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  • #4,641
  • Aug 18, 2009 10:44am Aug 18, 2009 10:44am
Quoting elitejets
Please do
Thank you. I post just setups that doesnt work. It is not that I question the method, it is just a way I learn much better then by posting winners.
So another 2 setups are on USDHUF BEOB on 12.8. It is with the trend, pullback to the ppz at 194.80 and I think the shape is perfect as well. Similar setup on EURHUF. Charts are attached. What do you think about these setups?

alter
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdhuf.jpg Size: 119 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eurhuf.jpg Size: 113 KB
  • #4,642
  • Aug 18, 2009 1:19pm Aug 18, 2009 1:19pm
Quoting alter
CrudeCraig it is not necessary that the bar has to be at tho top or at the bottom of the trend, it can be also trend continuation pattern. do u think that 1,7200 is not good ppz to looking for a setup(EURAUD)?
alter
Yes your right it can be a trend continuation.

The SS on july 13th was a trend continuation located at a swing high and at a major S/R level 1.8000

The bar you have pointed out is in fact a good shaped SS but its location is poor. There are not any major confluences here to back this trade up.

If you were to play this bar you would have to move your stop to BE ASAP and lock in some profit, but that would not be stress free would it?

Yes i agree that 1.7200 is a good level.

Not sure if i answered your question, hope it helps though.
  • #4,643
  • Aug 18, 2009 1:42pm Aug 18, 2009 1:42pm
Quoting femfam
I know this is not a perfect setup but I could not agree with you and Strat anymore. A look at the EUR/AUD BOSS shows a clear downtrend and price is clearly dancing below the 20ema (this is what I particularly use). To make things clearer, the low of 11/06 candle (1.7145) was broken and now the two pin bars or whatever you want to call them is 'acting' meaning taking 'action' at that level; what else can we call this? PRICE ACTION - correct me if i'm wrong.

Strat, have you forgotten what Dr. Joe said "it keeps going down untill it stops going...

The way i see this chart is that we are moving into a range at this key level and the buyers and sellers are playing a bit of tug o war with price.

I agree with you that i would still be bearish on this pair and this would not be a point to make me exit a short trade but it would definatley not be a trend continuation for me or a place to open a new short trade.
  • #4,644
  • Aug 18, 2009 1:51pm Aug 18, 2009 1:51pm
Quoting alter
Thank you. I post just setups that doesnt work. It is not that I question the method, it is just a way I learn much better then by posting winners.
So another 2 setups are on USDHUF BEOB on 12.8. It is with the trend, pullback to the ppz at 194.80 and I think the shape is perfect as well. Similar setup on EURHUF. Charts are attached. What do you think about these setups?

alter


Hi Alter,

Let me take a stab at this. Good opportunity for others to not only critique your analysis, but my observations of them as well.

First, my platform, IBFX, doesn't have these pairs, or else I would have called them up. You say that they are quite similar, both EUR-HUF and USD-HUF. (I don't even know what a HUF is).

I don't see enough information on the first chart, the USD-HUF, I believe....hard to see. But the thing that grabbed me on the second, the EUR-HUF, on Aug 3-4, you had a double low, the second with a huge bull tail, which had smacked into a Support at 263.70 which had held from Dec. & Jan. 08. In mid Dec. 08, that Support appeared to have been a Resistance level prior to.
So, without a Weekly or Monthly chart information, I surmise that this short trend which you tried to trade was actually a huge long term correction of a bullish trend from before Dec. 08. That Support at 263.70 holds a lot of weight as is still is valid 18 months later and was a Resistance turned Support.
I suggest that to have traded that successfully, you waited till the Support was breached, (which it hasn't), and if not breached, it still is a successful trade because you incurred no loss.

Thanks for the opportunity to look at this, Alter.

OK, everyone....let's hear it.....how far off am I.
I can take it. We're all here helping each other to understand this.

Thanks
  • #4,645
  • Edited 2:58pm Aug 18, 2009 2:55pm | Edited 2:58pm
So, fouled up a cable trade so I thought I'd share it here.

Had a short on the break of the weekly S/Star two weeks ago; left the trade all last week; kinda went sideways and left a small profit. Big trend bar down yesterday so all was well....

