Popee83 System

And what are we painting again? .........



Hmmmmmm ... makes me wonder ..... :nerd:

This are the current trades. Trading a relatively tight range. I haven't yet had any good reason to cover the short positions

Fiber h4:



Cable 4:



Xau h4:

Well folks, we can see a fierce battle between the bulls vs. the bears as of now. More so, the good news and bad news are also at per

Fiber:



Here now what do we have ... fiber is now locked between the two retracement levels ... could break either way.

Cable:



Still the 61.8 S isn't breached seriously. So, downside still intact.

Gold:



61.8 S intact.

Now all in all, I was expecting a dash to the 23.6 fib to shake-out some folks and the bear sweep wouldn't have been such a give-away. Now, folks don't want to sell stock back to co. insiders who know if we don't correct we might end-up making a grave economic error - this usually has economic level ramifications.

Also, all the correction talk has even got into the minds of even the novice traders since we saw China dangerously swaying on the very brink of bear territory.

So. In a nutshell, the bears are trying to buy-back these stock certs. but the bulls are strongly trying to create a ceiling to abort a tailspin should these certs. get back into the hands of the bears who sold-off with greed last Friday and Monday.

Schork Oil Outlook: Do or Die for Bears ....

ENERGY PRICES WERE MIXED ON WEDNESDAY… as such, it’s do-or-die for the bears. If they are going to defend the range, than it will have to be here. If they fail, the path to $75, $80, $85… etc will be wide open. Meanwhile, Henry Hub gas is in the toilet, but that didn't prevent someone from coming into the market last Friday and buying $9 million worth of Jan and Feb 2010 $10 calls!

The draw in crude oil was massive, but it was a function of seasonal anomalies – the unexplained disappearance of 10 MMbbls of foreign oil and the 1.0 MMbbl increase in refinery demand – rather than a structural shift in the market. Obviously, the crude oil draw was the number the market wanted to focus on yesterday. In the weeks ahead, demand for refinery inputs (i.e. imports) will wane along cyclical patterns. In the meantime, supplies of gasoline and distillate fuels are comfortable.


Yesterday Uncle Sam reported that commercial stocks of oil fell hard, down 8.4 MMbbls or 2.4%. With the exception of a small build in the East (PADD I), draws were recorded in every market area, the largest occurring in the GoM (PADD III), down 6.7 MMbbls. For the same week a year ago the DOE reported a 9.4 MMbbl build. Thus, inside of one report the year-on-year disposition narrowed by 17.8 MMbbls.

ICE BRENT: Initial bearish momentum stalled halfway in between Tuesday’s 71.33 pivot-low and our 71.02 inflection-point. From there the market spiked, on heavy volume, in the post DOE spasm.
As far as today goes, bids through last week’s 75.15 high print alerts to follow through momentum towards our 76.02 inflection-point. Here at The Schork Report we will look for further strength above here towards our 77.09 intra-day. On the other hand, offers through yesterday’s 73.55 pivot clear a path towards our 73.16 inflection-point. Below here we will look for offers towards our 72.09 intra-day.



link:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/32492818

Well folks, Bolt has just broken a new 200m world record! 19.20 sec. Once again, ante up man.




Disclaimer:
I know FF is a forex site. But am a big fun of sports. Like the English premier league too. I believe we all know that much work with no play makes Jack a dull boy.

For Volatile US Stock Market, September May Be Real Test

The sun and fun of summertime—and the 8 percent gain in stock prices—is set to give way to the more intense time of September.



The beginning of autumn is traditionally a time when volume comes back into the market and hard-core investors get down to business.


"In September it's back-to-school not just for students but investors, too," says Lawrence Creatura, portfolio manager and equity market strategist at Federated Clover Capital Advisors of Rochester, N.Y. "After a summer at half-speed a lot of people look at the data with a more critical eye, and what they see can sometimes be sobering."


For bullish investors, the past five months have been a day at the beach. Stock prices have jumped about 50 percent off the mid-March lows, and the momentum has continued through the summer, though August has been a bit slower than the preceding months.


