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NITRO Scalping for serious traders

  • #41
  • Aug 26, 2009 2:14pm Aug 26, 2009 2:14pm
I am sure this has been covered in past replys,,,,,But,,,I am sure there has been alot pips left on the table with the "less is more" money management system,,,,If your going to use a 20 pip stop,,,then you need at least 20 pip profit, 40 would be preferable,,,,Especially if your trading the dominant trend,,,,otherwise your just pissing in the wind!!,,,,These jpy pairs move dramatically at prime london/ny sessions,,,Be a little more patient,,,,, try and capture the full potential of these short moves,,,thx
  • #42
  • Aug 26, 2009 2:25pm Aug 26, 2009 2:25pm
Quoting piptalk
I am sure this has been covered in past replys,,,,,But,,,I am sure there has been alot pips left on the table with the "less is more" money management system,,,,If your going to use a 20 pip stop,,,then you need at least 20 pip profit, 40 would be preferable,,,,Especially if your trading the dominant trend,,,,otherwise your just pissing in the wind!!,,,,These jpy pairs move dramatically at prime london/ny sessions,,,Be a little more patient,,,,, try and capture the full potential of these short moves,,,thx
Absolutely not true.

If the system provides 90% wins, then a 5 pip win with a 20 pip SL will make you very wealthy.

Your point about being patient and riding for more pips is a good one, it's just not this system.

Doc
  • #43
  • Aug 26, 2009 2:27pm Aug 26, 2009 2:27pm
Quoting JazzmanQ2
If you are having trouble look at your charts, E/J specifically, there are patterns that repeat with Renko.
How many wins if you would just enter on second brick every time?
How many wins if you would just enter on second brick every time in the direction of strength? (just throw MA 50 on your chart for strength direction)
How many wins if you would just enter on second brick every time in the direction of strength and at the suggested trading times?
How many wins if you would just enter after one brick pullback every time in the direction of strength...
I remember your post on C4 about the visual backtest. Post 7545 to be exact.
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...61#post2979661

I think everyone interest in Nitro should reread this post. It holds some clues for us all.
4XTrader2
  • #44
  • Aug 26, 2009 2:44pm Aug 26, 2009 2:44pm
Quoting 4xtrader2
I remember your post on C4 about the visual backtest. Post 7545 to be exact.
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...61#post2979661

I think everyone interest in Nitro should reread this post. It holds some clues for us all.
= = =
Q
The Only Constant Is Change!
  • #45
  • Aug 26, 2009 2:50pm Aug 26, 2009 2:50pm
Quoting piptalk
I am sure this has been covered in past replys,,,,,But,,,I am sure there has been alot pips left on the table with the "less is more" money management system,,,,If your going to use a 20 pip stop,,,then you need at least 20 pip profit, 40 would be preferable,,,,Especially if your trading the dominant trend,,,,otherwise your just pissing in the wind!!,,,,These jpy pairs move dramatically at prime london/ny sessions,,,Be a little more patient,,,,, try and capture the full potential of these short moves,,,thx
There is another thread "Nitro for open minded traders" that explores other ways of using Nitro including longer term swing trades. On this thread we are focused on the original plan, which has been very well presented above .. taking fast quick pips, maybe even working towards just one high probability trade per day. We are not concerned with RR as the WIN percentage with this strategy, once mastered, is well above the 90% needed for continuous profitability.
******************* I'd rather make money than be right.
  • #46
  • Aug 26, 2009 2:55pm Aug 26, 2009 2:55pm
Quoting JazzmanQ2
= = =
Q
Jazzman, why don't you copy & paste that post over here .. it is a good one and that way it will be handy for people to see.
******************* I'd rather make money than be right.
  • #47
  • Aug 26, 2009 3:00pm Aug 26, 2009 3:00pm
Quoting DocPMD
Absolutely not true.

If the system provides 90% wins, then a 5 pip win with a 20 pip SL will make you very wealthy.

Your point about being patient and riding for more pips is a good one, it's just not this system.