Then I 'peeked' at the 4hr chart last night and saw the two hammers at the bottom of that move, even better the 2nd one was an IB.

But, I told myself, I'm not trading the the 4hr TF but the daily - so I left it, even after seeing a new poss microtrend on the 4hr (ie a low, high and higher low) and the break of the IB - irrelevant I told myself. See arrow 1

I had my stop above the down trend line from the daily highs and to be doubly sure I stuck it above the SR level at 1.6560. At yellow text on chart

Got home this evening to see the trade had been stopped out and now we have a BUEB?? And, to make matters worse I got emotionally involved and felt angry for some reason, even thought I thought I was happy with the initial risk last week

So, my question is this....Did I do the right thing, or should I have had a more aggressive stop based on the 4hr chart (all yesterday's gains given back today)? Or should the stop have been left at the high (1.70) of the S/Star??

PS Sorry black chart still - not changed them all yet!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: cable 4hr.gif Size: 47 KB
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  • #4,646
  • Aug 18, 2009 3:58pm Aug 18, 2009 3:58pm
I like that footer actually - it that a new one? We would be better off to make about a dozen trades per year.
  • #4,647
  • Aug 18, 2009 7:08pm Aug 18, 2009 7:08pm
Quoting Naws
How much candles do we need to call a trend? We want to use shooting stars and hammers to get into a main trend after a small retrace trend right? Or else we'd be trading against the trend all the time which is no good
To get back in with the trend, you are looking for these bars at retraces. Nobody knows how long a retrace is, sometimes it could only be 2 or 3 bars sometimes a retrace can turn into a reverse trend BUT if you are confident of your S&R levels, then PA will show you the way
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #4,648
  • Edited 8:13pm Aug 18, 2009 8:00pm | Edited 8:13pm
Speaking of S/R levels, does it suprise anyone that we are sitting here all week?

The question, of course, is which way it will resolve....stops are in order to protect any profits taken on those comments Sunday night....if those pips were not grabbed already. PA continues bullishly mixed in my opinion. By week's end we may have a better glimpse of the likely intermediate term result.
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  • #4,649
  • Aug 18, 2009 9:32pm Aug 18, 2009 9:32pm
Quoting femfam
I know this is not a perfect setup...
... now the two pin bars or whatever you want to call them is 'acting' meaning taking 'action' at that level; what else can we call this? PRICE ACTION - correct me if i'm wrong.
EURAUD is definitely trending downward, no doubt about it. But just to make you think in a different perspective, I'd like to attach EURAUD and EURGBP charts side by side. Look at both charts and can you see the difference?

You see a very clear picture on EURGBP whereas EURAUD is too crowded with S/R lines between 1.70-1.77, almost every 200 pips which is not good for trading daily time frame.

Therefore, we don't need to trade every chart even if you see S/R lines with some PA, we should be selective.

By the way, your first pin bar is not a good PA bar, it shows indecision, nothing more than that.

Hope this helps.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURAUD - Daily.jpg Size: 176 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: EURGBP - Daily.jpg Size: 158 KB
  • #4,650
  • Aug 18, 2009 9:33pm Aug 18, 2009 9:33pm
Quoting Grimweasel
So, fouled up a cable trade so I thought I'd share it here.

Had a short on the break of the weekly S/Star two weeks ago; left the trade all last week; kinda went sideways and left a small profit. Big trend bar down yesterday so all was well....

Then I 'peeked' at the 4hr chart last night and saw the two hammers at the bottom of that move, even better the 2nd one was an IB.

But, I told myself, I'm not trading the the 4hr TF but the daily - so I left it, even after seeing a new poss microtrend on the 4hr (ie a low, high and higher low) and...
Hey Grim,

Just thought i would put my 2 cents in on this as i have really been looking into the whole trailing our trades behind PPZ's strategy.

I am in this trade, but not from the boss chart. I got in on the BEEB on the worker.

Here is a chart of where i placed my stop last night and why.

I think we really need to work on making our trades prove us wrong on the exits to maximize our profits on the big runners like usdcad recently which i missed out on

By placing my stop where it is right above 1.6600 i think that would qualify as proving us wrong.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #4,651
  • Aug 18, 2009 9:51pm Aug 18, 2009 9:51pm
Quoting Grimweasel
Take a look at EurNzd...

