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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #42,941
  • Sep 3, 2009 3:49am Sep 3, 2009 3:49am
Hi WWT -

Outside bars are played from extremes for best results.

They can be played as continuation, but you gotta know the landscape price is moving into.

In this case (see the chart) the BEOB is not really getting us past a zone, (PPZ's are zones, not hard lines), but into a consolidation area, so at best, I'd expect some trouble right away if the bar broke. It is not unusual for old consolidation areas to become the new ones, and sometimes price just rejects off them anyway.

I cannot prognsoticate what *will* happen now, but I see a Small Crappy Pin Bar formed... if it breaks through he current location, 153.50 is a nice area to watch for PA again.

See more in your notes below

Quoting wwtravel
Yesterday, I was looking at this BEOB and almost got into this trade....
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I'm pretty much done with all this ...
  • #42,942
  • Sep 3, 2009 3:49am Sep 3, 2009 3:49am
Quoting supermatt
that beob isnt exactly at a swing high ? As far as I know all seniors keep saying only take pa at swing high or low points?
Good point
  • #42,943
  • Sep 3, 2009 3:58am Sep 3, 2009 3:58am
Quoting StoragePro
Hi WWT -

Outside bars are played from extremes for best results.

They can be played as continuation, but you gotta know the landscape price is moving into.

In this case (see the chart) the BEOB is not really getting us past a zone, (PPZ's are zones, not hard lines), but into a consolidation area, so at best, I'd expect some trouble right away if the bar broke. It is not unusual for old consolidation areas to become the new ones, and sometimes price just rejects off them anyway.

I cannot prognsoticate what *will* happen now, but I see a...
Good point
Yes, Outside bars and Pin bars work the best at swing lows and highs.

In my example, I thought the BEOB would have enough momentum to carry the price down to 147 area.
  • #42,944
  • Sep 3, 2009 4:04am Sep 3, 2009 4:04am
See the chart - it is a working trade I am in from a couple 'o days a go.

See the "x"? That was the point I suspected price to hesitate at and have some pause. It did. Check a lower TF for confirmation.

Look what happened - old resistance became support. That minor area acted like a magnet for price. And it bounced off again at the check marked bar.

I don't know about you, but it just makes me giddy to see price do what I suspect it will do. In fact, that PB two bars earlier than the checked bar - meant nothing to me. I would not have shorted it because of the location. It sucked.

Just wanted to share my grins. (I do wish it would move a little faster though.... )
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I'm pretty much done with all this ...
  • #42,945
  • Sep 3, 2009 4:14am Sep 3, 2009 4:14am
Quoting StoragePro
Hi WWT -

Outside bars are played from extremes for best results.

They can be played as continuation, but you gotta know the landscape price is moving into.

In this case (see the chart) the BEOB is not really getting us past a zone, (PPZ's are zones, not hard lines), but into a consolidation area, so at best, I'd expect some trouble right away if the bar broke....
Maybe a breakout and then a pullback could happen here.
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  • #42,946
  • Edited 5:58am Sep 3, 2009 4:22am | Edited 5:58am
Quoting esbatu
Hi guys, first post here.
I've been following this thread for about 2 months and have
paper trade the pin bar with quite good result....
As a newbee in trading pin bar, I was quite shock to
take my first full bar loss yesterday in USD/CAD...
Can somebody explain to me why this pinbar fail?
Nice first post.Welcome!
glad PB's have served u well..... until now.

plain & simple, & repetitively-mentioned reasons:
-Losing is part of trading. Losing is a fact of life. u should accept & be prepared for it.
-not all PA setups work. There are a lot of factors aside from PA/PA shape
(see recent posts here & here)

it would be better if u share with us a chart of that particular trade, so people here can help analyze.
  • #42,947
  • Sep 3, 2009 5:10am Sep 3, 2009 5:10am
Hi SC, thanks for your comments.

Below is the chart I based my trade on.
The arrow point to the pinbar.
The red line is the ppz area 1.11 where the price rejected and turn back down to form the pinbar, indicating strong resistance.
The blue line is my first TP.
My short order, 10 pips from the low of the pb, got triggered on the next bar. It only went 10 pips in my favour than price reverse back up.

From your post, I realized that MACD is up and this is in fact a sideway market which should be avoided for newbee like me.

I understand that losing is part of the game. Just would like to know what happened on this particular trade. Thx
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  • #42,948
  • Sep 3, 2009 6:01am Sep 3, 2009 6:01am
Hi guys,

I just went back to read first few pages of James post.

I notice that james said to use fib ret from the last swing point as confluence.

So let say that we have a bearish pinbar, we will drag the fib ret from the top of the last swing to low of the last swing.

If we have bullish pinbar, the fib ret is from the low of the last swing to top of the last swing.

I realized that by doing that, we are trading with the trend.

But what if the pinbar is form as highest high or the
lowest low of the chart?
How do we use the fib ret in that case?
Is this the case where we only use the PPZ and round number?