Doc
I agree,,,Nitro can be very profitable,,,,But 9 times 5= 45 ---1 times 20 = 20,,,,,,Thats alot work for 25pips!!!,,,Thats assuming the trader is 90% proficient,,,,Breakeven at 80%?,,,,,Doesnt make sense to me,,,,,My point is ,,,,the potential for additional pips is very worthwhile,,Why not take advantage of it,,,thx
  • #48
  • Aug 26, 2009 3:02pm Aug 26, 2009 3:02pm
Quoting piptalk
I agree,,,Nitro can be very profitable,,,,But 9 times 5= 45 ---1 times 20 = 20,,,,,,Thats alot work for 25pips!!!,,,Thats assuming the trader is 90% proficient,,,,Breakeven at 80%?,,,,,Doesnt make sense to me,,,,,My point is ,,,,the potential for additional pips is very worthwhile,,Why not take advantage of it,,,thx
In the other thread they are open to discussing that variation.
******************* I'd rather make money than be right.
  • #49
  • Aug 26, 2009 3:02pm Aug 26, 2009 3:02pm
Ok,,,,thx
  • #50
  • Aug 26, 2009 3:09pm Aug 26, 2009 3:09pm
I really would like everybody to look at their charts so you can relate. This is a re-post from the C4 thread. Please do you homework, don't just take my word.
Just for fun (I'm addicted), I wanted to do a visual backtest of Renko blocks, specifically when there is just one block formed. The results are kind of interesting although I don't know if it means anything.
These are all approximations...but pretty close.
From August 3rd on EJ there have been 405 changes of direction where at least one 10 tic brick was formed in the opposite direction.
Of those 405 direction changes, 123 were only 1 brick which translates to roughly 30%. This means that if you traded the second brick on every direction change you should win 70% of the time.
Now this is where it gets interesting.
What if you only traded with strength with no other factors involved? No patterns, fibs, no s/r or taking consideration for tops/bottoms etc.
I threw MA 48 on my chart and just traded with the trend. I took every trade that was in the direction of the MA.
Trading with the trend eliminated 63 trades! That brought the losing percentage down to 15% so now we are at 85% winners taking every trade with the trend on the second brick. This is only theoretical of course because the market is so fickle, but it sound pretty good and you dont need ANY indicators on your chart.
Now what if we did the same thing and added momentum the correct trading time and a few other factors like PA. We might be able to get that percentage even higher...at least the probabilities are better.
What do you think...food for thought?
Q
The Only Constant Is Change!
  • #51
  • Aug 26, 2009 3:16pm Aug 26, 2009 3:16pm
Quoting JazzmanQ2
I really would like everybody to look at their charts so you can relate....
Jazz,

I did the same sort of test with EJ over a shorter time period and got the same 70% to 75% success rate. I tried filtering in different ways: trading time, only with trend, S/R. I could not improve upon the 75%.

I posted this and that is when Edge came down on me and banned me, so I did not get a chance to expand upon it.

But I am with you. If what I call the "Base" success rate is 75% (i.e. trade like a monkey), then there has to be a way to improve upon that. I just couldn't figure it out.

That is why I am looking forward to the development of this thread. Hoping someone smarter than me can figure it out!

Doc
  • #52
  • Aug 26, 2009 3:47pm Aug 26, 2009 3:47pm
Quoting DocPMD
Jazz,

I did the same sort of test with EJ over a shorter time period and got the same 70% to 75% success rate....
Hi DocPMD:

Don't let the rat beat you.

"Unless you experience the unpleasant symptoms of being wrong, your brain will never revise its models. Before your neurons can succeed, they must repeatedly fail. There are no shortcuts for this painstaking process."

Pg 54 - HOW WE DECIDE


"Look, for example, at this elegant little experiment. A rat was put in a T-shaped maze with a few morsels of food placed on either the far right or left side of the enclosure. The placement of the food is randomly determined, but the dice is rigged: over the long run, the food was placed on the left side sixty per cent of the time. How did the rat respond? It quickly realized that the left side was more rewarding. As a result, it always went to the left, which resulted in a sixty percent success rate. The rat didn't strive for perfection. It didn't search for a Unified Theory of the T-shaped maze, or try to decipher the disorder. Instead, it accepted the inherent uncertainty of the reward and learned to settle for the best possible alternative.

