.dailyfx.com/calendar/
******************* I'd rather make money than be right.
  • #400
  • Sep 6, 2009 6:58pm Sep 6, 2009 6:58pm
All this is very interesting info to me.

I would actually like to know your experiences from trading nitro in a live account, since I'm still far from such trading

Quoting SlushFund
Don't get too paranoid about brokers. There's a lot of misinformation out there.

No need to trade the news. Sit on your hands and do nothing....
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