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  • #132,521
  • Aug 18, 2009 4:46am Aug 18, 2009 4:46am
Quoting siobi
highest at 1.4139... not yet up to 1.4150.....

hm.... according to to my 1H chart, the priceshould be bounce up to 1.4150 in a sudden, then it starts the drop before the US open.....

PS: Asia + london zone both opening high, lets see what happen for US open later on....

note:
shanghai +1.4%
shengzhen +0.9%
Hong kong + 1.23%

all looking fine for China share.

drop
japan, newz, Australia, london, german, us

gold and gas also drop.

this shows good reason why Asia market EUR dropping...
when london open, market drops at london + EUR zone,...
Good call siobi. My toughts were exactly the same, so first I put a hedge on my shorts + some position to 1.4138 and 48 and than I got my short order filled at 1.4153 (just 1 pip below the 50 fib). and I just LOVED it when the price jumped and touched the 50 fib to the pip!

hope your forecast is correct as I am playing the same scenario
Riding the Dragon....
  • #132,522
  • Aug 18, 2009 4:57am Aug 18, 2009 4:57am
Quoting Atlast
Any fundamental traders here, let's rumble.I'm bored.:nerd:
What do you think about midday's fund news releases of US...My guess is they'll give the downtrend I'm waiting for...What do you think?
  • #132,523
  • Aug 18, 2009 5:00am Aug 18, 2009 5:00am
Quoting Farstrider
Good call siobi. My toughts were exactly the same, so first I put a hedge on my shorts + some position to 1.4138 and 48 and than I got my short order filled at 1.4153 (just 1 pip below the 50 fib). and I just LOVED it when the price jumped and touched the 50 fib to the pip!

hope your forecast is correct as I am playing the same scenario
glad to hear that.

happy pip hunting. I got to go...... good luck everyone... 1.4090. PROMISED...
  • #132,524
  • Aug 18, 2009 5:03am Aug 18, 2009 5:03am
Quoting orangeRANGE
We are downtrending now...and as per stochastic signal, TC to the dowside move should be around this area (see rectangular)..

Any comment?

Note:
365EMA < Price < 8EMA < 200SMA < 21EMA < 89SMA < 50SMA
Here we go now...see the price already go into the rectangular area...and I am still favouring to SHORT today...Who want to believe me now? (beside myself)

Note:
I also anticipating the price could go as high as somewhere around 50SMA
(see ellipse area)...depends on how the US market do later today...

Any comment?
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  • #132,525
  • Edited 5:09am Aug 18, 2009 5:07am | Edited 5:09am
Quoting maurofx
What do you think about midday's fund news releases of US...My guess is they'll give the downtrend I'm waiting for...What do you think?
The stock market has been fuelled by the free instutional money, funds. Seasonals show a strong tendency for August to top out, and in fact hold up till the end of August. Have a look at last article I posted on friday. Have a look at seasonal chart also, and also conside the price of oil. You will see how last week there I gave a big clue to making some good money in the stock market, and the Euro.
There is a good articel in FT on "Oil is the market crystal ball"
"EM Tcentral bank responses matter more to oil prices than US Federal Reserve policy. Our economics team believes that severe monetary policy tightening in EMs such as China is unlikely in the near term. Inevitably, the gap between money and oil supply will grow again."
"We do not believe oil prices will move sustainably above $80 a barrel this year, a level that could put the economic recovery in OECD countries at risk."
  • #132,526
  • Aug 18, 2009 5:10am Aug 18, 2009 5:10am
I don't know. I often base my trading decisions on daily/weekly/monthly pivots, but it looks like PA doesn't care about them much recently. I think I throw away this levels from my chart for the time being. Let's see if this will improve my trading. I lost 100 pips in last few days, mainly because of these damn pivots. At least it's not my fault.
  • #132,527
  • Aug 18, 2009 5:13am Aug 18, 2009 5:13am
Quoting orangeRANGE
IMO, bear flag is in the making. Rebounce to 1.4153 ish (fib 61.8%) for the next TC to the dowside.

The similar pattern in the previous move (see ellipses). Hopefully the history repeats.

