Trade what you see NOT what you expect

I just knew it was you!

AMEN Brother!!!!!!

Over and out guys. Have a great weekend, one and all!

Have a great weekend.

I didn't have that problem I bought a low rider and rode that for most of the time.

finaly sold it when I moved to my parents in Mississippi.

Been back in UK for almost 4 years now

Time flies

Have a good weekend everyone

I'm out of here. Have a great weekend and take some time away from the charts and relax.

Now I need to take my own advice.

Ok Guys I am out of here have a fantastic weekend see you all on Monday

Hey EO you are slacking. You missed it by 15 pips.

Bob said hi to all.......

Looking at my charts, I will be looking for one trade when it presents itself, long or short, I will take her either way.

Now back to Bob....

HOLLA

Thanks bro, trying to get off to a good start and keep it flowing. :nerd:

Long-term trading for me, until school gets out for break and then will be in the trenches with all the great folks in this thread.

HOLLA

And it's only been 3 months for us...image if we were in this one from the Monthly. Came in October 1996, came out February 2000.

You never know......it could happen!

HOLLA

Folks,

Some contribution from me, very simple weekly charts, an "eye opener" for people who know what they are doing (most on this thread do know)...for those who don't, give your brain some exercise to do and see if forex field suits you :-)

Here is a small write up on risk management. Kinda brings home the reasoning behind small precentage risk.. Plus remember if you lose 50% you have to make up 100% to get back to even.

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http://forums.babypips.com/images/icons/icon1.gif On the risky subject of... risk
Life is a fine balance between right and wrong, yin and yang and so on. In the same way, trading requires finding several balances. Second perhaps only to your account balance is, IMO, the level of risk you decide to subject your account to on every trade.

General advice says to not risk more than somewhere around 1-3% per trade. A common mistake I suspect for beginners (I was guilty of it myself in the beginning) was to risk far too much of the account. Doing that, as we all know, is an excellent way of doing real harm to your account when a few trades in a row go against you. Let's not even think about the revenge trading that may follow.

When I grew up a bit trading wise, I realized that how much I'm prepared to risk on a trade has to be defined by how much I'm willing to risk losing, not by dreams of how much I can make if my trade is a winner.

I tried the different levels of risk and calculated what would remain of an account after a series of 5, 10, 15 or 20 consecutive losses. Don't think that could ever happen to you? Think again. At least up to 10 consecutive losses must be expected to occur at some time during the trading career.

This is how it turns out:

1% account risk:
5 losses - 95.0% account balance left
10 losses - 90.4%
15 losses - 86.0%
20 losses - 81.8%

2.5 % account risk:
5 losses - 88.1% account balance left
10 losses - 77.6%
15 losses - 68.4%
20 losses - 60.3%

3 % account risk:
5 losses - 85.8% account balance left
10 losses - 73.7%
15 losses - 63.3%
20 losses - 54.4%

4 % account risk:
5 losses - 81.5% account balance left
10 losses - 66.5%
15 losses - 54.2%
20 losses - 44.2%

5 % account risk:
5 losses - 77.4% account balance left
10 losses - 59.9%
15 losses - 46.3%
20 losses - 35.8%

10 % account risk:
5 losses - 59.0% account balance left
10 losses - 34.9%
15 losses - 20.6%
20 losses - 12.1%

I think these numbers speak for themselves. There's a very good reason to never risk more than 3% of your account and personally when my account balance gets to a happy place, I'll definitely move to 1% risk.
During account buildup I feel that 2.5% is a level which I can feel comfortable with.

I think it's very noteworthy that a string of only 10 consecutive losses with 5% risk reduces your account to only 60% of what it was, and even just five losses in a row melts it to under 80% of original balance.

Leverage isn't the killer. Poor risk management is.

Wher I stole it from http://forums.babypips.com/newbie-is...ading-log.html

Good Afternoon everyone.. It is 12:30 here in Florida on a rainy Saturday.. Guess I am going to do something I told myself I was going to quit doing a bit of negative talk.

I see that someone else has bared their soul for us to see that there is humanity behind the Avatars. I also feel for anyone having devoted the time and energy to really try and learn to trade this or any market. You see from week to week, I make many post and put up charts. Yet I myself am not profitable in my own trading. I always feel a bit of guilt posting because of it. But as I constantlly remind people I am doing it as much for myself as for them. It is my self assigned homework. I view those posts and charts many times as I write them and again after they are posted.

I hope know one feels mislead. I also had stated I feel like a quarterback I know all the plays got the new shiney uniform. But can't hold on to the ball. I feel anyone can and will learn to trade successfully if you give it enough time. That being said not everyone will be able to trade the same as everyone else. You have seen and read about it many times your trading must fit your personality. But that is One great thing about this thread there are many different types of trading going on at the same time. What we need to do is find what fits us as a starting point then you can add to it as you master each.

The first step is to analysis your trades both good and bad. Either right after each trade keeping a log as to what you did right or wrong. as you see it. Write down your entries and adjustments and stops. If you don't see fault ask on the thread when the good traders are in the room. You should be able to start to see a pattern of the trades your taking that work out verses the ones that aren't. There may be nothing wrong with your trades at all some times they don't workout. But after a loss you might not take the next 2 or 3 trades and then after you see those work you take the next one that doesn't. That is the mechanical part if it is your setup take it winning is a mathamatical equation. wins - losses = $$$$ profits. if your setup gives 7 wins out of 10 but you only take 6 the risk is greater you will fail. Your success may only be a matter of not taking a certain setup and concentrating on the ones you win the most on. Then gradually add additonal trades as your view of the action improves.