But volume has been beyond anemic.
Total dollar volume in July 2009 was 30 percent less than the previous two years and about 75 percent less than in 2006. Days of advancing volume have beaten those with declining volume by a 10 to 1 count, suggesting a skewed picture and a sellers' strike rather than a true rush of buyers.
Thursday's narrow stock gains, for instance, came even as the market posted more than 50 new highs against just one new low.


Analysts trying to discern whether the rally is real hope more volume in September can help create increased certainty about the market's direction. The month will feature an options expiration that some analysts believe will yield significant information about investor sentiment.


"We've rallied big on very light volume," Joe Kinahan, strategist of Thinkorswim, told CNBC. "We should start to see a truer picture of what people are really thinking about the economy as they gear up to year end. ... The September expiration, the next one, will give us a truer picture of the economy."


Primary on investors' agenda are two items: Stabilization of housing and jobs, as well as a move beyond what analysts call the "second derivative," or the economy not merely showing an easing of negativity but real progress.
Should both events come together—and there's a considerable level of confidence at least that the worst has passed—the return from summer vacation could be a happy one for the markets.


"You come into September and you get some pronouncements for Q3 earnings and oftentime that's the moment where the bloom comes off the rose," Creatura says. "We see improvement for the second-half story."
The expectation of economic improvement is the good news for the post-summer crowd.
The bad news is that the bears will have history on their side.



September is the worst month for stocks, with the Standard & Poor's 500 down 1.3 percent since 1928. And October is often, as Creatura describes it, "between a hurricane and a root canal."


That has some advisors expecting more volatility in the coming months, after a summertime in which the Chicago Board Options Exchange's Volatility Index [VIX 24.84 http://media.cnbc.com/i/CNBC/CNBC_Im...hlist_down.gif -1.42 (-5.41%) http://media.cnbc.com/i/CNBC/CNBC_Im...ltime_icon.gif] beat a hasty retreat from its historic highs.


More good news, though: That could set up nicely for investors who are paying attention.


"I'm not saying the market is going to have a big pullback, but this is the time of the year to be on the lookout for" big price swings, says Peter Miralles, president of Atlanta Wealth Consultants. "At this point it's just a buying opportunity."


Miralles sees another new trend emerging as summer gives way: The small-cap leadership that traditionally vanquishes a bear market, and has lived up to form this year, will give way to mid- and large-cap leadership as the market bulls ahead.

"The volume will resolve itself down the road," he says. "The economy is stabilizing. I think everybody knows that."
Yet the market faces stumbling blocks along the way.


Analysts continue to wait for a healthy correction that would send the major averages backtracking about 10 percent. The strong level of market confidence that has prevented the correction from taking place is being seen as a contrarian bearish sign.


That has led to a variety of warnings from market pros for investors to stay cautious and play at least some defense. After turning heavily toward safety as the market slumped into March, investors went from holding 45 percent cash then to 25 percent cash by July; stock and stock funds holdings went from 41 percent in March to 51 percent in July, according to data from the American Association of Individual Investors.


"I do believe a correction here is quite possible and might be healthy, especially if it brings back some of the skepticism and pessimism that helped launch the rally off the March lows," Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist at Charles Schwab, wrote in an analysis. "But, no one needs to be a hero in the meantime."



Indeed, there remains the possibility that if the market doesn't get the news it wants in September but still isn't prepared for a selloff, the month could be a wash.


"September may be shaping up as a nothing month, where you have a balance of forces," says Richard Sparks, senior analyst at Schaeffer's Investment Research in Cincinnati. "It seems that you've almost got a scenario where the bulls and bears are in equal states of confusion as to what might happen with stocks and with the economy."


Despite his fairly bullish stance, Creatura says he is "as disoriented as the next guy" when it comes to anticipating market moves.


Safe moves at this point, he says, include investments in energy, particularly natural gas, and health care, especially contract research organizations.
Other investors will be playing it even safer, as analysts look to see just what September portends for the longer-term stocks outlook.


"We hit the bottom in March. Fear was rampant and I think people are feeling more confident now," says Jill Hollup, director of investments at Lowenberg Wealth Management Group in Austin, Texas. "But they're not going to forget what happened in 2008 anytime soon."


link:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/32492853

What's Up With AIG?