Any comment?
It's already rebounce up to fib 61.8% for now...the pattern is likely to repeat itself...well...I hope so....
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  • #132,528
  • Aug 18, 2009 5:22am Aug 18, 2009 5:22am
Quoting T.E.Lawrence
I don't know. I often base my trading decisions on daily/weekly/monthly pivots, but it looks like PA doesn't care about them much recently. I think I throw away this levels from my chart for the time being. Let's see if this will improve my trading. I lost 100 pips in last few days, mainly because of these damn pivots. At least it's not my fault.
You throw away your system based on 1 losing day. keep doing tht and you will never find a good system. It's not the pivots giving you the wrong idea, it's your trade management. and sorry to give it straight, but it is your fault. Learn to lose, then you win. That's why most fail. Have a look at my methodology, if you find yourslef holding the wrong ticket, get off next stop. Look at any chart any day and you will see the probbilities are heavily in your favour to get another entry.
  • #132,529
  • Aug 18, 2009 5:23am Aug 18, 2009 5:23am
yay i am not stoped out .......4155 still rock solid ..anyway it may look shy now but it tend to do that before major decision ... 4000 ..be or not be reaction is gona be strong both sides so buckle up & enjoy the ride north or south dont care as long its green ....short bias atm
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  • #132,530
  • Aug 18, 2009 5:25am Aug 18, 2009 5:25am
Quoting orangeRANGE
It's already rebounce up to fib 61.8% for now...the pattern is likely to repeat itself...well...I hope so....
isnt your fibo upside down.. as it supposed to be?
  • #132,531
  • Aug 18, 2009 5:37am Aug 18, 2009 5:37am
Quoting Atlast
You will see how last week there I gave a big clue to making some good money in the stock market, and the Euro.
For your point of view the combination between oil price and the stock market explained the reversal form 1.4442 that we hace 2 weeks ago??
  • #132,532
  • Aug 18, 2009 5:40am Aug 18, 2009 5:40am
Quoting Atlast
You throw away your system based on 1 losing day. keep doing tht and you will never find a good system. It's not the pivots giving you the wrong idea, it's your trade management. and sorry to give it straight, but it is your fault. Learn to lose, then you win. That's why most fail. Have a look at my methodology, if you find yourslef holding the wrong ticket, get off next stop. Look at any chart any day and you will see the probbilities are heavily in your favour to get another entry.
I said 'for the time being'. I'm not finished with good 'ol pivots. Jeeeeeeeeez!

And no, it's not my fault - it's theirs! I'm always right goddamnit! There's something really wrong with the market right now! And never question my trading strategy!

You Must Respect My Authoritah!


http://media.southparkstudios.com/me...ed_cartman.gif
  • #132,533
  • Aug 18, 2009 5:56am Aug 18, 2009 5:56am
Quoting learntowin
IMO,

1.4050 was too Strong and looks hard to be broken

I dont expect it can get lower

TKS
Yesterday,

USDX took all of its last breath to go up to 79.51

Now it looks like too weak and has no power to go up
  • #132,534
  • Aug 18, 2009 6:02am Aug 18, 2009 6:02am
Quoting maurofx
For your point of view the combination between oil price and the stock market explained the reversal form 1.4442 that we hace 2 weeks ago??
oil prices correlated with the US dollar, but can be a crystal ball for stock market. Often you will see here discussions about oil prices, but mostly related to the US dollar. What many forget is the US dollar correlated with the stock market, and in fact, there is an inverse relationship between oil and stock market price such that there is a very large effect when oil increases 50 -100% annually. Higher oil price, means higher production cost and transportation costs.

The stock market reversal coincided with seasonal tendencies plus the hyper flow of money into risk assets. The market had gotten too far ahead, not supported by fundamentals, but extreme sentiment. When sentiment are at an extreme, for example only 3% were bearing at the top, we get a reversal.
Read the article again.
"The rise in energy prices in the third quarter of 2008 and subsequent collapse in credit markets ultimately forced world economic growth into negative territory, pushing down industrial activity and driving up unemployment."
Now look where oil price topped out, and look when stock market topped.
Beware of fundamentals for they drive the market. Fundamanetals change sentiment. This is especially important as we approach extremes, that's why you normally find me discussing fundies near extremes and not usually at other times.
  • #132,535
  • Aug 18, 2009 6:04am Aug 18, 2009 6:04am
Quoting T.E.Lawrence
I said 'for the time being'. I'm not finished with good 'ol pivots. Jeeeeeeeeez!

I'm always right goddamnit!
You Must Respect My Authoritah!


http://media.southparkstudios.com/me...ed_cartman.gif

respect.
  • #132,536
  • Aug 18, 2009 6:13am Aug 18, 2009 6:13am
seriously hate the hours before big news.
bores me!
  • #132,537
  • Aug 18, 2009 6:20am Aug 18, 2009 6:20am
Quoting Atlast
Now look where oil price topped out, and look when stock market topped..
There's an incredible correlation between the charts...just a little delay in the effect, but very strong R2 or correlation. You've just gave me another important variable to monitor. I really apreciate the time you took to explain me this effect...Thanks a lot!!
  • #132,538
  • Aug 18, 2009 6:25am Aug 18, 2009 6:25am
Quoting Atlast
The stock market reversal coincided with seasonal tendencies plus the hyper flow of money into risk assets. The market had gotten too far ahead, not supported by fundamentals, but extreme sentiment. When sentiment are at an extreme, for example only 3% were bearing at the top, we get a reversal.
In march, only 3% where bullish, and the stock market started rocketing. According to the NY Bullish Sentiment Index, currently only 4 to 5% of investors are bearish. Guess what's gooing to come

See here for a chart dating 2 weeks back
  • #132,539
  • Aug 18, 2009 6:25am Aug 18, 2009 6:25am
ermm .....guys u have gaps on charts ..or its just me & beer ??
  • #132,540
  • Aug 18, 2009 6:29am Aug 18, 2009 6:29am
Quoting vanyxster
ermm .....guys u have gaps on charts ..or its just me & beer ??
no gaps here. Where are yours.
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