Bottoming with a hammer a few days back - I prefer this to euraud.

I'm waiting for the downtrend TL to be broken and retested from above, then I'm looking at long.
Definitely a much better and cleaner chart compared to EURAUD. I believe I have mentioned about this pair somewhere on this thread (may be mistaken, not sure) when we see the PA on first down arrow. Look at the pips gained between the two S/R lines. By the way, taking short position at the first arrow is a perfect stress free Strat setup.

I am also looking for long here, but with another system I have been trading. We may refer to Dr. Joe again when that TL is broken.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURNZD - Daily.jpg Size: 184 KB
  • #4,652
  • Aug 18, 2009 9:56pm Aug 18, 2009 9:56pm
Quoting Grimweasel
Take a look at EurNzd...

Bottoming with a hammer a few days back - I prefer this to euraud.

I'm waiting for the downtrend TL to be broken and retested from above, then I'm looking at long. It's also a play on the indices tanking too (indirectly as nzd, aud and cad should all suffer if they do)
Sorry no chart - at work PC (naught, slap wrist get some work done!!)

I prefer GBPNZD to this....

To those that say these markets are Random......PPSSSSSSSHHHHHHH!!!!

See chart

BTW try out Prorealtime.com then you can get charts at work
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpnzd.png Size: 55 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpnzd_daily.png Size: 50 KB
  • #4,653
  • Aug 18, 2009 10:02pm Aug 18, 2009 10:02pm
Quoting alter
So another 2 setups are on USDHUF BEOB on 12.8. It is with the trend, pullback to the ppz at 194.80 and I think the shape is perfect as well. Similar setup on EURHUF. Charts are attached. What do you think about these setups?

alter
Not sure if your S/R lines are correct (no offence) as I don't have this pair. That may be the main reason. But on EURHUF chart, assuming your S/R lines are correct, you sold into the support zone.
  • #4,654
  • Aug 18, 2009 10:12pm Aug 18, 2009 10:12pm
Quoting Alexandra
Speaking of S/R levels, does it suprise anyone that we are sitting here all week?

The question, of course, is which way it will resolve....stops are in order to protect any profits taken on those comments Sunday night....if those pips were not grabbed already. PA continues bullishly mixed in my opinion. By week's end we may have a better glimpse of the likely intermediate term result.
Agree re. the importance of 94.50 level. We may have that glimpse by checking indices as they are higly correlated with JPY pairs.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: sp500.jpg Size: 84 KB
  • #4,655
  • Aug 18, 2009 10:24pm Aug 18, 2009 10:24pm
Quoting CrudeCraig
I prefer GBPNZD to this....

To those that say these markets are Random......PPSSSSSSSHHHHHHH!!!!

See chart
Definitely a good choice, but we shouldn't forget about the boss bars.
Unfortunately my broker does not offer this pair, maybe I can do a trick here by taking long GBPUSD and short NZDUSD. Good one Crude.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPNZD-Weekly.jpg Size: 126 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPNZD-Weekly-PA.jpg Size: 118 KB
  • #4,656
  • Aug 18, 2009 11:49pm Aug 18, 2009 11:49pm
Quoting Blackeagle
Definitely a good choice, but we shouldn't forget about the boss bars.
Unfortunately my broker does not offer this pair, maybe I can do a trick here by taking long GBPUSD and short NZDUSD. Good one Crude.
Very good point about the boss chart, I did take note of that. The more conservative way of entering this would be if we get a monthly hammer and play the break.
  • #4,657
  • Aug 19, 2009 12:52am Aug 19, 2009 12:52am
Quoting CrudeCraig
Hey Grim,

Just thought i would put my 2 cents in on this as i have really been looking into the whole trailing our trades behind PPZ's strategy.

I am in this trade, but not from the boss chart. I got in on the BEEB on the worker.

Here is a chart of where i placed my stop last night and why.

