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Sonic R. System

  • #5,561
  • Aug 26, 2009 7:44am Aug 26, 2009 7:44am
Quoting Rastaman
Got stopped out on USD/CHF and would appreciate a postmortem of any possible reasons this may have been a bad entry.


EP, 1.06042 SL 1.06368

Trend was down on H1, H4 & D1
No point pondering on a losing trade but...

It should have been a TP1 hit and SL @ BE trade,,,

Sonic
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  • #5,562
  • Aug 26, 2009 7:48am Aug 26, 2009 7:48am
Quoting ddaytrader
Hi Rastaman,

H4 and D1 means very little to M15....

Thanks DD

So,should I just sort of reference H4 & D1 as long term and look to H1 for more immediate trend and S&R?
Starting to see instead of just looking.
  • #5,563
  • Aug 26, 2009 7:53am Aug 26, 2009 7:53am
Quoting ddaytrader
Good Morning Sonikers,

Just a reminder that you shouldn't neglect your S/R analysis. I learned to use simple black and white candlestick charts from a mentor of mine. TAH also, I believe, has found that on the B&W charts, PA and S/R are more easily identifiable.

Here is a series of my EU S/R charts.

I think you will see that the SonicR short stood out in bold relief when PA was viewed on the BW.
Good instruction there on S&R. Thanks, DD.
  • #5,564
  • Aug 26, 2009 8:03am Aug 26, 2009 8:03am
Both setups zig zagged again after initial Ep set. But nevertheless, the Ep areas still seem to have held up valid (though, I admit, DD's EU analysis and patience yielded higher Ep on EU).
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  • #5,565
  • Aug 26, 2009 8:17am Aug 26, 2009 8:17am
EU M15: Not to make too fine a point of it, but notice DD's Ep also is confirmed by TL break. Note, too, that technically SonicR entry is a bit lower.....wait for Dragon exiting candle to close, wait for PA to head back to/re-enter Dragon and then come back and pass that candle's close. Note, at that point, the ema Dragon is starting to turn down (clue).
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  • #5,566
  • Aug 26, 2009 8:26am Aug 26, 2009 8:26am
Quoting traderathome
Both setups zig zagged again after initial Ep set. But nevertheless, the Ep areas still seem to have held up valid (though, I admit, DD's EU analysis and patience yielded higher Ep on EU).
GU Tp reached for 112 pips.
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  • #5,567
  • Edited 8:42am Aug 26, 2009 8:30am | Edited 8:42am
Quoting sonicdeejay
No point pondering on a losing trade but...

It should have been a TP1 hit and SL @ BE trade,,,

Sonic
Thanks for the input Sonic.

I actually had a 22 pip TS on it but that spike must have been too fast for it to get hit.

I am not bothered by this loss, I am just trying to work out where it went wrong.
I see from your chart that I should have had a tp at the resistance on the left.

It is necessary for mew to learn from these mistakes to make them worthwhile.
Starting to see instead of just looking.
  • #5,568
  • Aug 26, 2009 8:32am Aug 26, 2009 8:32am
Quoting traderathome
Both setups zig zagged again after initial Ep set. But nevertheless, the Ep areas still seem to have held up valid (though, I admit, DD's EU analysis and patience yielded higher Ep on EU).
EU: First Tp reached for 43 pips.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #5,569
  • Aug 26, 2009 8:49am Aug 26, 2009 8:49am
Quoting Rastaman
Got stopped out on USD/CHF and would appreciate a postmortem of any possible reasons this may have been a bad entry.
....
if i may...
it was mainly an issue of S/R. there was a support around the DS1 area in your chart (see the bottom left part of your chart).
also, USD (USD Index) has been strengthening.
  • #5,570
  • Aug 26, 2009 8:59am Aug 26, 2009 8:59am
Quoting traderathome
EU M15: Not to make too fine a point of it, but notice DD's Ep also is confirmed by TL break. Note, too, that technically SonicR entry is a bit lower.....wait for Dragon exiting candle to close, wait for PA to head back to/re-enter Dragon and then come back and pass that candle's close. Note, at that point, the ema Dragon is starting to turn down (clue).
And now that lower support has been broken, where is the next likely target?

I consider any situation where wave analysis supports a trade to be a SonicR. When I am unsure, I defer to the indi's. But there are many times where wave analysis will point to a trade before the indicators, which lag, catch up to price action. This is not Classic SonicR. I would say I divide SonicR into three types:

1) Classic SonicR: SonicR as Sonic teaches it, where price action is confirmed by the indicators.

2) SonicRentry: Where PA gives us a chance to get in on a Classic SonicR that we missed. This uses confirmation by SonicCCI that re-entry is safe.

3) Advanced SonicR: This is where PA and wave analysis point to a SonicR type trade, but the indicators, because they lag PA, have not confirmed the trade per Classic SonicR. This requires very clear, very distinct waves.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EU 8-26-2009 Black & White6.jpg Size: 73 KB
  • #5,571
  • Aug 26, 2009 9:13am Aug 26, 2009 9:13am
Quoting supremeChaos
if i may...
it was mainly an issue of S/R. there was a support around the DS1 area in your chart (see the bottom left part of your chart).
also, USD (USD Index) has been strengthening.

Thanks for the input, it is appreciated and indeed welcome back to Sonic.


Yes, I see it now after I got all the junk out of the way and took DD's advice about a plain black and white chart.