The experiment was then repeated with Yale undergraduates. Unlike the rat, their swollen brains stubbornly searched for the elusive pattern that determined the placement of the reward. They made predictions and then tried to learn from their prediction errors. The problem was that there was nothing to predict: the randomness was real. Because the students refused to settle for a 60 percent success rate, they ended up with a 52 percent success rate. Although most of the students were convinced they were making progress towards identifying the underlying algorithm, they were actually being outsmarted by a rat."

Pg 64 - HOW WE DECIDE


"Think about the stock market, which is a classic example of a "random walk," since the past movement of any particular stock cannot be used to predict its future movement. The inherent randomness of the market was first proposed by the economist Eugene Fama, in the early 1960's. Fama looked at decades of stock market data in order to prove that no amount of knowledge or rational analysis could help you figure out what would happen next. All of the esoteric tools used by investors to make sense of the market were pure nonsense. Wall Street was like a slot machine."

Pg 67 - HOW WE DECIDE
If you only trade long, then you can't always be wrong.
  • #53
  • Aug 26, 2009 4:10pm Aug 26, 2009 4:10pm
Quoting FrankenPip
"Think about the stock market, which is a classic example of a "random walk," since the past movement of any particular stock cannot be used to predict its future movement. .... Fama looked at decades of stock market data in order to prove that no amount of knowledge or rational analysis could help you figure out what would happen next. All of the esoteric tools used by investors to make sense of the market were pure nonsense. Wall Street was like a slot machine."
I agree, BUT...you can engage a strategy to profit from what you expect the market to do while also protecting yourself if it doesn't. this is also know as Money Management.
Also, I disagree with the premise above (highlighted in magenta). I think the odds OVERWHELMINGLY favor the fact that if a bar closed red the next one will also (same with green). It's the exception rather than the rule to see every other bar change colors.
krly
  • #54
  • Aug 26, 2009 4:16pm Aug 26, 2009 4:16pm
Quoting krly
I agree, BUT...you can engage a strategy to profit from what you expect the market to do while also protecting yourself if it doesn't. this is also know as Money Management.
Also, I disagree with the premise above (highlighted in magenta). I think the odds OVERWHELMINGLY favor the fact that if a bar closed red the next one will also (same with green). It's the exception rather than the rule to see every other bar change colors.
krly
Hi krly:

That is precisely why the rat will beat you. While you are "expecting" something and "predicting", the rat is following what the market is doing. It has already been proven.
If you only trade long, then you can't always be wrong.
  • #55
  • Aug 26, 2009 4:17pm Aug 26, 2009 4:17pm
Quoting JazzmanQ2
I really would like everybody to look at their charts so you can relate. This is a re-post from the C4 thread. Please do you homework, don't just take my word.
Just for fun (I'm addicted), I wanted to do a visual backtest of Renko blocks, specifically when there is just one block formed. The results are kind of interesting although I don't know if it means anything.
These are all approximations...but pretty close.
From August 3rd on EJ there have been 405 changes of direction where at least one 10 tic brick was formed in the opposite direction.
Of...
I would concur with your observation to a certain degree. I just completed my own and here is what my findings are:
Period of observation: 6/25/2009 to 8/25/2009
Number of direction changes: 1100
Number of single bricks: 304
Percentage of single bricks to Direction Change: 27.64%
Which means 72.36% of all trades would be profitable on second brick.

However, if you add a 48 MA as suggested and only trade the trend, you would still have only 72% profitable trades because half of your direction changes would still be single brick changes. This is contrary to what is stated above. This is because you would be trading only half the trades (uptrend trades eliminate all countertrend trades and vice-versa but it does not eliminate single bar direction changes).

Back to the drawing board with this one.