Just another dumb question from a newbee
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  • #42,949
  • Sep 3, 2009 6:07am Sep 3, 2009 6:07am
Quoting StoragePro
See the chart - it is a working trade I am in from a couple 'o days a go.

See the "x"? That was the point I suspected price to hesitate at and have some pause. It did. Check a lower TF for confirmation.

Look what happened - old resistance became support....
Killer trade SP
  • #42,950
  • Sep 3, 2009 6:16am Sep 3, 2009 6:16am
Quoting StoragePro
I'd suggest no more than 1% max until you *know* what you are doing and have proved it with a nicely accelerating equity curve. This will not happen real fast.

It is the psychological aspect that will get ya....
There are guys in the market wizards books who suggest risking so little it doesn't feel like it maters if you win or lose. Then let your win rate and compounding work for you.

I think any amount that freaks you out over a loss is too much. And the larger your account size the quicker that's going to happen. It also depends how much that money means to you.

If you have a six figure account size ready to go then stay on 0.5% for a while (even 0.5% of a reduced version of that account). And take the increase up slowly. Say 0.1% a month on the first of every month so long as you're profitable. Stick with a defined plan to add in.

Adding in to the account, increasing risk, all this stuff can be a psychological killer. Meaning you mess around with your plan because the risk freaks you out. I speak as someone who knows.

Personally I wouldn't go near 2% risk until I had at least a year to two years of solid success behind me. Remember, compounding and a %R MM system will give you an increased position size without you (or your fearful greedy mind) realizing it. That's a good thing.

I am trading with 25% of what I will eventually trade with at the moment. I risk 1% on dailies/weeklies. And I recently moved my 4H from 0.5% to 1%. That's good enough for me. I think starting with a losing streak on live dailies, even after a good long successful period on demo, made me cautious. I am happy it did though.

And once my MM is in place, I have a mantra in my head that I try and live by. Especially when I am thinking of yachts and islands and financial freedom (and I dream big with this stuff). I say to myself "Focus on making the next trade a slam dunk winner"

We're building something amazing for our lives. One trade at a time.
  • #42,951
  • Sep 3, 2009 6:26am Sep 3, 2009 6:26am
  •  krue
  • | Joined Mar 2008 | Status: finger scares cat, power of illusio | 410 Posts
awesome trade, I rode the down leg, didn't get into the move up. however, can you illustrate a little bit more of your reason why the bearish pin two bars before the checked pin meant nothing to you? isn't it at the location of 61/73 fib retracement + test of uptrend line, and 0.9250 resistance level? a lot of conflu there.

this isn't intend to against your view, just want to understand the points you are viewing, I am sure the points I didn't see here is something critical, I guess. thanks for your attention

Quoting StoragePro
See the chart - it is a working trade I am in from a couple 'o days a go.

See the "x"? That was the point I suspected price to hesitate at and have some pause. It did. Check a lower TF for confirmation.

Look what happened - old resistance became support. That minor area acted like a magnet for price. And it bounced off again at the check marked bar.

I don't know about you, but it just makes me giddy to see price do what I suspect it will do. In fact, that PB two bars earlier than the checked bar - meant nothing to me. I would not have shorted...
  • #42,952
  • Sep 3, 2009 6:29am Sep 3, 2009 6:29am
Quoting nasir.khan
Hello Mike you were right.

But its not a PM cause i don't wan't anyone to feel like i am feeling right now.

It's all gone. All profits of 1 month in 2 Days....
I was watching that change anxiously Nasir,

James16 says : "the only thing that can stop you from becoming a good trader is the grey matter between your ears"

You don't feel bad because you lost. You don't feel bad because you got rid of those mas. You don't feel bad cuz it's one of the first few of the losses you've take with this system.

You feel bad because the fulfillment of your extra ordinary dream required you to only be extra ordinary lucky.

If you built anything exaggerated on an extra ordinary start, you were always a strong candidate for this kind of rude awakening - I say this because I've been in that same position.

Let's do some math here:

you converted $90 into $365 which was beyond anything called "ordinary gains"...300%+ in a month. Not bad for a start...

but tell me this: What kind of "sensible" money management would like you to go looking for such returns anyway? Shouldn't you have set any earthly limit to the profits you were making? To the huge number of trades you were taking?

Not having a proper plan to accomplish an extra ordinary target (of building something valuable on a $90 account) was always going to come back and hurt you pretty bad. You're still fortunate it didn't stab you right away and blew your 90 bucks off.

The point is, It's not the pins that have stopped working, it's not the markets that have gone crazy, you're missing something else.

Money management is probably the next best department one need's to gain expertise on after consistently showing trades the green end of the picture.

Just hang on in there bro, and use this experience as an eye opener. It's only the rare 5% that will ever get out of it, and it's just these 5% that will truly call trading a "day job busting" experience.