I think we really need to work on making our trades prove us wrong on the exits to maximize our profits on the big runners like usdcad recently which i missed out on

By placing my stop where it is right above 1.6600 i think that would qualify...
Cheers Craig,
Seems I was a little too tight with the stop, and I see it has put in a 4hr S/Star - one could trade the 4hr chart between that TL and the SR level and profited a good sum yesterday, but like I said, my entry was on the daily so I needed to stick with it - Interestingly, it was only cable that moved that much against the dollar yesterday. All the money was chasing the pound it seemed; must have been the CPI news. My short nzd/usd is still in play.
Rgds
Grim
Trade less and become more profitable!
  • #4,658
  • Aug 19, 2009 4:38am Aug 19, 2009 4:38am
Quoting femfam
I know this is not a perfect setup but I could not agree with you and Strat anymore. A look at the EUR/AUD BOSS shows a clear downtrend and price is clearly dancing below the 20ema (this is what I particularly use). To make things clearer, the low of 11/06 candle (1.7145) was broken and now the two pin bars or whatever you want to call them is 'acting' meaning taking 'action' at that level; what else can we call this? PRICE ACTION - correct me if i'm wrong.

Strat, have you forgotten what Dr. Joe said "it keeps going down untill it stops going...
“”I know this is not a perfect setup””

Right, its NOT – so why mess with a low risk trade when there are other pairs with better opportunities?

“”A look at the EUR/AUD BOSS shows a clear downtrend””

Who is arguing? I’m not! All I was commenting on was the POOR selection of PASR by Alter.

“”and now the two pin bars or whatever you want to call them is 'acting' meaning taking 'action' at that level; what else can we call this? PRICE ACTION - correct me if i'm wrong.””

This is NOT PASR that is being taught on this thread so stop kidding yourself!

“”Strat, have you forgotten what Dr. Joe said "it keeps going down untill it stops going down". To me, this is simply a trend continuation pattern - downtrend - untill the trend fails.””

Who is arguing? I’m not! All I was commenting on was the POOR selection of PASR by Alter.

OK, smart ass, since Dr. Joe is my inspiration and posthumous mentor, do you really think I could forget anything he told me?

“”It took a lot of nerves to disagree with Strat””

I have no idea what you have found to disagree with me on. Who is arguing? I’m not! All I was commenting on was the POOR selection of PASR by Alter.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #4,659
  • Aug 19, 2009 4:46am Aug 19, 2009 4:46am
Quoting alter
Thank you. I post just setups that doesnt work. It is not that I question the method, it is just a way I learn much better then by posting winners.
So another 2 setups are on USDHUF BEOB on 12.8. It is with the trend, pullback to the ppz at 194.80 and I think the shape is perfect as well. Similar setup on EURHUF. Charts are attached. What do you think about these setups?

alter
I have no idea what "HUF" is nor do I want to know. Whatever it is, it has low liquidity compared to the majors.

Why do you want to mess with exotic pairs when you have more liquidity and better PASR on the majors?
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #4,660
  • Aug 19, 2009 6:01am Aug 19, 2009 6:01am
Quoting Blackeagle
EURAUD is definitely trending downward, no doubt about it. But just to make you think in a different perspective, I'd like to attach EURAUD and EURGBP charts side by side. Look at both charts and can you see the difference?

You see a very clear picture on EURGBP whereas EURAUD is too crowded with S/R lines between 1.70-1.77, almost every 200 pips which is not good for trading daily time frame.

Therefore, we don't need to trade every chart even if you see S/R lines with some PA, we should be selective.

By the way, your first pin bar is not...
Great post Blackeagle - thanks for the enlightenment

I had often wondered why some daily trades would not work out but now I see why - I have often traded pairs that are heavily conjested with SR, TL etc within a tight range. The secret is to aviod them and find a less conjested pair as your analysis points out.

I still wonder if I'm follwowing too many pairs and some too way too exotic. Does audyen belong to the overnight (UK) session? Why try and trade a pair that sits outside our UK timezone?(ie most of the action happens when we are asleep)
Again, cable and gbpyen seem to be beasts that require a lot of study and are very twitchy. Look at a monthly cable chart - where is the trend there??

The question is which pairs I wonder should we stick to on this thread to learn the basics of PASR? Which pairs trade as well and technically as oil did last year, respecting SR and fib levels??

I want to become a master of say 1-8 pairs over a jack of all pairs 16 plus?

Looks like eurgbp may be a starter for 10 - I also like usdcad - she traders very well in PASR terms too.

usdhuf?? What the hell is that?? LOL
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