What's up with AIG? Most traders think it is UNANALYZABLE -- a short squeeze is the only rational explanation.AIG [AIG 32.47 http://media.cnbc.com/i/CNBC/CNBC_Im...tchlist_up.gif 5.83 (+21.88%) http://media.cnbc.com/i/CNBC/CNBC_Im...ltime_icon.gif] is up another 24 percent today, already well over 80 million shares changing hands.
Never mind that the new CEO, Mr. Benmosche, is out today saying that he will repay the government what the company owes them--$182 billion, and that no one knows where they will get the money from. Never mind that they are trying to find sellers of their two most profitable divisions in a down market, and that they insist they are not in a hurry to sell anything.
Here's the way to look at the story:
1) After a 20-1 reverse stock split, there is now a mere 134 million shares outstanding. And that include 26 million that the government owns, so the actual float of the company is very small.
2) AIG is trading north of 80 million shares today and will certainly hit 100 million. In other words, the stock is trading its entire float--in a single day!
3) With the supply of stock so restricted, this is a recipe for disaster for shorts.
4) There is also an August options expiration, which may also be playing into the game.


.......................................................................................................
Anyone read the "Reminiscences of a Stock operator" ..... remember Larry talking about the old Tropical Trading (TT) .. History folks repeats. The weapons - ammunition, logistics might change but Strategy plays across history.

DJIA closes green three days in a row. Check-out the volumes though ... I do this on a daily basis, things aren't as they seem, the bears are the guys buying but the bulls are covering via call options thus preventing the buy-back sprint to the 23.6 fib. If it were to be a bull buy-back, there wouldn't be declining volume in an uptrend.

Bulls know pro bears expect the buy-back before they launch another tailspin. Preventing all this from occurring at all costs is the bulls play now.

LOOK AT THIS WAY ... a 23.6 fib north flip would create buying interest .. hence, the pro bears would have a substantial base to off-load and before long they have locked in the bulls who in turn run for cover. A sell-off ensues and soon all are short in tandem. And this is how a bear market is born for all the folks wondering ...

So, the 23.6 fib is ultimate. Should we pull down from there to 38.2, all bulls will run for cover. Kindly notice the lines I've highlighted on the graphs and monitor PA around them.

NB: AIG playing a dangerous game .. hope no one speculates in the stock . When it snaps it will drop like a stone ... and trust me, bears shorting it like crazy while bulls cover the puts and still short ...

Trade well 2morrow. Am still bearish until entirely slain.

Some time for a breather .. I like this song a lot .. grown with it and still love it ...

AS IT APPLIES TO MARKETS:

"You got to know when to hold em,
know when to fold em,
Know when to walk away and
know when to run.
You never count your money
when you're sittin' at the table.
There'll be time enough for countin'
when the dealin's done."



Full Lyrics really educative ...

On a warm summers evenin on a train bound for nowhere,
I met up with the gambler; we were both too tired to sleep.
So we took turns a starin out the window at the darkness
til boredom overtook us, and he began to speak.

He said, son, Ive made a life out of readin peoples faces,
And knowin what their cards were by the way they held their eyes.
So if you dont mind my sayin, I can see youre out of aces.
For a taste of your whiskey Ill give you some advice.

So I handed him my bottle and he drank down my last swallow.
Then he bummed a cigarette and asked me for a light.
And the night got deathly quiet, and his face lost all expression.
Said, if youre gonna play the game, boy, ya gotta learn to play it right.

You got to know when to hold em, know when to fold em,
Know when to walk away and know when to run.
You never count your money when youre sittin at the table.
Ther'ell be time enough for countin when the dealins done.

Now evry gambler knows that the secret to survivin
Is knowin what to throw away and knowing what to keep.
cause evry hands a winner and evry hands a loser,
And the best that you can hope for is to die in your sleep.

So when hed finished speakin, he turned back towards the window,
Crushed out his cigarette and faded off to sleep.
And somewhere in the darkness the gambler, he broke even.
But in his final words I found an ace that I could keep.

You got to know when to hold em, know when to fold em,
Know when to walk away and know when to run.
You never count your money when youre sittin at the table.
Ther'ell be time enough for countin when the dealins done.

You got to know when to hold em, know when to fold em,
Know when to walk away and know when to run.
You never count you r money when youre sittin at the table.
Ther'ell be time enough for countin when the dealins done.

