Psych Levels, Pivots, and Trendlines - Resurrected | Page 179 | Forex Factory

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Psych Levels, Pivots, and Trendlines - Resurrected

  • #3,561
  • Aug 20, 2009 2:27am Aug 20, 2009 2:27am
UK data due in an hour
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #3,562
  • Aug 20, 2009 2:34am Aug 20, 2009 2:34am
Quoting Islander
Retrace went to the 61% level / MR1 at 6558 and € held under its 30ema - short cable, small size

Edit: will add when the 550 level / 30ema are broken....
I know we are trying to go naked but I still need some clothes & trends are optional like socks. I have a daily down trend showing from 13/8 and current price is right at this line
  • #3,563
  • Aug 20, 2009 2:45am Aug 20, 2009 2:45am
Quoting Barry Cade
I know we are trying to go naked but I still need some clothes & trends are optional like socks. I have a daily down trend showing from 13/8 and current price is right at this line
LOL - IMO trend lines are too subjective, so I dont use them.....the Pivots and Sweet Spots are sufficient for me.....
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #3,564
  • Aug 20, 2009 2:49am Aug 20, 2009 2:49am
Quoting Islander
Retrace went to the 61% level / MR1 at 6558 and € held under its 30ema - short cable, small size

Edit: will add when the 550 level / 30ema are broken....
Price is now just under these levels, but I'm not yet convinced as it hasnt yet tested the prior low ~ 6535....one of cables favourite numbers.....

Edit: time for one of Karmo's famous patience pills...
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #3,565
  • Aug 20, 2009 3:10am Aug 20, 2009 3:10am
Quoting Islander
Price is now just under these levels, but I'm not yet convinced as it hasnt yet tested the prior low ~ 6535....one of cables favourite numbers.....

Edit: time for one of Karmo's famous patience pills...
Out for a wash.....it looks as if € is going back up and will take cable up with it.......
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #3,566
  • Aug 20, 2009 3:27am Aug 20, 2009 3:27am
Quoting Islander
Out for a wash.....it looks as if € is going back up and will take cable up with it.......
I set up an auto trade when reviewing indices. Should have done a Karmo (is he still about much, his thread is v quiet) or traded live waiting for confirmation & breach of prev low. Saw Euro going back up (btw thanks for tip of watching this), & closed out when 62% fib breached. Grrrr.

Hard work now needed, with patience of course.
  • #3,567
  • Aug 20, 2009 3:34am Aug 20, 2009 3:34am
Didn't sleep well last 2 nights so lets make that the excuse.

Mrs and I talked solidly about ej not looking good for move up but missed both sells that vol and candles for us was a good set up. The first miss was the shooting star with good vol after numerous low vol pushes up. 2nd trade missed for us was the attempt to push up to 134.30 on low vol.

For some reason we were looking at gu the whole time but thats another story.

We were pretty uncomfortable with for us mixed signals from gu this am, we talked about what we expected from ej and when it happened we were daydreaming/looking at gu which we didn't like, go figure.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ej 5 min.gif Size: 19 KB
  • #3,568
  • Aug 20, 2009 3:57am Aug 20, 2009 3:57am
Quoting Vantage
Didn't sleep well last 2 nights so lets make that the excuse.

Mrs and I talked solidly about ej not looking good for move up but missed both sells that vol and candles for us was a good set up. The first miss was the shooting star with good vol after numerous low vol pushes up. 2nd trade missed for us was the attempt to push up to 134.30 on low vol.

For some reason we were looking at gu the whole time but thats another story.

We were pretty uncomfortable with for us mixed signals from gu this am, we talked about what we expected from ej...
Thx for chart. In the past Ive often thought about abandoning GU because of less predictability than others, & losses too frequent. This morning is the same. Mixed messages, even now contradicting EU. So I guess we are doing the same. Keeping to the familiar.

Personally I want to get better at reading market & candle shapes before moving to other currencies. I got distracted this morning by indices, so made a mistake in a trade, so more currencies would increase risk. I read this morning that Malcolmb only trades one, and the originator here, Acumen also trades 1. These guys are good, so specialisation seems to be great idea.

Easy to say, but I would bet that I never stick to that principle. Opportunism rules head.
  • #3,569
  • Aug 20, 2009 4:00am Aug 20, 2009 4:00am
Quoting Barry Cade
Thx for chart. In the past Ive often thought about abandoning GU because of less predictability than others, & losses too frequent. This morning is the same. Mixed messages, even now contradicting EU. So I guess we are doing the same. Keeping to the familiar.

Personally I want to get better at reading market & candle shapes before moving to other currencies. I got distracted this morning by indices, so made a mistake in a trade, so more currencies would increase risk. I read this morning that Malcolmb only trades one, and the originator here,...
Wayne Jackson (jackos forex house of pleasure and pain) said to trade 200 full lots at a time eu only. I'm reminded of another story from someone I totally respect that one of the most successful people he'd met as a trader (also big lots) only did gu 4 hr divergence trades and hugely successful with it.

