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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #42,961
  • Sep 3, 2009 8:04am Sep 3, 2009 8:04am
Quoting Jim4x
I have a major question in my head about correlation..... it's been bugging me for a while now, so I thought I'd ask the wise and helpful members of this thread for their take!

basically, there are a number of pairs that all go up and down together, so what are the implications of that?
Just look at the attached screenshot and you'll see what I mean. I could have included GBPUSD, AUDUSD plus EURUSD at a squeeze..... they all basically run the same direction as each other.
So really a buy on GBPUSD is pretty much the same as a buy on AUDJPY........


Thats exactly why I trade/watch 2 or 3 pairs, IMHO more than that is just non sense.
  • #42,962
  • Sep 3, 2009 8:10am Sep 3, 2009 8:10am
Decent PB just closed on the 4H, rejected a major level but headed into a little chop and against thmid term trend. Monitoring.

Any comments fire away.
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  • #42,963
  • Sep 3, 2009 8:10am Sep 3, 2009 8:10am
YES, at times currencies do correlate, much like the euro and suisse, as most are familiar with this particular cross, yet why isn't the eurchf a flat line ? because all majors and the corresponding crosses are traded in different markets, at different times, by different traders and speculators and you and me, does that answer your question or do we dig deeper ?
Without women, money would have no meaning - Aristotle Onassis
  • #42,964
  • Sep 3, 2009 8:13am Sep 3, 2009 8:13am
im sure benji would be in off 1.43 round no & rac in much earlier...
let's see how she plays out
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Simplicity is the key to success
  • #42,965
  • Sep 3, 2009 8:14am Sep 3, 2009 8:14am
Hi Guys,

I need your advice.

How would you manage this trade?

I am not too sure if I should take half off the table at this zone when I got in on the BUOB On the H4 for the NZDJPY or should I just do a 2 bar trail?
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  • #42,966
  • Sep 3, 2009 8:25am Sep 3, 2009 8:25am
There is one fundamental that I respect and that is the non farm payrolls, so be careful on entering trades ahead, if I were you I would consider profits (about now) ahead of the fundamentals
Without women, money would have no meaning - Aristotle Onassis
  • #42,967
  • Sep 3, 2009 8:37am Sep 3, 2009 8:37am
Quoting atton
Good day to all of you

Hm, I ve failed on my first demo trade using PA.

We have ( I think )confluense on Fib ret, price touches the Ema and also the price is on S1 based on 4 hour candle.That is my opinion. Feel free to to criticize .

Good Luck

Edit: The only reason for me I shouldn't take this trade was that MACD crossed down
Hey there bro,

I trade this timeframe also, and this was a pass for me.

Now do not get me wrong it is a mega location, I don't use EMAs or Fibonaccis at all anymore. But it is a awesome location, however there are a couple of reasons not to take it.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Alright , so as we all know the pinbar is known as a bar which has long nose, and sticks out away from surrounding price, although while this one has a long nose it does not jut away from surrounding price a tall.



Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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The shape of the pinbar and it's lack of jutting away from surrounding price already ruled this one out for me, now another reason why I did not like it at all is the area it is trading back into.

It's trading back into pure congestion , I mean look at all those bar lows.

The question you have to ask yourself is : Is this worth taking when SERIOUS areas of congestion are so close.

The market is not really moving here also, it's just been a sideways mess for the last thirty or so hours.



Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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I just threw up a Renko chart to further illustrate my point, as it will cut out a lot of the noise. (You could use a line chart either, equally as good if not better)

Again you see 1.10 being a huge PPZ, however the area that you want price back into looks even worse from this perspective.



Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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As I said I trade this timeframe and pair, and I just want to show you a trade I took to illustrate the difference between the two setups (in my opinion) (Not that I am great or anything but just to show the difference.



