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  • #4,661
  • Aug 19, 2009 8:52am Aug 19, 2009 8:52am
Quoting Grimweasel
Cheers Craig,
My short nzd/usd is still in play.
Rgds
Grim


Hi Grim,

Would you kindly share your rationale for taking NZD-USD short?

Was it due to Shooting Star of Fri? I took it long on Mon., and got stopped out for a loss overnight today. To have gone short looks counter-trend, to me. Seemed to have cleared the S/R at .6650, too, and was looking north.

I too condidered the SS, but failure to breach the Support @ .6650 sold me on the long, trend trade.

My intent is to consider re-entry long at the close of the Daily, see what unfolds during today's market. Do I need to re-think my analysis? Beating a dead horse?

I'm just trying to understand as much as I can as fast as I can and as thouroughly as I can. Your help here much appreciated. A quick explaination of why you took the opposite side of the trade may help me to look more closely at the most important factors determining decision to trade.

Thanks,

PeterO
  • #4,662
  • Aug 19, 2009 10:00am Aug 19, 2009 10:00am
Quoting petero
Hi Grim,

Would you kindly share your rationale for taking NZD-USD short?

Was it due to Shooting Star of Fri? I took it long on Mon., and got stopped out for a loss overnight today. To have gone short looks counter-trend, to me. Seemed to have cleared the S/R at .6650, too, and was looking north.

I too condidered the SS, but failure to breach the Support @ .6650 sold me on the long, trend trade.

My intent is to consider re-entry long at the close of the Daily, see what unfolds during today's market. Do I need to re-think my analysis? Beating...
Hi Peter,
My main reason for the nzdusd short was my belief that out of all the usd correlated pairs, aud and nzd are the most over 'fair value'. It's a fundemental view backed up with a technical one. The main reason was the indication of a poss top on the failed shooting star on the daily chart (an indication of selling at that level) combined with a second shooting star that really 'stood out' with the wick penetrating clear of all the candles before it.

This is a very low risk trade for me as the pip value is ultra small too. I'm just testing these candles from SR to SR, and whlist it is countertrend I felt the level and topping formation was worthy. It's also an indirect play on indices weakness as I still think (i know, dangerous) that the rally will come unstuck when the big volume players return from their summer hols!

If you went long on the hammer between the 2 S/Stars then that would seem like a good with trend entry but, coming so soon after a S/Star and the BEEB the day before would have been warning enough to me that all well not well in the bulls camp. I'm not at my charts currently but I also believe it was at one of the big Fib levels too?

Hope I have not muddied the waters - just an explination as to why I went short
Trade less and become more profitable!
  • #4,663
  • Aug 19, 2009 10:38am Aug 19, 2009 10:38am
Quoting petero
I'm just trying to understand as much as I can as fast as I can and as thouroughly as I can. Your help here much appreciated. A quick explaination of why you took the opposite side of the trade may help me to look more closely at the most important factors determining decision to trade.

Thanks,

PeterO

No need to rush things Peter! As strat always says read and understand each post before moving on.

I see no PASR to go long from here BTW.
  • #4,664
  • Aug 19, 2009 10:40am Aug 19, 2009 10:40am
Quoting strat

“”A look at the EUR/AUD BOSS shows a clear downtrend””

Who is arguing? I’m not! All I was commenting on was the POOR selection of PASR by Alter.
Well, Im attaching weekly EURAUD chart. If 1.7200 is not good S/R area so Im really not sure what would be....?

Regarding HUF, it is Hungarian forint. The reason why I mess with it is that I thought PASR would work on other pairs as well (not only majors). In this way I would be able to pick better trades. Just my opinion.

Thank you
alter
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: euraudweekly.jpg Size: 120 KB
  • #4,665
  • Edited 11:35am Aug 19, 2009 11:28am | Edited 11:35am
Quoting alter
Well, Im attaching weekly EURAUD chart. If 1.7200 is not good S/R area so Im really not sure what would be....?

Regarding HUF, it is Hungarian forint. The reason why I mess with it is that I thought PASR would work on other pairs as well (not only majors). In this way I would be able to pick better trades. Just my opinion.

Thank you
alter
Alter
I made that mistake once and took a nokusd trade and was almost wiped out straight away by the bid/offer spread of 100pips with IGIndex. Not knocking IG, just be wary of the thinly traded pairs, spreads and the ability of a big volume inject being able to move a market against a position. The big 6 are so widely traded that it's impossible for a single player to move the market in their favour - even the central banks only have a certain power (beyond declaring a country bankrupt, which would then move a market!!!)

I'd get rid of that historical piece of crap at the bottom of your chart too mate - it adds no value and its action will already be in the price!! Believe me, I have been thru all the indicators too - some may find them useful, I never did, and finding this thread (thanks Nicola) has been my saving grace and light at the end of the tunnel (still only just entered that tunnel mind )
Trade less and become more profitable!
  • #4,666
  • Aug 19, 2009 12:28pm Aug 19, 2009 12:28pm
Hi All,

Audcad is forming a broad H&S and pennants on daily, will see what price does around 8950 SR level.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audcad.gif Size: 14 KB
  • #4,667
  • Aug 19, 2009 4:33pm Aug 19, 2009 4:33pm
Quoting Blackeagle
I have attached AUDNZD Daily chart and would like to hear your trade plans based on Strat's teachings.
Hi Blackeagle,

Could you go over what your plan was/would have been for this setup?