.......

Link: (Download a copy here for song)
http://www.airmp3.net/download/kenny...3/dla_4e9ec_47

Link: (Download a copy here for lyrics)
http://www.lyricsfreak.com/k/kenny+r..._20077886.html

Here are my charts as of now. ..

Fiber h4:



Fiber now around the 23.6 fib region. Now it is wait and see whether the bear will materialize. Europe closed positive but on very low volume. Most traders out waiting for the "Big" September direction.

Now if we only tank to 38.2 and then pull back north ... all shorts I'll exit. Should we go down and find support around 50.0 fib, then I'll add my shorts.

Cable h4:



Cable still in a stalemate. Has a solid ceiling around the 61.8 fib. still favors downside atm until that line is breached.

Xau h4:



Also leaped north but stopped at the 38.2 fib. This is a wait and see scenario.


Am still appalled by all the surprising numbers coming out of the USA. Though, the Housing numbers were at least accounted for unlike the oil inventories. Housing stats are upper below the 250K prices but tank above 500K prices.

Back here today, we had a joke going on about Obama possibly just being another regular "Kenyan" leader - artificially synthesizing numbers. So we had guys jocking about the next NFP number and folks would say .. " 6.1, why second guess when Uncle Sum has trashed out fundamentals to push for a recovery with unsurmountable desperation" ... LOL . Just another out of the "blue number" to tame the september bear.

I am now convinced that Obama is no different from us, he is just one of us .... a Kenyan ... old habits die hard.

This is just too wonderful not to post.I would call it the dilemma of trading.



So, nice weekend y'all. See U on sunday before markets open God willing. Adios.

August Gains, But September Looms

Sure the market has continued its summer rally, with the Dow [.DJIA 9505.96 http://media.cnbc.com/i/CNBC/CNBC_Im...tchlist_up.gif 155.91 (+1.67%) http://media.cnbc.com/i/CNBC/CNBC_Im...ltime_icon.gif] and S&P [.SPX 1026.13 http://media.cnbc.com/i/CNBC/CNBC_Im...tchlist_up.gif 18.76 (+1.86%) http://media.cnbc.com/i/CNBC/CNBC_Im...ltime_icon.gif] up over another 3% each month-to-date. This of course, comes on the heels of 7% gains in July. But how long can the rally last without a pullback? As volume begins to rise in the fall, and many come back from summer vacations, investors will look at the underlying market and economic data with a critical eye. "We've rallied big on very light volume," Joe Kinahan, strategist of Thinkorswim, told CNBC."
We are just over a week from the start of September. Historically, September is the worst month on average for the markets. On average, the S&P and Dow have lost 1.3% and 1.2% respectively in the final month of the third quarter. Looking at daily averages going back to 1896, the Dow has lost ground nearly three out of every four days in September (see chart below). The ratio gets worse in the back half of the month. After an up August, the averages for September get worse as well.
http://media.cnbc.com/i/CNBC/Section...0Sept%20II.gif
With the surge we have seen, many analysts are looking for some correction before the bull rally can continue and recommending some defensive plays. Others believe the worst is past and the market is reflecting the emergence from recession. Either way, enjoy the rest of the summer because September should be interesting.



link:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/32506534

Stocks rallied for a fourth straight session Friday after a sharp jump in existing-home sales and some encouraging economic data out of Europe.
Major U.S. Indexes

LastChange% Change1 Week % ChangeYTD % ChangeDow9505.96155.911.67%1.98%8.31%NASDAQ2020.9031.681.59%1.78%28.15%S&P 5001026.1318.761.86%2.20%13.60%Russell 2000581.5112.842.26%3.12%16.43%CBOE VIX24.95-0.14-0.56%2.80%-37.63%

Existing-home sales surged 7.2 percent to a 5.24 million annual pace, the highest jump since August 2007. Economists had expected a rise of just 2.2 percent. Home sales were up 5 percent year over year. It was the fourth straight month sales have risen.
All three major indexes hit new highs for the year.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average shot up 155.91, or 1.7 percent, to close at 9,505.96, bringing its total for the four-day rally to 4.1 percent.
The S&P 500 jumped 1.9 percent and the Nasdaq advanced 1.6 percent.
The other big news of the morning was a speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke. The Fed chief said the economy is on the mend but recovery is likely to be sluggish and risks still remain.