There is perhaps a lesson in there somewhere.
  • #3,570
  • Aug 20, 2009 4:04am Aug 20, 2009 4:04am
Quoting Vantage
The first miss was the shooting star with good vol after numerous low vol pushes up. 2nd trade missed for us was the attempt to push up to 134.30 on low vol.
Like these. At what point did you enter trades?
  • #3,571
  • Edited 4:28am Aug 20, 2009 4:08am | Edited 4:28am
I think the gu rot this morning started here. 1 min chart. This was perfect for us and for some unknown reason we didn't take, I think we had a couple of phone calls that we took (Mrs V had a family member in hospital and results were coming out, thankfully all will be OK). Anyway gu moving up at the time, tested the 50 level and then moved on, exactly what we want.

Then on the 5 min we eyeballed the trend line (only put up for screenshot) but didn't trade the bounces. Oh yeah as I recall we also said the London open move down was a head fake as it never followed through, we also talked about the upper TL break out.

Thankfully our mantra (that we repeat daily) includes a section that we forgive ourselves easily for mistakes and move onto new opportunities but bugger me thats taking advantage.

Maybe I should just try for a snooze.

I will post some perfect set ups from yesterday just to make me feel a little better. Saving this list of disasters for reference.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gu 1 min.gif Size: 10 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gu 5 min b.gif Size: 17 KB
  • #3,572
  • Aug 20, 2009 4:09am Aug 20, 2009 4:09am
Quoting Vantage
Wayne Jackson (jackos forex house of pleasure and pain) said to trade 200 full lots at a time eu only. I'm reminded of another story from someone I totally respect that one of the most successful people he'd met as a trader (also big lots) only did gu 4 hr divergence trades and hugely successful with it.

There is perhaps a lesson in there somewhere.
This is why fibs work. Self fulfilling market prophecy. Also s/r & psych points.

Actually also much weker but trend lines! Another one on 5 min at 2.10am up through to now. Keeps bouncing off. 12 attempts & it hasnt broken yet. Maybe will this time though.
  • #3,573
  • Aug 20, 2009 4:15am Aug 20, 2009 4:15am
volume on 5 min has seldom breached 600 this morning. Usually hits 900 on heavy trading bars. Indecision all round I guess.
  • #3,574
  • Aug 20, 2009 4:18am Aug 20, 2009 4:18am
From yesterday, OK this does bring on a smile, as close to perfect as it gets. The red lines show the close of hourly hammers and a short while later HL's/test and reject of key levels. Perfect.

Ultimately I did exit too early but good trades none the less.

OK I'm on a break, will return strong as an ox, cheers.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ej y.gif Size: 21 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gu y.gif Size: 20 KB
  • #3,575
  • Aug 20, 2009 4:21am Aug 20, 2009 4:21am
Quoting Barry Cade
Like these. At what point did you enter trades?
Sorry Barry the point was these were trades we missed for whatever reason. We were expecting the moves on ej but focused on gu.
  • #3,576
  • Aug 20, 2009 4:29am Aug 20, 2009 4:29am
Quoting Vantage
Sorry Barry the point was these were trades we missed for whatever reason. We were expecting the moves on ej but focused on gu.
apologies, should have remembered they were set-ups. Lets re-word. Where would you have entered? (my indicator, which I am not yet totally confident of) has a PP under 2nd trade at 134.14 & also close to prev low.
  • #3,577
  • Aug 20, 2009 4:37am Aug 20, 2009 4:37am
Quoting Barry Cade
apologies, should have remembered they were set-ups. Lets re-word. Where would you have entered? (my indicator, which I am not yet totally confident of) has a PP under 2nd trade at 134.14 & also close to prev low.
No problems, 1st one basically 1 pip below close of candle, so 134.44. 2nd one again 1 pip below so 134.22. The evidence of move down was so overwhelming, high and low vol shooting stars and low vol moves up, we were expecting the fall. The WM2 pivot didn't worry us.

Damn I'm getting pee'd off again at this, shoot me now!!!
  • #3,578
  • Aug 20, 2009 4:38am Aug 20, 2009 4:38am
Quoting Vantage
From yesterday, OK this does bring on a smile, as close to perfect as it gets. The red lines show the close of hourly hammers and a short while later HL's/test and reject of key levels. Perfect.

Ultimately I did exit too early but good trades none the less.

OK I'm on a break, will return strong as an ox, cheers.
keep these pinned up in front of you!
  • #3,579
  • Aug 20, 2009 4:49am Aug 20, 2009 4:49am
Quoting Vantage
No problems, 1st one basically 1 pip below close of candle, so 134.44. 2nd one again 1 pip below so 134.22. The evidence of move down was so overwhelming, high and low vol shooting stars and low vol moves up, we were expecting the fall. The WM2 pivot didn't worry us.

Damn I'm getting pee'd off again at this, shoot me now!!!
Thanks

Dont get angry (says Mr Irascible himself!). Just remember you spotted them & there will be lots more. You didnt lose, so your pot is intact for the next win.

Alls quiet now. Even oil has been in a tight range all morning. Time to get on with something more productive (whats the betting it will all now take off).

Catch you later
  • #3,580
  • Aug 20, 2009 4:50am Aug 20, 2009 4:50am
Quoting Barry Cade
keep these pinned up in front of you!
We are focusing so much on trading levels pullbacks in direction of trend as per Islander from 1 min chart, not as agressively as him but that style. Perhaps its still early days. It has been going very well and added profitability to our bread and butter set up hl/lh following 1 hr candle. Throw in a few candle patterns (hammers, shooting stars, morning/evening stars mainly, sorry EV struggle with harami's still) and you're good to go.

Islander and EV take a bow ........ .
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