Thanks again.
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Starting to see instead of just looking.
  • #5,572
  • Aug 26, 2009 9:25am Aug 26, 2009 9:25am
Rastaman,
Thanks.
from my experience, what i notice is, on any timeframe,
if the (down) trend is strong, price will drop below the Sonic dragon & will take some time before it touches the dragon again.
in your trade, price dropped below Dragon but touched/revisited it quite immediately & stayed there.
in your latest chart, u will see the upmove. price did not/failed to touch dragon -- this tells me uptrend is quite strong.
Sir sonicdeejay can confirm this view or not.

with regards to the charts, what u can do is have 1 chart with your indicators & another chart (of the same currency pair) that is bare/almost bare (like your latest chart).
  • #5,573
  • Aug 26, 2009 11:09am Aug 26, 2009 11:09am
Quoting Rastaman
Thanks DD

So,should I just sort of reference H4 & D1 as long term and look to H1 for more immediate trend and S&R?
I mean that you shouldn't let a significantly larger TF downtrend to lead you to only play the M15 bear (or convince you that a bear trade is a sure thing), and vice versa.

On the monthly charts, SP 500 is in downtrend. But you would have gotten killed playing the bear side for the past 5 of those months.

Of course larger trend is important. But it is going to assert itself at specific S/R levels.

Look again at the B&W charts I posted in this thread:

Quoting ddaytrader
Here is a series of my EU S/R charts.
And look at what has developed today:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EU 8-26-2009 Black & White8.jpg Size: 81 KB
  • #5,574
  • Aug 26, 2009 3:56pm Aug 26, 2009 3:56pm
Quoting ddaytrader
And now that lower support has been broken, where is the next likely target?

I consider any situation where wave analysis supports a trade to be a SonicR. When I am unsure, I defer to the indi's. But there are many times where wave analysis will point to a trade before the indicators, which lag, catch up to price action. This is not Classic SonicR. I would say I divide SonicR into three types:

1) Classic SonicR: SonicR as Sonic teaches it, where price action is confirmed by the indicators.

2) SonicRentry: Where PA gives us a chance to get...
Here?
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  • #5,575
  • Aug 26, 2009 4:27pm Aug 26, 2009 4:27pm
Quoting traderathome
Here?
Hi TAH,

Your next target would be the next if it breaks below the support line it fell to this morning. When I posted the first chart here:
Quoting ddaytrader
And now that lower support has been broken, where is the next likely target?
price had broken support at 1.425x, and I was asking "where to next?" The question was somewhat rhetorical because I had a line drawn at 1.420x as the next support, to which price fell before bouncing.

If price breaks that 1.420x level, then the next visible support (as in actual price action support, and not artificial fib level or floor pivot level support), comes in at 1.417x down to 1.415x.

Also, it is interesting that price bounced from 1.420x and rallied right back to 1.425x where support broke this morning. Broken support may now be new resistance. Price is, at this very moment, at a point where a pure S/R trader might be tempted to sell EU with a 15-30 pip stop, anticipating that price will find renewed selling pressure, and revisit the 1.420x level to test that support.

I have also attached the M15 with Sonic view, where you will see that price is testing resistance at the M15 Sonic Dragon.

Interesting how often PA and Sonic Indi's line up together very often.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EU 8-26-2009 Black & White9.jpg Size: 85 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: EU 8-26-2009 Black & White - Sonic View1.jpg Size: 141 KB
  • #5,576
  • Aug 26, 2009 4:48pm Aug 26, 2009 4:48pm
Quoting ddaytrader
Price is, at this very moment, at a point where a pure S/R trader might be tempted to sell EU with a 15-30 pip stop, anticipating that price will find renewed selling pressure, and revisit the 1.420x level to test that support.
Demo Trade based on the above S/R post: Short EU 1.4248, SL 1.4263 (-15) TP 1.4218 (+30)

Why demo and not real? I had my demo open so I opened the trade there but I was not logged in to my real account. By the time I got logged in to take the trade for real, price had already dropped almost 10 pips, which would have given me a -25 risk to only a +20 reward. I like it to be closer to 1:1 or better.

Let's see what happens! I'll be back in a few hours.
  • #5,577
  • Aug 26, 2009 6:49pm Aug 26, 2009 6:49pm
Quoting ddaytrader
I have also attached the M15 with Sonic view, where you will see that price is testing resistance at the M15 Sonic Dragon.

Interesting how often PA and Sonic Indi's line up together very often.
SonicR short EU
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EU 8-26-2009 Sonic Short Asia1.jpg Size: 152 KB
  • #5,578
  • Aug 26, 2009 7:32pm Aug 26, 2009 7:32pm
Quoting ddaytrader
SonicR short EU
In Asian Session??
Not bad thou..in term of Set up..

Sonic
  • #5,579
  • Aug 26, 2009 7:35pm Aug 26, 2009 7:35pm
Thanks for the system sonic and thanks to everyone who has contributed to the thread. This method takes into account what other systems on FF crucially forget - price action. Will focus my energies on mastering the art of this system.
  • #5,580
  • Aug 26, 2009 8:11pm Aug 26, 2009 8:11pm
Quoting sonicdeejay
In Asian Session??
Not bad thou..in term of Set up..

Sonic
Waves don't know what time it is ... when its time to swing, its time to swing

Price went to +20, which during Asia is the time I move SL to EP for a BE worst case scenario.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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