FOR INVESTORS
"After contracting sharply over the past year, economic activity appears to be leveling out, both in the United States and abroad, and the prospects for a return to growth in the near term appear good," Bernanke said in remarks prepared for delivery to an annual Fed conference in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.
Still, trading volumes have been low, typical of late summer, which brought some volatility.

Asian stocks closed mostly lower, but China's Shanghai Composite Index [CN;SHI 2960.771 http://media.cnbc.com/i/CNBC/CNBC_Im...tchlist_up.gif 49.189 (+1.69%) http://media.cnbc.com/i/CNBC/CNBC_Im...ltime_icon.gif] managed to build on Thursday’s gains with a 1.7 percent rise.

AIG [AIG 32.85 http://media.cnbc.com/i/CNBC/CNBC_Im...tchlist_up.gif 0.55 (+1.7%) http://media.cnbc.com/i/CNBC/CNBC_Im...ltime_icon.gif] shares rose 1.7 percent after the troubled insurer won dismissal of a $1 billion workers' compensation lawsuit.

How to Recognise the Likely End of a Rally?
What types of supply (selling) indications will stop an up-move? If you are a bullish trader, there are only five major signs of supply (selling) to worry about. These signs of supply will slow a bullish move, or even stop it – they are:
1. The buying climax.
2. A failed test (a test that is not accompanied by low volume).
3. Narrow spreads accompanied by high volume, on an up-day, into new high ground.
4. The up-thrust.
5. Sudden high volume on an up-day (bar), with the next day (bar) down, on a wide spread, closing below the low of the previous bar.

It is not difficult to spot these signs.

The Buying Climax
The buying climax only comes along on rare occasions. It is hallmarked by a very wide spread up to close well off the highs on ultra-high volume. This is after a substantial bull market has already taken place. If you are in new high ground, this is a certain top.

A failed test (a test that is not accompanied by low volume).
A test with low volume indicates higher prices; however, the same test with high volume indicates supply present. The market is unlikely to go up very far with supply (selling) in the background.

Narrow Spreads & High Volume
This is very simple to see. The public and others have rushed into the market, buying before they miss further price rises. The professional money has taken the opportunity to sell to them. This action will be reflected on your chart as a narrow spread with high volume on an up-day. If the bar closes on the high, this is an even weaker signal.

This type of action is seen after a rally of some sort. Buyers are drawn into the market, usually on good news, which gives the professionals the opportunity to sell. Remember, you are not trying to beat the market, but join the professional money. You can sell with them, and you certainly should not be buying.

Up-Thrusts
Up-thrusts can be recognized as a wide spread up during the day (or during any timeframe), accompanied by high volume, to then close on the low. Up-thrusts are usually seen after a rise in the market, where the market has now become overbought and there is weakness in the background.

Up-thrusts are frequently seen after a period of selling, just before a down-move. Note the day must close on or very near the lows; the volume can be either low (no demand) or high (supply overcoming the demand). Market-makers are quite capable of generating an up-thrust, which is a moneymaking manoeuvre.

The dynamics of an up-thrust are interesting and quite brutal – the rapid up-move brings in buyers and catches stops. The traders who are already selling (shorting) the market, become alarmed and cover their positions. It is a common strategy to suddenly mark-up prices to catch the unwary.

Sudden high volume on an up-day (bar), with the next day (bar) down, on a wide spread, closing below the low of the previous bar.
This action is seen after signs of weakness and frequently indicates the start of a falling market. Once the market is known to have become weak, market-makers or specialists can mark the prices up quickly, perhaps on good news, to trap you. The higher price is maintained for as long as possible. The price then falls back, closing on the lows. As the early price is marked up, premature short traders are liable to panic and cover with buy orders.

However, those traders looking for breakouts will buy, but their stop-loss orders are usually triggered as the price plummets back down. All those traders who are not in the market may feel they are missing out and will feel pressured to start buying. This action is also designed to entice large pension funds, fund managers, banks and so on into the market.

You do not have to be a small trader to be forced into a poor trading position!

