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  • #281
  • Sep 1, 2009 9:52am Sep 1, 2009 9:52am
Interesting, I'm learning every day.
So there was a +200 pips V-top reversal in the direction of the channel.
Pity I didn't catch it earlier...
Actually I see GY has been in a down trend since Aug 7th

ian: those are the normal renko blocks super compressed so you can see the channel direction.


Quoting asdf
Noticed that strong V-top reversal in on your gbpjpy chart and had to see what would cause such a strong move away. Great example of a channel. Connect points 1 and 3, draw the parallel line starting at point 2, and then look for a reversal formation at 4. Unfortunately, there was no pullback on your chart and only a slight one on mine. Tough to catch a move like that.
  • #282
  • Sep 1, 2009 10:04am Sep 1, 2009 10:04am
Quoting bali2002
Interesting, I'm learning every day.
So there was a +200 pips V-top reversal in the direction of the channel.
Pity I didn't catch it earlier...
Actually I see GY has been in a down trend since Aug 7th

ian: those are the normal renko blocks super compressed so you can see the channel direction.
Oops, should have looked at the time scale
  • #283
  • Sep 1, 2009 10:19am Sep 1, 2009 10:19am
After yesterday's lousy price action and today price action being poor up until news, I found myself "forcing" trades instead of watching the signals. Thus, an otherwise profitable day was a break even. Once I settled down and traded the signals and the price action, I did OK but as you can see I made one EJ trade that killed my profit for the day (didn't set a stop loss).

Discipline, discipline, discipline! Without it profits are like the wind.
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4XTrader2
  • #284
  • Sep 1, 2009 10:22am Sep 1, 2009 10:22am
Quoting bali2002
Interesting, I'm learning every day.
So there was a +200 pips V-top reversal in the direction of the channel.
Pity I didn't catch it earlier...
Actually I see GY has been in a down trend since Aug 7th

ian: those are the normal renko blocks super compressed so you can see the channel direction.
Some say it's impossible to know if you'll get a big move or not. Can you know with certainty? Absolutely not, nothing is certain in the markets. Can you know with a high degree of probability? I think that gbpjpy chart speaks for itself. That is my trade philosophy: use a scalper's stop to catch a swinger's profits.
  • #285
  • Sep 1, 2009 11:19am Sep 1, 2009 11:19am
Quoting asdf
Some say it's impossible to know if you'll get a big move or not...
Not only is it impossible to gauge the size of the move, it is also not possible to predict direction. So the answer is to trade what you see. To sneak into the banquet and steal a few crumbs off the table. To jump on and off the tiger's back before he notices. The Nitro set up shows price action and pair correlation in a very clear way.

I hope this thread doesn't degenerate into a search for more indis. Already, discussion about chart patterns and S/R levels is drifting away from pure PA. This is scalping not swing or position trading.
  • #286
  • Sep 1, 2009 11:23am Sep 1, 2009 11:23am
Here's the eurjpy. That solid-line channel was drawn with MT4's equidistant channel tool. Very useful. Now I don't have to eyeball the "parallelness."
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  • #287
  • Sep 1, 2009 11:42am Sep 1, 2009 11:42am
Quoting SlushFund
I hope this thread doesn't degenerate into a search for more indis. Already, discussion about chart patterns and S/R levels is drifting away from pure PA. This is scalping not swing or position trading.
Renko brick patterns are pure PA and the patterns repeat infinitely. When you can identify these patterns quickly, it takes Nitro to a whole different level!
Q
The Only Constant Is Change!
  • #288
  • Sep 1, 2009 11:46am Sep 1, 2009 11:46am
Quoting SlushFund
Not only is it impossible to gauge the size of the move, it is also not possible to predict direction. So the answer is to trade what you see. To sneak into the banquet and steal a few crumbs off the table. To jump on and off the tiger's back before he notices. The Nitro set up shows price action and pair correlation in a very clear way.

I hope this thread doesn't degenerate into a search for more indis. Already, discussion about chart patterns and S/R levels is drifting away from pure PA. This is scalping not swing or position trading.
If it is impossible to gauge the size of a move, then why set a 5-pip target? By setting a hard target, you are in effect gauging the size of a move. You are essentially saying that if X happens (whatever X may be), then the market will make a move of at least 5 pips. That, by definition, is gauging the size of a move.