As EO stated Friday one of the best trades to take is off the 5 ema and stop behind the 10/21. It accures in trending markets and when the price crosses through all the MA's after a turn. You might not get the best entry but it is a safer trade. I am trying to help my sister trade. I have told her time and again. If nothing else just trade away from the MA"s, it is normally with the trend and the precentage to loses is minnium.

The next thing to succeed and my personal white herring. Is trade managemnet. This can be anything from entering to soon or to late , letting stops run, adding to losing trades. or my personal one not letting profitable ones run. For a long time I thought letting stops run was my main problem . But as I really focused on what was happening. yes I might let a trade run a bit the wrong way but it wasn't that bad . It was more the fact That when I could have made a 100 pips or more I took 10 or less. That is my issue. I had never been a long term trader which is a plus when starting to get scalping entries as you are use to holding for nice profits.

I am trying to either scale out of trades or just move my stop. Learning to let the trade run. I am hoping to follow the lead of some more successfull traders to help with the confidence needed to achieve this..
Unfortunatelly my time to succeed is limited as I have to start showing a profit or place my energies else where. a J O B. I thought all I needed was more screen time to succeed I have been on the verge of succeeding for so long. It may be, I don't have the personality for it. But it just fits my lifestyle to a T. I live on a Boat and want to travel no better way to make a livng than this.

But anyway. I don't think anyone should give up. Tackle it as with any problem. Identify what is the real issue. Figure out what would correct that, Then see how you need to adjust to accomplish that goal. But always remember that you have help here on the thread. Just learn to post a chart so you can show what your doing and get quality advice.
I really like Oanda for this reason they have markers they leave on your charts to show your trades. That way your entries and stops are plotted for you.

Also don't feel alone there are others here in the same boat as we are most won't post as they don't want to look like failures. That is silly as we probablly will never see each other. But just carry on and it will come to you.. Not a great quality post but relevent to learning...

Everyone Have a Great Weekend.. Ken

Yes, If you want to stay in the game long enough to become succesful, then you are going to hit a run of losses. You dont want that to wipe you out. I agree 2-3% is a good limit.

interesting thought and what a range to trade .. sell 1.6800 buy 1.6100 .... do that a few time and by the time we come out you will be retired from forex lol

Ok now that is out of the way,, Some better useful stuff.. Lets continue with our Price Action Trading but let's focus on what I like to call immediate price action. We will say this normally accures inside a 4 hr and some times a 1 hr candle. In other words you can a have a price action entry during that time frame. Normally showing up on the 15 Min. chart. Because what can happen we take the first entry get stopped out because of a retest of the area then if we don't take the second or even third trade. We end up missing the big move once the sellers or buyers give up and price does turn back. So we either don't move the stop to soon or if we take profits and cover add back or reenter if we had covered we actually should make money on each retest. If we didn't cover and stop is still in place then that is good too. Just remember that price can come back even spiking a bit lower but as long as it closes above or below the wick of that first trigger candle it is till valid .. Key Word is CLOSE..

Addition from EO:

Ken, don't just be stuck on the one way of going long on her. Notice how the PA on the m15 sent price up. Key way to play is to get in long after the bullish hammer, TP and reverse off the m15 10 targeting the wick of the PA that sent it north to reverse your position there. You've turned the area into about 60 pips worth of profit. Most of the time, as I've discussed and you've shown on your charts, price will go back to where it came from to confirm it's movement. So we take the first long and TP off the m15 10 and reverse our position targeting the PA to reverse again and look to hold that position. We want to see price make higher highs when we get back in long for the hold position to cross the m15 35/50.
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...5&d=1250966441

Excellent post Ken! Very heartfelt and I really want to see you succeed! You know the setups and you know the system very well, no you need to apply it like you said, to fit your personality.

Something that I think many traders in here are having a problem with is trying to pick a cherry seat at the top or bottom. This can be either in the range time on the m15 shooting for the breakout or after the breakout has occurred and tring too soon on pushing price in the other direction. I will tell everyone, picking a top or bottom with minimal draw down is challenging and not for everyone. You don't have to be on the train from the top or bottom, you just need to get on the train once it starts moving. I like what you've told your sister to trade away from the ma's. I think that's a key componet on the m15 to trade away from the ma's once the breakout has occurred and target the higher TF ma's for TP levels. If your trading this way and moving your SL with the trade and TP on appropriate levels, I think you'll see when it's starting to turn. The US Session is a great session to see it turn. Most of the time during the US Session, price will breakout of it's morning range, run to the higher TF ma's or S/R, pause, bounce off the m15 5/10, go back to near the level it came from and get sent back into the ma's. When we see this, we need to recognize that it's time for the turn and reverse our position when we take our final TP.

I don't expect everyone in here to bring in 1000+ pips per week. You don't need that many to be successful. You just need to be in the right trade when it's there. Cash is an excellent position to have at times. Many should probably not try and follow the positions we take because their getting in 10-20 pips after we have and we've already booked some profit and covered. Intraday trading is fast moving, but you don't need to be in every trade all the time. Only the trade that fits your requirements.

Keep up the hard work Ken! You deserve all the success that comes your way my friend!

I think it's very likely we could see this again. History does have a way of repeating itself and if we can all recall the state of our economies in 1996-2000, we might be surprised to see how close it mirrors what we're venturing into.

Good eye brother!