Overall, these up-thrusts are very profitable for the market-makers or specialists. An upthrust is usually seen after a period of weakness and usually indicates lower prices. Remember that the market-makers are in the enviable position of being able to see both sides of the market and have a far better view of the real situation than ordinary traders could possibly have.

Surely, if the market-makers were still bullish, they would be gunning for stops below the market rather than above it.

Exerpt from mtmv3

How to Recognise the Likely Market Top
Assume we have already seen substantial rises in the market and that the prices are now into new high ground (i.e. there is nothing higher on your chart to the left). Then we observe high volume appearing, with a narrow spread, on an up-day – this is a strong sign of weakness.

If the high volume (high activity) had represented mostly buying, surely the spread would have to be wide and up. We now know that the market-makers do not want to give you a good deal. Buyers coming into the market need somebody to buy from. If market-makers or specialists decide to meet this demand and sell throughout the day to those buyers, this will effectively ‘cap’ the top end of the market, resulting in a narrow spread up-bar for the day.

Professional money will not do this if higher prices are expected – however, they will if they anticipate lower prices.

So, the essential ingredients for this bearish indication are:

*An up-day, on high volume, with a narrow spread, into new high ground. Each element is essential for an accurate signal. Let us break things down:
1. The volume tells you that there is a lot of trading going on.
2. The narrow spread demonstrates that the prices have been ‘compressed’, which should be a warning to you, when accompanied by the high volume.
3. The new high ground shows that the volume of trading has not been influenced by other traders that are locked into the market.

What we are seeing is the market-makers telling us their bearish views of
the market by the narrow spread, on high volume, on an up-day. Professional money will be selling to such an extent that higher prices will now be impossible.

ursus maritimus

Remember guys, all lagging technical indicators like RSI, MACD etc share the same weakness and that is they use information from the past. Nothing wrong with that, if you understand and accept the weakness.

'Real Time' indicators look solely at price action, as that is the only real time data we have available, so think break-out boxes, Volume spread analysis, Rate of Change etc.

Combine both types - add a dose of fundamentals and parallel market analysis and you start to see what is really going on.

Good luck to all and thanks to Pop for the excellent comments.

Nice macman. The mtmv3 is definitely one of the best books I've read. I had not come across it but I find the contents really nice compliments in trading, especially when married with fibs.

C U folks later on in the evening.

Professional Support
The following signs are indicative of professional support:
*A downward trend will already be in progress, and a down-day (or bar) appears, which closes in the middle (or on the high), accompanied by very high volume, whilst the next bar is up.

If the bar closes in the middle (or high), we can surmise that demand is overcoming supply. Buying from professional traders has entered the market and the activity on the previous day (or bar) has been high. On this activity the market has not fallen, so the high activity must have been mostly buying.

Note that the volume must not be excessively high, because excessive volume may swamp the market, which even the professional money cannot absorb.

Remember, you are dealing with professional activity. Low volume is telling you that they are either:
• not interested in buying on any up-move, or
• they are not selling on any down-move.

Have they seen something in the background you may have missed?

Ask yourself, "Why are they not buying or selling on this up-move?" Answer: Because they are bearish or just negative on the market.

Alternatively, you may ask yourself, "Why are they not selling on this down-move?" Answer: Because they are bullish!

I must emphasise that it takes professional money to alter the trend of the market. Professional traders will NOT fight the market. They will duck and weave like a boxer, always ready to take full advantage wherever possible.

To fight the market means you are:
• buying on up-moves when there is supply coming onto the market and
• selling on down-moves when there is no supply.
Both of these tactics are very quick ways to go broke!

The Relationship Between the Cash and the Futures Price
Futures will fluctuate above or below the cash price, but the cash price sets the limits of any move in the futures market, because large dealing houses with low dealing costs will have an established arbitrage channel and their actions will bring the future back in line with the cash.

This process keeps the price movements between the cash and futures markets largely similar.

Sudden movements away from the cash price are usually caused by the activities of the specialists or market-makers. These professionals are trading their own accounts and can see both sides of the market (i.e. the buy and sell orders).

If syndicates are in the process of selling or buying large blocks of shares,
they know these large transactions will have an immediate effect on the market, so they will also trade the futures and option contracts in order to offset or lower risk. This is why the future often seems to move before the cash.