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Chart shows it all, look at the difference in setups with regards to :

1) Size of the bar

2) Size of the bar relative to price around it, it actually engulfs a lof of the mess to the left of it, this is a very good thing because if price came back up your stop would be protected by all these lows AND the PPZ

and also

3) Space trading back into



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And finally another Renko again to show the difference in the area you are trading back into.

You have to always trade back into space.

I know sometimes (especially in rangy markets like these) you have to pick the point of first resistance and either start reducing your risk so as not to take a full loss OR take some money off the table. But I always ask myself the question is this actually worth trading, and for me today that 1HR pin was not.


Hope that was useful, not that a person can win every time either, losses do happen. I was breakeven on monday, I had a great day on tuesday and I took a loss day yesterday (shit happens)

Anyway, apologies for the long post. I just saw that pinbar when it formed and it was such a good location, and I passed on it so it sticks in my brain hehe.

Best Regards,
Jig


EDIT -

Did ForexFactory resize my charts ? Bah !
  • #42,968
  • Sep 3, 2009 8:37am Sep 3, 2009 8:37am
Don't forget the nj is still in a long term up trend so that most are looking to buy at lower levels, do not get confused about which way such a particular currency is headed, look at the weekly and daily charts to see the direction, you will need to go with the trend...
Without women, money would have no meaning - Aristotle Onassis
  • #42,969
  • Sep 3, 2009 8:45am Sep 3, 2009 8:45am
Quoting esbatu
Hi SC, thanks for your comments.

Below is the chart I based my trade on.
The arrow point to the pinbar.
The red line is the ppz area 1.11 where the price rejected and turn back down to form the pinbar, indicating strong resistance.
The blue line is my first TP.
My short order, 10 pips from the low of the pb, got triggered on the next bar. It only went 10 pips in my favour than price reverse back up.

From your post, I realized that MACD is up and this is in fact a sideway market which should be avoided for newbee like me.

I understand that losing...
See chart -
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Quoting esbatu
Hi guys,

I just went back to read first few pages of James post.

I notice that james said to use fib ret from the last swing point as confluence.

So let say that we have a bearish pinbar, we will drag the fib ret from the top of the last swing to low of the last swing.

If we have bullish pinbar, the fib ret is from the low of the last swing to top of the last swing.

I realized that by doing that, we are trading with the trend.

But what if the pinbar is form as highest high or the
lowest low of the chart?
How do we use the fib ret in...
Yeah you got it brother .

Normall if you zoom out you can get Fibs from 99% of places, but if it's at an EXTREME swing high or low then yes round numbers become the first place too look to trade away from.

Remember if there are no fibs there won't be any PPZ's down there/up there either . . . So . . . It will be just round numbers at EXTREME swing higs lows.

You would be amazed though, sometimes you can scroll back for several years as it has been a while since price has been there, and price will still react to those levels.

Godspeed,
Jig
  • #42,970
  • Sep 3, 2009 8:47am Sep 3, 2009 8:47am
PB on retrace after the move up, right on 1.1000. With trend, confluence with 2 fibs (last 2 moves up), I am trying to find a reason NOT to take this trade. Maybe moving into a PPZ?

Thoughts anyone?
  • #42,971
  • Sep 3, 2009 8:57am Sep 3, 2009 8:57am
Check out the usdcad pennant maybe that answers your questions ?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Without women, money would have no meaning - Aristotle Onassis
  • #42,972
  • Sep 3, 2009 8:58am Sep 3, 2009 8:58am
Quoting Jduester
Bundy, you make a good point about discretionary vs. mechanical... the more experience we get, the more 'mechanical' our method becomes despite not changing anything. We become more comfortable finding s/r, understanding pa, and taking profit/loss. Experience certainly helps make quick trading decisions second nature without emotion and to the trader him/herself, seem mechanical... Do you agree with this?
Somewhat, yes.

...But also, for myself, I'm tending to gravitate more and more towards taking trades that I know will have an easier management path.
Easier management paths are pretty close to mechanical now ...the way I'm trading of late.