Do you frequently trade pairs with this much of a spread (25 pips)?

Thanks.
  • #4,668
  • Aug 19, 2009 4:49pm Aug 19, 2009 4:49pm
Well, I must commend Al Brooks' Book even more. Once you get the basics of this PASR lark every chart sings a song. Almost every BO from a level gets tested at some stage. The same on the 5m as it is on the daily and weekly charts. It's now apparent to me that minor TLs do carry a lot of weight and I can now see why some TL breaks and the subsequent moves away from them suck people in, only to be raped by the market.

I hope to post some charts and reasoning later but only with Strat's permission as some of this stuff goes beyond basic candle pattern recognition. Now, I know that I'm no where near an expert but I know that with about a years study of this book and implementing over years of F12 on the charts - one can truly trade any TF and market using just candles, TLs and only the 20ema!!

I'd imagine this thread, or children thereof in the future, will develop into THE price action classic.

So, back to my point of all BOs being tested. Look again at eurnzd and see that we are now testing the BO from Oct 2008!! The MAJOR up trend is still intact. Remember, a down bar on the daily is an entire trend down day on the 5m, 15m, 1hr and 4hr charts. Sometimes it can be risky trading that down bar on the daily as you are effectively selling the bottom of all those trends!

Still, I'm really looking at this chart as this is a big level and a retest of the Oct 08 BO.
Keep a close eye on this one...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurnzd.gif Size: 39 KB
Trade less and become more profitable!
  • #4,669
  • Edited 5:21pm Aug 19, 2009 5:08pm | Edited 5:21pm
Just looked at the cable chart, and thought 'DC you complete to$$er, why are you looking for entries in a pair that is CLEARLY trading in a tight range??"

I'm not a channel trader and the MAs are all flat?? What a loon!!

The money follows the money and when a pair is flat, it means the big money has gone to find a trending market elsewhere??

No wonder I lost out this week; sometimes we need to come really back-out from our chosen worker TF to gain sight of the big picture!!!

Also, this may mean nothing but...

I reviewed my Sharescope data this evening and although the markets went up slightly today, my selceted portfolios revelaed a possible hidden secret....

All the defensive ETFs rose today ( ishares Gilts, Tips etc) as did the defensive Unit trusts/ OEICs (M&G Recovery, M&G corporate bonds etc)

Last time I noticed this the markets tanked within a few weeks. Looks like some money is moving back into defensive areas ahead of index falls maybe??? Time will tell....
Trade less and become more profitable!
  • #4,670
  • Aug 19, 2009 8:11pm Aug 19, 2009 8:11pm
Strat,

Give us your view on EURUSD - I have been, in contrast to many I know, riding the long side of the chop for some time, and this re-focus sub 1.43 is not suprising - I can spin my web either way at this point, though. Currently, I am prepared to add on appropriate PA on a re-test of 1.42. The TL followers and the weekly pattern traders should be short at this point.
  • #4,671
  • Aug 19, 2009 8:48pm Aug 19, 2009 8:48pm
Quoting Grimweasel
Great post Blackeagle - thanks for the enlightenment

I had often wondered why some daily trades would not work out but now I see why - I have often traded pairs that are heavily conjested with SR, TL etc within a tight range....
“”I still wonder if I'm following too many pairs and some too way too exotic””

“”I want to become a master of say 1-8 pairs over a jack of all pairs 16 plus?””

There is a lot of merit to this, Danny and something I have been considering myself. We get too distracted and lose focus with too many pairs.

The flipside is that beginners need to learn and practice PASR on as many charts as possible.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #4,672
  • Aug 19, 2009 9:06pm Aug 19, 2009 9:06pm
Quoting petero
Hi Grim,

Would you kindly share your rationale for taking NZD-USD short?

Was it due to Shooting Star of Fri? I took it long on Mon., and got stopped out for a loss overnight today. To have gone short looks counter-trend, to me. Seemed to have cleared the S/R at .6650, too, and was looking north.

I too condidered the SS, but failure to breach the Support @ .6650 sold me on the long, trend trade.

My intent is to consider re-entry long at the close of the Daily, see what unfolds during today's market. Do I need to re-think my analysis? Beating...
“”I'm just trying to understand as much as I can as fast as I can and as thoroughly as I can.””

Why? What is the hurry? Are you leaving the planet in a couple of weeks?

As shown by your lack of understanding of BASIC PRICE REVERSAL BARS, your urgency will only empty your account faster.

You obviously have not read every single post, as many times I have written “There is no short cut to trading – it takes thousands and thousands of hours and charts to understand PASR”

You have in front of you a manual for stress free trading longer term time frames. If you cannot be bothered to READ and UNDERSTAND and put in the hard work to LEARN and PRACTICE, no-one on this thread can help you.