If it is not possible to predict direction, why would you even enter OR exit the market? An entry or exit setup, regardless of whether it comes from S/R or trix crossovers or watching 4 pairs moving simultaneously, is a prediction about the market's direction. If you buy because you see all four pairs moving up, that, by definition, is predicting direction.

My trading principles are no different than yours. I make predictions about market direction and I gauge the strength of moves. And after doing so, I enter and exit accordingly.

As for pure price action, it is S/R. Not S/R that comes from calculated formulas, but high and lows.

I posted here because some suggested they were welcome here. If they are not, please let me know and I will stop.
  • #289
  • Sep 1, 2009 11:55am Sep 1, 2009 11:55am
Quoting asdf



I posted here because some suggested they were welcome here. If they are not, please let me know and I will stop.

I think your posts are extremely helpful. have been following them on the other thread.
  • #290
  • Sep 1, 2009 12:05pm Sep 1, 2009 12:05pm
Quoting asdf
If you buy because you see all four pairs moving up, that, by definition, is predicting direction.
No it is not. A prediction happens before the event. If you buy because price is moving up, you already know in which direction price is moving. You are just hitching a ride on a trend that is already in play.

What you can say about any S/R level or fib level or pivot point is that they are always right. Price will either bounce off it or go through it. Comforting eh?

I'm just trying to make the point that price itself is the key indicator in scalping.

Why set a target? Trading is a game of probability is it not?
  • #291
  • Sep 1, 2009 12:35pm Sep 1, 2009 12:35pm
Quoting SlushFund
No it is not. A prediction happens before the event. If you buy because price is moving up, you already know in which direction price is moving. You are just hitching a ride on a trend that is already in play.

What you can say about any S/R level or fib level or pivot point is that they are always right. Price will either bounce off it or go through it. Comforting eh?

I'm just trying to make the point that price itself is the key indicator in scalping.

Why set a target? Trading is a game of probability is it not?
Assuming you don't wait for a pullback, when you buy as price is moving up, you are effectively at the "top" of the market's immediate move, even if only for an instant. Assuming you don't wait for a popup, if you sell as price is moving down, you are at the bottom of the market's immediate move, even if only for an instant. You are then hoping that price will continue to move in your favor. You are making a prediction about direction. To suggest otherwise means that (1) you can buy in an uptrend at a price cheaper than the going market rate and get filled (again, assuming you're not waiting for a pullback), which is highly improbable, and (2) you would never be stopped out because, as you state, "you already KNOW in which direction price is moving," which is also highly improbable. If you have been stopped out, it is because your prediction about the market's direction was wrong. Trading in general is nothing more than making a prediction about market direction, whether you want to see it as such or not, regardless of whether you are a scalper, swing trader, or position trader.

As for probabilities, I agree 100%. This is just a game of probabilities. Doesn't eliminate the fact that setting a hard target and hard stop is gauging the strength of a move.

As for S/R, whether price bounces off it or goes through it, both provide extremely valuable pieces of information to use in further predicting the market's direction.
  • #292
  • Sep 1, 2009 1:05pm Sep 1, 2009 1:05pm
Some share what works for them, some critizize and oppose those who share.
Normal forum dynamics.

Keep it coming. I'm learning a lot.
  • #293
  • Sep 1, 2009 1:38pm Sep 1, 2009 1:38pm
Quoting asdf
Assuming you don't wait for a pullback, when you buy as price is moving up, you are effectively at the "top" of the market's immediate move, even if only for an instant.
None of your analysis would be out of place if applied to the swing trading I do on one hour charts. I won't even enter a trade if I don't get a specific retracement based on a fib level. Your analysis is very sound.

However I don't think scalping for a few pips lends itself to this kind of analysis. You don't even have time to think when price is moving fast. It's down to experience and screen time.

I would urge nitro traders to concentrate on the magic moments when there is a brick reversal on the traded pair, together with strong price momentum. This alone is not enough. You wait for the moment when all pairs suddenly dance together in correlation. It's easily missed and doesn't happen often. So strictly observe a one hour window of trading at either London or NY opening. Get one or two trades and stop for the day. Limit your exposure to the market. This is scalping.
  • #294
  • Sep 1, 2009 1:39pm Sep 1, 2009 1:39pm
Quoting bali2002
Some share what works for them, some critizize and oppose those who share.
Normal forum dynamics.
A completely useless remark.
  • #295
  • Edited 2:22pm Sep 1, 2009 1:45pm | Edited 2:22pm
However I'm finding that BOTH approaches are useful and are DEFINITELY improving my scalping...