As an excellent example of what I mean here, take the BAT based stop Mike and some others here use at times. (I've used it at times too)
It does a good job of mechanising most of the decision for you:-
Stay in the trade until the BAT line gets interacted with, then work your exit from there. (Whatever that strategy may be)

...How simple is that?

All you have to do then is select trades that you feel will work best with the BAT line , or are more likely to get to that stage.

Quote
The same active, quick management decisions made instead by a new trader would seem very discretionary however, because the new trader doesn't have the memory/experience to 'back' his decision.
Yep. I'd have to agree.

Personally, I tend to talk about discretionary trading in terms of something I see on the chart that's not easy to teach to someone without writing a chapter to a novel in terms of the word count. lol ...Because of all the little visual factors and nuances that don't translate too well into words. Like being able to spot the most tradable pivot zones and ignore the noise in between.
...but to me, when I'm at my best, the decision has gotten down to I'll take it, or i won't take it and will manage it like 'this' because of factors x,y and z . It's pretty mechanical in that respect. (A1 locations help with this the most)
.
Like you said, comes with experience and time. I'm pretty sure others here would agree.
.
Bundy's status today: "Waiting..."
  • #42,973
  • Sep 3, 2009 9:13am Sep 3, 2009 9:13am
Quoting Jim4x
I have a major question in my head about correlation..... it's been bugging me for a while now, so I thought I'd ask the wise and helpful members of this thread for their take!

basically, there are a number of pairs that all go up and down together, so what are the implications of that?
Just look at the attached screenshot and you'll see what I mean. I could have included GBPUSD, AUDUSD plus EURUSD at a squeeze..... they all basically run the same direction as each other.
So really a buy on GBPUSD is pretty much the same as a buy on AUDJPY........
This is something that really caused me problems a few months ago. If you are going to take multiple trades in pairs that are highly correlated you need to have no doubt you are trading an A++ setup. Even then I would recommend trying to just pick one. You are really just increasing your risk. If that is okay then I think just putting on more lots on one trade is better, you only have to plan one trade that way.
  • #42,974
  • Sep 3, 2009 9:13am Sep 3, 2009 9:13am
I think this is at least close to be an A-setup?

A very nice pb at PPZ and 50% fib confluence.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #42,975
  • Sep 3, 2009 9:27am Sep 3, 2009 9:27am
Quoting FinnTrader
I think this is at least close to be an A-setup?

A very nice pb at PPZ and 50% fib confluence.
Yes. Very good!

Notice the room below after it breaks. Nice clean area.
Bundy's status today: "Waiting..."
  • #42,976
  • Sep 3, 2009 9:33am Sep 3, 2009 9:33am
Hey JigSaw,

Thanks for the info. But these PPZs are everywhere. I think when I look for a trade there is always a PPZ that is near to my PA pattern . Nevermind could you please attach your Renko 15 min chart ( b/c I want that baby ). Thanks in advance.

Good Luck
  • #42,977
  • Sep 3, 2009 9:35am Sep 3, 2009 9:35am
Quoting bundyraider
Yes. Very good!

Notice the room below after it breaks. Nice clean area.
+ the pb just retraced at the 150 ema.
meine augen sind die sterne
  • #42,978
  • Sep 3, 2009 9:37am Sep 3, 2009 9:37am
Hi everybody,

Anyone trading this pin?
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  • #42,979
  • Sep 3, 2009 9:45am Sep 3, 2009 9:45am
Quoting aserbfx
+ the pb just retraced at the 150 ema.
Nice. I've got no charts here so can't look at it. lol
Bundy's status today: "Waiting..."
  • #42,980
  • Sep 3, 2009 9:51am Sep 3, 2009 9:51am
Hi Jigsaw,

Thanks for your explanation. After reviewing this trade, i agree that this USD CAD trade is not a great setup. Looking back at some similar trades in my journal, i find out that this kind of grade B/C setup will only work if the MACD agree with the direction of the PB.
Another great lesson learned. Thx.
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