If you went skydiving would you just strap on a parachute and jump out of the plane without first taking lessons, reading the instructions and attending safety classes? What you are doing here is jumping out of the plane WITHOUT a parachute.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #4,673
  • Aug 19, 2009 9:24pm Aug 19, 2009 9:24pm
Quoting alter
Well, Im attaching weekly EURAUD chart. If 1.7200 is not good S/R area so Im really not sure what would be....?

Regarding HUF, it is Hungarian forint. The reason why I mess with it is that I thought PASR would work on other pairs as well (not only majors). In this way I would be able to pick better trades. Just my opinion.

Thank you
alter
Alter, if you are trading PASR, why do you need the MACD? What does it tell you that PASR doesn’t?

What it is doing is distracting you and stopping you from learning PASR. As long as you have an indicator on your chart you will not be focused 100% on PASR.

Do you understand what MACD does and how it arrives at the histogram? All it is doing is taking the difference between two EMA moving averages, in your case the 12 and 26 ema. How is the 12 ema compiled? – it takes the PRICE of 12 BARS ago over “x” periods. So you are comparing PRICES of 12 BARS ago with PRICES of 26 BARS ago! What help is that?

If you are that blind and unable to understand PASR then a better visual representation would be to plot the 12 and 26 ema moving averages on your prices and watch the gap between them.

BUT, we already have the 20 and 50 moving averages on our charts – for an entirely different reason.

If you cannot understand PASR and need the crutch of indicators, then my suggestion is to move to one of the many threads here on FF where they trade using indicators.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #4,674
  • Aug 19, 2009 9:29pm Aug 19, 2009 9:29pm
Quoting Grimweasel
Well, I must commend Al Brooks' Book even more. Once you get the basics of this PASR lark every chart sings a song. Almost every BO from a level gets tested at some stage. The same on the 5m as it is on the daily and weekly charts....
You've lost me on this Danny boy! All you have described is basic PRICE ACTION at SUPPORT and RESISTANCE levels. If you understand this, what more needs to be said or am I losing it?
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #4,675
  • Aug 19, 2009 9:36pm Aug 19, 2009 9:36pm
I had that same thought actually - picking the appropriate S/R is one of the challenges, but so long as the PA accompanies the SR and one has a valid exit plan, then things are tradable. The two major markets are looking at that type of thing as we speak actually.
  • #4,676
  • Aug 19, 2009 10:09pm Aug 19, 2009 10:09pm
Quoting Alexandra
Strat,

Give us your view on EURUSD - I have been, in contrast to many I know, riding the long side of the chop for some time, and this re-focus sub 1.43 is not suprising - I can spin my web either way at this point, though. Currently, I am prepared to add on appropriate PA on a re-test of 1.42. The TL followers and the weekly pattern traders should be short at this point.
Your wish is my command our Greek prophetess!

The BOSS is still in its long term uptrend, stalling for the third time at 1.4250ish while playing with the 50% fib retracement.

There is strong support at 1.3950ish from which it is building its next support base. We have had 13 weeks of ranging prices and twice it has refused to drop during its down cycle which it is once again in.

This suggests strength and a move higher to at least psycho 1.4600 or a re-test of 1.4750.

The Worker is fully supporting this as can be seen by prices holding above the support TL established on March 4 and April 22. It has now just moved into its up cycle but of course, is fighting its BOSS cycle so we should expect more price oscillations around the magic 1.4160.

So technically its bullish but funny mental wise, I still can’t see the Chinese letting the $ drop much more – all you have to do is work out the daily loss on $11.4 Trillion to understand why they will jump in sooner or later.

Anyway, just my view and as I said before, I’m useless at crystal ball gazing!



Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd boss.gif Size: 29 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd worker.gif Size: 35 KB
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #4,677
  • Aug 19, 2009 10:20pm Aug 19, 2009 10:20pm
Quoting One14
Hi Blackeagle,

Could you go over what your plan was/would have been for this setup?

Do you frequently trade pairs with this much of a spread (25 pips)?

Thanks.
Since boss and daily closed below 1.2350, you could wait a retracement and then take short with PA.

If you are trading daily tf, spread is not important and it is 14 pips for this pair at Oanda.
  • #4,678
  • Aug 19, 2009 10:27pm Aug 19, 2009 10:27pm
Very clean Strat. My eye to USDCHF supports this view. To me that market has been much easier to read. I am selling as we speak. Excuse the 4 hour inclusion...it can be seen on the daily chart as well. The boss reveals the reason behind the chop very nicely.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: chf.jpg Size: 262 KB
  • #4,679
  • Aug 19, 2009 10:35pm Aug 19, 2009 10:35pm
What's that ancient prophecy - triple tops never hold?
  • #4,680
  • Aug 19, 2009 11:01pm Aug 19, 2009 11:01pm
Since we are viewing your crystal ball (yes, I said it) and discussing cycles.....I do see enough coil in E/J for a 135 test shortly. Time will tell. By all my accounts that market should be at 140. The last time I saw this look, we were at 127.
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