BOTH PA analysis and 'those magic moments'.
  • #296
  • Sep 1, 2009 4:15pm Sep 1, 2009 4:15pm
Quoting SlushFund
None of your analysis would be out of place if applied to the swing trading I do on one hour charts. I won't even enter a trade if I don't get a specific retracement based on a fib level. Your analysis is very sound.

However I don't think scalping for a few pips lends itself to this kind of analysis. You don't even have time to think when price is moving fast....
I guess we'll agree to disagree. I definitely agree that the "magic moment" is key to this system. The purpose of my posts is to hopefully show that, even if you're scalping, some setups are higher probability than others. It doesn't matter how fast the pairs are moving or how magic the moment, if you buy into an area where there is an overwhelming number of sellers, there is a high probability of taking a loss. And vice versa for selling. I can tell you I have bought at the top of a move and sold at the bottom of a move, thinking the magic moment was there, only to take a loss. The other nitro thread has a chart illustrated with examples of someone who bought into resistance and sold into support, and both were losses. My purpose in posting is to hopefully show that you can know with a certain degree of probability where these areas may be.

Some will say there is no way to know whether a trade would fail or succeed. And I agree if you're talking in absolutes. There is no 100% certainty on any one trade. I think we all accept that. However, I don't see the benefit of making absolute assertions when referring to a venture that is based on probabilities. To say that you can't know with certainty which direction the market will move is useless because the trader has already accepted that (and hopefully his/her money management reflects this lack of certainty). A more useful approach would be to look at each trade in terms of probabilities.

With that in mind, nitro's exit strategy is based on an absolute: the idea that you want to limit exposure to the market because you can never know, etc., so the target was set at 5 pips. However, whether the 5-pip target is met or not is based on probabilities. Because the exit arguably has the greatest impact on a trader's overall profitability, I hope to offer a different perspective as to whether a random pip target based on an absolute trading principle makes mathematical sense when overall success or failure is based on managing probabilities. In other words, if this is a game of probabilities, should it be any different for the exit? If you enter the market in an area that has a certain probability of moving 5 pips, and only a slightly lower probability of moving 50 pips, does taking the 5 pips make mathematical sense?

Here are some potential exit strategies that may be more in line with probabilities: (1) a change in the color of the trix candle bars, (2) a three block reversal going the other way, (3) price action getting to the point where it can no longer turn support into resistance or resistance into support, or (4) the reason for entering the trade in the first place no longer exists, or more specifically, the momentum that put you into the trade has subsided.

Many can consistently spot the magic moment and the 5-pip target simply works. That's great. For others, it may not be working (as evidenced in the other thread). I hope this may offer some potential for improvement.
  • #297
  • Sep 1, 2009 7:09pm Sep 1, 2009 7:09pm
Quoting asdf
In other words, if this is a game of probabilities, should it be any different for the exit?...

That does actually make some sense. We are entering a trade with the probability that it is going to go 5 pips. What is the probability that it will go more. I believe there was a study posted in the original c4 thread with those actual numbers. If it moves X pips what is the probability that it will move 10 more. 20 more . etc. I will see if I can find it.

5 pips is working well for me, so far. But i can always use more pips if it isn't giving me much more exposure.
  • #298
  • Sep 1, 2009 8:08pm Sep 1, 2009 8:08pm
Good Morning.

When the Momentums and the PA all headed up, the probability was that the price would continue for a little while. So I took my +7 pips
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  • #299
  • Sep 2, 2009 1:21am Sep 2, 2009 1:21am
Quoting roto7gl
That does actually make some sense. We are entering a trade with the probability that it is going to go 5 pips. What is the probability that it will go more. I believe there was a study posted in the original c4 thread with those actual numbers. If it moves X pips what is the probability that it will move 10 more. 20 more . etc. I will see if I can find it.

5 pips is working well for me, so far. But i can always use more pips if it isn't giving me much more exposure.


hi Roto,
I think it is these two files that your talking about. (hope they attach ok - have never done it before)

Dr.S
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf Forex Report Predicting Price movement.pdf   642 KB | 812 downloads
File Type: pdf Forex Traders Cheat Sheet.pdf   321 KB | 669 downloads
  • #300
  • Sep 2, 2009 1:53am Sep 2, 2009 1:53am
Frankfurt for +7 pips
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