Can anyone see how to eliminate the single bar trades?
4XTrader2
  • #56
  • Aug 26, 2009 4:22pm Aug 26, 2009 4:22pm
Quoting FrankenPip
Hi krly:

That is precisely why the rat will beat you. While you are "expecting" something and "predicting", the rat is following what the market is doing. It has already been proven.
I am in full agreement.

From the book "Trading in the Zone" the five pillars of success are:

  1. Anything can happen.
  2. You don't need to know what is going to happen next in order to make money.
  3. There is a random distribution between wins and losses for any given set of variables that define an edge.
  4. An edge is nothing more than an indication of a higher probability of one thing happening over another.
  5. Every moment in the market is unique.

4XTrader2
  • #57
  • Aug 26, 2009 4:22pm Aug 26, 2009 4:22pm
Something that was asked but not answered:

This thread is for serious traders.

Please be aware that those trading Nitro have done the leg work on C4. If you are new to this thread and have only read this one then please go and read the other C4 thread and if possible the one started by Edgetrader called c4 Scalping.

This thread is dedicated to trading NITRO and not much else. If you feel that as an experienced trader you have an indi or some other observation that you feel would benefit this system then test it for a few weeks, record your findings then present them.

I feel i can speak for most when i say we no longer wish to add any other indis to our charts......the goal is to remove them.

Experienced and new traders are welcome, but please respect the wishes of the thread originator and those that wish to discuss THAT METHOD ONLY here.

If you dont understand and are struggeling with your trades then post a screen shot and the problem and we will do what we can to help. If however it is covered in various other indi's, its not a nitro pair and goes against what we do here then please be prepaired to be told to bugger off.

With regards to the risk vx reward win vs loss blah blah blah before commenting or judging just try yourself for a few weeks on a demo. At this point i am not planning on having a losing trade with this system so it doesn't really effect me. I am not planning on taking more that 5 pips either, or more than 2% account growth a day as well..... not the normal for most threads and systems so please try to come to terms with it

Thanks Guys. Glad we could keep Nitro alive.

THanks
  • #58
  • Edited 4:49pm Aug 26, 2009 4:31pm | Edited 4:49pm
Quoting 4xtrader2
I would concur with your observation to a certain degree. I just completed my own and here is what my findings are:
Period of observation: 6/25/2009 to 8/25/2009
Number of direction changes: 1100
Number of single bricks: 304
Percentage of single bricks to Direction Change: 27.64%
Which means 72.36% of all trades would be profitable on second brick.
Actually it would be a bit higher as some of the second bricks may have gone all the way to 9 pips before pulling back, you would have been able to get 5 or less pips and win the trade. Hard to tell how many, maybe I'll enable the wicks on Renko and look at it. I don't want to over think it, just need to hit it once a day not every time.
The Only Constant Is Change!
  • #59
  • Aug 26, 2009 4:34pm Aug 26, 2009 4:34pm
Quoting 4xtrader2
I am in full agreement.

From the book "Trading in the Zone" the five pillars of success are:

  1. Anything can happen.
  2. You don't need to know what is going to happen next in order to make money.
  3. There is a random distribution between wins and losses for any given set of variables that define an edge.
  4. An edge is nothing more than an indication of a higher probability of one thing happening over another.
  5. Every moment in the market is unique.

Hi 4xtrader2:

I would continue this discussion but afraid I may be told to "buggar off".
If you only trade long, then you can't always be wrong.
  • #60
  • Aug 26, 2009 4:45pm Aug 26, 2009 4:45pm
I've been watching from afar for awhile. I'm just about ready to trade live w/Nitro as I been using a demo acct for two weeks to practice.

I liked the idea of getting a message on my cell phone when the price went above the 10 lwma. So that's why I've been using the MA Price Cross.

I just modified the message to add the symbol as most of us are monitoring more than one pair.
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 #MA_Price_Cross1.1.mq4   5 KB | 1,171 downloads
File Type: ex4 #MA_Price_Cross1.1.ex4   5 KB | 1,002 downloads
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