Ghous.
I believe . . .
  • #42,953
  • Sep 3, 2009 6:38am Sep 3, 2009 6:38am
Quoting TiaForex
There are guys in the market wizards books who suggest risking so little it doesn't feel like it maters if you win or lose. Then let your win rate and compounding work for you.

I think any amount that freaks you out over a loss is too much. And the larger your account size the quicker that's going to happen. It also depends how much that money means to you.

If you have a six figure account size ready to go then stay on 0.5% for a while (even 0.5% of a reduced version of that account). And take the increase up slowly. Say 0.1% a month on the first...
well said!
  • #42,954
  • Sep 3, 2009 6:58am Sep 3, 2009 6:58am
Quoting nasir.khan
Hello Mike you were right.

But its not a PM cause i don't wan't anyone to feel like i am feeling right now.

It's all gone. All profits of 1 month in 2 Days....
I started live again after 1 year pretty much of demo, i found i was making huge pips on demo- this week i went live and i had a sell on cable, took the dailly pin bar of the asending trendline...was in profit by 250 pips..dailly closed as a BEOB i thought i found a runner here....

price came all the way back and i closed out losing 2/3 profit..
trade as if your trading a large acount the pip value will mean much more..(james says this all the time, and i never noticed what he means till today....lol)
It is mentally destroying to have multiple winner run into losers...so just a few minor adjustment needed brother!

take notice of ppz - thats all your a fine trader - keep up the progress

remember small steps climb mountains....
  • #42,955
  • Sep 3, 2009 7:16am Sep 3, 2009 7:16am
Good day to all of you

Hm, I ve failed on my first demo trade using PA.

We have ( I think )confluense on Fib ret, price touches the Ema and also the price is on S1 based on 4 hour candle.That is my opinion. Feel free to to criticize .

Good Luck

Edit: The only reason for me I shouldn't take this trade was that MACD crossed down
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  • #42,956
  • Edited 7:30am Sep 3, 2009 7:20am | Edited 7:30am
Quoting wwtravel
Yesterday, I was looking at this BEOB and almost got into this trade. I thought this was a good set up for a short entry for the following reasons:
- Down Trend
- Convincing break of price zone(Apr and May resistance)
- Break of up trend line.
- BEOB

Well, the price didn't move as I expected.

Questions:
Anything that would caused the price to reverse?
How would you play this BEOB?

This is how I played out those PB's totally focused and in the trading zone....I felt I was rocking with the order flow like blood circulating through my veins, an incredible feeling, yet 100% focused...
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Without women, money would have no meaning - Aristotle Onassis
  • #42,957
  • Sep 3, 2009 7:43am Sep 3, 2009 7:43am
Hi all
I haven't seen much comment on yesterdays pin, but to me it had a lot going for it.
It's in a ppz, it's in the direction of the trend since Jan, it's at a swing low and there's divergence.
I do have to say it's rather sluggish at the moment though.
Are many of you playing this one?

I would appreciate comments and an idea of what targets you would shoot for.
I'm inclined just to trail the stop (although by how much I'm still juggling with).
Thanks
Jim
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He has the right to criticize who has the heart to help. Abraham Lincoln
  • #42,958
  • Sep 3, 2009 7:44am Sep 3, 2009 7:44am
Did you see the eye by proxy, it is all in this thread
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Without women, money would have no meaning - Aristotle Onassis
  • #42,959
  • Sep 3, 2009 7:56am Sep 3, 2009 7:56am
Quoting Jim4x
Hi all
I haven't seen much comment on yesterdays pin, but to me it had a lot going for it.
It's in a ppz, it's in the direction of the trend since Jan, it's at a swing low and there's divergence.
I do have to say it's rather sluggish at the moment though.
Are many of you playing this one?

I would appreciate comments and an idea of what targets you would shoot for.
I'm inclined just to trail the stop (although by how much I'm still juggling with).
Thanks
Jim

Hi Jim,

I am not one of the seniors in this room, yet I love reading, in fact I just bought "market wizards" and the "new market wizards" to read while on holidays , just in case the weather turns sour....you know how the weather can change like that ?
Without women, money would have no meaning - Aristotle Onassis
  • #42,960
  • Sep 3, 2009 7:59am Sep 3, 2009 7:59am
I have a major question in my head about correlation..... it's been bugging me for a while now, so I thought I'd ask the wise and helpful members of this thread for their take!

basically, there are a number of pairs that all go up and down together, so what are the implications of that?
Just look at the attached screenshot and you'll see what I mean. I could have included GBPUSD, AUDUSD plus EURUSD at a squeeze..... they all basically run the same direction as each other.
So really a buy on GBPUSD is pretty much the same as a buy on AUDJPY..... does that mean that if a good setup occurs on any one of the correlated pairs you would just take the one with the highest daily range (more pips available)?

OK, I hope the issue is clear.....
thanks
Jim
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He has the right to criticize who has the heart to help. Abraham Lincoln
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